The reduction of systematic errors is a continuing challenge for model development. Feedbacks and compensating errors in climate models often make finding the source of a systematic error difficult. ...In this paper, it is shown how model development can benefit from the use of the same model across a range of temporal and spatial scales. Two particular systematic errors are examined: tropical circulation and precipitation distribution, and summer land surface temperature and moisture biases over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Each of these errors affects the model performance on time scales ranging from a few days to several decades. In both cases, the characteristics of the long-time-scale errors are found to develop during the first few days of simulation, before any large-scale feedbacks have taken place. The ability to compare the model diagnostics from the first few days of a forecast, initialized from a realistic atmospheric state, directly with observations has allowed physical deficiencies in the physical parameterizations to be identified that, when corrected, lead to improvements across the full range of time scales. This study highlights the benefits of a seamless prediction system across a wide range of time scales.
Sedentary behaviour is a public health concern that requires surveillance and epidemiological research. For such large scale studies, self-report tools are a pragmatic measurement solution. A large ...number of self-report tools are currently in use, but few have been validated against an objective measure of sedentary time and there is no comparative information between tools to guide choice or to enable comparison between studies. The aim of this study was to provide a systematic comparison, generalisable to all tools, of the validity of self-report measures of sedentary time against a gold standard sedentary time objective monitor.
Cross sectional data from three cohorts (N = 700) were used in this validation study. Eighteen self-report measures of sedentary time, based on the TAxonomy of Self-report SB Tools (TASST) framework, were compared against an objective measure of postural sitting (activPAL) to provide information, generalizable to all existing tools, on agreement and precision using Bland-Altman statistics, on criterion validity using Pearson correlation, and on data loss.
All self-report measures showed poor accuracy compared with the objective measure of sedentary time, with very wide limits of agreement and poor precision (random error > 2.5 h). Most tools under-reported total sedentary time and demonstrated low correlations with objective data. The type of assessment used by the tool, whether direct, proxy, or a composite measure, influenced the measurement characteristics. Proxy measures (TV time) and single item direct measures using a visual analogue scale to assess the proportion of the day spent sitting, showed the best combination of precision and data loss. The recall period (e.g. previous week) had little influence on measurement characteristics.
Self-report measures of sedentary time result in large bias, poor precision and low correlation with an objective measure of sedentary time. Choice of tool depends on the research context, design and question. Choice can be guided by this systematic comparative validation and, in the case of population surveillance, it recommends to use a visual analog scale and a 7 day recall period. Comparison between studies and improving population estimates of average sedentary time, is possible with the comparative correction factors provided.
The Transpose-Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) is an international model intercomparison project in which climate models are run in “weather forecast mode.” The Transpose-AMIP II ...experiment is run alongside phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and allows processes operating in climate models to be evaluated, and the origin of climatological biases to be explored, by examining the evolution of the model from a state in which the large-scale dynamics, temperature, and humidity structures are constrained through use of common analyses.
The Transpose-AMIP II experimental design is presented. The project requests participants to submit a comprehensive set of diagnostics to enable detailed investigation of the models to be performed. An example of the type of analysis that may be undertaken using these diagnostics is illustrated through a study of the development of cloud biases over the Southern Ocean, a region that is problematic for many models. Several models share a climatological bias for too little reflected shortwave radiation from cloud across the region. This is found to mainly occur behind cold fronts and/or on the leading side of transient ridges and to be associated with more stable lower-tropospheric profiles. Investigation of a case study that is typical of the bias and associated meteorological conditions reveals the models to typically simulate cloud that is too optically and physically thin with an inversion that is too low. The evolution of the models within the first few hours suggests that these conditions are particularly sensitive and a positive feedback can develop between the thinning of the cloud layer and boundary layer structure.
Hundreds of millions of people worldwide are infected with the whipworm Trichuris trichiura. Novel treatments are urgently needed as current drugs, such as albendazole, have relatively low efficacy. ...We have investigated whether drugs approved for other human diseases could be repurposed as novel anti-whipworm drugs. In a previous comparative genomics analysis, we identified 409 drugs approved for human use that we predicted to target parasitic worm proteins. Here we tested these ex vivo by assessing motility of adult worms of Trichuris muris, the murine whipworm, an established model for human whipworm research. We identified 14 compounds with EC.sub.50 values of less than or equal to50 muM against T. muris ex vivo, and selected nine for testing in vivo. However, the best worm burden reduction seen in mice was just 19%. The high number of ex vivo hits against T. muris shows that we were successful at predicting parasite proteins that could be targeted by approved drugs. In contrast, the low efficacy of these compounds in mice suggest challenges due to their chemical properties (e.g. lipophilicity, polarity, molecular weight) and pharmacokinetics (e.g. absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion) that may (i) promote absorption by the host gastrointestinal tract, thereby reducing availability to the worms embedded in the large intestine, and/or (ii) restrict drug uptake by the worms. This indicates that identifying structural analogues that have reduced absorption by the host, and increased uptake by worms, may be necessary for successful drug development against whipworms.
Global and local feedback analysis techniques have been applied to two ensembles of mixed layer equilibrium CO.sub.2 doubling climate change experiments, from the CFMIP (Cloud Feedback Model ...Intercomparison Project) and QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions) projects. Neither of these new ensembles shows evidence of a statistically significant change in the ensemble mean or variance in global mean climate sensitivity when compared with the results from the mixed layer models quoted in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. Global mean feedback analysis of these two ensembles confirms the large contribution made by inter-model differences in cloud feedbacks to those in climate sensitivity in earlier studies; net cloud feedbacks are responsible for 66% of the inter-model variance in the total feedback in the CFMIP ensemble and 85% in the QUMP ensemble. The ensemble mean global feedback components are all statistically indistinguishable between the two ensembles, except for the clear-sky shortwave feedback which is stronger in the CFMIP ensemble. While ensemble variances of the shortwave cloud feedback and both clear-sky feedback terms are larger in CFMIP, there is considerable overlap in the cloud feedback ranges; QUMP spans 80% or more of the CFMIP ranges in longwave and shortwave cloud feedback. We introduce a local cloud feedback classification system which distinguishes different types of cloud feedbacks on the basis of the relative strengths of their longwave and shortwave components, and interpret these in terms of responses of different cloud types diagnosed by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project simulator. In the CFMIP ensemble, areas where low-top cloud changes constitute the largest cloud response are responsible for 59% of the contribution from cloud feedback to the variance in the total feedback. A similar figure is found for the QUMP ensemble. Areas of positive low cloud feedback (associated with reductions in low level cloud amount) contribute most to this figure in the CFMIP ensemble, while areas of negative cloud feedback (associated with increases in low level cloud amount and optical thickness) contribute most in QUMP. Classes associated with high-top cloud feedbacks are responsible for 33 and 20% of the cloud feedback contribution in CFMIP and QUMP, respectively, while classes where no particular cloud type stands out are responsible for 8 and 21%.
Results are presented from a new version of the Hadley Centre coupled model (HadCM3) that does not require flux adjustments to prevent large climate drifts in the simulation. The model has both an ...improved atmosphere and ocean component. In particular, the ocean has a 1.25 degree 1.25 degree degree horizontal resolution and leads to a considerably improved simulation of ocean heat transports compared to earlier versions with a coarser resolution ocean component. The model does not have any spin up procedure prior to coupling and the simulation has been run for over 400 years starting from observed initial conditions. The sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice simulation are shown to be stable and realistic. The trend in global mean SST is less than 0.009 degree C per century. In part, the improved simulation is a consequence of a greater compatibility of the atmosphere and ocean model heat budgets. The atmospheric model surface heat and momentum budget are evaluated by comparing with climatological ship-based estimates. Similarly the ocean model simulation of poleward heat transports is compared with direct ship-based observations for a number of sections across the globe. Despite the limitations of the observed datasets, it is shown that the coupled model is able to reproduce many aspects of the observed heat budget.
A new coupled general circulation climate model developed at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre is presented, and aspects of its performance in climate simulations run for the Intergovernmental Panel on ...Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) documented with reference to previous models. The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 1 (HadGEM1) is built around a new atmospheric dynamical core; uses higher resolution than the previous Hadley Centre model, HadCM3; and contains several improvements in its formulation including interactive atmospheric aerosols (sulphate, black carbon, biomass burning, and sea salt) plus their direct and indirect effects. The ocean component also has higher resolution and incorporates a sea ice component more advanced than HadCM3 in terms of both dynamics and thermodynamics. HadGEM1 thus permits experiments including some interactive processes not feasible with HadCM3. The simulation of present-day mean climate in HadGEM1 is significantly better overall in comparison to HadCM3, although some deficiencies exist in the simulation of tropical climate and El Niño variability. We quantify the overall improvement using a quasi-objective climate index encompassing a range of atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice variables. It arises partly from higher resolution but also from greater fidelity in modeling dynamical and physical processes, for example, in the representation of clouds and sea ice. HadGEM1 has a similar effective climate sensitivity (2.8 K) to a CO₂ doubling as HadCM3 (3.1 K), although there are significant regional differences in their response patterns, especially in the Tropics. HadGEM1 is anticipated to be used as the basis both for higher-resolution and higher-complexity Earth System studies in the near future.
Abstract
The future change in dry and humid heatwaves is assessed in 10-yr pan-African convective-scale (4.5 km) and parameterized convection (25 km) climate model simulations. Compared to ...reanalysis, the convective-scale simulation is better able to represent humid heatwaves than the parameterized simulation. Model performance for dry heatwaves is much more similar. Both model configurations simulate large increases in the intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwaves by 2100 under RCP8.5. Present-day conditions that occur on 3–6 heatwave days per year will be normal by 2100, occurring on 150–180 days per year. The future change in dry heatwaves is similar in both climate model configurations, whereas the future change in humid heatwaves is 56% higher in intensity and 20% higher in frequency in the convective-scale model. Dry heatwaves are associated with low rainfall, reduced cloud, increased surface shortwave heating, and increased sensible heat flux. In contrast, humid heatwaves are predominately controlled by increased humidity, rainfall, cloud, longwave heating, and evaporation, with dry-bulb temperature gaining more significance in the most humid regions. Approximately one-third (32%) of humid heatwaves commence on wet days. Moist processes are known to be better represented in convective-scale models. Climate models with parameterized convection, such as those in CMIP, may underestimate the future change in humid heatwaves, which heightens the need for mitigation and adaptation strategies and indicates there may be less time available to implement them to avoid future catastrophic heat stress conditions than previously thought.
Significance Statement
Temperatures are higher in dry heatwaves, but humid heatwaves can be more dangerous, as the ability to cool by sweating is limited. We found that dry heatwaves are caused by decreased cloud, allowing the sun to heat the surface, whereas humid heatwaves are caused by increased cloud, rainfall, and evaporation from the surface. We found that a state-of-the-art very high-resolution climate model predicts a larger future change in humid heatwaves compared to a more traditional global climate model. Previous estimates of the prevalence of humid heatwaves in the future may therefore be underestimated. If we do not cut emissions of greenhouse gases, present-day African heatwave conditions could be experienced on up to half of all days of the year by 2100.
Tropical storms are located and tracked in an experiment in which a high-resolution atmosphere only model is forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice. The structure, ...geographic distribution and seasonal variability of the model tropical storms show some similarities with observations. The simulation of tropical storms is better in this high-resolution experiment than in a parallel standard resolution experiment. In an anomaly experiment, sea ice, SSTs and greenhouse-gas forcing are changed to mimic the changes that occur in a coupled model as greenhouse-gases are increased. There are more tropical storms in this experiment than in the control experiment in the Northeast Pacific and Indian Ocean basins and fewer in the North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific and Southwest Pacific region. The changes in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific can be linked to El Niño-like behaviour. A comparison of the tracking results with two empirically derived tropical storm genesis parameters is carried out. The tracking technique and a convective genesis parameter give similar results, both in the global distribution and in the changes in the individual basins. The convective genesis parameter is also applied to parallel coupled model experiments that have a lower horizontal resolution. The changes in the global distribution of tropical storms in the coupled model experiments are consistent with the changes seen at higher resolution. This indicates that the convective genesis parameter may still provide useful information about tropical storm changes in experiments carried out with models that cannot resolve tropical storms.
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