Ecosystem services lost to oil and gas in North America Allred, Brady W; Smith, WKolby; Twidwell, Dirac ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
04/2015, Letnik:
348, Številka:
6233
Journal Article
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Advanced technologies in oil and gas extraction coupled with energy demand have encouraged an average of 50,000 new wells per year throughout central North America since 2000. Although similar to ...past trends (see the graph, this page), the space and infrastructure required for horizontal drilling and high-volume hydraulic fracturing are transforming millions of hectares of the Great Plains into industrialized landscapes, with drilling projected to continue (1, 2). Although this development brings economic benefits (3) and expectations of energy security, policy and regulation give little attention to trade-offs in the form of lost or degraded ecosystem services (4). It is the scale of this transformation that is important, as accumulating land degradation can result in continental impacts that are undetectable when focusing on any single region (5). With the impact of this transformation on natural systems and ecosystem services yet to be quantified at broad extents, decisions are being made with few data at hand (see the graph, this page).
Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a ...disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade‐offs inherent in large‐scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long‐term, single‐factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large‐scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi‐faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most powerful and urgent way forward in order to improve our understanding of tropical forest responses to climate change.
Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability regulate plant productivity throughout the terrestrial biosphere, influencing the patterns and magnitude of net primary production (NPP) by land plants ...both now and into the future. These nutrients enter ecosystems via geologic and atmospheric pathways and are recycled to varying degrees through the plant–soil–microbe system via organic matter decay processes. However, the proportion of global NPP that can be attributed to new nutrient inputs versus recycled nutrients is unresolved, as are the large-scale patterns of variation across terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we combined satellite imagery, biogeochemical modeling, and empirical observations to identify previously unrecognized patterns of new versus recycled nutrient (N and P) productivity on land. Our analysis points to tropical forests as a hotspot of new NPP fueled by new N (accounting for 45% of total new NPP globally), much higher than previous estimates from temperate and high-latitude regions. The large fraction of tropical forest NPP resulting from new N is driven by the high capacity for N fixation, although this varies considerably within this diverse biome; N deposition explains a much smaller proportion of new NPP. By contrast, the contribution of new N to primary productivity is lower outside the tropics, and worldwide, new P inputs are uniformly low relative to plant demands. These results imply that new N inputs have the greatest capacity to fuel additional NPP by terrestrial plants, whereas low P availability may ultimately constrain NPP across much of the terrestrial biosphere.
Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the largest natural source of exogenous nitrogen (N) to unmanaged ecosystems and also the primary baseline against which anthropogenic changes to the N cycle are ...measured. Rates of BNF in tropical rainforest are thought to be among the highest on Earth, but they are notoriously difficult to quantify and are based on little empirical data. We adapted a sampling strategy from community ecology to generate spatial estimates of symbiotic and free-living BNF in secondary and primary forest sites that span a typical range of tropical forest legume abundance. Although total BNF was higher in secondary than primary forest, overall rates were roughly five times lower than previous estimates for the tropical forest biome. We found strong correlations between symbiotic BNF and legume abundance, but we also show that spatially free-living BNF often exceeds symbiotic inputs. Our results suggest that BNF in tropical forest has been overestimated, and our data are consistent with a recent top-down estimate of global BNF that implied but did not measure low tropical BNF rates. Finally, comparing tropical BNF within the historical area of tropical rainforest with current anthropogenic N inputs indicates that humans have already at least doubled reactive N inputs to the tropical forest biome, a far greater change than previously thought. Because N inputs are increasing faster in the tropics than anywhere on Earth, both the proportion and the effects of human N enrichment are likely to grow in the future.
Bioenergy: how much can we expect for 2050? Haberl, Helmut; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Krausmann, Fridolin ...
Environmental research letters,
09/2013, Letnik:
8, Številka:
3
Journal Article
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Estimates of global primary bioenergy potentials in the literature span almost three orders of magnitude. We narrow that range by discussing biophysical constraints on bioenergy potentials resulting ...from plant growth (NPP) and its current human use. In the last 30 years, terrestrial NPP was almost constant near 54 PgC yr−1, despite massive efforts to increase yields in agriculture and forestry. The global human appropriation of terrestrial plant production has doubled in the last century. We estimate the maximum physical potential of the world's total land area outside croplands, infrastructure, wilderness and denser forests to deliver bioenergy at approximately 190 EJ yr−1. These pasture lands, sparser woodlands, savannas and tundras are already used heavily for grazing and store abundant carbon; they would have to be entirely converted to bioenergy and intensive forage production to provide that amount of energy. Such a high level of bioenergy supply would roughly double the global human biomass harvest, with far-reaching effects on biodiversity, ecosystems and food supply. Identifying sustainable levels of bioenergy and finding ways to integrate bioenergy with food supply and ecological conservation goals remains a huge and pressing scientific challenge.
The terrestrial biosphere is currently a strong carbon (C) sink but may switch to a source in the 21st century as climate-driven losses exceed CO₂-driven C gains, thereby accelerating global warming. ...Although it has long been recognized that tropical climate plays a critical role in regulating interannual climate variability, the causal link between changes in temperature and precipitation and terrestrial processes remains uncertain. Here, we combine atmospheric mass balance, remote sensing-modeled datasets of vegetation C uptake, and climate datasets to characterize the temporal variability of the terrestrial C sink and determine the dominant climate drivers of this variability. We show that the interannual variability of global land C sink has grown by 50–100% over the past 50 y. We further find that interannual land C sink variability is most strongly linked to tropical nighttime warming, likely through respiration. This apparent sensitivity of respiration to nighttime temperatures, which are projected to increase faster than global average temperatures, suggests that C stored in tropical forests may be vulnerable to future warming.
Seventeen Earth system models (ESMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were evaluated, focusing on the seasonal sensitivities of net biome production (NBP), net ...primary production (NPP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation during 1982–2005 and their changes over the twenty-first century. Temperature sensitivity of NPP in ESMs was generally consistent across northern high-latitude biomes but significantly more negative for tropical and subtropical biomes relative to satellite-derived estimates. The temperature sensitivity of NBP in both inversion-based and ESM estimates was generally consistent in March–May (MAM) and September–November (SON) for tropical forests, semiarid ecosystems, and boreal forests. By contrast, for inversion-based NBP estimates, temperature sensitivity of NBP was nonsignificant for June–August (JJA) for all biomes except boreal forest; whereas, for ESM NBP estimates, the temperature sensitivity for JJA was significantly negative for all biomes except shrublands and subarctic ecosystems. Both satellite-derived NPP and inversion-based NBP are often decoupled from precipitation, whereas ESM NPP and NBP estimates are generally positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting that ESMs are oversensitive to precipitation. Over the twenty-first century, changes in temperature sensitivities of NPP, Rh, and NBP are consistent across all RCPs but stronger under more intensive scenarios. The temperature sensitivity of NBP was found to decrease in tropics and subtropics and increase in northern high latitudes in MAM due to an increased temperature sensitivity of NPP. Across all biomes, projected temperature sensitivity of NPP decreased in JJA and SON. Projected precipitation sensitivity of NBP did not change across biomes, except over grasslands in MAM.
Gross primary production (GPP) plays an important role in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems. It is particularly important to monitor GPP in Southeast ...Asia because of increasing rates of tropical forest degradation and deforestation in the region in recent decades. The newly available, improved, third generation Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) from the Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) group provides a long temporal dataset, from July 1981 to December 2011, for terrestrial carbon cycle and climate response research. However, GIMMS NDVI3g-based GPP estimates are not yet available. We applied the GLOPEM-CEVSA model, which integrates an ecosystem process model and a production efficiency model, to estimate GPP in Southeast Asia based on three independent results of the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) from GIMMS NDVI3g (GPPNDVI3g), GIMMS NDVI1g (GPPNDVI1g), and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MOD15A2 FPAR product (GPPMOD15). The GPP results were validated using ground data from eddy flux towers located in different forest biomes, and comparisons were made among the three GPPs as well as the MOD17A2 GPP products (GPPMOD17). Based on validation with flux tower derived GPP estimates the results show that GPPNDVI3g is more accurate than GPPNDVI1g and is comparable in accuracy with GPPMOD15. In addition, GPPNDVI3g and GPPMOD15 have good spatial-temporal consistency. Our results indicate that GIMMS NDVI3g is an effective dataset for regional GPP simulation in Southeast Asia, capable of accurately tracking the variation and trends in long-term terrestrial ecosystem GPP dynamics.
Altered surface ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation resulting from a combination of factors that include changes in stratospheric ozone concentrations, cloud cover, and aerosol conditions may affect ...litter decomposition and, thus, terrestrial nutrient cycling on a global scale. Although litter decomposition rates vary across biomes, patterns of decomposition suggest that UV-B radiation accelerates litter decay in xeric environments where precipitation is infrequent. However, under more frequent precipitation regimes where litter decay rates are characteristically high, the effect of UV-B radiation on litter decomposition has not been fully elucidated. To evaluate this association between moisture regime and UV-B exposure, a litter decomposition experiment was designed for aspen (Populus tremuloides) leaf litter, where conditions that influence both abiotic (photodegradation) and biotic (microbial) processes could be manipulated quantitatively. We found that experimentally increasing UV-B exposure (0, 7.4, and 11.2 kJ m⁻² day⁻¹, respectively) did not consistently increase litter decomposition rates across simulated precipitation frequencies of 4, 12, and 24 days. Instead, a UV-B exposure of 11.2 kJ m⁻² day⁻¹ resulted in a 13% decrease in decomposition rates under the 4-day precipitation frequency, but an increase of 80% under the 24-day frequency. Furthermore, the same UV-B dose increased litter decomposition rates under the 24-day precipitation frequency by 78% even in conditions where microbial activity was suppressed. Therefore, under more xeric conditions, greater exposure to UV-B radiation increased decomposition rates, presumably through photodegradation. In contrast, when decomposition was not moisture-limited, greater UV-B exposure slowed decomposition rates, most likely from the resulting inhibition of microbial activity. Ultimately, these experimental results highlight UV-B radiation as a potential driver of decomposition, as well as indicate that both the direction and magnitude of the UV-B effect is dependent on moisture availability, a factor that may change according to future patterns in global precipitation.
Short-term forecasts of vegetation activity are currently not well constrained due largely to our lack of understanding of coupled climate-vegetation dynamics mediated by complex interactions between ...atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Using ecoregion-scale estimates of North American vegetation activity inferred from remote sensing (1982-2015), we examined seasonal and spatial relationships between land surface phenology and the atmospheric components of five teleconnection patterns over the tropical Pacific, north Pacific, and north Atlantic. Using a set of regression experiments, we also tested for interactions among these teleconnection patterns and assessed predictability of vegetation activity solely based on knowledge of atmospheric teleconnection indices. Autumn-to-winter composites of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were strongly correlated with start of growing season timing, especially in the Pacific Northwest. The two leading modes of north Pacific variability (the Pacific-North American, PNA, and West Pacific patterns) were significantly correlated with start of growing season timing across much of southern Canada and the upper Great Lakes. Regression models based on these Pacific teleconnections were skillful predictors of spring phenology across an east-west swath of temperate and boreal North America, between 40°N-60°N. While the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was not strongly correlated with start of growing season timing on its own, we found compelling evidence of widespread NAO-SOI and NAO-PNA interaction effects. These results suggest that knowledge of atmospheric conditions over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans increases the predictability of North American spring phenology. A more robust consideration of the complexity of the atmospheric circulation system, including interactions across multiple ocean basins, is an important step towards accurate forecasts of vegetation activity.
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