Recent shifts in the geographic distribution of marine species have been linked to shifts in preferred thermal habitats. These shifts in distribution have already posed challenges for living marine ...resource management, and there is a strong need for projections of how species might be impacted by future changes in ocean temperatures during the 21st century. We modeled thermal habitat for 686 marine species in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans using long-term ecological survey data from the North American continental shelves. These habitat models were coupled to output from sixteen general circulation models that were run under high (RCP 8.5) and low (RCP 2.6) future greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21st century to produce 32 possible future outcomes for each species. The models generally agreed on the magnitude and direction of future shifts for some species (448 or 429 under RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6, respectively), but strongly disagreed for other species (116 or 120 respectively). This allowed us to identify species with more or less robust predictions. Future shifts in species distributions were generally poleward and followed the coastline, but also varied among regions and species. Species from the U.S. and Canadian west coast including the Gulf of Alaska had the highest projected magnitude shifts in distribution, and many species shifted more than 1000 km under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Following a strong mitigation scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement would likely produce substantially smaller shifts and less disruption to marine management efforts. Our projections offer an important tool for identifying species, fisheries, and management efforts that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts.
The geographic distributions of marine species are changing rapidly, with leading range edges following climate poleward, deeper, and in other directions and trailing range edges often contracting in ...similar directions. These shifts have their roots in fine-scale interactions between organisms and their environment-including mosaics and gradients of temperature and oxygen-mediated by physiology, behavior, evolution, dispersal, and species interactions. These shifts reassemble food webs and can have dramatic consequences. Compared with species on land, marine species are more sensitive to changing climate but have a greater capacity for colonization. These differences suggest that species cope with climate change at different spatial scales in the two realms and that range shifts across wide spatial scales are a key mechanism at sea. Additional research is needed to understand how processes interact to promote or constrain range shifts, how the dominant responses vary among species, and how the emergent communities of the future ocean will function.
As a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, marine species on continental shelves around the world are rapidly shifting deeper and poleward. However, whether these shifts deeper and poleward ...will allow species to access more, less, or equivalent amounts of continental shelf area and associated critical habitats remains unclear. By examining the proportion of seabed area at a range of depths for each large marine ecosystem (LME), we found that shelf area declined monotonically for 19% of LMEs examined. However, the majority exhibited a greater proportion of shelf area in mid‐depths or across several depth ranges. By comparing continental shelf area across 2° latitudinal bands, we found that all coastlines exhibit multiple instances of shelf area expansion and contraction, which have the potential to promote or restrict poleward movement of marine species. Along most coastlines, overall shelf habitat increases or exhibits no significant change moving towards the poles. The exception is the Southern West Pacific, which experiences an overall loss of area with increasing latitude. Changes in continental shelf area availability across latitudes and depths are likely to affect the number of species local ecosystems can support. These geometric analyses help identify regions of conservation priority and ecological communities most likely to face attrition or expansion due to variations in available area
Continental shelves provide critical habitat for a diverse array of marine species. There is no general rule for how availability of these essential habitats vary across spaceinstead, there is tremendous variability in continental shelf area across latitudes and depths that species will encounter while seeking more suitable environmental conditions. We highlight regions where we may expect increased area to facilitate species range shifts and where we expect decreased area to restrict species range shifts.
Rapid climate changes are currently driving substantial reorganizations of marine ecosystems around the world. A key question is how these changes will alter the provision of ecosystem services from ...the ocean, particularly from fisheries. To answer this question, we need to understand not only the ecological dynamics of marine systems, but also human adaptation and feedbacks between humans and the rest of the natural world. In this review, we outline what we have learned from research primarily in continental shelf ecosystems and fishing communities of North America. Key findings are that marine animals are highly sensitive to warming and are responding quickly to changes in water temperature, and that such changes are often happening faster than similar processes on land. Changes in species distributions and productivity are having substantial impacts on fisheries, including through changing catch compositions and longer distances traveled for fishing trips. Conflicts over access to fisheries have also emerged as species distributions are no longer aligned with regulations or catch allocations. These changes in the coupled natural‐human system have reduced the value of ecosystem services from some fisheries and risk doing so even more in the future. Going forward, substantial opportunities for more effective fisheries management and operations, marine conservation, and marine spatial planning are likely possible through greater consideration of climate information over time‐scales from years to decades.
Rapid climate changes are currently driving substantial reorganizations of marine ecosystems around the world. Changes in species distributions and productivity are having substantial impacts on fisheries, including through changing catch compositions and longer distances traveled for fishing trips. Going forward, substantial opportunities for more effective fisheries management and operations, marine conservation, and marine spatial planning are likely possible through greater consideration of climate information over time‐scales from years to decades.
ABSTRACT
Understanding the dynamics of species range edges in the modern era is key to addressing fundamental biogeographic questions about abiotic and biotic drivers of species distributions. Range ...edges are where colonization and extirpation processes unfold, and so these dynamics are also important to understand for effective natural resource management and conservation. However, few studies to date have analyzed time series of range edge positions in the context of climate change, in part because range edges are difficult to detect. We first quantified positions for 165 range edges of marine fishes and invertebrates from three U.S. continental shelf regions using up to five decades of survey data and a spatiotemporal model to account for sampling and measurement variability. We then analyzed whether those range edges maintained their edge thermal niche—the temperatures found at the range edge position—over time. A large majority of range edges (88%) maintained either summer or winter temperature extremes at the range edge over the study period, and most maintained both (76%), although not all of those range edges shifted in space. However, we also found numerous range edges—particularly poleward edges and edges in the region that experienced the most warming—that did not shift at all, shifted further than predicted by temperature alone, or shifted opposite the direction expected, underscoring the multiplicity of factors that drive changes in range edge positions. This study suggests that range edges of temperate marine species have largely maintained the same edge thermal niche during periods of rapid change and provides a blueprint for testing whether and to what degree species range edges track temperature in general.
Using decades of survey data from three North American marine regions, we tested whether marine species’ range edges maintained constant summer or winter temperatures over time. Of 165 range edges, 88% stayed within the same summer or winter temperatures (or both), suggesting that marine range edges may be tracking their thermal niches.
Asymmetries in responses to climate change have the potential to alter important predator–prey interactions, in part by altering the location and size of spatial refugia for prey. We evaluated the ...effect of ocean warming on interactions between four important piscivores and four of their prey in the U.S. Northeast Shelf by examining species overlap under historical conditions (1968–2014) and with a doubling in CO2. Because both predator and prey shift their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions, the net impact of warming or cooling on predator–prey interactions was not determined a priori from the range extent of either predator or prey alone. For Atlantic cod, an historically dominant piscivore in the region, we found that both historical and future warming led to a decline in the proportion of prey species’ range it occupied and caused a potential reduction in its ability to exert top‐down control on these prey. In contrast, the potential for overlap of spiny dogfish with prey species was enhanced by warming, expanding their importance as predators in this system. In sum, the decline in the ecological role for cod that began with overfishing in this ecosystem will likely be exacerbated by warming, but this loss may be counteracted by the rise in dominance of other piscivores with contrasting thermal preferences. Functional diversity in thermal affinity within the piscivore guild may therefore buffer against the impact of warming on marine ecosystems, suggesting a novel mechanism by which diversity confers resilience.
The degree to which warming might lead to changes in the intensity of interactions among species pairs in marine ecosystems has largely been untested. We find that warming‐induced declines in overlap between cod and prey create spatial refugia that may limit the potential for cod to exert top‐down control of prey populations. However, warming enhances the potential ecological importance of spiny dogfish, resulting in a reshuffling in the identity of the dominant piscivore. Changes in spatial overlap between key species in an ecosystem may serve as an early warning of future climate impacts on large marine ecosystems and a useful community‐level complement to recent species‐level assessments of climate. Diversity in thermal sensitivity within predator guilds may buffer the cascading consequences of warming on prey populations, suggesting a novel mechanism by which diversity confers resilience.
Species distribution models (SDMs) are a common approach to describing species’ space‐use and spatially‐explicit abundance. With a myriad of model types, methods and parameterization options ...available, it is challenging to make informed decisions about how to build robust SDMs appropriate for a given purpose. One key component of SDM development is the appropriate parameterization of covariates, such as the inclusion of covariates that reflect underlying processes (e.g. abiotic and biotic covariates) and covariates that act as proxies for unobserved processes (e.g. space and time covariates). It is unclear how different SDMs apportion variance among a suite of covariates, and how parameterization decisions influence model accuracy and performance. To examine trade‐offs in covariation parameterization in SDMs, we explore the attribution of spatiotemporal and environmental variation across a suite of SDMs. We first used simulated species distributions with known environmental preferences to compare three types of SDM: a machine learning model (boosted regression tree), a semi‐parametric model (generalized additive model) and a spatiotemporal mixed‐effects model (vector autoregressive spatiotemporal model, VAST). We then applied the same comparative framework to a case study with three fish species (arrowtooth flounder, pacific cod and walleye pollock) in the eastern Bering Sea, USA. Model type and covariate parameterization both had significant effects on model accuracy and performance. We found that including either spatiotemporal or environmental covariates typically reproduced patterns of species distribution and abundance across the three models tested, but model accuracy and performance was maximized when including both spatiotemporal and environmental covariates in the same model framework. Our results reveal trade‐offs in the current generation of SDM tools between accurately estimating species abundance, accurately estimating spatial patterns, and accurately quantifying underlying species–environment relationships. These comparisons between model types and parameterization options can help SDM users better understand sources of model bias and estimate error.
Concerns over fishing impacts on marine populations and ecosystems have intensified the need to improve ocean management. One increasingly popular market-based instrument for ecological stewardship ...is the use of certification and eco-labeling programs to highlight sustainable fisheries with low environmental impacts. The Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) is the most prominent of these programs. Despite widespread discussions about the rigor of the MSC standards, no comprehensive analysis of the performance of MSC-certified fish stocks has yet been conducted. We compared status and abundance trends of 45 certified stocks with those of 179 uncertified stocks, finding that 74% of certified fisheries were above biomass levels that would produce maximum sustainable yield, compared with only 44% of uncertified fisheries. On average, the biomass of certified stocks increased by 46% over the past 10 years, whereas uncertified fisheries increased by just 9%. As part of the MSC process, fisheries initially go through a confidential pre-assessment process. When certified fisheries are compared with those that decline to pursue full certification after pre-assessment, certified stocks had much lower mean exploitation rates (67% of the rate producing maximum sustainable yield vs. 92% for those declining to pursue certification), allowing for more sustainable harvesting and in many cases biomass rebuilding. From a consumer's point of view this means that MSC-certified seafood is 3-5 times less likely to be subject to harmful fishing than uncertified seafood. Thus, MSC-certification accurately identifies healthy fish stocks and conveys reliable information on stock status to seafood consumers.
Species richness has long been used as an indicator of ecosystem functioning and health. Global richness is declining, but it is unclear whether sub‐global trends differ. Regional trends are ...especially understudied, with most focused on island regions where richness is strongly impacted by novel colonisations. We addressed this knowledge gap by testing for multi‐decade trends in species richness in nine open marine regions around North America (197 region‐years) while accounting for imperfect observations and grounding our findings in species‐level range dynamics. We found positive richness trends in eight of nine regions, four of which were statistically significant. Species' range sizes generally contracted pre‐extinction and expanded post‐colonisation, but the ranges of transient species expanded over the long‐term, slowly increasing their regional retention and driving increasing richness. These results provide more evidence that sub‐global richness trends are stable or increasing, and highlight the utility of range size for understanding richness dynamics.
Background
Studies that attempt to measure shifts in species distributions often consider a single species in isolation. However, understanding changes in spatial overlap between predators and their ...prey might provide deeper insight into how species redistribution affects food web dynamics.
Predator–prey overlap metrics
Here, we review a suite of 10 metrics range overlap, area overlap, the local index of collocation (Pianka's O), Hurlbert's index, biomass‐weighted overlap, asymmetrical alpha, Schoener's D, Bhattacharyya's coefficient, the global index of collocation and the AB ratio that describe how two species overlap in space, using concepts such as binary co‐occurrence, encounter rates, spatial niche similarity, spatial independence, geographical similarity and trophic transfer. We describe the specific ecological insights that can be gained using each overlap metric, in order to determine which is most appropriate for describing spatial predator–prey interactions for different applications.
Simulation and case study
We use simulated predator and prey distributions to demonstrate how the 10 metrics respond to variation in three types of predator–prey interactions: changing spatial overlap between predator and prey, changing predator population size and changing patterns of predator aggregation in response to prey density. We also apply these overlap metrics to a case study of a predatory fish (arrowtooth flounder, Atheresthes stomias) and its prey (juvenile walleye pollock, Gadus chalcogrammus) in the Eastern Bering Sea, AK, USA. We show how the metrics can be applied to understand spatial and temporal variation in the overlap of species distributions in this rapidly changing Arctic ecosystem.
Conclusions
Using both simulated and empirical data, we provide a roadmap for ecologists and other practitioners to select overlap metrics to describe particular aspects of spatial predator–prey interactions. We outline a range of research and management applications for which each metric may be suited.
PDF
