We describe a 20 year survey carried out by the Lick-Carnegie Exoplanet Survey Team (LCES), using precision radial velocities from HIRES on the Keck I telescope to find and characterize extrasolar ...planetary systems orbiting nearby F, G, K, and M dwarf stars. We provide here 60,949 precision radial velocities for 1624 stars contained in that survey. We tabulate a list of 357 significant periodic signals that are of constant period and phase, and not coincident in period and/or phase with stellar activity indices. These signals are thus strongly suggestive of barycentric reflex motion of the star induced by one or more candidate exoplanets in Keplerian motion about the host star. Of these signals, 225 have already been published as planet claims, 60 are classified as significant unpublished planet candidates that await photometric follow-up to rule out activity-related causes, and 54 are also unpublished, but are classified as "significant" signals that require confirmation by additional data before rising to classification as planet candidates. Of particular interest is our detection of a candidate planet with , and P = 9.9 days orbiting Lalande 21185, the fourth-closest main-sequence star to the Sun. For each of our exoplanetary candidate signals, we provide the period and semi-amplitude of the Keplerian orbital fit, and a likelihood ratio estimate of its statistical significance. We also tabulate 18 Keplerian-like signals that we classify as likely arising from stellar activity.
At a distance of 1.295 parsecs, the red dwarf Proxima Centauri (α Centauri C, GL 551, HIP 70890 or simply Proxima) is the Sun's closest stellar neighbour and one of the best-studied low-mass stars. ...It has an effective temperature of only around 3,050 kelvin, a luminosity of 0.15 per cent of that of the Sun, a measured radius of 14 per cent of the radius of the Sun and a mass of about 12 per cent of the mass of the Sun. Although Proxima is considered a moderately active star, its rotation period is about 83 days (ref. 3) and its quiescent activity levels and X-ray luminosity are comparable to those of the Sun. Here we report observations that reveal the presence of a small planet with a minimum mass of about 1.3 Earth masses orbiting Proxima with a period of approximately 11.2 days at a semi-major-axis distance of around 0.05 astronomical units. Its equilibrium temperature is within the range where water could be liquid on its surface.
Due to their higher planet–star mass ratios, M dwarfs are the easiest targets for detection of low-mass planets orbiting nearby stars using Doppler spectroscopy. Furthermore, because of their low ...masses and luminosities, Doppler measurements enable the detection of low-mass planets in their habitable zones that correspond to closer orbits than for solar-type stars. We re-analyse literature Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph (UVES) radial velocities of 41 nearby M dwarfs in a combination with new velocities obtained from publicly available spectra from the HARPS-ESO spectrograph of these stars in an attempt to constrain any low-amplitude Keplerian signals. We apply Bayesian signal detection criteria, together with posterior sampling techniques, in combination with noise models that take into account correlations in the data and obtain estimates for the number of planet candidates in the sample. More generally, we use the estimated detection probability function to calculate the occurrence rate of low-mass planets around nearby M dwarfs. We report eight new planet candidates in the sample (orbiting GJ 27.1, GJ 160.2, GJ 180, GJ 229, GJ 422, and GJ 682), including two new multiplanet systems, and confirm two previously known candidates in the GJ 433 system based on detections of Keplerian signals in the combined UVES and High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher (HARPS) radial velocity data that cannot be explained by periodic and/or quasi-periodic phenomena related to stellar activities. Finally, we use the estimated detection probability function to calculate the occurrence rate of low-mass planets around nearby M dwarfs. According to our results, M dwarfs are hosts to an abundance of low-mass planets and the occurrence rate of planets less massive than 10 M⊕ is of the order of one planet per star, possibly even greater. Our results also indicate that planets with masses between 3 and 10 M⊕ are common in the stellar habitable zones of M dwarfs with an estimated occurrence rate of 0.21
$^{+0.03}_{-0.05}$
planets per star.
We report the discovery of a radial velocity signal that can be interpreted as a planetary-mass candidate orbiting the K dwarf HD 26965, with an orbital period of 42.364 ± 0.015 days, or ...alternatively, as the presence of residual, uncorrected rotational activity in the data. Observations include data from HIRES, PFS, CHIRON, and HARPS, where 1111 measurements were made over 16 years. Our best solution for HD 26965 b is consistent with a super-Earth that has a minimum mass of 6.92 ± 0.79 \({M}_{\oplus }\) orbiting at a distance of 0.215 ± 0.008 au from its host star. We have analyzed the correlation between spectral activity indicators and the radial velocities from each instrument, showing moderate correlations that we include in our model. From this analysis, we recover a ∼38-day signal, which matches some literature values of the stellar rotation period. However, from independent Mt. Wilson HK data for this star, we find evidence for a significant 42-day signal after subtraction of longer period magnetic cycles, casting doubt on the planetary hypothesis for this period. Although our statistical model strongly suggests that the 42-day signal is Doppler in origin, we conclude that the residual effects of stellar rotation are difficult to fully model and remove from this data set, highlighting the difficulties to disentangle small planetary signals and photospheric noise, particularly when the orbital periods are close to the rotation period of the star. This study serves as an excellent test case for future works that aim to detect small planets orbiting “Sun-like” stars using radial velocity measurements.
Several models are used to describe the temperature dependence of heterotrophic soil respiration. Six such models are examined here in detail against incubation measurements from different sources. ...These models are compared using common sums of squared residuals, Bayesian model probabilities and Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) samplings of model parameter spaces. The McMC samples were calculated to study the probability distributions of model parameters in detail. We show that the temperature dependence can be described best using a Gaussian model. The often-used
Q
10
value as well as four other commonly used models either produce poor fittings or parameter distributions too correlated to be considered useful.
Bayesian data analysis techniques, together with suitable statistical models, can be used to obtain much more information from noisy data than the traditional frequentist methods. For instance, when ...searching for periodic signals in noisy data, the Bayesian techniques can be used to define exact detection criteria for low-amplitude signals - the most interesting signals that might correspond to habitable planets. We present an overview of Bayesian techniques and present detailed analyses of the HARPS-TERRA velocities of HD 40307, a nearby star observed to host a candidate habitable planet, to demonstrate in practice the applicability of Bayes' rule to astronomical data
Feedback to climate warming from the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems depends critically on the temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition. Still, the temperature ...sensitivity is not known for the majority of the SOC, which is tens or hundreds of years old. This old fraction is paradoxically concluded to be more, less, or equally sensitive compared to the younger fraction. Here, we present results that explain these inconsistencies. We show that the temperature sensitivity of decomposition increases remarkably from the youngest annually cycling fraction (Q₁₀ < 2) to a decadally cycling one (Q₁₀ = 4.2–6.9) but decreases again to a centennially cycling fraction (Q₁₀ = 2.4–2.8) in boreal forest soil. Compared to the method used for current global estimates (temperature sensitivity of all SOC equal to that of the total heterotrophic soil respiration), the soils studied will lose 30–45% more carbon in response to climate warming during the next few decades, if there is no change in carbon input. Carbon input, derivative of plant productivity, would have to increase by 100–120%, as compared to the earlier estimated 70–80%, in order to compensate for the accelerated decomposition.
We re-analyse the recently published High-Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher (HARPS) and Planet Finder Spectrograph (PFS) velocities of the nearby K dwarf GJ 221 that have been reported to ...contain the signatures of two planets orbiting the star. Our goal is to see whether the earlier studies discussing the system fell victims of false negative detections. We perform the analyses by using an independent statistical method based on posterior samplings and model comparisons in the Bayesian framework that is known to be more sensitive to weak signals of low-mass planets. According to our analyses, we find strong evidence in favour of a third candidate planet in the system corresponding to a cold sub-Saturnian planet with an orbital period of 500 d and a minimum mass of 29 M⊕. Application of sub-optimal signal detection methods can leave low-amplitude signals undetected in radial velocity time series. Our results suggest that the estimated statistical properties of low-mass planets can thus be biased because several signals corresponding to low-mass candidate planets may have gone unnoticed. This also suggests that the occurrence rates of such planets based on radial velocity surveys might be underestimated.
Much effort has been made to improve understanding of factors controlling the temperature dependence of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition. The question of how soils formed in different ...geographical locations and conditions respond to temperature changes is still open. In addition to climate, residence times of soil organic matter are controlled by its decomposability and microbial community. In this work we hypothesized that the decomposition of SOM is adapted to the prevailing SOM quality and climatic conditions. This should result in different temperature vs. decomposition curves for northern and southern soils. We studied short-term temperature dependence of SOM decomposition near the northern and southern borders of the boreal forest zone using a Gaussian model. As carbon mineralization rate is driven by microbial activity, we focused on organic carbon fractions available to microbes and the size, composition and functioning of microbial communities in the soil. Despite differences in microbial community structure and behavior, similar amounts and qualities of the microbially available carbon led to similar temperature dependences of carbon mineralization in the north and south. The overall soil respiration rate level was higher in spruce forest sites than in pine forest sites irrespective of climate conditions. Our results do not mean that there is no risk of carbon losses from northern soils due to warming climate conditions. As temperature sensitivity of the decomposition increases with decreasing temperature regime, the proportional increase in the decomposition rate in northern latitudes might lead to significant carbon losses from the soils.
Changes in the carbon stock of soil in response to climate change would significantly affect the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and consequently climate. The isotopes of carbon provide a ...means to study the temperature sensitivities of different soil carbon fractions. Where C3 vegetation has changed for C4, soil organic matter (SOM) from the different origins have different
13C/
12C ratios. Relying on this feature, we took soil samples from a control field and a field where ordinary grain (C3) vegetation was replaced by maize (C4), 5 years ago. We measured the respiration rate and the
13C/
12C ratio of the CO
2 produced by the samples at different temperatures. Based on these measurements, we quantified that
Q
10 was 3.4–3.6 for the total CO
2 production while it was 2.4–2.9 at 20
°C for the maize-derived young carbon and 3.6 for the older C3-derived carbon. Our results suggest that climatic warming will accelerate especially the decomposition of the large pool of old soil carbon in these fields.
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