Climate change in temperate regions will lead to higher and more extreme temperature distributions; however, its impact on pests and their control strategies is rarely investigated in detail. One ...reason is the problem of downscaling climate predictions to the temporal and spatial scale of pest life cycles. In the present study, we have closed that gap by impact modelling on hourly scale and downscaling on spatial scale, by adapting a stochastic weather generator (WG) for pest modelling. Thereby, the codling moth, Cydia pomonella, serves as a relevant model species for a key pest with multiple generations per year that, already under the present climate, requires intensive efforts to control. Stochastic weather generation, followed by a re-sampling approach, provided hourly synthetic weather data for 10 meteorological sites in Switzerland under future climate conditions (2045-2074). Synthetic weather was analysed by a phenology model implemented in the forecasting system SOPRA. The results showed significant shifts to earlier dates in codling moth phenological events in Swiss apple orchards, increased magnitude of the 2nd generation, less overlap between stages, and a bigger risk for an additional 3rd generation. Shifts in phenology and magnitude of later generations require adaptations of plant protection regimes to maintain their sustainability, as we illustrate in the present paper, specifically for the strategies in codling moth control. In general, however, methodologies may easily be adapted in further pest and disease combinations and cropping systems.
Background: Pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD) and bevacizumab are active agents in the treatment of metastatic breast cancer (MBC). We carried out a multicenter, single-arm phase II trial to ...evaluate the toxicity and efficacy of PLD and bevacizumab as first-line treatment in MBC patients.
Methods: Bevacizumab (10 mg/kg) and PLD (20 mg/m2) were infused on days 1 and 15 of a 4-week cycle for a maximum of six cycles. Thereafter, bevacizumab monotherapy was continued at the same dose until progression or toxicity. The primary objective was safety and tolerability, and the secondary objective was to evaluate efficacy of the combination.
Results: Thirty-nine of 43 patients were assessable for the primary end point. Eighteen of 39 patients (46%, 95% confidence interval 30% to 63%) had a grade 3 toxicity. Sixteen (41%) had grade 3 palmar-plantar erythrodysesthesia, one had grade 3 mucositis, and one severe cardiotoxicity. Secondary end point of overall response rate among 43 assessable patients was 21%.
Conclusions: In this nonrandomized single-arm trial, the combination of bimonthly PLD and bevacizumab in locally recurrent and MBC patients demonstrated higher than anticipated toxicity while exhibiting only modest activity. Based on these results, we would not consider this combination for further investigation in this setting.
Greenhouse gas budgets as well as the productivity of grassland systems are closely related to the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles. Within the framework of the CarboEurope and NitroEurope projects ...we have measured C and N exchange on the field scale at the grassland site Oensingen previously converted from arable rotation. The site is located on the Swiss Central Plateau and consists of two parallel fields of equal size. One field was subjected to intensive management with average nitrogen input of 230
kg-N
ha
−1
year
−1 and 4–5 cuts per year, and the other to an extensive management with no fertilisation and less frequent cutting. The total C budget of the fields was assessed by measuring the CO
2 exchange by eddy covariance and analysing the carbon import by manure application and export by harvest. The N budget of the managed grassland is more complex. Besides the management related import and export, it includes gaseous exchange in many different forms (NO, NO
2, HNO
3, N
2O, NH
3, N
2) needing different analytical techniques, as well as input by rain and leaching of N-compounds with the soil water. The main (“level-3”) field sites in the NitroEurope project are supposed to measure 95% of the N fluxes at the field scale. For several of the N fluxes specific measurements have been performed for 1 year or longer at the site. Some of the remaining N budget components (dry and wet deposition) could be estimated from results of a national deposition network, while other components (NH
3 and N
2 emission) were estimated based on literature parameterisations. However, we found indications that the (systematic) uncertainties of these estimated N-fluxes are large and that it is important to make site-specific measurement for all relevant budget components. The suitability of corresponding experimental methods is discussed.
Analysis of the C budget over a 6-year period (2002–2007) showed a significant mean difference between the two newly established grassland fields with a likely net carbon loss for the extensive management and a net sequestration for the intensive management. Since the C/N ratio of the soil organic matter of the grassland is constrained in a rather narrow range around 9.3, the change in the soil carbon pool is supposed to be accompanied by a corresponding change in the N storage. This approach provided an alternative method to check the N budget of the two grassland fields derived from the individual N fluxes.
The vegetation–atmosphere-exchange is an important process controlling the atmospheric concentration of various volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that play a major role in atmospheric chemistry. ...However, the quantification of VOC exchange on the ecosystem scale is still an analytical challenge. In the present study we tested and applied a proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometry system (PTR-MS) for the measurement of biogenic VOCs in a mixed deciduous forest. VOC concentrations were calculated from the raw instrument signals based on physical principles. This method allows a consistent quantification also of compounds for which regular calibration with a gas standard is not available. It requires a regular and careful investigation of the mass-dependent ion detection characteristics of the PTR-MS, which otherwise could become a considerable error source. The PTR-MS method was tested in the laboratory for a range of oxygenated and non-oxygenated VOCs using a permeation source. The agreement was within 16% or better, which is well within the expected uncertainty.
During the field measurement campaign in a deciduous forest stand, an on-line intercomparison with a state-of-the-art gas-chromatography system showed a generally good agreement. However, the relatively low ambient VOC concentrations revealed some systematic difference for acetone and isoprene, that may indicate an error in the determination of the PTR-MS offset or an interference of an unidentified isobaric compound on the detected ion mass. With the presentation of selected field results, we demonstrate the ability of the PTR-MS system to measure continuous vertical concentration profiles of biogenic VOCs throughout a forest canopy at a time resolution of 20
min. The resulting datasets provide valuable information for the study of the interactions between emission, photochemical transformation and transport processes within and above the forest canopy.
Traditional ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) systems are known to provide a valuable baseline to predict streamflows at the subseasonal to seasonal timescale. They exploit a combination of ...initial conditions and past meteorological observations, and can often provide useful forecasts of the expected streamflow in the upcoming month. In recent years, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for subseasonal to seasonal timescales have made large progress and can provide added value to such a traditional ESP approach. Before using such meteorological predictions two major problems need to be solved: the correction of biases, and downscaling to increase the spatial resolution. Various methods exist to overcome these problems, but the potential of using NWP information and the relative merit of the different statistical and modelling steps remain open. To address this question, we compare a traditional ESP system with a subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system in three alpine catchments with varying hydroclimatic conditions and areas between 80 and 1700 km2. Uncorrected and corrected (pre-processed) temperature and precipitation reforecasts from the ECMWF subseasonal NWP model are used to run the hydrological simulations and the performance of the resulting streamflow predictions is assessed with commonly used verification scores characterizing different aspects of the forecasts (ensemble mean and spread). Our results indicate that the NWP-based approach can provide superior prediction to the ESP approach, especially at shorter lead times. In snow-dominated catchments the pre-processing of the meteorological input further improves the performance of the predictions. This is most pronounced in late winter and spring when snow melting occurs. Moreover, our results highlight the importance of snow-related processes for subseasonal streamflow predictions in mountainous regions.
We present a user-friendly tool for footprint calculations of flux measurements in the surface layer. The calculations are based on the analytical footprint model by Kormann, R. and Meixner, F.X. ...2001. An analytical footprint model for Non-neutral Stratification. Boundary-Layer Meteorology 99, 207–224. The footprint density function of a flux sensor is determined using readily available data from standard eddy covariance measurements. This footprint density function is integrated over defined surface areas given as quadrangular polygons representing e.g. agricultural fields. We illustrate the use and performance of the tool by applying it to CO
2 flux measurements with three eddy covariance system at the Swiss CarboEurope grassland site. Two flux towers were positioned in the centre of two neighbouring fields, respectively, that showed a very different CO
2 flux during the study period. The third tower was located near the border of the two fields and was frequently influenced by both fields to a similar degree. The calculated footprint fractions were used to simulate the latter flux from the other two systems. The measured and simulated fluxes showed a good agreement and thus support the reliability of the footprint calculation. The presented simple footprint tool can be used as a routine quality check for flux monitoring stations influenced by surface areas with varying vegetation covers and/or land-use.
A simple tool for operational footprint calculations is presented and its reliability is assessed using CO
2 flux measurements in a patchy agricultural landscape.
Ice-nucleating particles catalyze ice formation in clouds, affecting climate through radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions. Aviation directly emits particles into the upper troposphere ...where ice formation conditions are favorable. Previous studies have used proxies of aviation soot to estimate their ice nucleation activity; however, investigations with commercial aircraft soot from modern in-use aircraft engines have not been quantified. In this work, we sample aviation soot particles at ground level from different commercial aircraft engines to test their ice nucleation ability at temperatures ≤228 K as a function of engine thrust and soot particle size. Additionally, soot particles were catalytically stripped to reveal the impact of mixing state on their ice nucleation ability. Particle physical and chemical properties were further characterized and related to the ice nucleation properties. The results show that aviation soot nucleates ice at or above relative humidity conditions required for homogeneous freezing of solution droplets (RHhom). We attribute this to a mesopore paucity inhibiting pore condensation and the sulfur content which suppresses freezing. Only large soot aggregates (400 nm) emitted under 30 %–100 % thrust conditions for a subset of engines (2 out of 10) nucleate ice via pore condensation and freezing. For those specific engines, the presence of hydrophilic chemical groups facilitates the nucleation. Aviation soot emitted at thrust ≥ 100 % (sea level thrust) nucleates ice at or above RHhom. Overall, our results suggest that aviation soot will not contribute to natural cirrus formation and can be used in models to update impacts of soot–cirrus clouds.
PDF
