Ocean acidification (OA) along the US West Coast is intensifying faster than observed in the global ocean. This is particularly true in nearshore regions (<200 m) that experience a lower buffering ...capacity while at the same time providing important habitats for ecologically and economically significant species. While the literature on the effects of OA from laboratory experiments is voluminous, there is little understanding of present-day OA in-situ effects on marine life. Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) is perennially one of the most valuable commercial and recreational fisheries. We focused on establishing OA-related vulnerability of larval crustacean based on mineralogical and elemental carapace to external and internal carapace dissolution by using a combination of different methods ranging from scanning electron microscopy, energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, elemental mapping and X-ray diffraction. By integrating carapace features with the chemical observations and biogeochemical model hindcast, we identify the occurrence of external carapace dissolution related to the steepest Ω calcite gradients (∆Ωcal,60) in the water column. Dissolution features are observed across the carapace, pereopods (legs), and around the calcified areas surrounding neuritic canals of mechanoreceptors. The carapace dissolution is the most extensive in the coastal habitats under prolonged (1-month) long exposure, as demonstrated by the use of the model hindcast. Such dissolution has a potential to destabilize mechanoreceptors with important sensory and behavioral functions, a pathway of sensitivity to OA. Carapace dissolution is negatively related to crab larval width, demonstrating a basis for energetic trade-offs. Using a retrospective prediction from a regression models, we estimate an 8.3% increase in external carapace dissolution over the last two decades and identified a set of affected OA-related sublethal pathways to inform future risk assessment studies of Dungeness crabs.
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•Coastal habitats with the steepest ocean acidification gradients are most detrimental for larval Dungeness crabs.•Severe carapace dissolution was observed in larval Dungeness crabs along the US west coast.•Mechanoreceptors with important sensory and behavioral functions were destabilized.•Dissolution is negatively related to the growth, demonstrating energetic trade-offs.•10% dissolution increase over the last two decades estimated due to atmospheric CO2.
Global projections for ocean conditions in 2100 predict that the North Pacific will experience some of the largest changes. Coastal processes that drive variability in the region can alter these ...projected changes but are poorly resolved by global coarse-resolution models. We quantify the degree to which local processes modify biogeochemical changes in the eastern boundary California Current System (CCS) using multi-model regionally downscaled climate projections of multiple climate-associated stressors (temperature, O2, pH, saturation state (Ω), and CO2). The downscaled projections predict changes consistent with the directional change from the global projections for the same emissions scenario. However, the magnitude and spatial variability of projected changes are modified in the downscaled projections for carbon variables. Future changes in pCO2 and surface Ω are amplified, while changes in pH and upper 200 m Ω are dampened relative to the projected change in global models. Surface carbon variable changes are highly correlated to changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), pCO2 changes over the upper 200 m are correlated to total alkalinity (TA), and changes at the bottom are correlated to DIC and nutrient changes. The correlations in these latter two regions suggest that future changes in carbon variables are influenced by nutrient cycling, changes in benthic–pelagic coupling, and TA resolved by the downscaled projections. Within the CCS, differences in global and downscaled climate stressors are spatially variable, and the northern CCS experiences the most intense modification. These projected changes are consistent with the continued reduction in source water oxygen; increase in source water nutrients; and, combined with solubility-driven changes, altered future upwelled source waters in the CCS. The results presented here suggest that projections that resolve coastal processes are necessary for adequate representation of the magnitude of projected change in carbon stressors in the CCS.
The rapid pace of ocean change has prompted a need to forecast likely future species distributions. Species distribution models are often categorized as either correlative (statistical) or ...mechanistic, and each has limitations both for advancing understanding and for prediction. Here we sought to benefit from mechanistic understanding of how and why low dissolved oxygen affects species' distributions by applying physiologically informed statistical models to the spatial distribution of sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria, a deep‐dwelling commercially important groundfish. We fit spatial models to trawl‐survey data on catch rate, local temperature and dissolved oxygen, and estimated parameters of the metabolic index, which provided a way to express the temperature‐dependence of oxygen tolerance. We fit generalized linear mixed effects models with Gaussian random fields to capture the latent spatially fixed variables, and included both linear and breakpoint functions for pO2 and the metabolic index. The best fitting models all included breakpoint effects of pO2, and the estimated threshold value of 0.05 atm is close to levels in laboratory studies where metabolism begins to decline. Models based on the metabolic index were not as well supported as those that included pO2, likely because of the decrease in temperature and slight increase in pO2 at deep (> 800 m) depths. These findings illustrate that statistical models of species distributions can be improved by incorporating knowledge of how physiological mechanisms operate. Furthermore, they illustrate that even species with high tolerance for low dissolved oxygen may undergo species distribution shifts in the face of growing oxygen depletion in coastal ocean ecosystems.
The Olympic Coast of Washington is home to four Coastal Treaty Tribes who have relied on the region’s rich marine resources since time immemorial. The region is characterized by large dynamic ranges ...of physical and biogeochemical oceanographic parameters, particularly during the upwelling season (April–September). Here, we present novel estimates of ocean acidification metrics—pH and calcium carbonate saturation states (Ω)—representing pre-industrial, present-day (using 2010 as the index year), and near-future (2030) conditions. We compare these new estimates of past, present, and near-future ocean acidification status and seasonality to published end-of-century (2100) ocean acidification projections under a high CO₂ emissions scenario, and also to sensitivity information for Dungeness crab, a regionally important subsistence and commercial fishery species projected to show strong declines in fisheries yields and revenues later this century.
Starting in late 2013, the Northeast (NE) Pacific Ocean experienced anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that persisted for over 2 years. This marine heatwave, known as “the Blob,” ...produced many devastating ecological impacts with socioeconomic implications for coastal communities. The warm waters observed during the NE Pacific 2013/2016 marine heatwave altered the surface energy balance and disrupted ocean–atmosphere interactions in the region. In principle, ocean–atmosphere interactions following the formation of the marine heatwave could have perpetuated warm SSTs through a positive SST‐cloud feedback. The actual situation was more complicated. While reanalysis data show a decrease in boundary layer cloud fraction and an increase in downward shortwave radiative flux at the surface coincident with warm SSTs, this was accompanied by an increase in longwave radiative fluxes at the surface, as well as an increase in sensible and latent heat fluxes out of the ocean mixed layer. The result is a small negative net heat flux anomaly (compared to the anomalies of the individual terms contributing to the net heat flux). This provides new information about the midlatitude ocean–atmosphere system while it was in a perturbed state. More specifically, a mixed layer heat budget reveals that anomalies in both the atmospheric and oceanic processes offset each other such that the anomalously warm SSTs persisted for multiple years. The results show how the atmosphere–ocean system in the NE Pacific is able to maintain itself in an anomalous state for an extended period of time.
Key Points
During the 2013–2016 NE Pacific marine heatwave, a decrease in low cloud fraction and increase in surface radiative fluxes were observed
Concurrently, anomalous turbulent fluxes and ocean processes offset a positive SST‐cloud feedback to maintain high SST anomalies
A balance of anomalous processes allows the atmosphere–ocean system in the NE Pacific to maintain an anomalous state for multiple years
In the California Current Ecosystem, the California Undercurrent (CU) is the predominate subsurface current that transports nutrient-rich water from southern California poleward. In this study, we ...used a large dataset of spatially explicit in situ observations of Pacific hake ( Merluccius productus) and the CU (36.5–48.3°N) to estimate relationships between northward undercurrent velocity and hake distribution and determine whether these relationships vary across space or life-history stage. We found that both hake occurrence and density had strong spatially complex relationships with the CU. In areas north of 44°N (central Oregon), the CU effect was spatially consistent and opposite for occurrence (negative) and density (positive), indicating that hake may aggregate in areas of high northward velocity in this region. In areas south of 44°N, the CU effect showed a cross-shelf gradient for both occurrence and density, indicating a more nearshore hake distribution when northward velocity is higher in this region. Together, our results suggest that future changes in the CU due to climate change are likely to impact hake differently in northern and southern areas.
Resource managers at the state, federal, and tribal levels make decisions on a weekly to quarterly basis, and fishers operate on a similar timeframe. To determine the potential of a support tool for ...these efforts, a seasonal forecast system is experimented with here. JISAO's Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem (J-SCOPE) features dynamical downscaling of regional ocean conditions in Washington and Oregon waters using a combination of a high-resolution regional model with biogeochemistry and forecasts from NOAA's Climate Forecast System (CFS). Model performance and predictability were examined for sea surface temperature (SST), bottom temperature, bottom oxygen, pH, and aragonite saturation state through model hindcasts, reforecast, and forecast comparisons with observations. Results indicate J-SCOPE forecasts have measurable skill on seasonal timescales. Experiments suggest that seasonal forecasting of ocean conditions important for fisheries is possible with the right combination of components. Those components include regional predictability on seasonal timescales of the physical environment from a large-scale model, a high-resolution regional model with biogeochemistry that simulates seasonal conditions in hindcasts, a relationship with local stakeholders, and a real-time observational network. Multiple efforts and approaches in different regions would advance knowledge to provide additional tools to fishers and other stakeholders.
Despite the significant advances in making monthly or seasonal forecasts of weather, ocean hypoxia, harmful algal blooms and marine pathogens, few such forecasting efforts have extended to the ...ecology of upper trophic level marine species. Here, we test our ability to use short‐term (up to 9 months) predictions of ocean conditions to create a novel forecast of the spatial distribution of Pacific sardine, Sardinops sagax. Predictions of ocean conditions are derived using the output from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model downscaled through the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Using generalized additive models (GAMs), we estimated significant relationships between sardine presence in a test year (2009) and salinity and temperature. The model, fitted to 2009 data, had a moderate skill area under the curve (AUC) = 0.67 in predicting 2009 sardine distributions, 5–8 months in advance. Preliminary tests indicate that the model also had the skill to predict sardine presence in August 2013 (AUC = 0.85) and August 2014 (AUC = 0.96), 4–5 months in advance. The approach could be used to provide fishery managers with an early warning of distributional shifts of this species, which migrates from the U.S.–Mexico border to as far north as British Columbia, Canada, in summers with warm water and other favorable ocean conditions. We expect seasonal and monthly forecasts of ocean conditions to be broadly useful for predicting spatial distributions of other pelagic and midwater species.
The Bering Sea is highly vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA) due to naturally cold, poorly buffered waters and ocean mixing processes. Harsh weather conditions within this rapidly changing, ...geographically remote environment have limited the quantity of carbon chemistry data, thereby hampering efforts to understand underlying spatial-temporal variability and detect long-term trends. We add carbonate chemistry to a regional biogeochemical model of the Bering Sea to explore the underlying mechanisms driving carbon dynamics over a decadal hindcast (2003-2012). The results illustrate that coastal processes generate considerable spatial variability in the biogeochemistry and vulnerability of Bering Sea shelf water to OA. Substantial seasonal biological productivity maintains high supersaturation of aragonite on the outer shelf, whereas riverine freshwater runoff loaded with allochthonous carbon decreases aragonite saturation states (ΩArag) to values below 1 on the inner shelf. Over the entire 2003-2012 model hindcast, annual surface ΩArag decreases by 0.025 – 0.04 units/year due to positive trends in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in surface waters and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Variability in this trend is driven by an increase in fall phytoplankton productivity and shelf carbon uptake, occurring during a transition from a relatively warm (2003-2005) to cold (2010-2012) temperature regime. Our results illustrate how local biogeochemical processes and climate variability can modify projected rates of OA within a coastal shelf system.
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