The main concern when utilizing renewable energy resources is their intermittency and variability. One way to deal with this shortcoming is to harvest energy from complementary sources. In this ...study, wind and wave energy were selected as such and further analyzed in terms of availability, variability, coherence, correlation and potential impact from extreme values. This resource characterization was performed in different timescales, during a 10-year period, using high resolution numerical modeling systems. Based on the results of this analysis, the most suitable areas for combined exploitation were identified and the possible merits from this synergy were pin-pointed and discussed. It was indicated that the most suitable areas for combined use are the western offshore areas of Europe. The wind and wave fields in these open sea areas reveal the lowest correlation in the examined field in contrast to those located in semi-enclosed and enclosed basins that exhibit the highest ones. The joint exploitation in the former regions gives a less variable power output with considerable fewer hours of zero production. Moreover, the suitable energy conversion system for a specific area is strongly dependent on the local characteristics of the available resource.
•Assessing the spatiotemporal variability of the European offshore wind and wave energy resources.•Areas favorable for combined exploitation were pin pointed.•The most important benefits from the combined use were identified.•The differences in using different type of combined wind and wave energy converters in areas with different climatological characterisitcs were highlighted.
Severe hydrometeorological hazards such as floods, droughts, and thunderstorms are expected to increase in the future due to climate change. Due to the significant impacts of these phenomena, it is ...essential to develop new and advanced early warning systems for advance preparation of the population and local authorities (civil protection, government agencies, etc.). Therefore, reliable forecasts of extreme events, with high spatial and temporal resolution and a very short time horizon are needed, due to the very fast development and localized nature of these events. In very short time-periods (up to 6 h), small-scale phenomena can be described accurately by adopting a “nowcasting” approach, providing reliable short-term forecasts and warnings. To this end, a novel nowcasting system was developed and presented in this study, combining a data assimilation system (LAPS), a large amount of observed data, including XPOL radar precipitation measurements, the Chemical Hydrological Atmospheric Ocean wave System (CHAOS), and the WRF-Hydro model. The system was evaluated on the catastrophic flash flood event that occurred in the sub-urban area of Mandra in Western Attica, Greece, on 15 November 2017. The event was one of the most catastrophic flash floods with human fatalities (24 people died) and extensive infrastructure damage. The update of the simulations with assimilated radar data improved the initial precipitation description and led to an improved simulation of the evolution of the phenomenon. Statistical evaluation and comparison with flood data from the FloodHub showed that the nowcasting system could have provided reliable early warning of the flood event 1, 2, and even to 3 h in advance, giving vital time to the local authorities to mobilize and even prevent fatalities and injuries to the local population.
Urban areas often experience high precipitation rates and heights associated with flash flood events. Atmospheric and hydrological models in combination with remote-sensing and surface observations ...are used to analyze these phenomena. This study aims to conduct a hydrometeorological analysis of a flash flood event that took place in the sub-urban area of Mandra, western Attica, Greece, using remote-sensing observations and the Chemical Hydrological Atmospheric Ocean Wave System (CHAOS) modeling system that includes the Advanced Weather Research Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model and the hydrological model (WRF-Hydro). The flash flood was caused by a severe storm during the morning of 15 November 2017 around Mandra area resulting in extensive damages and 24 fatalities. The X-band dual-polarization (XPOL) weather radar of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) observed precipitation rates reaching 140 mm/h in the core of the storm. CHAOS simulation unveils the persistent orographic convergence of humid southeasterly airflow over Pateras mountain as the dominant parameter for the evolution of the storm. WRF-Hydro simulated the flood using three different precipitation estimations as forcing data, obtained from the CHAOS simulation (CHAOS-hydro), the XPOL weather radar (XPOL-hydro) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GMP)/Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) satellite dataset (GPM/IMERG-hydro). The findings indicate that GPM/IMERG-hydro underestimated the flood magnitude. On the other hand, XPOL-hydro simulation resulted to discharge about 115 m3/s and water level exceeding 3 m in Soures and Agia Aikaterini streams, which finally inundated. CHAOS-hydro estimated approximately the half water level and even lower discharge compared to XPOL-hydro simulation. Comparing site-detailed post-surveys of flood extent, XPOL-hydro is characterized by overestimation while CHAOS-hydro and GPM/IMERG-hydro present underestimation. However, CHAOS-hydro shows enough skill to simulate the flooded areas despite the forecast inaccuracies of numerical weather prediction. Overall, the simulation results demonstrate the potential benefit of using high-resolution observations from a X-band dual-polarization radar as an additional forcing component in model precipitation simulations.
A unique 4-week ship cruise from Guadeloupe to Cabo Verde in April–May 2013 see part 1, Rittmeister et al. (2017) is used for an in-depth comparison of dust profiles observed with a ...polarization/Raman lidar aboard the German research vessel Meteor over the remote tropical Atlantic and respective dust forecasts of a regional (SKIRON) and two global atmospheric (dust) transport models (NMMB/BSC-Dust, MACC/CAMS). New options of model–observation comparisons are presented. We analyze how well the modeled fine dust (submicrometer particles) and coarse dust contributions to light extinction and mass concentration match respective lidar observations, and to what extent models, adjusted to aerosol optical thickness observations, are able to reproduce the observed layering and mixing of dust and non-dust (mostly marine) aerosol components over the remote tropical Atlantic. Based on the coherent set of dust profiles at well-defined distances from Africa (without any disturbance by anthropogenic aerosol sources over the ocean), we investigate how accurately the models handle dust removal at distances of 1500 km to more than 5000 km west of the Saharan dust source regions. It was found that (a) dust predictions are of acceptable quality for the first several days after dust emission up to 2000 km west of the African continent, (b) the removal of dust from the atmosphere is too strong for large transport paths in the global models, and (c) the simulated fine-to-coarse dust ratio (in terms of mass concentration and light extinction) is too high in the models compared to the observations. This deviation occurs initially close to the dust sources and then increases with distance from Africa and thus points to an overestimation of fine dust emission in the models.
North Africa, the Middle East, and Europe (NAMEE domain) host a variety of suspended particles characterized by different optical and microphysical properties. In the current study, we investigate ...the importance of the lidar ratio (LR) on Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization–Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIOP-CALIPSO) aerosol retrievals towards assessing aerosols’ impact on the Earth-atmosphere radiation budget. A holistic approach has been adopted involving collocated Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations, Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) simulations, as well as reference radiation measurements acquired using spaceborne (Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System-CERES) and ground-based (Baseline Surface Radiation Network-BSRN) instruments. We are assessing the clear-sky shortwave (SW) direct radiative effects (DREs) on 550 atmospheric scenes, identified within the 2007–2020 period, in which the primary tropospheric aerosol species (dust, marine, polluted continental/smoke, elevated smoke, and clean continental) are probed using CALIPSO. RTM runs have been performed relying on CALIOP retrievals in which the default and the DeLiAn (Depolarization ratio, Lidar ratio, and Ångström exponent)-based aerosol-speciated LRs are considered. The simulated fields from both configurations are compared against those produced when AERONET AODs are applied. Overall, the DeLiAn LRs leads to better results mainly when mineral particles are either solely recorded or coexist with other aerosol species (e.g., sea-salt). In quantitative terms, the errors in DREs are reduced by ~26–27% at the surface (from 5.3 to 3.9 W/m2) and within the atmosphere (from −3.3 to −2.4 W/m2). The improvements become more significant (reaching up to ~35%) for moderate-to-high aerosol loads (AOD ≥ 0.2).
The principal objective of this study is to present and evaluate an advanced dust wet deposition scheme in the Weather and Research Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). As far as the ...chemistry component is concerned, the Georgia Tech Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport of the Air Force Weather Agency (GOCART-AFWA) module is applied, as it supports a binary scheme for dust emissions and transport. However, the GOCART-AFWA aerosol module does not incorporate a wet scavenging scheme, nor does it interact with cloud processes. The integration of a dust wet deposition scheme following Seinfeld and Pandis into the WRF-Chem model is assessed through a case study of large-scale Saharan dust transport over the Eastern Mediterranean that is characterized by severe wet deposition over Greece. An acceptable agreement was found between the calculated and measured near surface PM10 concentrations, as well as when model estimated atmospheric optical depth (AOD) was validated against the AERONET measurements, indicating the validity of our dust wet deposition scheme.
Tropical Cyclone Shaheen (TCS), originating in the Arabian Sea on 30 September 2021, followed an east-to-west trajectory and made landfall as a category-1 cyclone in northern Oman on 3 October 2021, ...causing severe floods and damages before dissipating in the United Arab Emirates. This study aims to analyze the synoptic and dynamical conditions influencing Shaheen’s genesis and evolution. Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data, SEVIRI-EUMETSAT imagery, and Sorbonne University Atmospheric Forecasting System (SUAFS) outputs, it was found that Shaheen manifested as a warm-core cyclone with moderate vertical wind shear within the eyewall. Distinctive features included a trajectory aligned with rising sea surface temperatures and increased specific humidity levels at 700 hPa in the Arabian Sea. As Shaheen approached the Gulf of Oman, a significant increase in rainfall rates occurred, correlated with variations in sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear. Comparative analysis between SUAFS and ERA5 data revealed a slight northward shift in the SUAFS track and landfall. Advance warnings highlighted heavy rainfall, rough seas, and strong winds. This study provides valuable insights into the meteorological factors contributing to Shaheen’s formation and impact.
We present the development of a physically-based dust source map for the GOCART-AFWA dust module in WRF-Chem model. The new parameterization is based on MODIS-NDVI and an updated emission strength ...map is computed every 15 days from the latest satellite observations. Modeling simulations for the period April–May 2017 over the Mediterranean, north Africa, and the Middle East are compared with observations of AOD at 31 AERONET stations. The new module is capable of reproducing the dust sources at finer detail. The overall performance of the model is improved, especially for stronger dust episodes with AOD > 0.25. For this threshold the model BIAS decreases from −0.20 to −0.02, the RMSE from 0.38 to 0.30, the Correlation Coefficient improves from 0.21 to 0.47, the fractional gross error (FGE) from 0.62 to 0.40, and the mean fractional bias (MFB) from −0.49 to −0.08. Similar improvement is also found for the lower AOD thresholds (>0.0 and >0.1), especially for the stations in Europe, the Mediterranean, Sahel, the Middle East, and Arabian Peninsula, which are mostly affected by dust transport during the experimental period. An overprediction of AOD, compared to the original dust-source scheme, is found for some stations in the Sahara desert, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Iberian Peninsula. In total, 124 out of the 170 statistical scores that are calculated indicate improvement of model performance.
Atmospheric-chemical coupled models usually parameterize sea-salt aerosol (SSA) emissions using whitecap fraction estimated considering only wind speed and ignoring sea state. This approach may ...introduce inaccuracies in SSA simulation. This study aims to assess the impact of sea state on SSA modeling, applying a new parameterization for whitecap fraction estimation based on wave age, calculated by the ratio between wave phase velocity and wind speed. To this end, the new parameterization was incorporated in the coupled Chemical Hydrological Atmospheric Ocean wave modeling System (CHAOS). CHAOS encompasses the wave model (WAM) two-way coupled through the OASIS3-MCT coupler with the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-ARW-Chem) and, thus, enabling the concurrent simulation of SSAs, wind speed and wave phase velocity. The simulation results were evaluated against in-situ and lidar measurements at 2 stations in Greece (Finokalia on 4 and 15 July 2014 and Antikythera-PANGEA on 15 September 2018). The results reveal significant differences between the parameterizations with the new one offering a more realistic representation of SSA levels in some layers of the lower atmosphere. This is attributed to the enhancement of the bubble-bursting mechanism representation with air-sea processes controlling whitecap fraction. Our findings also highlight the contribution of fresh wind-generated waves to SSA modeling.
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