A new version of the RegCM regional climate modeling system, RegCM4, has been recently developed and made available for public use. Compared to previous versions, RegCM4 includes new land surface, ...planetary boundary layer, and air–sea flux schemes, a mixed convection and tropical band configuration, modifications to the pre-existing radiative transfer and boundary layer schemes, and a full upgrade of the model code towards improved flexibility, portability, and user friendliness. The model can be interactively coupled to a 1D lake model, a simplified aerosol scheme (including organic carbon, black carbon, SO₄, dust, and sea spray), and a gas phase chemistry module (CBM-Z). After a general description of the model, a series of test experiments are presented over 4 domains prescribed under the CORDEX framework (Africa, South America, East Asia, and Europe) to provide illustrative examples of the model behavior and sensitivities under different climatic regimes. These experiments indicate that, overall, RegCM4 shows an improved performance in several respects compared to previous versions, although further testing by the user community is needed to fully explore its sensitivities and range of applications.
In north-western Europe, the common tick, Ixodes ricinus, is widely established, its distribution appears to be increasing and the spread of tick-borne diseases is of increasing concern. The project ...‘Flått i Nord’ (Ticks in northern Norway) commenced in spring 2009 with the intention of studying the tick’s distribution and that of its pathogens in northern Norway. Several methods were used: cloth-dragging, collecting from trapped small mammals, and collecting from pets. Since 2010, the occurrence of ticks in the region of northern Norway was determined directly by cloth-dragging 167 times in 109 separate locations between the latitudes of 64 °N and 70 °N (included seven locations in the northern part of Trøndelag County). The northernmost location of a permanent I. ricinus population was found to be Nordøyvågen (66.2204 °N, 12.59 °E) on the Island of Dønna. In a sample of 518 nymphal and adult ticks, the Borrelia prevalence collected close to this distribution limit varied but was low (1–15 %) compared with the locations in Trøndelag, south of the study area (15–27 %). Five specimens (1 %) were positive for Rickettsia helvetica. The length of the vegetation growing season (GSL) can be used as an approximate index for the presence of established populations of I. ricinus. The present study suggests that the threshold GSL for tick establishment is about 170 days, because the median GSL from 1991 to 2015 was 174–184 days at sites with permanent tick populations, showing a clear increase compared with the period 1961–1990. This apparent manifestation of climate change could explain the northward extension of the range of I. ricinus.
The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) is one of the main wheat-production regions in India and the world. With climate change, wheat yields in this region will be affected through changes in temperature and ...precipitation and decreased water availability for irrigation, raising major concerns for national and international food security. Here we use a regional climate model and a crop model to better understand the direct (via changes in temperature and precipitation) and indirect (via a decrease in irrigation availability) impacts of climate change on wheat yields at four sites spread across different states of the IGP: Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The results show an increase in mean temperature and precipitation as well as maximum temperature during the growing season or Rabi season (November–April). The direct impact of climate change, via changes in temperature and precipitation, leads to wheat yield losses between −1% and −8% depending on the site examined. Then, the indirect impact of climate change is examined, considering the impact of climate change on water availability leading to a decrease in irrigation. In this case, the yield losses become significant and much higher, reaching −4% to −36% depending on the site examined and the irrigation regime chosen (6, 5, 3 or 1 irrigations). This work shows that the indirect impacts of climate change may be more detrimental than the direct climatic effects for the future wheat yields in the IGP. It also emphasizes the complexity of climatic risk and the necessity of integrating indirect impacts of climate change to fully assess how it affects agriculture and choose the adequate adaptation response.
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•The climate model projects a significant increase in temperature over the IGP.•The direct impact of climate change leads to wheat yields losses between −1 and −8%.•The added limitation in irrigation leads to higher yields losses, from −4% to −36%.
The development of modelling tools for estimating stomatal uptake of surface ozone in vegetation is important for the assessment of potential damage induced due to both current and future near ...surface ozone concentrations. In this study, we investigate the skill in estimating ozone uptake in plants by the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) V3.6.1, with the Wesely dry deposition scheme. To validate the stomatal uptake of ozone, the model simulations were compared with field measurements of three types of Mediterranean vegetation, over seven different periods representing various meteorological conditions. Some systematic biases in modelled ozone fluxes are revealed; the lack of an explicit and time varying dependency on plants’ water availability results in overestimated daytime ozone stomatal fluxes particularly in dry periods. The optimal temperature in the temperature response function is likely too low for the woody species tested here. Also, too low nighttime stomatal conductance leads to underestimation of ozone uptake during night. We demonstrate that modelled stomatal ozone flux is improved by accounting for vapor pressure deficit in the ambient air. Based on the results of the overall comparison to measured fluxes, we propose that additional improvements to the stomatal conductance parameterization should be implemented before applying the modelling system for estimating ozone doses and potential damage to vegetation.
•Validation of WRF-Chem estimates for stomatal uptake of ozone.•Overestimated daytime ozone stomatal fluxes in particularly dry periods.•Improved stomatal fluxes with VPD parameterization.•Revision of both stomatal conductance parameterization and parameter values required.
Amplified warming at high latitudes over the past few decades has led to changes in the boreal and Arctic climate system such as structural changes in high-latitude ecosystems and soil moisture ...properties. These changes trigger land–atmosphere feedbacks through altered energy partitioning in response to changes in albedo and surface water fluxes. Local-scale changes in the Arctic and boreal zones may propagate to affect large-scale climatic features. In this study, MODIS land surface data are used with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF V3.5.1) and Noah land surface model (LSM), in a series of experiments to investigate the sensitivity of the overlying atmosphere to perturbations in the structural vegetation in the northern European boreal ecosystem. Emphasis is placed on surface energy partitioning and near-surface atmospheric variables, and their response to observed and anticipated land cover changes. We find that perturbations simulating northward migration of evergreen needleleaf forest into tundra regions cause an increase in latent rather than sensible heat fluxes during the summer season. Shrub expansion in tundra areas has only small effects on surface fluxes. Perturbations simulating the northward migration of mixed forest across the present southern border of the boreal forest, have largely opposite effects on the summer latent heat flux, i.e., they lead to a decrease and act to moderate the overall mean regional effects of structural vegetation changes on the near-surface atmosphere.
In order to explore future air quality in Europe at the 2030 horizon, two emission scenarios developed in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment including varying assumptions on climate and ...energy access policies are investigated with an ensemble of six regional and global atmospheric chemistry transport models. A specific focus is given in the paper to the assessment of uncertainties and robustness of the projected changes in air quality. The present work relies on an ensemble of chemistry transport models giving insight into the model spread. Both regional and global scale models were involved, so that the ensemble benefits from medium-resolution approaches as well as global models that capture long-range transport. For each scenario a whole decade is modelled in order to gain statistical confidence in the results. A statistical downscaling approach is used to correct the distribution of the modelled projection. Last, the modelling experiment is related to a hind-cast study published earlier, where the performances of all participating models were extensively documented. The analysis is presented in an exposure-based framework in order to discuss policy relevant changes. According to the emission projections, ozone precursors such as NOx will drop down to 30% to 50% of their current levels, depending on the scenario. As a result, annual mean O3 will slightly increase in NOx saturated areas but the overall O3 burden will decrease substantially. Exposure to detrimental O3 levels for health (SOMO35) will be reduced down to 45% to 70% of their current levels. And the fraction of stations where present-day exceedences of daily maximum O3 is higher than 120 μg m−3 more than 25 days per year will drop from 43% down to 2 to 8%. We conclude that air pollution mitigation measures (present in both scenarios) are the main factors leading to the improvement, but an additional cobenefit of at least 40% (depending on the indicator) is brought about by the climate policy.
The hot summer of 2007 in southeast Europe has been studied using two regional atmospheric chemistry models; WRF-Chem and EMEP MSC-W. The region was struck by three heat waves and a number of forest ...fire episodes, greatly affecting air pollution levels. We have focused on ozone and its precursors using state-of-the-art inventories for anthropogenic, biogenic and forest fire emissions. The models have been evaluated against measurement data, and processes leading to ozone formation have been quantified. Heat wave episodes are projected to occur more frequently in a future climate, and therefore this study also makes a contribution to climate change impact research. The plume from the Greek forest fires in August 2007 is clearly seen in satellite observations of CO and NO2 columns, showing extreme levels of CO in and downwind of the fires. Model simulations reflect the location and influence of the fires relatively well, but the modelled magnitude of CO in the plume core is too low. Most likely, this is caused by underestimation of CO in the emission inventories, suggesting that the CO/NOx ratios of fire emissions should be re-assessed. Moreover, higher maximum values are seen in WRF-Chem than in EMEP MSC-W, presumably due to differences in plume rise altitudes as the first model emits a larger fraction of the fire emissions in the lowermost model layer. The model results are also in fairly good agreement with surface ozone measurements. Biogenic VOC emissions reacting with anthropogenic NOx emissions are calculated to contribute significantly to the levels of ozone in the region, but the magnitude and geographical distribution depend strongly on the model and biogenic emission module used. During the July and August heat waves, ozone levels increased substantially due to a combination of forest fire emissions and the effect of high temperatures. We found that the largest temperature impact on ozone was through the temperature dependence of the biogenic emissions, closely followed by the effect of reduced dry deposition caused by closing of the plants' stomata at very high temperatures. The impact of high temperatures on the ozone chemistry was much lower. The results suggest that forest fire emissions, and the temperature effect on biogenic emissions and dry deposition, will potentially lead to substantial ozone increases in a warmer climate.
National emission inventories of ozone‐depleting substances (ODS) play a key role in the control mechanisms of the Montreal Protocol's emission reduction plans. New quasi‐continuous ground‐based ...atmospheric measurements allow us to estimate China's current emissions of the most effective ODS. This serves as an independent validation of China's ODS consumption data reported to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Emissions of most first‐generation ODS have declined in recent years, suggesting compliance with the regulations of China's advanced phase‐out program. In contrast the emissions of some second‐generation ODS have increased. Because China is currently one of the largest consumers of first generation ODS, the country's upcoming complete phase‐out will be crucial for the rate of decline of atmospheric ODS hence the eventual recovery of the stratospheric ozone.
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