Tuberculosis is an important risk factor for chronic respiratory disease in resource poor settings. The persistence of abnormal spirometry and symptoms after treatment are well described, but the ...structural abnormalities underlying these changes remain poorly defined, limiting our ability to phenotype post-TB lung disease in to meaningful categories for clinical management, prognostication, and ongoing research. The relationship between post-TB lung damage and patient-centred outcomes including functional impairment, respiratory symptoms, and health related quality of life also remains unclear.
We performed a systematic literature review to determine the prevalence and pattern of imaging-defined lung pathology in adults after medical treatment for pleural, miliary, or pulmonary TB disease. Data were collected on study characteristics, and the modality, timing, and findings of thoracic imaging. The proportion of studies relating imaging findings to spirometry results and patient morbidity was recorded. Study quality was assessed using a modified Newcastle-Ottowa score. (Prospero Registration number CRD42015027958).
We identified 37 eligible studies. The principle features seen on CXR were cavitation (8.3-83.7%), bronchiectasis (4.3-11.2%), and fibrosis (25.0-70.4%), but prevalence was highly variable. CT imaging identified a wider range of residual abnormalities than CXR, including nodules (25.0-55.8%), consolidation (3.7-19.2%), and emphysema (15.0-45.0%). The prevalence of cavitation was generally lower (7.4-34.6%) and bronchiectasis higher (35.0-86.0%) on CT vs. CXR imaging. A paucity of prospective data, and data from HIV-infected adults and sub-Saharan Africa (sSA) was noted. Few studies related structural damage to physiological impairment, respiratory symptoms, or patient morbidity.
Post-TB structural lung pathology is common. Prospective data are required to determine the evolution of this lung damage and its associated morbidity over time. Further data are required from HIV-infected groups and those living in sSA.
Household air pollution from solid fuel burning kills over 4 million people every year including half a million children from acute lower respiratory infections. Although biologically plausible, it ...is not clear whether household air pollution is also associated with acute lower respiratory infections in adults. We systematically reviewed the literature on household air pollution and acute lower respiratory infection in adults to identify knowledge gaps and research opportunities.
Ten bibliographic databases were searched to identify studies of household air pollution and adult acute lower respiratory infection. Data were extracted from eligible studies using standardised forms.
From 4617 titles, 513 abstracts and 72 full-text articles were reviewed. Eight studies met the inclusion criteria of which 2 found a significant adjusted increased risk of acute lower respiratory infection, 2 identified a univariate association whilst 4 found no significant association. Study quality was generally limited. Heterogeneity in methods and findings precluded meta-analysis.
A systematic review of the literature found limited evidence for an association between household air pollution and risk of acute lower respiratory infection in adults. Additional research, with carefully defined exposure and outcome measures, is required to complete the risk profile caused by household air pollution in adults.
CRD42015028042.
Buruli ulcer can cause disfigurement and long-term loss of function. It is underdiagnosed and under-reported, and its current distribution is unclear. We aimed to synthesise and evaluate data on ...Buruli ulcer prevalence and distribution.
We did a systematic review of Buruli ulcer prevalence and used an evidence consensus framework to describe and evaluate evidence for Buruli ulcer distribution worldwide. We searched PubMed and Web of Science databases from inception to Aug 6, 2018, for records of Buruli ulcer and Mycobacterium ulcerans detection, with no limits on study type, publication date, participant population, or location. English, French, and Spanish language publications were included. We included population-based surveys presenting Buruli ulcer prevalence estimates, or data that allowed prevalence to be estimated, in the systematic review. We extracted geographical data on the occurrence of Buruli ulcer cases and M ulcerans detection from studies of any type for the evidence consensus framework; articles that did not report original data were excluded. For the main analysis, we extracted prevalence estimates from included surveys and calculated 95% CIs using Byar's method. We included occurrence records, reports to WHO and the Global Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology Network, and surveillance data from Buruli ulcer control programmes in the evidence consensus framework to grade the strength of evidence for Buruli ulcer endemicity. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018116260.
2763 titles met the search criteria. We extracted prevalence estimates from ten studies and occurrence data from 208 studies and five unpublished surveillance datasets. Prevalence estimates within study areas ranged from 3·2 (95% CI 3·1–3·3) cases per 10 000 population in Côte d'Ivoire to 26·9 (23·5–30·7) cases per 10 000 population in Benin. There was evidence of Buruli ulcer in 32 countries and consensus on presence in 12.
The global distribution of Buruli ulcer is uncertain and potentially wider than currently recognised. Our findings represent the strongest available evidence on Buruli ulcer distribution so far and have many potential applications, from directing surveillance activities to informing burden estimates.
AIM Initiative.
Driven by global targets to eliminate soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem, governments have rapidly rolled out control programmes using school and community-based platforms. To ...justify and target ongoing investment, quantification of impact and identification of remaining high-risk areas are needed. We aimed to assess regional progress towards these targets.
We did a continental-scale ecological analysis using a Bayesian space–time hierarchical model to estimate the effects of known environmental, socioeconomic, and control-related factors on the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths, and we mapped the probability that implementation units had achieved moderate-to-heavy intensity infection prevalence of less than 2% among children aged 5–14 years between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2018.
We incorporated data from 26 304 georeferenced surveys, spanning 3096 (60%) of the 5183 programmatic implementation units. Our findings suggest a reduction in the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths in children aged 5–14 years in sub-Saharan Africa, from 44% in 2000 to 13% in 2018, driven by sustained delivery of preventive chemotherapy, improved sanitation, and economic development. Nevertheless, 1301 (25%) of 5183 implementation units still had an estimated prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity infection exceeding the 2% target threshold in 2018, largely concentrated in nine countries (in 1026 79% of 1301 implementation units): Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Angola, Mozambique, Madagascar, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon.
Our estimates highlight the areas to target and strengthen interventions, and the areas where data gaps remain. If elimination of soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem is to be achieved in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, continued investment in treatment and prevention activities are essential to ensure that no areas are left behind.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Buruli ulcer (BU) is a disabling and stigmatising neglected tropical disease (NTD). Its distribution and burden are unknown because of underdiagnosis and underreporting. It is caused by Mycobacterium ...ulcerans, an environmental pathogen whose environmental niche and transmission routes are not fully understood. The main control strategy is active surveillance to promote early treatment and thus limit morbidity, but these activities are mostly restricted to well-known endemic areas. A better understanding of environmental suitability for the bacterium and disease could inform targeted surveillance, and advance understanding of the ecology and burden of BU. We used previously compiled point-level datasets of BU and M. ulcerans occurrence, evidence for BU occurrence within national and sub-national areas, and a suite of relevant environmental covariates in a distribution modelling framework. We fitted relationships between BU and M. ulcerans occurrence and environmental predictors by applying regression and machine learning based algorithms, combined in an ensemble model to characterise the optimal ecological niche for the disease and bacterium across Africa at a resolution of 5km x 5km. Proximity to waterbodies was the strongest predictor of suitability for BU, followed potential evapotranspiration. The strongest predictors of suitability for M. ulcerans were deforestation and potential evapotranspiration. We identified patchy foci of suitability throughout West and Central Africa, including areas with no previous evidence of the disease. Predicted suitability for M. ulcerans was wider but overlapping with that of BU. The estimated population living in areas predicted suitable for the bacterium and disease was 46.1 million. These maps could be used to inform burden estimations and case searches which would generate a more complete understanding of the spatial distribution of BU in Africa, and may guide control programmes to identify cases beyond the well-known endemic areas.
Podoconiosis is a type of tropical lymphedema that causes massive swelling of the lower limbs. The disease is associated with both economic insecurity, due to long-term morbidity-related loss of ...productivity, and intense social stigma. The geographical distribution and burden of podoconiosis in Africa are uncertain. We applied statistical modelling to the most comprehensive database compiled to date to predict the environmental suitability of podoconiosis in the African continent. By combining climate and environmental data and overlaying population figures, we predicted the environmental suitability and human population at risk of podoconiosis in Africa. Environmental suitability for podoconiosis was predicted in 29 African countries. In the year 2020, the total population in areas suitable for podoconiosis is estimated at 114.5 million people, (95% uncertainty interval: 109.4-123.9) with 16.9 million in areas suitable for both lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis. Of the total 5,712 implementation units (typically second administrative-level units, such as districts) defined by the World Health Organization in Africa, 1,655 (29.0%) were found to be environmentally suitable for podoconiosis. The majority of implementation units with high environmental suitability are located in Angola (80, 4.8%), Cameroon (170, 10.3%), the DRC (244, 14.7%), Ethiopia (495, 29.9%), Kenya (217, 13.1%), Uganda (116, 7.0%) and Tanzania (112, 6.8%). Of the 1,655 environmentally suitable implementation units, 960 (58.0%) require more detailed community-level mapping. Our estimates provide key evidence of the population at risk and geographical extent of podoconiosis in Africa, which will help decision-makers to better plan more integrated intervention programmes.
Podoconiosis is a type of elephantiasis characterised by swelling of the lower legs. It is often confused with other causes of tropical lymphedema and its global distribution is uncertain. Here we ...synthesise the available information on the presence of podoconiosis to produce evidence consensus maps of its global geographical distribution.
We systematically searched available data on podoconiosis in SCOPUS and MEDLINE from inception, updated to 10 May, 2019, and identified observational and population-based studies reporting podoconiosis. To establish existence of podoconiosis, we used the number of cases reported in studies and prevalence data with geographical locations. We then developed an index to assess evidence quality and reliability, assigning each country an evidence consensus score. Using these summary scores, we then developed a contemporary global map of national-level podoconiosis status. There is evidence of podoconiosis in 17 countries (12 in Africa, three in Latin America, and two in Asia) and consensus on presence in six countries (all in Africa). We have identified countries where surveillance is required to further define the presence or absence of podoconiosis. We have highlighted areas where evidence is currently insufficient or conflicting, and from which more evidence is needed.
The global distribution of podoconiosis is not clearly known; the disease extent and limits provided here inform the best contemporary map of the distribution of podoconiosis globally from available data. These results help identify surveillance needs, direct future mapping activities, and inform prevention plans and burden estimation of podoconiosis.
Schistosomiasis control programmes primarily use school-based surveys to identify areas for mass drug administration of preventive chemotherapy. However, as the spatial distribution of ...schistosomiasis can be highly focal, transmission may not be detected by surveys implemented at districts or larger spatial units. Improved mapping strategies are required to accurately and cost-effectively target preventive chemotherapy to remaining foci across all possible spatial distributions of schistosomiasis.
Here, we use geostatistical models to quantify the spatial heterogeneity of Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni across sub-Saharan Africa using the most comprehensive dataset available on school-based surveys. Applying this information to parameterise simulations, we assess the accuracy and cost of targeting alternative implementation unit sizes across the range of plausible schistosomiasis distributions. We evaluate the consequences of decisions based on survey designs implemented at district and subdistrict levels sampling different numbers of schools. Cost data were obtained from field surveys conducted across multiple countries and years, with cost effectiveness evaluated as the cost per correctly identified school.
Models identified marked differences in prevalence and spatial distributions between countries and species; however, results suggest implementing surveys at subdistrict level increase the accuracy of treatment classifications across most scenarios. While sampling intensively at the subdistrict level resulted in the highest classification accuracy, this sampling strategy resulted in the highest costs. Alternatively, sampling the same numbers of schools currently recommended at the district level but stratifying by subdistrict increased cost effectiveness.
This study provides a new tool to evaluate schistosomiasis survey designs across a range of transmission settings. Results highlight the importance of considering spatial structure when designing sampling strategies, illustrating that a substantial proportion of children may be undertreated even when an implementation unit is correctly classified. Control programmes need to weigh the increased accuracy of more detailed mapping strategies against the survey costs and treatment priorities.
cetoma is a serious chronic subcutaneous granulomatous inflammatory disease that is endemic in tropical and subtropical regions, where it impacts profoundly on patients, families, and communities. ...Individual-level risk factors for the disease are poorly understood. To address this, a case-control study was conducted based on data collected from 60 villages in Eastern Sennar Locality, Sennar State, Sudan. Based on the presence of swelling in any part of the body, or sinus formation with or without grain discharge evident from the lesion by ultrasound examination, we diagnosed 359 cases of mycetoma. For each case, we included three healthy sex-matched persons, with no evidence of mycetoma, from the same village as the control group (n = 1077). The odds for mycetoma were almost three times higher in individuals in the age group 16-30 years (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 2.804, 95% CI = 1.424-5.523) compared to those in age group <= 15 years. Other factors contributing to the odds of mycetoma were history of local trauma (AOR = 1.892, 95% CI = 1.425-2.513), being unmarried (AOR = 3.179, 95% CI = 2.339-4.20) and owning livestock (AOR = 3.941, 95% CI = 2.874-5.405). In conclusion, certain factors found to be associated with mycetoma in this study could inform a high index of suspicion for mycetoma diagnosis, which would improve early case detection. Other factors found to be associated could inform the development of an interventional program for mycetoma control in Sudan, including education on healthy farming practices and the risks of puncture wounds for individuals residing in endemic areas. However, this work was conducted in one endemic state, while mycetoma cases occur in all states of Sudan. Replicating this study over a wider area would give a fuller picture of the situation, providing the control program with more comprehensive information on the risk factors for the disease.
IntroductionThailand’s malaria surveillance system complements passive case detection with active case detection (ACD), comprising proactive ACD (PACD) methods and reactive ACD (RACD) methods that ...target community members near index cases. However, it is unclear if these resource-intensive surveillance strategies continue to provide useful yield. This study aimed to document the evolution of the ACD programme and to assess the potential to optimise PACD and RACD.MethodsThis study used routine data from all 6 292 302 patients tested for malaria from fiscal year 2015 (FY15) to FY21. To assess trends over time and geography, ACD yield was defined as the proportion of cases detected among total screenings. To investigate geographical variation in yield from FY17 to FY21, we used intercept-only generalised linear regression models (binomial distribution), allowing random intercepts at different geographical levels. A costing analysis gathered the incremental financial costs for one instance of ACD per focus.ResultsTest positivity for ACD was low (0.08%) and declined over time (from 0.14% to 0.03%), compared with 3.81% for passive case detection (5.62%–1.93%). Whereas PACD and RACD contributed nearly equal proportions of confirmed cases in FY15, by FY21 PACD represented just 32.37% of ACD cases, with 0.01% test positivity. Each geography showed different yields. We provide a calculator for PACD costs, which vary widely. RACD costs an expected US$226 per case investigation survey (US$1.62 per person tested) or US$461 per mass blood survey (US$1.10 per person tested).ConclusionACD yield, particularly for PACD, is waning alongside incidence, offering an opportunity to optimise. PACD may remain useful only in specific microcontexts with sharper targeting and implementation. RACD could be narrowed by defining demographic-based screening criteria rather than geographical based. Ultimately, ACD can continue to contribute to Thailand’s malaria elimination programme but with more deliberate targeting to balance operational costs.
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