About the Authors: Matthew R. Behrend * E-mail: behrend04@gmail.com Affiliations Neglected Tropical Diseases, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, United States of America, Blue Well ...8, Seattle, Washington, United States of America ORCID logo http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5664-0520 María-Gloria Basáñez Affiliation: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom Jonathan I. D. Hamley Affiliation: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom Travis C. Porco Affiliation: Francis I. Proctor Foundation for Research in Ophthalmology, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, and Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, United States of America Wilma A. Stolk Affiliation: Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands Martin Walker Affiliations London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, United Kingdom, London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom Sake J. de Vlas Affiliation: Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands ORCID logo http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1830-5668 for the NTD Modelling Consortium Introduction The neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) thrive mainly among the poorest populations of the world.
Onchocerciasis (a filarial disease caused by infection with Onchocerca volvulus and transmitted by blackfly, Simulium, vectors) probably provides the best example of impactful modelling, with its long history of using evidence—mostly from the ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO transmission models 7—to support decision-making within ongoing multicountry control initiatives (Table 1).
Onchocerciasis modelling and policy impact. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008033.t001 From the start of the NTD Modelling Consortium in 2015, there have been several other examples of impactful modelling, which could be divided over three major scales of operations: (1) developing WHO guidelines (e.g., for triple-drug therapy, with ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole, against lymphatic filariasis 16, 17); (2) informing funding decisions for new intervention tools (e.g., the development of a schistosomiasis vaccine 18); and (3) guiding within-country targeting of control (e.g., local vector control for human African trypanosomiasis in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 19, 20 and Chad 21).
Relative word frequencies are represented by size of the font. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008033.g002 Scoring the guidance statements Authors coded the data set individually (MRB, TCP, WAS, SJdV) and jointly (M-GB, JIDH, MW), producing five independently coded sets of data (S1 Table).
Control of soil-transmitted helminths relies heavily on regular large-scale deworming of high-risk groups (e.g., children) with benzimidazole derivatives. Although drug resistance has not yet been ...documented in human soil-transmitted helminths, regular deworming of cattle and sheep has led to widespread benzimidazole resistance in veterinary helminths. Here we predict the population dynamics of human soil-transmitted helminth infections and drug resistance during 20 years of regular preventive chemotherapy, using an individual-based model. With the current preventive chemotherapy strategy of mainly targeting children in schools, drug resistance may evolve in soil-transmitted helminths within a decade. More intense preventive chemotherapy strategies increase the prospects of soil-transmitted helminths elimination, but also increase the speed at which drug efficacy declines, especially when implementing community-based preventive chemotherapy (population-wide deworming). If during the last decade, preventive chemotherapy against soil-transmitted helminths has led to resistance, we may not have detected it as drug efficacy has not been structurally monitored, or incorrectly so. These findings highlight the need to develop and implement strategies to monitor and mitigate the evolution of benzimidazole resistance.
Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are generally assumed to be concentrated in poor populations, but evidence on this remains scattered. We describe within-country socioeconomic inequalities in nine ...NTDs listed in the London Declaration for intensified control and/or elimination: lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH), trachoma, Chagas' disease, human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), leprosy, and visceral leishmaniasis (VL).
We conducted a systematic literature review, including publications between 2004-2013 found in Embase, Medline (OvidSP), Cochrane Central, Web of Science, Popline, Lilacs, and Scielo. We included publications in international peer-reviewed journals on studies concerning the top 20 countries in terms of the burden of the NTD under study.
We identified 5,516 publications, of which 93 met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 59 papers reported substantial and statistically significant socioeconomic inequalities in NTD distribution, with higher odds of infection or disease among poor and less-educated people compared with better-off groups. The findings were mixed in 23 studies, and 11 studies showed no substantial or statistically significant inequality. Most information was available for STH, VL, schistosomiasis, and, to a lesser extent, for trachoma. For the other NTDs, evidence on their socioeconomic distribution was scarce. The magnitude of inequality varied, but often, the odds of infection or disease were twice as high among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups compared with better-off strata. Inequalities often took the form of a gradient, with higher odds of infection or disease each step down the socioeconomic hierarchy. Notwithstanding these inequalities, the prevalence of some NTDs was sometimes also high among better-off groups in some highly endemic areas.
While recent evidence on socioeconomic inequalities is scarce for most individual NTDs, for some, there is considerable evidence of substantially higher odds of infection or disease among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. NTD control activities as proposed in the London Declaration, when set up in a way that they reach the most in need, will benefit the poorest populations in poor countries.
The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) is currently shifting its focus from morbidity control to elimination of infection. To enhance the likelihood of elimination and speed up its ...achievement, programs may consider to increase the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment from annual to 6-monthly or even higher. In a computer simulation study, we examined the potential impact of increasing the mass treatment frequency for different settings. With the ONCHOSIM model, we simulated 92,610 scenarios pertaining to different assumptions about transmission conditions, history of mass treatment, the future mass treatment strategy, and ivermectin efficacy. Simulation results were used to determine the minimum remaining program duration and number of treatment rounds required to achieve 99% probability of elimination. Doubling the frequency of treatment from yearly to 6-monthly or 3-monthly was predicted to reduce remaining program duration by about 40% or 60%, respectively. These reductions come at a cost of additional treatment rounds, especially in case of 3-monthly mass treatment. Also, aforementioned reductions are highly dependent on maintained coverage, and could be completely nullified if coverage of mass treatment were to fall in the future. In low coverage settings, increasing treatment coverage is almost just as effective as increasing treatment frequency. We conclude that 6-monthly mass treatment may only be worth the effort in situations where annual treatment is expected to take a long time to achieve elimination in spite of good treatment coverage, e.g. because of unfavorable transmission conditions or because mass treatment started recently.
River blindness (onchocerciasis) causes severe itching, skin lesions, and vision impairment including blindness. More than 99% of all current cases are found in sub-Saharan Africa. Fortunately, ...vector control and community-directed treatment with ivermectin have significantly reduced morbidity. Studies in Mali and Senegal proved the feasibility of elimination with ivermectin administration. The treatment goal is shifting from control to elimination in endemic African regions. Given limited resources, national and global policymakers need a rigorous analysis comparing investment options. For this, we developed scenarios for alternative treatment goals and compared treatment timelines and drug needs between the scenarios. Control, elimination, and eradication scenarios were developed with reference to current standard practices, large-scale studies, and historical data. For each scenario, the timeline when treatment is expected to stop at country level was predicted using a dynamical transmission model, and ivermectin treatment needs were predicted based on population in endemic areas, treatment coverage data, and the frequency of community-directed treatment. The control scenario requires community-directed treatment with ivermectin beyond 2045 with around 2.63 billion treatments over 2013-2045; the elimination scenario, until 2028 in areas where feasible, but beyond 2045 in countries with operational challenges, around 1.48 corrected billion treatments; and the eradication scenario, lasting until 2040, around 1.30 billion treatments. The eradication scenario is the most favorable in terms of the timeline of the intervention phase and treatment needs. For its realization, strong health systems and political will are required to overcome epidemiological and political challenges.
Furthermore, DALYs measure only direct health loss and, for example, do not consider the economic impact of the NTDs that results from detrimental effects on school attendance and child ...development, agriculture (especially from zoonotic NTDs), and overall economic productivity 10, 11. An additional challenge is to obtain all of the aforementioned values stratified by age and gender, data which are seldom available for NTDs. ...the affordable diagnostic tools typically used to measure NTDs in resource-constrained settings are inaccurate and many sequelae (i.e., morbidities) of NTDs are nonspecific, making it difficult to attribute them to a particular infection or risk factor.
Summary Background Lymphatic filariasis is targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2020. The principal approach used by current programmes is annual mass drug administration with two ...pairs of drugs with a good safety profile. However, one dose of a triple-drug regimen (ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole) has been shown to clear the transmissible stage of the helminth completely in treated individuals. The aim of this study was to use modelling to assess the potential value of mass drug administration with the triple-drug regimen for accelerating elimination of lymphatic filariasis in different epidemiological settings. Methods We used three different transmission models to compare the number of rounds of mass drug administration needed to achieve a prevalence of microfilaraemia less than 1% with the triple-drug regimen and with current two-drug regimens. Findings In settings with a low baseline prevalence of lymphatic filariasis (5%), the triple-drug regimen reduced the number of rounds of mass drug administration needed to reach the target prevalence by one or two rounds, compared with the two-drug regimen. For areas with higher baseline prevalence (10–40%), the triple-drug regimen strikingly reduced the number of rounds of mass drug administration needed, by about four or five, but only at moderate-to-high levels of population coverage (>65%) and if systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration was low. Interpretation Simulation modelling suggests that the triple-drug regimen has potential to accelerate the elimination of lymphatic filariasis if high population coverage of mass drug administration can be achieved and if systematic non-adherence with mass drug administration is low. Future work will reassess these estimates in light of more clinical trial data and to understand the effect on an individual country's programme. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Background Onchocerciasis ("river blindness") can cause severe morbidity, including vision loss and various skin manifestations, and is targeted for elimination using ivermectin mass drug ...administration (MDA). We calculated the number of people with Onchocerca volvulus infection and onchocercal skin and eye disease as well as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost from 1990 through to 2030 in areas formerly covered by the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control. Methods Per MDA implementation unit, we collated data on the pre-control distribution of microfilariae (mf) prevalence and the history of control. Next, we predicted trends in infection and morbidity over time using the ONCHOSIM simulation model. DALY estimates were calculated using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Results In 1990, prior to MDA implementation, the total population at risk was 79.8 million with 26.0 million (32.5%) mf-positive individuals, of whom 17.5 million (21.9%) had some form of onchocercal skin or eye disease (2.5 million DALYs lost). By 2030, the total population was predicted to increase to 236.1 million, while the number of mf-positive cases (about 6.8 million, 2.9%), people with skin or eye morbidity (4.2 million, 1.8%), and DALYs lost (0.7 million) were predicted to decline. Conclusions MDA has had a remarkable impact on the onchocerciasis burden in countries previously under the APOC mandate. In the few countries where we predict continued transmission between now and 2030, intensified MDA could be combined with local vector control efforts, or the introduction of new drugs for mopping up residual cases of infection and morbidity.
Abstract
Background
Mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin for onchocerciasis has been disrupted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modelling can help predict how ...missed/delayed MDA will affect short-term epidemiological trends and elimination prospects by 2030.
Methods
Two onchocerciasis transmission models (EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM) are used to simulate microfilarial prevalence trends, elimination probabilities and age profiles of Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial prevalence and intensity for different treatment histories and transmission settings, assuming no interruption, a 1-y (2020) interruption or a 2-y (2020–2021) interruption. Biannual MDA or increased coverage upon MDA resumption are investigated as remedial strategies.
Results
Programmes with shorter MDA histories and settings with high pre-intervention endemicity will be the most affected. Biannual MDA is more effective than increasing coverage for mitigating COVID-19’s impact on MDA. Programmes that had already switched to biannual MDA should be minimally affected. In high-transmission settings with short treatment history, a 2-y interruption could lead to increased microfilarial load in children (EPIONCHO-IBM) and adults (ONCHOSIM).
Conclusions
Programmes with shorter (annual MDA) treatment histories should be prioritised for remedial biannual MDA. Increases in microfilarial load could have short- and long-term morbidity and mortality repercussions. These results can guide decision-making to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on onchocerciasis elimination.
Onchocerciasis, also known as "river blindness", is caused by the bite of infected female blackflies (genus Simuliidae) that transmit the parasite Onchocerca volvulus. A high onchocerciasis ...microfarial load increases the risk to develop epilepsy in children between the ages of 3 and 18 years. In resource-limited settings in Africa where onchocerciasis has been poorly controlled, high numbers of onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) are reported. We use mathematical modeling to predict the impact of onchocerciasis control strategies on the incidence and prevalence of OAE.
We developed an OAE model within the well-established mathematical modelling framework ONCHOSIM. Using Latin-Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and grid search technique, we quantified transmission and disease parameters using OAE data from Maridi County, an onchocerciasis endemic area, in southern Republic of South Sudan. Using ONCHOSIM, we predicted the impact of ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) and vector control on the epidemiology of OAE in Maridi.
The model estimated an OAE prevalence of 4.1% in Maridi County, close to the 3.7% OAE prevalence reported in field studies. The OAE incidence is expected to rapidly decrease by >50% within the first five years of implementing annual MDA with good coverage (≥70%). With vector control at a high efficacy level (around 80% reduction of blackfly biting rates) as the sole strategy, the reduction is slower, requiring about 10 years to halve the OAE incidence. Increasing the efficacy levels of vector control, and implementing vector control simultaneously with MDA, yielded better results in preventing new cases of OAE.
Our modeling study demonstrates that intensifying onchocerciasis eradication efforts could substantially reduce OAE incidence and prevalence in endemic foci. Our model may be useful for optimizing OAE control strategies.
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