Abstract Objectives A P -value <0.05 is one metric used to evaluate the results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). We wondered how often statistically significant results in RCTs may be lost ...with small changes in the numbers of outcomes. Study Design and Setting A review of RCTs in high-impact medical journals that reported a statistically significant result for at least one dichotomous or time-to-event outcome in the abstract. In the group with the smallest number of events, we changed the status of patients without an event to an event until the P -value exceeded 0.05. We labeled this number the Fragility Index; smaller numbers indicated a more fragile result. Results The 399 eligible trials had a median sample size of 682 patients (range: 15–112,604) and a median of 112 events (range: 8–5,142); 53% reported a P -value <0.01. The median Fragility Index was 8 (range: 0–109); 25% had a Fragility Index of 3 or less. In 53% of trials, the Fragility Index was less than the number of patients lost to follow-up. Conclusion The statistically significant results of many RCTs hinge on small numbers of events. The Fragility Index complements the P -value and helps identify less robust results.
The aim of this study was to assess the effects of pre-operative statin therapy on cardiovascular events in the first 30-days after non-cardiac surgery.
We conducted an international, prospective, ...cohort study of patients who were ≥45 years having in-patient non-cardiac surgery. We estimated the probability of receiving statins pre-operatively using a multivariable logistic model and conducted a propensity score analysis to correct for confounding. A total of 15 478 patients were recruited at 12 centres in eight countries from August 2007 to January 2011. The matched population consisted of 2845 patients (18.4%) treated with a statin and 4492 (29.0%) controls. The pre-operative use of statins was associated with lower risk of the primary outcome, a composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery (MINS), or stroke at 30 days relative risk (RR), 0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.73-0.95; P = 0.007. Statins were also associated with a significant lower risk of all-cause mortality (RR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.40-0.83; P = 0.003), cardiovascular mortality (RR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.23-0.76; P = 0.004), and MINS (RR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.73-0.98; P = 0.02). There were no statistically significant differences in the risk of myocardial infarction or stroke.
Among patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, pre-operative statin therapy was independently associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular outcomes at 30 days. These results require confirmation in a large randomized trial.
Clinical Trials.gov NCT00512109.
Little is known about the relationship between perioperative high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) measurements and 30-day mortality and myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS).
To determine ...the association between perioperative hsTnT measurements and 30-day mortality and potential diagnostic criteria for MINS (ie, myocardial injury due to ischemia associated with 30-day mortality).
Prospective cohort study of patients aged 45 years or older who underwent inpatient noncardiac surgery and had a postoperative hsTnT measurement. Starting in October 2008, participants were recruited at 23 centers in 13 countries; follow-up finished in December 2013.
Patients had hsTnT measurements 6 to 12 hours after surgery and daily for 3 days; 40.4% had a preoperative hsTnT measurement.
A modified Mazumdar approach (an iterative process) was used to determine if there were hsTnT thresholds associated with risk of death and had an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 3.0 or higher and a risk of 30-day mortality of 3% or higher. To determine potential diagnostic criteria for MINS, regression analyses ascertained if postoperative hsTnT elevations required an ischemic feature (eg, ischemic symptom or electrocardiography finding) to be associated with 30-day mortality.
Among 21 842 participants, the mean age was 63.1 (SD, 10.7) years and 49.1% were female. Death within 30 days after surgery occurred in 266 patients (1.2%; 95% CI, 1.1%-1.4%). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that compared with the reference group (peak hsTnT <5 ng/L), peak postoperative hsTnT levels of 20 to less than 65 ng/L, 65 to less than 1000 ng/L, and 1000 ng/L or higher had 30-day mortality rates of 3.0% (123/4049; 95% CI, 2.6%-3.6%), 9.1% (102/1118; 95% CI, 7.6%-11.0%), and 29.6% (16/54; 95% CI, 19.1%-42.8%), with corresponding adjusted HRs of 23.63 (95% CI, 10.32-54.09), 70.34 (95% CI, 30.60-161.71), and 227.01 (95% CI, 87.35-589.92), respectively. An absolute hsTnT change of 5 ng/L or higher was associated with an increased risk of 30-day mortality (adjusted HR, 4.69; 95% CI, 3.52-6.25). An elevated postoperative hsTnT (ie, 20 to <65 ng/L with an absolute change ≥5 ng/L or hsTnT ≥65 ng/L) without an ischemic feature was associated with 30-day mortality (adjusted HR, 3.20; 95% CI, 2.37-4.32). Among the 3904 patients (17.9%; 95% CI, 17.4%-18.4%) with MINS, 3633 (93.1%; 95% CI, 92.2%-93.8%) did not experience an ischemic symptom.
Among patients undergoing noncardiac surgery, peak postoperative hsTnT during the first 3 days after surgery was significantly associated with 30-day mortality. Elevated postoperative hsTnT without an ischemic feature was also associated with 30-day mortality.
ABSTRACTBACKGROUNDAmong adults undergoing contemporary noncardiac surgery, little is known about the frequency and timing of death and the associations between perioperative complications and ...mortality. We aimed to establish the frequency and timing of death and its association with perioperative complications.METHODSWe conducted a prospective cohort study of patients aged 45 years and older who underwent inpatient noncardiac surgery at 28 centres in 14 countries. We monitored patients for complications until 30 days after surgery and determined the relation between these complications and 30-day mortality using a Cox proportional hazards model.RESULTSWe included 40 004 patients. Of those, 715 patients (1.8%) died within 30 days of surgery. Five deaths (0.7%) occurred in the operating room, 500 deaths (69.9%) occurred after surgery during the index admission to hospital and 210 deaths (29.4%) occurred after discharge from the hospital. Eight complications were independently associated with 30-day mortality. The 3 complications with the largest attributable fractions (AF; i.e., potential proportion of deaths attributable to these complications) were major bleeding (6238 patients, 15.6%; adjusted hazard ratio HR 2.6, 95% confidence interval CI 2.2–3.1; AF 17.0%); myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery MINS (5191 patients, 13.0%; adjusted HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.9–2.6; AF 15.9%); and sepsis (1783 patients, 4.5%; adjusted HR 5.6, 95% CI 4.6–6.8; AF 12.0%).INTERPRETATIONAmong adults undergoing noncardiac surgery, 99.3% of deaths occurred after the procedure and 44.9% of deaths were associated with 3 complications: major bleeding, MINS and sepsis. Given these findings, focusing on the prevention, early identification and management of these 3 complications holds promise for reducing perioperative mortality. Study registration:ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT00512109.
Objective To investigate the credibility of authors’ claims of subgroup effects using a representative sample of recently published randomised controlled trials.Design Systematic review.Data source ...Core clinical journals, as defined by the National Library of Medicine, in Medline.Study selection Randomised controlled trials published in 2007. Using prespecified criteria, teams of trained reviewers independently judged whether authors claimed subgroup effects and the strength of their claims. Reviewers assessed each of these claims against 10 predefined criteria, developed through a search of existing criteria and a consensus process.Results Of 207 randomised controlled trials reporting subgroup analyses, 64 (31%) made claims for the primary outcome. Of those, 20 were strong claims and 28 claims of a likely effect. Authors included subgroup variables measured at baseline in 60 (94%) trials, used subgroup variable as a stratification factor at randomisation in 13 (20%), clearly prespecified their hypotheses in 26 (41%), correctly prespecified direction in 4 (6%), tested a small number of hypotheses in 28 (44%), carried out a test of interaction that proved statistically significant in 6 (9%), documented replication of a subgroup effect with previous related studies in 21 (33%), identified consistency of a subgroup effect across related outcomes in 19 (30%), and provided a compelling indirect evidence for the effect in 14 (22%). In the 19 trials making more than one claim, only one (5%) checked the independence of the interaction. Of the 64 claims, 54 (84%) met four or fewer of the 10 criteria. For strong claims, more than 50% failed each of the individual criteria, and only three (15%) met more than five criteria.Conclusion Authors often claim subgroup effects in their trial report. However, the credibility of subgroup effects, even when claims are strong, is usually low. Users of the information should treat claims that fail to meet most criteria with scepticism. Trial researchers should report the conduct of subgroup analyses and provide sufficient evidence when claiming a subgroup effect or suggesting a possible effect.
Abstract
Aims
To determine the 1-year risk of stroke and other adverse outcomes in patients with a new diagnosis of perioperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after non-cardiac surgery.
Methods and ...results
The PeriOperative ISchemic Evaluation (POISE)-1 trial evaluated the effects of metoprolol vs. placebo in 8351 patients, and POISE-2 compared the effect of aspirin vs. placebo, and clonidine vs. placebo in 10 010 patients. These trials included patients with, or at risk of, cardiovascular disease who were undergoing non-cardiac surgery. For the purpose of this study, we combined the POISE datasets, excluding 244 patients who were in atrial fibrillation (AF) at the time of randomization. Perioperative atrial fibrillation was defined as new AF that occurred within 30 days after surgery. Our primary outcome was the incidence of stroke at 1 year of follow-up; secondary outcomes were mortality and myocardial infarction (MI). We compared outcomes among patients with and without POAF using multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Among 18 117 patients (mean age 69 years, 57.4% male), 404 had POAF (2.2%). The stroke incidence 1 year after surgery was 5.58 vs. 1.54 per 100 patient-years in patients with and without POAF, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 3.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.00–5.90; P < 0.001. Patients with POAF also had an increased risk of death (incidence 31.37 vs. 9.34; aHR 2.51, 95% CI 2.01–3.14; P < 0.001) and MI (incidence 26.20 vs. 8.23; aHR 5.10, 95% CI 3.91–6.64; P < 0.001).
Conclusion
Patients with POAF have a significantly increased risk of stroke, MI, and death at 1 year. Intervention studies are needed to evaluate risk reduction strategies in this high-risk population.
Every year, close to two million people world-wide are diagnosed with and die of lung cancer. Most patients present with advanced-stage cancer with limited curative options and poor prognosis. ...Diagnosis of lung cancer at an early stage provides the best chance for a cure. Low- dose CT screening of the chest in the high-risk population is the current standard of care for early detection of lung cancer. However, CT screening is invasive due to radiation exposure and carries the risk of unnecessary biopsies in non-cancerous tumors. In this pilot study, we present metabolic alterations observed in sputum and breath condensate of the
same
population of early- stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients cancer before and after surgical resection (SR), which could serve as noninvasive diagnostic tool. Exhaled breath condensate (EBC) (n=35) and sputum (n=15) were collected from early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients before and after SR. Median number of days for EBC and sputum collection before and after SR were 7 and 42; and 7 and 36 respectively Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and liquid chromatography quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC-QTOF-MS) were used to analyze the metabolic profile of the collected samples. A total of 26 metabolites with significant alteration post SR were identified, of which 14 (54%) were lipids and 12 constituted nine different chemical metabolite classes. Eighteen metabolites (69%) were significantly upregulated and 8 (31%) were downregulated. Median fold change for all the up- and downregulated metabolites (LC-QTOF-MS) were 10 and 8, respectively. Median fold change (MFC) in concentration of all the up- and downregulated metabolites (NMR) were 0.04 and 0.27, respectively. Furthermore, glucose (median fold change, 0.01, p=0.037), adenosine monophosphate (13 log fold, p=0.0037) and N1, N12- diacetylspermine (8 log fold p=0.011) sputum levels were significantly increased post-SR. These identified sputa and EBC indices of altered metabolism could serve as basis for further exploration of biomarkers for early detection of lung cancer, treatment response, and targets for drug discovery. Validation of these promising results by larger clinical studies is warranted.
To determine the prognostic relevance, clinical characteristics, and 30-day outcomes associated with myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) in vascular surgical patients.
MINS has been ...independently associated with 30-day mortality after noncardiac surgery. The characteristics and prognostic importance of MINS in vascular surgery patients are poorly described.
This was an international prospective cohort study of 15,102 noncardiac surgery patients 45 years or older, of whom 502 patients underwent vascular surgery. All patients had fourth-generation plasma troponin T (TnT) concentrations measured during the first 3 postoperative days. MINS was defined as a TnT of 0.03 ng/mL of higher secondary to ischemia. The objectives of the present study were to determine (i) if MINS is prognostically important in vascular surgical patients, (ii) the clinical characteristics of vascular surgery patients with and without MINS, (iii) the 30-day outcomes for vascular surgery patients with and without MINS, and (iv) the proportion of MINS that probably would have gone undetected without routine troponin monitoring.
The incidence of MINS in the vascular surgery patients was 19.1% (95% confidence interval (CI), 15.7%-22.6%). 30-day all-cause mortality in the vascular cohort was 12.5% (95% CI 7.3%-20.6%) in patients with MINS compared with 1.5% (95% CI 0.7%-3.2%) in patients without MINS (P < 0.001). MINS was independently associated with 30-day mortality in vascular patients (odds ratio, 9.48; 95% CI, 3.46-25.96). The 30-day mortality was similar in MINS patients with (15.0%; 95% CI, 7.1-29.1) and without an ischemic feature (12.2%; 95% CI, 5.3-25.5, P = 0.76). The proportion of vascular surgery patients who suffered MINS without overt evidence of myocardial ischemia was 74.1% (95% CI, 63.6-82.4).
Approximately 1 in 5 patients experienced MINS after vascular surgery. MINS was independently associated with 30-day mortality. The majority of patients with MINS were asymptomatic and would have gone undetected without routine postoperative troponin measurement.
Metabolic alterations in malignant cells play a vital role in tumor initiation, proliferation, and metastasis. Biofluids from patients with non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) harbor metabolic ...biomarkers with potential clinical applications. In this study, we assessed the changes in the metabolic profile of patients with early-stage NSCLC using mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy before and after surgical resection. A single cohort of 35 patients provided a total of 29 and 32 pairs of urine and serum samples, respectively, pre-and post-surgery. We identified a profile of 48 metabolites that were significantly different pre- and post-surgery: 17 in urine and 31 in serum. A higher proportion of metabolites were upregulated than downregulated post-surgery (p < 0.01); however, the median fold change (FC) was higher for downregulated than upregulated metabolites (p < 0.05). Purines/pyrimidines and proteins had a larger dysregulation than other classes of metabolites (p < 0.05 for each class). Several of the dysregulated metabolites have been previously associated with cancer, including leucyl proline, asymmetric dimethylarginine, isopentenyladenine, fumaric acid (all downregulated post-surgery), as well as N6-methyladenosine and several deoxycholic acid moieties, which were upregulated post-surgery. This study establishes metabolomic analysis of biofluids as a path to non-invasive diagnostics, screening, and monitoring in NSCLC.
Abstract Objective To compare methodological characteristics of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in higher vs. lower impact Core Clinical Journals. Study Design and Setting We searched ...MEDLINE for RCTs published in 2007 in Core Clinical Journals. We randomly sampled 1,140 study reports in a 1:1 ratio in higher (five general medicine journals with the highest total citations in 2007) and lower impact journals. Results Four hundred sixty-nine RCTs proved eligible: 219 in higher and 250 in lower impact journals. RCTs in higher vs. lower impact journals had larger sample sizes (median, 285 vs. 39), were more likely to receive industry funding (53% vs. 28%), declare concealment of allocation (66% vs. 36%), declare blinding of health care providers (53% vs. 41%) and outcome adjudicators (72% vs. 54%), report a patient-important primary outcome (69% vs. 50%), report subgroup analyses (64% vs. 26%), prespecify subgroup hypotheses (42% vs. 20%), and report a test for interaction (54% vs. 27%); P < 0.05 for all differences. Conclusion RCTs published in higher impact journals were more likely to report methodological safeguards against bias and patient-important outcomes than those published in lower impact journals. However, sufficient limitations remain such that publication in a higher impact journal does not ensure low risk of bias.
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