Joint observations in electromagnetic and gravitational waves shed light on the physics of objects and surrounding environments with extreme gravity that are otherwise unreachable via siloed ...observations in each messenger. However, such detections remain challenging due to the rapid and faint nature of counterparts. Protocols for discovery and inference still rely on human experts manually inspecting survey alert streams and intuiting optimal usage of limited follow-up resources. Strategizing an optimal follow-up program requires adaptive sequential decision-making given evolving light curve data that (i) maximizes a global objective despite incomplete information and (ii) is robust to stochasticity introduced by detectors/observing conditions. Reinforcement learning (RL) approaches allow agents to implicitly learn the physics/detector dynamics and the behavior policy that maximize a designated objective through experience. To demonstrate the utility of such an approach for the kilonova follow-up problem, we train a toy RL agent for the goal of maximizing follow-up photometry for the true kilonova among several contaminant transient light curves. In a simulated environment where the agent learns online, it achieves 3x higher accuracy compared to a random strategy. However, it is surpassed by human agents by up to a factor of 2. This is likely because our hypothesis function (Q that is linear in state-action features) is an insufficient representation of the optimal behavior policy. More complex agents could perform at par or surpass human experts. Agents like these could pave the way for machine-directed software infrastructure to efficiently respond to next generation detectors, for conducting science inference and optimally planning expensive follow-up observations, scalably and with demonstrable performance guarantees.
Type IIb supernovae (SNe) are important candidates to understand mechanisms that drive the stripping of stripped-envelope (SE) supernova (SN) progenitors. While binary interactions and their high ...incidence are generally cited to favor them as Type IIb SN progenitors, this idea has not been tested using models covering a broad parameter space. In this paper, we use non-rotating single- and binary-star models at solar and low metallicities spanning a wide parameter space in primary mass, mass ratio, orbital period, and mass transfer efficiencies. We find that our single- and binary-star models contribute to roughly equal, however small, numbers of Type IIb SNe at solar metallicity. Binaries only dominate as progenitors at low metallicity. We also find that our models can account for less than half the observationally inferred rate for Type IIb SNe at solar metallicity, with computed rates ~<4% of core-collapse (CC) SNe. On the other hand, our models can account for the rates currently indicated by observations at low metallicity, with computed rates as high as 15% of CC SNe. However, this requires low mass transfer efficiencies (~<0.1) to prevent most progenitors from entering contact. We suggest that the stellar wind mass-loss rates at solar metallicity used in our models are too high. Lower mass-loss rates would widen the parameter space for binary Type IIb SNe at solar metallicity by allowing stars that initiate mass transfer earlier in their evolution to reach CC without getting fully stripped.
Type IIb supernovae (SNe IIb) present a unique opportunity for investigating the evolutionary channels and mechanisms governing the evolution of stripped-envelope SN progenitors due to a variety of ...observational constraints available. Comparison of these constraints with the full distribution of theoretical properties not only help ascertain the prevalence of observed properties in nature, but can also reveal currently unobserved populations. In this follow-up paper, we use the large grid of models presented in Sravan et al. 2019 to derive distributions of single and binary SNe IIb progenitor properties and compare them to constraints from three independent observational probes: multi-band SN light-curves, direct progenitor detections, and X-ray/radio observations. Consistent with previous work, we find that while current observations exclude single stars as SN IIb progenitors, SN IIb progenitors in binaries can account for them. We also find that the distributions indicate the existence of an unobserved dominant population of binary SNe IIb at low metallicity that arise due to mass transfer initiated on the Hertzsprung Gap. In particular, our models indicate the existence of a group of highly stripped (envelope mass ~0.1-0.2 M_sun) progenitors that are compact (<50 R_sun) and blue (T_eff <~ 10^5K) with ~10^4.5-10^5.5 L_sun and low density circumstellar mediums. As discussed in Sravan et al. 2019, this group is necessary to account for SN IIb fractions and likely exist regardless of metallicity. The detection of the unobserved populations indicated by our models would support weak stellar winds and inefficient mass transfer in SN IIb progenitors.
The deluge of data from time-domain surveys is rendering traditional human-guided data collection and inference techniques impractical. We propose a novel approach for conducting data collection for ...science inference in the era of massive large-scale surveys that uses value-based metrics to autonomously strategize and co-ordinate follow-up in real-time. We demonstrate the underlying principles in the Recommender Engine For Intelligent Transient Tracking (REFITT) that ingests live alerts from surveys and value-added inputs from data brokers to predict the future behavior of transients and design optimal data augmentation strategies given a set of scientific objectives. The prototype presented in this paper is tested to work given simulated Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) core-collapse supernova (CC SN) light-curves from the PLAsTiCC dataset. CC SNe were selected for the initial development phase as they are known to be difficult to classify, with the expectation that any learning techniques for them should be at least as effective for other transients. We demonstrate the behavior of REFITT on a random LSST night given ~32000 live CC SNe of interest. The system makes good predictions for the photometric behavior of the events and uses them to plan follow-up using a simple data-driven metric. We argue that machine-directed follow-up maximizes the scientific potential of surveys and follow-up resources by reducing downtime and bias in data collection.
Type IIb supernovae (SNe) present a unique opportunity for understanding the progenitors of stripped-envelope (SE) SNe as the stellar progenitor of several Type IIb SNe have been identified in ...pre-explosion images. In this paper, we use Bayesian inference and a large grid of non-rotating solar-metallicity single and binary stellar models to derive the associated probability distributions of single and binary progenitors of the Type IIb SN 2016gkg using existing observational constraints. We find that potential binary star progenitors have smaller pre-SN hydrogen-envelope and helium-core masses than potential single-star progenitors typically by 0.1 Msun and 2 Msun, respectively. We find that, a binary companion, if present, is a main-sequence or red-giant star. Apart from this, we do not find strong constraints on the nature of the companion star. We demonstrate that the range of progenitor helium-core mass inferred from observations could help improve constraints on the progenitor. We find that the probability that the progenitor of SN 2016gkg was a binary is 22% when we use constraints only on the progenitor luminosity and effective temperature. Imposing the range of pre-SN progenitor hydrogen-envelope mass and radius inferred from SN light-curves the probability the progenitor is a binary increases to 44%. However, there is no clear preference for a binary progenitor. This is in contrast to binaries being the currently favored formation channel for Type IIb SNe. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of statistical inference methods to constrain progenitor channels.
An advanced LIGO and Virgo's third observing run brought another binary neutron star merger (BNS) and the first neutron-star black hole mergers. While no confirmed kilonovae were identified in ...conjunction with any of these events, continued improvements of analyses surrounding GW170817 allow us to project constraints on the Hubble Constant (\(H_0\)), the Galactic enrichment from \(r\)-process nucleosynthesis, and ultra-dense matter possible from forthcoming events. Here, we describe the expected constraints based on the latest expected event rates from the international gravitational-wave network (IGWN) and analyses of GW170817. We show the expected detection rate of gravitational waves and their counterparts, as well as how sensitive potential constraints are to the observed numbers of counterparts. We intend this analysis as support for the community when creating scientifically driven electromagnetic follow-up proposals. During the next observing run O4, we predict an annual detection rate of electromagnetic counterparts from BNS of \(0.43^{+0.58}_{-0.26}\) (\(1.97^{+2.68}_{-1.2}\)) for the Zwicky Transient Facility (Rubin Observatory).
We present proper motion measurements of oxygen-rich ejecta of the LMC supernova remnant N132D using two epochs of Hubble Space Telescope Advanced Camera for Surveys data spanning 16 years. The ...proper motions of 120 individual knots of oxygen-rich gas were measured and used to calculate a center of expansion (CoE) of \(\alpha\)=05:25:01.71 and \(\delta\)=-69:38:41.64 (J2000) with a 1-\(\sigma\) uncertainty of 2.90 arcseconds. This new CoE measurement is 9.2 and 10.8 arcseconds from two previous CoE estimates based on the geometry of the optically emitting ejecta. We also derive an explosion age of 2770 \(\pm\) 500 yr, which is consistent with recent age estimates of \(\approx 2500\) yr made from 3D ejecta reconstructions. We verify our estimates of the CoE and age using a new automated procedure that detected and tracked the proper motions of 137 knots, with 73 knots that overlap with the visually identified knots. We find the proper motions of ejecta are still ballistic, despite the remnant's age, and are consistent with the notion that the ejecta are expanding into an ISM cavity. Evidence for explosion asymmetry from the parent supernova is also observed. Using the visually measured proper motion measurements and corresponding center of expansion and age, we compare N132D to other supernova remnants with proper motion ejecta studies.
We analyze a sample of 45 Type II supernovae from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) public survey using a grid of hydrodynamical models in order to assess whether theoretically-driven forecasts can ...intelligently guide follow up observations supporting all-sky survey alert streams. We estimate several progenitor properties and explosion physics parameters including zero-age-main-sequence (ZAMS) mass, mass-loss rate, kinetic energy, 56Ni mass synthesized, host extinction, and the time of explosion. Using complete light curves we obtain confident characterizations for 34 events in our sample, with the inferences of the remaining 11 events limited either by poorly constraining data or the boundaries of our model grid. We also simulate real-time characterization of alert stream data by comparing our model grid to various stages of incomplete light curves (t less than 25 days, t less than 50 days, all data), and find that some parameters are more reliable indicators of true values at early epochs than others. Specifically, ZAMS mass, time of explosion, steepness parameter beta, and host extinction are reasonably constrained with incomplete light curve data, whereas mass-loss rate, kinetic energy and 56Ni mass estimates generally require complete light curves spanning greater than 100 days. We conclude that real-time modeling of transients, supported by multi-band synthetic light curves tailored to survey passbands, can be used as a powerful tool to identify critical epochs of follow up observations. Our findings are relevant to identify, prioritize, and coordinate efficient follow up of transients discovered by Vera C. Rubin Observatory.
Measurements of the growth rate of structures at \(z < 0.1\) with peculiar velocity surveys have the potential of testing the validity of general relativity on cosmic scales. In this work, we present ...growth-rate measurements from realistic simulated sets of type-Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). We describe our simulation methodology, the light-curve fitting and peculiar velocity estimation. Using the maximum likelihood method, we derive constraints on \(f\sigma_8\) using only ZTF SN Ia peculiar velocities. We carefully tested the method and we quantified biases due to selection effects (photometric detection, spectroscopic follow-up for typing) on several independent realizations. We simulated the equivalent of 6 years of ZTF data, and considering an unbiased spectroscopically typed sample at \(z < 0.06\), we obtained unbiased estimates of \(f\sigma_8\) with an average uncertainty of 19% precision. We also investigated the information gain in applying bias correction methods. Our results validate our framework which can be used on real ZTF data.
During the first half of the fourth observing run (O4a) of the International Gravitational Wave Network (IGWN), the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) conducted a systematic search for kilonova (KN) ...counterparts to binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star-black hole (NSBH) merger candidates. Here, we present a comprehensive study of the five high-significance (FAR < 1 per year) BNS and NSBH candidates in O4a. Our follow-up campaigns relied on both target-of-opportunity observations (ToO) and re-weighting of the nominal survey schedule to maximize coverage. We describe the toolkit we have been developing, Fritz, an instance of SkyPortal, instrumental in coordinating and managing our telescope scheduling, candidate vetting, and follow-up observations through a user-friendly interface. ZTF covered a total of 2841 deg\(^2\) within the skymaps of the high-significance GW events, reaching a median depth of g~20.2 mag. We circulated 15 candidates, but found no viable KN counterpart to any of the GW events. Based on the ZTF non-detections of the high-significance events in O4a, we used a Bayesian approach, nimbus, to quantify the posterior probability of KN model parameters that are consistent with our non-detections. Our analysis favors KNe with initial absolute magnitude fainter than -16 mag. The joint posterior probability of a GW170817-like KN associated with all our O4a follow-ups was 64%. Additionally, we use a survey simulation software, simsurvey, to determine that our combined filtered efficiency to detect a GW170817-like KN is 36%, when considering the 5 confirmed astrophysical events in O3 (1 BNS and 4 NSBH), along with our O4a follow-ups. Following Kasliwal et al. (2020), we derived joint constraints on the underlying KN luminosity function based on our O3 and O4a follow-ups, determining that no more than 76% of KNe fading at 1 mag/day can peak at a magnitude brighter than -17.5 mag.
