Abstract Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an extremely common clinical problem with an important population morbidity and mortality burden. The management of AF is complex and fraught with many uncertain ...and contentious issues, which are being addressed by extensive ongoing basic and clinical research. The Canadian Cardiovascular Society AF Guidelines Committee produced an extensive set of evidence-based AF management guidelines in 2010 and updated them in the areas of anticoagulation and rate/rhythm control in 2012. In late 2013, the committee judged that sufficient new information regarding AF management had become available since 2012 to warrant an update to the Canadian Cardiovascular Society AF Guidelines. After extensive evaluation of the new evidence, the committee has updated the guidelines for: (1) stroke prevention principles; (2) anticoagulation of AF patients with chronic kidney disease; (3) detection of AF in patients with stroke; (4) investigation and management of subclinical AF; (5) left atrial appendage closure in stroke prevention; (6) emergency department management of AF; (7) periprocedural anticoagulation management; and (8) rate and rhythm control including catheter ablation. This report presents the details of the updated recommendations, along with their background and rationale. In addition, a complete set of presently applicable recommendations, those that have been updated and those that remain in force from previous guideline versions, is provided in the Supplementary Material.
Readmissions to hospital are common, costly and often preventable. An easy-to-use index to quantify the risk of readmission or death after discharge from hospital would help clinicians identify ...patients who might benefit from more intensive post-discharge care. We sought to derive and validate an index to predict the risk of death or unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge from hospital to the community.
In a prospective cohort study, 48 patient-level and admission-level variables were collected for 4812 medical and surgical patients who were discharged to the community from 11 hospitals in Ontario. We used a split-sample design to derive and validate an index to predict the risk of death or nonelective readmission within 30 days after discharge. This index was externally validated using administrative data in a random selection of 1,000,000 Ontarians discharged from hospital between 2004 and 2008.
Of the 4812 participating patients, 385 (8.0%) died or were readmitted on an unplanned basis within 30 days after discharge. Variables independently associated with this outcome (from which we derived the mnemonic "LACE") included length of stay ("L"); acuity of the admission ("A"); comorbidity of the patient (measured with the Charlson comorbidity index score) ("C"); and emergency department use (measured as the number of visits in the six months before admission) ("E"). Scores using the LACE index ranged from 0 (2.0% expected risk of death or urgent readmission within 30 days) to 19 (43.7% expected risk). The LACE index was discriminative (C statistic 0.684) and very accurate (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic 14.1, p=0.59) at predicting outcome risk.
The LACE index can be used to quantify risk of death or unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge from hospital. This index can be used with both primary and administrative data. Further research is required to determine whether such quantification changes patient care or outcomes.
Abstract Background Very elderly (80 years of age and above) critically ill patients admitted to Medical ICUs have a high incidence of mortality, prolonged hospital length of stay, and living in a ...dependent state should they survive. Objective To develop a clinical prediction tool for hospital mortality in order to improve future end-of-life decision making for very elderly patients who are admitted to Canadian ICUs. Design. A prospective, multicenter cohort study. Setting. Data from 1033 very elderly medical patients admitted to 22 Canadian academic and non-academic ICUs. Interventions. A univariate analysis of selected predictors to ascertain prognostic power was performed, followed by multivariable logistic regression to derive the final prediction tool. Main Results. We included 1033 elderly patients in the analyses. Mean age was 84.6 ± 3.5 years, 55% were male, mean APACHE II score 23.1 ± 7.9, SOFA score was 5.3 ± 3.4, median ICU length of stay was 4.1(IQR 6.2) days, median hospital length of stay was 16.2(IQR 25.0) days and ICU mortality and all cause hospital mortality were 27% and 41%, respectively. Important predictors of hospital mortality at the time of ICU admission include: age 85–90 years of age had an odds ratio of hospital mortality of 1.63 (1.04–2.56), > 90 years of age had an odds ratio of hospital mortality of 2.64 (1.27–5.48), serum creatinine 120–300 had an odds ratio of hospital mortality of 1.57 (1.01–2.44), > 300 had an odds ratio of hospital mortality of 5.29 (2.43–11.51), GCS 13–14 had an odds ratio of hospital mortality of 2.09 (1.09–3.98), 8–12 had an odds ratio of hospital mortality of 2.31 (1.34–3.97), 4–7 had an odds ratio of hospital mortality of 5.75 (3.02–10.95), 3 had an odds ratio of hospital mortality of 8.97 (3.70–21.74), and serum pH < 7.15 had an odds ratio of hospital mortality of 2.44 (1.07–5.60). Conclusion We identified high risk characteristics for hospital mortality in the elderly population and developed a Risk Scale that may be used to inform discussions regarding goals of care in the future. Further study is warranted to validate the Risk Scale in other settings and evaluate its impact on clinical decision-making.
Study objective Survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest depends on the links in the chain of survival. The Utstein elements are designed to assess these links and provide the basis for ...comparing outcomes within and across communities. We assess whether these measures sufficiently predict survival and explain outcome differences. Methods We used an observational, prospective data collection, case-series of adult persons with nontraumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest from December 1, 2005, through March 1, 2007, from the multisite, population-based Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium Epistry–Cardiac Arrest. We used logistic regression, receiver operating curves, and measures of variance to estimate the extent to which the Utstein elements predicted survival to hospital discharge and explained outcome variability overall and between 7 Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium sites. Analyses were conducted for all emergency medical services–treated cardiac arrests and for the subset of bystander-witnessed patient arrests because of presumed cardiac cause presenting with ventricular fibrillation or ventricular tachycardia. Results Survival was 7.8% overall (n=833/10,681) and varied from 4.6% to 14.7% across Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium sites. Among bystander-witnessed ventricular fibrillation or ventricular tachycardia, survival was 22.1% overall (n=323/1459) and varied from 12.5% to 41.0% across sites. The Utstein elements collectively predicted 72% of survival variability among all arrests and 40% of survival variability among bystander-witnessed ventricular fibrillation. The Utstein elements accounted for 43.6% of the between-site survival difference among all arrests and 22.3% of the between-site difference among the bystander-witnessed ventricular fibrillation subset. Conclusion The Utstein elements predict survival but account for only a modest portion of outcome variability overall and between Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium sites. The results underscore the need for ongoing investigation to better understand characteristics that influence cardiac arrest survival.
Study objective Recent-onset atrial fibrillation and flutter are the most common arrhythmias managed in the emergency department (ED). We evaluate the management and 30-day outcomes for recent-onset ...atrial fibrillation and flutter patients in Canadian EDs, where cardioversion is commonly practiced. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study in 6 academic hospital EDs and enrolled patients who had atrial fibrillation and flutter onset within 48 hours. Patients were followed for 30 days by health records review and telephone. Adverse events included death, stroke, acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, subsequent admission, or ED electrocardioversion. Results We enrolled 1,091 patients with mean age 63.9 years, atrial fibrillation 84.7%, atrial flutter 15.3%, hospital admission 9.0%, and converted to sinus rhythm 80.1%. Although 10.5% of recent-onset atrial fibrillation and flutter patients had adverse events within 30 days, there were no related deaths and 1 stroke (0.1%). Adjusted odds ratios for factors associated with adverse event were hours from onset (1.03/hour; 95% confidence interval CI 1.01 to 1.05), history of stroke or transient ischemic attack (2.09; 95% CI 1.01 to 4.36), and pulmonary congestion on chest radiograph (7.37; 95% CI 2.40 to 22.64). Patients who left the ED in sinus rhythm were much less likely to experience an adverse event ( P <.001). Conclusion Although most recent-onset atrial fibrillation and flutter patients were treated aggressively in the ED, there were few 30-day serious outcomes. Physicians underprescribed oral anticoagulants. Potential risk factors for adverse events include longer duration from arrhythmia onset, previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, pulmonary congestion on chest radiograph, and not being in sinus rhythm at discharge. An ED strategy of sinus rhythm restoration and discharge in most patients is effective and safe.
To date, the benefit of prehospital advanced life-support programs on trauma-related mortality and morbidity has not been established
The Ontario Prehospital Advanced Life Support (OPALS) Major ...Trauma Study was a before-after systemwide controlled clinical trial conducted in 17 cities. We enrolled adult patients who had experienced major trauma in a basic life-support phase and a subsequent advanced life-support phase (during which paramedics were able to perform endotracheal intubation and administer fluids and drugs intravenously). The primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge.
Among the 2867 patients enrolled in the basic life-support (n = 1373) and advanced life-support (n = 1494) phases, characteristics were similar, including mean age (44.8 v. 47.5 years), frequency of blunt injury (92.0% v. 91.4%), median injury severity score (24 v. 22) and percentage of patients with Glasgow Coma Scale score less than 9 (27.2% v. 22.1%). Survival did not differ overall (81.1% among patients in the advanced life-support phase v. 81.8% among those in the basic life-support phase; p = 0.65). Among patients with Glasgow Coma Scale score less than 9, survival was lower among those in the advanced life-support phase (50.9% v. 60.0%; p = 0.02). The adjusted odds of death for the advanced life-support v. basic life-support phases were nonsignificant (1.2, 95% confidence interval 0.9-1.7; p = 0.16).
The OPALS Major Trauma Study showed that systemwide implementation of full advanced life-support programs did not decrease mortality or morbidity for major trauma patients. We also found that during the advanced life-support phase, mortality was greater among patients with Glasgow Coma Scale scores less than 9. We believe that emergency medical services should carefully re-evaluate the indications for and application of prehospital advanced life-support measures for patients who have experienced major trauma.
Study objective Evaluation of emergency department (ED) patients with chest pain who are at low risk for acute coronary syndrome is resource intensive and may lead to false-positive test results and ...unnecessary downstream procedures. We seek to identify patients at low short-term risk for a cardiac event for whom additional ED investigations might be unnecessary. Methods We prospectively enrolled patients older than 24 years and with a primary complaint of chest pain from 3 academic EDs. Physicians completed standardized data collection forms before diagnostic testing. The primary adjudicated outcome was acute myocardial infarction, revascularization, or death of cardiac or unknown cause within 30 days. We used recursive partitioning to derive the rule and validated the model with 5,000 bootstrap replications. Results Of 2,718 patients enrolled, 336 (12%) experienced a cardiac event within 30 days (6% acute myocardial infarction, 10% revascularization, 0.2% death). We developed a rule consisting of the absence of 5 predictors: ischemic ECG changes not known to be old, history of coronary artery disease, pain typical for acute coronary syndrome, initial or 6-hour troponin level greater than the 99th percentile, and age greater than 50 years. Patients aged 40 years or younger required only a single troponin evaluation. The rule was 100% sensitive (95% confidence interval 97.2% to 100.0%) and 20.9% specific (95% confidence interval 16.9% to 24.9%) for a cardiac event within 30 days. Conclusion This clinical prediction rule identifies ED chest pain patients at very low risk for a cardiac event who may be suitable for discharge. A prospective multicenter study is needed to validate the rule and determine its effect on practice.
Abstract Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia managed by emergency physicians. There is increasing evidence that most patients with recent-onset AF or atrial flutter (AFL) can be ...safely managed in the emergency department (ED) without the need for hospital admission. The priorities for ED management of recent-onset AF/AFL include rapid assessment of potential hemodynamic instability and identification and treatment of the underlying or precipitating cause. A careful evaluation of the patient's history should be performed to determine the time of onset of the arrhythmia. All patients should be stratified using a predictive index for the risk of stroke (eg, CHADS2 ). For stable patients with recent-onset AF/AFL, a strategy of either rate control or rhythm control could be selected based on multiple factors including the duration of AF and the severity of symptoms. If a strategy of rhythm control has been selected, either electrical or pharmacologic cardioversion may be used. Before proceeding to cardioversion in the absence of systemic anticoagulation, physicians must be confident that the duration of AF/AFL is clearly <48 hours and that the patient is not at a particularly high risk of stroke. When the duration of AF/AFL is >48 hours or uncertain, rate control should be optimized first and the patients should receive therapeutic anticoagulation for 3 weeks before and 4 weeks after planned cardioversion. Adequate follow-up of patients with recent-onset AF/AFL is recommended to identify structural heart disease and evaluate the need for long-term antithrombotic or antiarrhythmic therapy.
ABSTRACT BACKGROUND There is uncertainty about which children with minor head injury need to undergo computed tomography (CT). We sought to prospectively validate the accuracy and potential for ...refinement of a previously derived decision rule, Canadian Assessment of Tomography for Childhood Head injury (CATCH), to guide CT use in children with minor head injury. METHODS This multicentre cohort study in 9 Canadian pediatric emergency departments prospectively enrolled children with blunt head trauma presenting with a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 13–15 and loss of consciousness, amnesia, disorientation, persistent vomiting or irritability. Phys icians completed standardized assessment forms before CT, including clinical predictors of the rule. The primary outcome was neurosurgical intervention and the secondary outcome was brain injury on CT. We calculated test characteristics of the rule and used recursive partitioning to further refine the rule. RESULTS Of 4060 enrolled patients, 23 (0.6%) underwent neurosurgical intervention, and 197 (4.9%) had brain injury on CT. The original 7-item rule (CATCH) had sensitivities of 91.3% (95% confidence interval CI 72.0%–98.9%) for neurosurgical intervention and 97.5% (95% CI 94.2%–99.2%) for predicting brain injury. Adding “≥ 4 episodes of vomiting” resulted in a refined 8-item rule (CATCH2) with 100% (95% CI 85.2%–100%) sensitivity for neurosurgical intervention and 99.5% (95% CI 97.2%–100%) sensitivity for brain injury. INTERPRETATION Among children presenting to the emergency department with minor head injury, the CATCH2 rule was highly sensitive for identifying those children requiring neurosurgical intervention and those with any brain injury on CT. The CATCH2 rule should be further validated in an implementation study designed to assess its clinical impact.
PDF
