Climate change vulnerability assessment of species Foden, Wendy B.; Young, Bruce E.; Akçakaya, H. Resit ...
Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change,
January/February 2019, Letnik:
10, Številka:
1
Journal Article
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Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to conserve them. The last three decades have seen exponential growth in the number of studies ...evaluating how, how much, why, when, and where species will be impacted by climate change. We provide an overview of the rapidly developing field of climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) and describe key concepts, terms, steps and considerations. We stress the importance of identifying the full range of pressures, impacts and their associated mechanisms that species face and using this as a basis for selecting the appropriate assessment approaches for quantifying vulnerability. We outline four CCVA assessment approaches, namely trait‐based, correlative, mechanistic and combined approaches and discuss their use. Since any assessment can deliver unreliable or even misleading results when incorrect data and parameters are applied, we discuss finding, selecting, and applying input data and provide examples of open‐access resources. Because rare, small‐range, and declining‐range species are often of particular conservation concern while also posing significant challenges for CCVA, we describe alternative ways to assess them. We also describe how CCVAs can be used to inform IUCN Red List assessments of extinction risk. Finally, we suggest future directions in this field and propose areas where research efforts may be particularly valuable.
This article is categorized under:
Climate, Ecology, and Conservation > Extinction Risk
Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change is becoming a prerequisite for conservation planning, but choosing approaches, methods and data can be challenging. Key to informing such choices is consideration of the full range of climate change pressures and their likely mechanisms of impact on individuals, subpopulations and species. Navigate a sound path through do's and don'ts, and explore resources and future perspectives in this exciting field.
Summary Background Previous trials have shown that anti-EGFR monoclonal antibodies can improve clinical outcomes of patients with recurrent or metastatic squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck ...(SCCHN). We assessed the efficacy and safety of panitumumab combined with cisplatin and fluorouracil as first-line treatment for these patients. Methods This open-label phase 3 randomised trial was done at 126 sites in 26 countries. Eligible patients were aged at least 18 years; had histologically or cytologically confirmed SCCHN; had distant metastatic or locoregionally recurrent disease, or both, that was deemed to be incurable by surgery or radiotherapy; had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 1 or less; and had adequate haematological, renal, hepatic, and cardiac function. Patients were randomly assigned according to a computer-generated randomisation sequence (1:1; stratified by previous treatment, primary tumour site, and performance status) to one of two groups. Patients in both groups received up to six 3-week cycles of intravenous cisplatin (100 mg/m2 on day 1 of each cycle) and fluorouracil (1000 mg/m2 on days 1–4 of each cycle); those in the experimental group also received intravenous panitumumab (9 mg/kg on day 1 of each cycle). Patients in the experimental group could choose to continue maintenance panitumumab every 3 weeks. The primary endpoint was overall survival and was analysed by intention to treat. In a prospectively defined retrospective analysis, we assessed tumour human papillomavirus (HPV) status as a potential predictive biomarker of outcomes with a validated p16-INK4A (henceforth, p16) immunohistochemical assay. Patients and investigators were aware of group assignment; study statisticians were masked until primary analysis; and the central laboratory assessing p16 status was masked to identification of patients and treatment. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT00460265. Findings Between May 15, 2007, and March 10, 2009, we randomly assigned 657 patients: 327 to the panitumumab group and 330 to the control group. Median overall survival was 11·1 months (95% CI 9·8–12·2) in the panitumumab group and 9·0 months (8·1–11·2) in the control group (hazard ratio HR 0·873, 95% CI 0·729–1·046; p=0·1403). Median progression-free survival was 5·8 months (95% CI 5·6–6·6) in the panitumumab group and 4·6 months (4·1–5·4) in the control group (HR 0·780, 95% CI 0·659–0·922; p=0·0036). Several grade 3 or 4 adverse events were more frequent in the panitumumab group than in the control group: skin or eye toxicity (62 19% of 325 included in safety analyses vs six 2% of 325), diarrhoea (15 5% vs four 1%), hypomagnesaemia (40 12% vs 12 4%), hypokalaemia (33 10% vs 23 7%), and dehydration (16 5% vs seven 2%). Treatment-related deaths occurred in 14 patients (4%) in the panitumumab group and eight (2%) in the control group. Five (2%) of the fatal adverse events in the panitumumab group were attributed to the experimental agent. We had appropriate samples to assess p16 status for 443 (67%) patients, of whom 99 (22%) were p16 positive. Median overall survival in patients with p16-negative tumours was longer in the panitumumab group than in the control group (11·7 months 95% CI 9·7–13·7 vs 8·6 months 6·9–11·1; HR 0·73 95% CI 0·58–0·93; p=0·0115), but this difference was not shown for p16-positive patients (11·0 months 7·3–12·9 vs 12·6 months 7·7–17·4; 1·00 0·62–1·61; p=0·998). In the control group, p16-positive patients had numerically, but not statistically, longer overall survival than did p16-negative patients (HR 0·70 95% CI 0·47–1·04). Interpretation Although the addition of panitumumab to chemotherapy did not improve overall survival in an unselected population of patients with recurrent or metastatic SCCHN, it improved progression-free survival and had an acceptable toxicity profile. p16 status could be a prognostic and predictive marker in patients treated with panitumumab and chemotherapy. Prospective assessment will be necessary to validate our biomarker findings. Funding Amgen Inc.
Assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change serves as the basis for climate-adaptation planning and climate-smart conservation, and typically involves an evaluation of exposure, ...sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (AC). AC is a species’ ability to cope with or adjust to changing climatic conditions, and is the least understood and most inconsistently applied of these three factors. We propose an attribute-based framework for evaluating the AC of species, identifying two general classes of adaptive responses: “persist in place” and “shift in space”. Persist-in- place attributes enable species to survive in situ, whereas the shift-in- space response emphasizes attributes that facilitate tracking of suitable bioclimatic conditions. We provide guidance for assessing AC attributes and demonstrate the framework’s application for species with disparate life histories. Results illustrate the broad utility of this generalized framework for informing adaptation planning and guiding species conservation in a rapidly changing climate.
US conservation atlas needs biodiversity data Carroll, C; Noss, R F; Stein, Bruce A
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
04/2022, Letnik:
376, Številka:
6589
Journal Article
Comprehensive biodiversity assessments play an essential role in strengthening global and national conservation strategies. The recently announced first U.S. National Nature Assessment (NNA) provides ...an unparalleled opportunity to comprehensively review status and trends of biodiversity at all levels. This broad context can help in the coordination of actions to conserve individual species and ecosystems. The scientific assessments that informed the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework adopted at the 2022 Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) conference of parties provide models for synthesizing information on trends at multiple levels of biodiversity, including decline in abundance and distribution of species, loss of populations and genetic diversity, and degradation and loss of ecosystems and their services. The assessments then relate these trends to data on drivers of biodiversity loss and pathways to their mitigation. The U.S. NNA can augment such global analyses and avoid the pitfalls encountered by previous U.S. efforts by ensuring policy-relevant design, data accessibility, and inclusivity in process and product and by incorporating spatial data relevant to national and subnational audiences. Although the United States is not formally a CBD party, an effective NNA should take full advantage of the global context by including indicators adopted at the 2022 meeting and incorporating an independent review mechanism that supports periodic stocktaking and ratcheting up of ambition in response to identified shortfalls in stemming biodiversity loss. The challenges to design of an effective U.S. assessment are relevant globally as nations develop assessments and reporting to support the new global biodiversity framework's targets. By considering and incorporating the diverse ways in which society values and benefits from nature, such assessments can help bridge the gap between research and conservation practice and communicate the extent of the biodiversity crisis to the public, fostering broad-based support for transformative change in humanity's relationship to the natural world.
Nocturnal hypoglycemia can cause seizures and is a major impediment to tight glycemic control, especially in young children with type 1 diabetes. We conducted an in-home randomized trial to assess ...the efficacy and safety of a continuous glucose monitor-based overnight predictive low-glucose suspend (PLGS) system.
In two age-groups of children with type 1 diabetes (11-14 and 4-10 years of age), a 42-night trial for each child was conducted wherein each night was assigned randomly to either having the PLGS system active (intervention night) or inactive (control night). The primary outcome was percent time <70 mg/dL overnight.
Median time at <70 mg/dL was reduced by 54% from 10.1% on control nights to 4.6% on intervention nights (P < 0.001) in 11-14-year-olds (n = 45) and by 50% from 6.2% to 3.1% (P < 0.001) in 4-10-year-olds (n = 36). Mean overnight glucose was lower on control versus intervention nights in both age-groups (144 ± 18 vs. 152 ± 19 mg/dL P < 0.001 and 153 ± 14 vs. 160 ± 16 mg/dL P = 0.004, respectively). Mean morning blood glucose was 159 ± 29 vs. 176 ± 28 mg/dL (P < 0.001) in the 11-14-year-olds and 154 ± 25 vs. 158 ± 22 mg/dL (P = 0.11) in the 4-10-year-olds, respectively. No differences were found between intervention and control in either age-group in morning blood ketosis.
In 4-14-year-olds, use of a nocturnal PLGS system can substantially reduce overnight hypoglycemia without an increase in morning ketosis, although overnight mean glucose is slightly higher.
This paper provides a synthesis of the recent literature describing how global biodiversity is being affected by climate change and is projected to respond in the future. Current studies reinforce ...earlier findings of major climate-change-related impacts on biological systems and document new, more subtle after-effects. For example, many species are shifting their distributions and phenologies at faster rates than were recorded just a few years ago; however, responses are not uniform across species. Shifts have been idiosyncratic and in some cases counterintuitive, promoting new community compositions and altering biotic interactions. Although genetic diversity enhances species' potential to respond to variable conditions, climate change may outpace intrinsic adaptive capacities and increase the relative vulnerabilities of many organisms. Developing effective adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation will not only require flexible decision-making and management approaches that account for uncertainties in climate projections and ecological responses but will also necessitate coordinated monitoring efforts.
Nature-based solutions (NbS) involve the reliance on natural or nature-based systems to enhance community resilience through delivering both climate adaptation and mitigation outcomes. While NbS do ...not necessarily represent new “technology” or methods, the intentional incorporation of these approaches into climate adaptation and mitigation efforts is often considered novel, particularly within the climate services sector where interventions have historically prioritized structural infrastructure approaches. NbS can offer an effective replacement for or complement to such traditional infrastructure approaches. Additionally, natural and nature-based systems can respond to climate change in a manner that engineered solutions often cannot, providing long-term holistic adaptation and mitigation success with additional benefits to ecosystem services such as improved air and water quality, carbon sequestration, outdoor recreation, and biodiversity protection. The incorporation of NbS as a core component of climate services increases the likelihood of adoption and effective implementation, ensuring greater long-term effectiveness for both communities and the natural systems on which they depend. This article supports the adoption and effective implementation of NbS by climate service providers through presenting a set of seven “key considerations” for their use in community-based adaptation. These key considerations are based on a review of work in the field to date, both within the United States and globally. Although these key considerations were developed in support of US adaptation planning applications (specifically, the US Climate Resilience Toolkit), they have global relevance.
The emerging field of climate-change adaptation has experienced a dramatic increase in attention as the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystems have become more evident. Preparing ...for and addressing these changes are now prominent themes in conservation and natural resource policy and practice. Adaptation increasingly is viewed as a way of managing change, rather than just maintaining existing conditions. There is also increasing recognition of the need not only to adjust management strategies in light of climate shifts, but to reassess and, as needed, modify underlying conservation goals. Major advances in the development of climate-adaptation principles, strategies, and planning processes have occurred over the past few years, although implementation of adaptation plans continues to lag. With ecosystems expected to undergo continuing climate-mediated changes for years to come, adaptation can best be thought of as an ongoing process, rather than as a fixed endpoint.
The US government has multiple responsibilities for the protection of endangered species, many of them stemming from its role as the nation's largest landowner. To explore how endangered and ...imperiled species are distributed across the federal estate, we carried out a geographic information system (GIS)-based analysis using natural heritage species occurrence data. In this 10-year update of a previous analysis, we found that the Department of Defense and the USDA Forest Service harbor more species with formal status under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) than other US agencies. The densities of ESA status species and imperiled species are at least three times higher on military lands—2.92 and 3.77, respectively, per 100,000 hectares—than on any other agency's lands. Defense installations in Hawaii are especially significant; more than one-third of all ESA status species on military lands are Hawaiian. These findings highlight the continued importance of public lands for the survival of America's plant and animal species.
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