We analyzed a set of geodetic data to investigate the contribution of local factors, namely the sea level natural variability (SLNV) and the vertical land motion (VLM), to the sea-level trend. The ...SLNV is analyzed through the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) on tidal data (>60 years of recordings) and results are used to evaluate its effects on sea levels. The VLM is measured at a set of continuous GPS (cGPS) stations (>5 years of recordings), located nearby the tide gauges. By combining VLM and SLNV with IPCC-AR5 regional projections of climatic data (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5), we provide relative sea-level rise projections by 2100. Results show that the combined effects of SLNV and VLM are not negligible, contributing between 15% and 65% to the sea-level variability. Expected sea levels for 2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario are between 475 ± 203 (Bakar) and 818 ± 250 mm (Venice). In the Venice Lagoon, the mean land subsidence at 3.3 ± 0.85 mm a−1 (locally up to 8.45 ± 1.69 mm a−1) is driving the local sea-level rise acceleration.
The global sea-level rise (SLR) projections for the next few decades are the basis for developing flooding maps that depict the expected hazard scenarios. However, the spatially variable land ...subsidence has generally not been considered in the current projections. In this study, we use geodetic data from global navigation satellite system (GNSS), synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements (InSAR) and sea-level data from tidal stations to show the combined effects of land subsidence and SLR along the coast between Catania and Marzamemi, in south-eastern Sicily (southern Italy). This is one of the most active tectonic areas of the Mediterranean basin, which drives accelerated SLR, continuous coastal retreat and increasing effects of flooding and storms surges. We focus on six selected areas, which show valuable coastal infrastructures and natural reserves where the expected SLR in the next few years could be a potential cause of significant land flooding and morphological changes of the coastal strip. Through a multidisciplinary study, the multi-temporal flooding scenarios until 2100, have been estimated. Results are based on the spatially variable rates of vertical land movements (VLM), the topographic features of the area provided by airborne Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of SLR in the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. In addition, from the analysis of the time series of optical satellite images, a coastal retreat up to 70 m has been observed at the Ciane river mouth (Siracusa) in the time span 2001–2019. Our results show a diffuse land subsidence locally exceeding 10 ± 2.5 mm/year in some areas, due to compacting artificial landfill, salt marshes and Holocene soft deposits. Given ongoing land subsidence, a high end of RSLR in the RCP 8.5 at 0.52 ± 0.05 m and 1.52 ± 0.13 m is expected for 2050 AD and 2100 AD, respectively, with an exposed area of about 9.7 km2 that will be vulnerable to inundation in the next 80 years.
We investigate crustal deformation within the upper plate of the Ionian Subduction Zone (ISZ) at different time scales by (i) refining geodetic rates of crustal extension from continuous Global ...Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements and (ii) mapping sequence of Late Quaternary raised marine terraces tectonically deformed by the West Crati normal fault, in northern Calabria. This region experienced damaging earthquakes in 1184 (M 6.75) and 1854 (M 6.3), possibly on the E-dipping West Crati fault (WCF) which, however, is not unanimously considered to be a seismogenic source. We report geodetic measurements of extension and strain rates across the strike of the E-dipping WCF and throughout the northern Calabria obtained by using velocities from 18 permanent GNSS stations with a series length longer than 4.5 years. These results suggest that crustal extension may be seismically accommodated in this region by a few normal faults. Furthermore, by applying a synchronous correlation approach, we refine the chronology of understudied tectonically deformed palaeoshorelines mapped on the footwall and along the strike of the WCF, facilitating calculation of the associated fault-controlled uplift rates. Raised Late Quaternary palaeoshorelines are preserved on the footwall of the WCF indicating that “regional” uplift, likely related to the deformation associated either with the subduction or mantle upwelling processes, is affected by local footwall uplift. We show that GIS-based elevations of Late Quaternary palaeoshorelines, as well as temporally constant uplift rates, vary along the strike of the WCF, implying normal faulting activity through time. This suggests that (i) the fault slip rate governing seismic hazard has also been constant over the Late Quaternary, over multiple earthquake cycles, and (ii) our geodetically derived fault throw rate for the WCF is likely a more than reasonable value to be used over longer time scales for an improved seismic hazard assessment. Overall, we emphasize the importance of mapping crustal deformation within the upper plate above subduction zones to avoid unreliable interpretations relating to the mechanism controlling regional uplift.
Low-lying coastal zones are highly subject to coastal hazards as a result of sea-level rise enhanced by natural or anthropogenic land subsidence. A combined analysis using sea-level data and remote ...sensing techniques allows the estimation of the current rates of land subsidence and shoreline retreat, supporting the development of quantified relative sea-level projections and flood maps, which are appropriate for specific areas. This study focuses on the coastal plain of Tavoliere delle Puglie (Apulia, Southern Italy), facing the Adriatic Sea. In this area, land subsidence is mainly caused by long-term tectonic movements and sediment compaction driven by high anthropogenic pressure, such as groundwater exploitation and constructions of buildings. To assess the expected effects of relative sea-level rise for the next decades, we considered the following multidisciplinary source data: (i) sea-level-rise projections for different climatic scenarios, as reported in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (ii) coastal topography from airborne and terrestrial LiDAR data, (iii) Vertical Land Movement (VLM) from the analysis of InSAR and GNSS data, and (iv) shoreline changes obtained from the analysis of orthophotos, historic maps, and satellite images. To assess the expected evolution of the coastal belt, the topographic data were corrected for VLM values, assuming that the rates of land subsidence will remain constant up to 2150. The sea-level-rise projections and expected flooded areas were estimated for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, corresponding to low and high greenhouse-gas concentrations, respectively. From our analysis, we estimate that in 2050, 2100, and 2150, up to 50.5 km2, 118.7 km2 and 147.7 km2 of the coast could be submerged, respectively, while beaches could retreat at rates of up to 5.8 m/yr. In this area, sea-level rise will be accelerated by natural and anthropogenic land subsidence at rates of up to −7.5 ± 1.7 mm/yr. Local infrastructure and residential areas are thus highly exposed to an increasing risk of severe inundation by storm surges and sea-level rise in the next decades.
The Iberian Peninsula and the Maghreb experience moderate earthquake activity and oblique, ∼ NW–SE convergence between Africa and Eurasia at a rate of ∼ 5 mm/yr. Coeval extension in the Alboran Basin ...and a N35°E trending band of active, left-lateral shear deformation in the Alboran–Betic region are not straightforward to understand in the context of regional shortening, and evidence complexity of deformation at the plate contact. We estimate 86 seismic moment tensors (M
W 3.3 to 6.9) from time domain inversion of near-regional waveforms in an intermediate period band. Those and previous moment tensors are used to describe regional faulting style and calculate average stress tensors. The solutions associated to the Trans-Alboran shear zone show predominantly strike-slip faulting, and indicate a clockwise rotation of the largest principal stress orientation compared to the regional convergence direction (
σ
1 at N350°E). At the N-Algerian and SW-Iberian margins, reverse faulting solutions dominate, corresponding to N350°E and N310°E compression, respectively. Over most of the Betic range and intraplate Iberia, we observe predominately normal faulting, and WSW–ENE extension (
σ
3 at N240°E). From GPS observations we estimate that more than 3 mm/yr of African (Nubian)–Eurasian plate convergence are currently accommodated at the N-Algerian margin, ∼ 2 mm/yr in the Moroccan Atlas, and ∼ 2 mm/yr at the SW-Iberian margin. 2 mm/yr is a reasonable estimate for convergence within the Alboran region, while Alboran extension can be quantified as ∼ 2.5 mm/yr along the stretching direction (N240°E). Superposition of both motions explains the observed left-lateral transtensional regime in the Trans-Alboran shear zone. Two potential driving mechanisms of differential motion of the Alboran–Betic–Gibraltar domain may coexist in the region: a secondary stress source other than plate convergence, related to regional-scale dynamic processes in the upper mantle of the Alboran region, as well as drag from the continental-scale motion of the Nubian plate along the southern limit of the region. In the Atlantic Ocean, the ∼ 3.5 mm/yr, westward motion of the Gibraltar Arc relative to intraplate Iberia can be accommodated at the transpressive SW-Iberian margin, while available GPS observations do not support an active subduction process in this area.
In this work we present and discuss new geodetic velocity and strain-rate fields for the Euro-Mediterranean region obtained from the analysis of continuous GNSS stations. We describe the procedures ...and methods adopted to analyze raw GPS observations from >4000 stations operating in the Euro-Mediterranean, Eurasian and African regions. The goal of this massive analysis is the monitoring of Earth’s crust deformation in response to tectonic processes, including plate- and micro-plate kinematics, geodynamics, active tectonics, earthquake-cycle, but also the study of a wide range of geophysical processes, natural and anthropogenic subsidence, sea-level changes, and hydrology. We describe the computational infrastructure, the methods and procedures adopted to obtain a three-dimensional GPS velocity field, which is used to obtain spatial velocity gradients and horizontal strain-rates. We then focus on the Euro-Mediterranean region, where we discuss the horizontal and vertical velocities, and spatial velocity gradients, obtained from stations that have time-series lengths longer than 6 and 7 years, which are found to be the minimum spans to provide stable and reliable velocity estimates in the horizontal and vertical components, respectively. We compute the horizontal strain-rate field and discuss deformation patterns and kinematics along the major seismogenic belts of the Nubia-Eurasia plate boundary zone in the Mediterranean region. The distribution and density of continuous GNSS stations in our geodetic solution allow us to estimate the strain-rate field at a spatial scale of ∼27 km over a large part of southern Europe, with the exclusion of the Dinaric mountains and Balkans.
We use 2.5 to 14 years long position time series from >800 continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) stations to study vertical deformation rates in the Euro‐Mediterranean region. We estimate and ...remove common mode errors in position time series using a principal component analysis, obtaining a significant gain in the signal‐to‐noise ratio of the displacements data. Following the results of a maximum likelihood estimation analysis, which gives a mean spectral index ~ −0.7, we adopt a power law + white noise stochastic model in estimating the final vertical rates and find 95% of the velocities within ±2 mm/yr, with uncertainties from filtered time series ~40% smaller than from the unfiltered ones. We highlight the presence of statistically significant velocity gradients where the stations density is higher. We find undulations of the vertical velocity field at different spatial scales both in tectonically active regions, like eastern Alps, Apennines, and eastern Mediterranean, and in regions characterized by a low or negligible tectonic activity, like central Iberia and western Alps. A correlation between smooth vertical velocities and topographic features is apparent in many sectors of the study area. Glacial isostatic adjustment and weathering processes do not completely explain the measured rates, and a combination of active tectonics and deep‐seated geodynamic processes must be invoked. Excluding areas where localized processes are likely, or where subduction processes may be active, mantle dynamics is the most likely process, but regional mantle modeling is required for a better understanding.
Key Points
We show a first synoptic view of vertical GPS rates for the Euro‐Mediterranean
Vertical velocity gradients occur at different spatial scales
Correlation between vertical velocities and topography is apparent in many areas
Sea level rise (SLR) is among the major climate change effects threating the coasts of the Mediterranean basin, which are increasingly exposed to coastal flooding, especially along the low lying ...coastal plains, river deltas, lagoons and reclamation areas. Coastal erosion, beach retreat and marine flooding are already causing unprecedented environmental and socio-economic impacts on coastal populations. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) these effects are expected to worsen by 2100 and beyond with a projected global SLR up to about 1 m above the current level. This study provides an overview of the Mediterranean basin, focusing on the vulnerable city of Venice, which is particularly exposed to marine flooding due to SLR and land subsidence. We show the current and future sea level trend as well as a flooding scenarios in the absence of the Experimental Electromechanical Module (MoSE), which is protecting the city of Venice since 2020. To understand the awareness of citizens in Venice to address SLR, we have engaged a group of stakeholders through a structured participatory process to develop solution-oriented, case-specific and site-specific Policy Tools. Our results show that the Policy Tools contain relevant, effective and implementable actions stemming from stakeholder interaction and consensus building, identifying relevant issues that should be considered for SLR adaptation policies. A more extensive participation in public processes is required to materialize the Policy Tools into concrete actions to help vulnerable areas adapt to the expected SLR by the end of this century.
Geodetic data can detect and estimate deformation signals and rates due to natural and anthropogenic phenomena. In the present study, we focus on northeastern Italy, an area characterized by ~1.5–3 ...mm/yr of convergence rates due to the collision of Adria-Eurasia plates and active subsidence along the coasts. To define the rates and trends of tectonic and subsidence signals, we use a Multi-Temporal InSAR (MT-InSAR) approach called the Stanford Method for Persistent Scatterers (StaMPS), which is based on the detection of coherent and temporally stable pixels in a stack of single-master differential interferograms. We use Sentinel-1 SAR images along ascending and descending orbits spanning the 2015–2019 temporal interval as inputs for Persistent Scatterers InSAR (PSI) processing. We apply spatial-temporal filters and post-processing steps to reduce unrealistic results. Finally, we calibrate InSAR measurements using GNSS velocities derived from permanent stations available in the study area. Our results consist of mean ground velocity maps showing the displacement rates along the radar Line-Of-Sight for each satellite track, from which we estimate the east–west and vertical velocity components. Our results provide a detailed and original view of active vertical and horizontal displacement rates over the whole region, allowing the detection of spatial velocity gradients, which are particularly relevant to a better understanding of the seismogenic potential of the area. As regards the subsidence along the coasts, our measurements confirm the correlation between subsidence and the geological setting of the study area, with rates of ~2–4 mm/yr between the Venezia and Marano lagoons, and lower than 1 mm/yr near Grado.
The Emilia-Romagna seismic sequence in May 2012 was characterized by two mainshocks which were close in time and space. Several authors already modeled the geodetic data in terms of the mechanical ...interaction of the events in the seismic sequence. Liquefaction has been extensively observed, suggesting an important role of fluids in the sequence. In this work, we focus on the poroelastic effects induced by the two mainshocks. In particular, the target of this work is to model the influence of fluids and pore-pressure changes on surface displacements and on the Coulomb failure function (CFF). The fluid flow and poroelastic modeling was performed in a 3D half-space whose elastic and hydraulic parameters are depth dependent, in accordance with the geology of the Emilia-Romagna subsoil. The model provides both the poroelastic displacements and the pore-pressure changes induced coseismically by the two mainshocks at subsequent periods and their evolution over time. Modeling results are then compared with postseismic InSAR and GPS displacement time series: the InSAR data consist of two SBAS series presented in previous works, while the GPS signal was detected adopting a variational Bayesian independent component analysis (vbICA) method. Thanks to the vbICA, we are able to separate the contribution of afterslip and poroelasticity on the horizontal surface displacements recorded by the GPS stations. The poroelastic GPS component is then compared to the modeled displacements and shown to be mainly due to drainage of the shallowest layers. Our results offer an estimation of the poroelastic effect magnitude that is small but not negligible and mostly confined in the near field of the two mainshocks. We also show that accounting for a 3D fault representation with a nonuniform slip distribution and the elastic-hydraulic layering of the half-space has an important role in the simulation results.
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