Quasi‐biennial oscillations (QBOs) in thirteen atmospheric general circulation models forced with both observed and annually repeating sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are evaluated. In most models ...the QBO period is close to, but shorter than, the observed period of 28 months. Amplitudes are within ±20% of the observed QBO amplitude at 10 hPa, but typically about half of that observed at lower altitudes (50 and 70 hPa). For almost all models, the oscillation's amplitude profile shows an overall upward shift compared to reanalysis and its meridional extent is too narrow. Asymmetry in the duration of eastward and westward phases is reasonably well captured, though not all models replicate the observed slowing of the descending westward shear. Westward phases are generally too weak, and most models have an eastward time mean wind bias throughout the depth of the QBO. The intercycle period variability is realistic and in some models is enhanced in the experiment with observed SSTs compared to the experiment with repeated annual cycle SSTs. Mean periods are also sensitive to this difference between SSTs, but only when parametrized non‐orographic gravity wave (NOGW) sources are coupled to tropospheric parameters and not prescribed with a fixed value. Overall, however, modelled QBOs are very similar whether or not the prescribed SSTs vary interannually. A portrait of the overall ensemble performance is provided by a normalized grading of QBO metrics. To simulate a QBO, all but one model used parametrized NOGWs, which provided the majority of the total wave forcing at altitudes above 70 hPa in most models. Hence the representation of NOGWs either explicitly or through parametrization is still a major uncertainty underlying QBO simulation in these present‐day experiments.
Quasi‐biennial oscillations (QBOs) in thirteen atmospheric general circulation models forced with both observed (orange) and annually repeating (grey) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are evaluated over a range of metrics and compared against reanalysis (blue‐green). Mean periods are sensitive to this difference between SSTs, but only when parametrized non‐orographic gravity wave sources are coupled to tropospheric parameters (60LCAM5 and right there of) and not prescribed with fixed values. Overall, however, modelled QBOs are very similar whether or not the prescribed SSTs vary interannually.
ERA-Interim/Land is a global land surface reanalysis data set covering the period 1979-2010. It describes the evolution of soil moisture, soil temperature and snowpack. ERA-Interim/Land is the result ...of a single 32-year simulation with the latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) land surface model driven by meteorological forcing from the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis and precipitation adjustments based on monthly GPCP v2.1 (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The horizontal resolution is about 80 km and the time frequency is 3-hourly. ERA-Interim/Land includes a number of parameterization improvements in the land surface scheme with respect to the original ERA-Interim data set, which makes it more suitable for climate studies involving land water resources. The quality of ERA-Interim/Land is assessed by comparing with ground-based and remote sensing observations. In particular, estimates of soil moisture, snow depth, surface albedo, turbulent latent and sensible fluxes, and river discharges are verified against a large number of site measurements. ERA-Interim/Land provides a global integrated and coherent estimate of soil moisture and snow water equivalent, which can also be used for the initialization of numerical weather prediction and climate models.
Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This ...paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.
Heart Regeneration in the Mexican Cavefish Stockdale, William T.; Lemieux, Madeleine E.; Killen, Abigail C. ...
Cell reports (Cambridge),
11/2018, Letnik:
25, Številka:
8
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Although Astyanax mexicanus surface fish regenerate their hearts after injury, their Pachón cave-dwelling counterparts cannot and, instead, form a permanent fibrotic scar, similar to the human heart. ...Myocardial proliferation peaks at similar levels in both surface fish and Pachón 1 week after injury. However, in Pachón, this peak coincides with a strong scarring and immune response, and ultimately, cavefish cardiomyocytes fail to replace the scar. We identified lrrc10 to be upregulated in surface fish compared with Pachón after injury. Similar to cavefish, knockout of lrrc10 in zebrafish impairs heart regeneration without affecting wound cardiomyocyte proliferation. Furthermore, using quantitative trait locus (QTL) analysis, we have linked the degree of heart regeneration to three loci in the genome, identifying candidate genes fundamental to the difference between scarring and regeneration. Our study provides evidence that successful heart regeneration entails a delicate interplay between cardiomyocyte proliferation and scarring.
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•Astyanax mexicanus surface fish regenerate their hearts, but Pachón cavefish cannot•Successful regeneration is a delicate interplay between proliferation and scarring•lrrc10 is required for heart regeneration•Using QTL analysis, we have identified three genomic loci linked to heart regeneration
Stockdale et al. identify the Mexican cavefish as a model for heart regeneration research. This model provides an opportunity for direct comparison of natural regeneration versus scarring within a single species. Furthermore, they have identified key genomic regions regulating heart regeneration using an unbiased quantitative trait loci analysis approach.
Ever since Darwin, biologists have debated the relative roles of external and internal drivers of large-scale evolution. The distributions and ecology of living crocodilians are controlled ...by environmental factors such as temperature. Crocodilians have a rich history, including amphibious, marine and terrestrial forms spanning the past 247 Myr. It is uncertain whether their evolution has been driven by extrinsic factors, such as climate change and mass extinctions, or intrinsic factors like sexual selection and competition. Using a new phylogeny of crocodilians and their relatives, we model evolutionary rates using phylogenetic comparative methods. We find that body size evolution follows a punctuated, variable rate model of evolution, consistent with environmental drivers of evolution, with periods of stability interrupted by periods of change. Regression analyses show warmer environmental temperatures are associated with high evolutionary rates and large body sizes. We confirm that environmental factors played a significant role in the evolution of crocodiles.
The impact of lakes in numerical weather prediction is investigated in a set of global simulations performed with the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). A Fresh shallow-water Lake model ...(FLake) is introduced allowing the coupling of both resolved and subgrid lakes (those that occupy less than 50% of a grid-box) to the IFS atmospheric model. Global fields for the lake ancillary conditions (namely lake cover and lake depth), as well as initial conditions for the lake physical state, have been derived to initialise the forecast experiments. The procedure for initialising the lake variables is described and verified with particular emphasis on the importance of surface water temperature and freezing conditions. The response of short-range near surface temperature to the representation of lakes is examined in a set of forecast experiments covering one full year. It is shown that the impact of subgrid lakes is beneficial, reducing forecast error over the Northern territories of Canada and over Scandinavia particularly in spring and summer seasons. This is mainly attributed to the lake thermal effect, which delays the temperature response to seasonal radiation forcing.
Large-scale fires occur frequently across Indonesia, particularly in the southern region of Kalimantan and eastern Sumatra. They have considerable impacts on carbon emissions, haze production, ...biodiversity, health, and economic activities. In this study, we demonstrate that severe fire and haze events in Indonesia can generally be predicted months in advance using predictions of seasonal rainfall from the ECMWF System 4 coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Based on analyses of long, up-to-date series observations on burnt area, rainfall, and tree cover, we demonstrate that fire activity is negatively correlated with rainfall and is positively associated with deforestation in Indonesia. There is a contrast between the southern region of Kalimantan (high fire activity, high tree cover loss, and strong non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire) and the central region of Kalimantan (low fire activity, low tree cover loss, and weak, non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire). The ECMWF seasonal forecast provides skilled forecasts of burnt and fire-affected area with several months lead time explaining at least 70% of the variance between rainfall and burnt and fire-affected area. Results are strongly influenced by El Niño years which show a consistent positive bias. Overall, our findings point to a high potential for using a more physical-based method for predicting fires with several months lead time in the tropics rather than one based on indexes only. We argue that seasonal precipitation forecasts should be central to Indonesia's evolving fire management policy.
Most seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm numbers are produced using statistical‐empirical models. However, forecasts can also be made using numerical models which encode the laws of ...physics, here referred to as “dynamical models”. Based on 12 years of re‐forecasts and 2 years of real‐time forecasts, we show that the so‐called EUROSIP (EUROpean Seasonal to Inter‐annual Prediction) multi‐model ensemble of coupled ocean atmosphere models has substantial skill in probabilistic prediction of the number of Atlantic tropical storms. The EUROSIP real‐time forecasts correctly distinguished between the exceptional year of 2005 and the average hurricane year of 2006. These results have implications for the reliability of climate change predictions of tropical cyclone activity using similar dynamically‐based coupled ocean‐atmosphere models.
The adult human heart cannot repair itself after injury and, instead, forms a permanent fibrotic scar that impairs cardiac function and can lead to incurable heart failure. The zebrafish, amongst ...other organisms, has been extensively studied for its innate capacity to repair its heart after injury. Understanding the signals that govern successful regeneration in models such as the zebrafish will lead to the development of effective therapies that can stimulate endogenous repair in humans. To date, many studies have investigated cardiac regeneration using a reverse genetics candidate gene approach. However, this approach is limited in its ability to unbiasedly identify novel genes and signalling pathways that are essential to successful regeneration. In contrast, drawing comparisons between different models of regeneration enables unbiased screens to be performed, identifying signals that have not previously been linked to regeneration. Here, we will review in detail what has been learnt from the comparative approach, highlighting the techniques used and how these studies have influenced the field. We will also discuss what further comparisons would enhance our knowledge of successful regeneration and scarring. Finally, we focus on the
, an intraspecies comparative fish model that holds great promise for revealing the secrets of the regenerating heart.
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