In this article we develop a comprehensive conceptual framework for resource efficiency indicators with a consistent link of resource use to the socio-economic system and activities therein as well ...as to the natural system and its ecosystem functioning. Three broad groups of indicators are defined: (1) resource use indicators representing pressures on the environment; (2) resource efficiency indicators relating resource use indicators to the socio-economic side; and (3) environmental impact indicators linking resource use impacts on the state of the natural system. Based on this conceptual framework we develop a structure for possible resource efficiency indicators and conduct a RACER evaluation on the Relevance, Acceptance, Credibility, Easiness and Robustness of indicators. With the RACER evaluation, we identify areas where indicators are well established and available as well as areas where indicators still need further development or even need to be designed first.
Multiregional input-output (MRIO) databases are used to analyze the impact of resource use and environmental impacts along global supply chains. To accurately account for pressures and impacts that ...are highly concentrated in specific sectors or regions of the world, such as agricultural and land-use-related impacts, MRIO databases are being fueled by increasingly more detailed data. To date no MRIO database exists which couples a high level of harmonized sector detail with high country resolution. Currently available databases either aggregate minor countries into rest-of-the-world (WIOD and EXIOBASE 3), or the high country resolution is achieved at the cost of non-harmonized or lower sectoral detail (Eora, OECD-ICIO or the GTAP-MRIO). This aggregation can cause potentially significant differences in environmental and socioeconomic impact calculations. In this paper, we describe the development of an EXIOBASE 3 variant that expands regional coverage from 49 regions to 214 countries, while keeping the high and harmonized sectoral detail. We show the relevance of disaggregation for land-use accounting. Previous rest-of-the-world regions supply one-third of global land, which is used to produce a large range of different products under very different levels of productivity. We find that the aggregation of regions leads to a difference in the balance of land embodied in trade of up to 6% and a difference of land embodied in imports of up to 68% for individual countries and up to 600% for land-use-relevant sectors. Whilst the database can still be considered experimental, it is expected to increase the accuracy of estimates for environmental footprint studies of the original EXIOBASE countries, and provides the first estimates for the countries in the previous rest-of-the world.
The provision of food is fundamental for society, but it is also a major driver of environmental change. Cities are important consumers of food, harboring more than half of the global population, a ...share that is expected to grow in the coming decades. Here we investigate the urban food system of Vienna, a large central European city. We quantify the land and greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint of Vienna's food system and explore potentials to reduce the urban footprint through changes in food consumption, applying a counterfactual approach. We systematically compare the land and GHG effect of a shift of consumption towards i) diets with a lower share of animal products, ii) food from regional agriculture and iii) food from organic agriculture, based on the FoodClim model presented in this study. Our results show that Vienna's food system currently requires 639000 ha of agricultural land, about two thirds of it in foreign countries and emits 2.29 Mt CO2e/yr over the whole supply chain. A change in diets has the largest impact, reducing both Vienna's food system land footprint by 54% and its GHG footprint by 57%, while the effect of regionalization is comparatively small. Combined scenarios show that it is possible to maintain a healthy level of meat in diets and to switch to organic agriculture with lower land and livestock productivities and to still save half of the GHG emissions, while avoiding an expansion of the land footprint.
•Analysis of land and GHG impacts of current and hypothetical food system of Vienna.•Per capita, the current food system requires 0.35 ha land and emits 1.26 t CO2e.•Dairy products and beef cause nearly a third of land footprint and GHG emissions.•Transport halved by regionalization, but effect on total GHG emissions limited.•Organic food with less animal products halves emissions and stabilizes the land footprint.
•We present the diagnostic biophysical land-system and GHG emission model BioBaM-GHG 2.0.•BioBaM is designed for evaluating the feasibility and associated GHG emissions of large numbers of agro-food ...system and land-use scenarios at various scales.•We present model algorithms, data structures and the software environment.•As illustrative example, we analyse scenarios for the expansion of agro-ecological measures in the European Union.•As second example, we present an assessment of global potentials for afforestation as climate mitigation measure.
Close to 40% of Earth's land area is used for agriculture to provide humankind with plant- and animal-based food, fibers or bioenergy. Future trends in agricultural land use, livestock husbandry and associated environmental pressures are determined by developments in the food sector, agricultural productivity, technology, and many other influencing factors. Scenario analysis helps to understand their complex interaction and obtain quantitative insight. We here present an in-depth description of the agricultural land use model BioBaM-GHG 2.0 (“BioBaM”), designed for evaluating large numbers of agricultural and livestock production scenarios assembled on the basis of exogenous assumptions on food systems, crop yields and other factors. BioBaM determines the feasibility of specific parameter combinations and the corresponding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural activities, livestock husbandry, land-use change and other activities. We provide a description of the software environment, the model's data structures, input and output variables and model algorithms. To illustrate the model's capabilities and the scope of model applications, we describe two exemplary studies performed with BioBaM: We assess implications of agro-ecological innovations and the feasibility of their widespread application in order to illustrate their implications in terms of agricultural self-sufficiency and GHG emissions. This first case study aligns a small number of individual scenarios with qualitative storylines. We also showcase a ”biophysical option space approach”, which represents a comprehensive sensitivity analysis regarding the multidimensional uncertainties inherent to main influencing parameters, i.e. projections for diets and yields; assumptions on cropland use for bioenergy, and regarding grassland intensification. The global potential of forest regeneration for climate change mitigation serves as an example for this second approach. The option space comprises 90 scenarios and encompasses the full range of literature estimates on GHG mitigation from afforestation in 2050 (0.5 – 7 Gt CO2/yr). It further shows that the potential is zero under certain diet-yield-combinations. Assuming zero energy crop cultivation and global convergence to a healthy reference diet, the sequestration potential of afforestation rises to 10 Gt CO2/yr in 2050. These exemplary applications illustrate how option spaces developed with BioBaM can complement scenario-based assessments that usually focus on small numbers of individual scenarios: Option spaces shift attention to a wider scope of conceivable futures and thus support a comprehensive view on systemic relations and dependencies, whereas analyses with few scenarios allow apprehension of much more detailed scenario narratives and qualifications.
Short food supply chains and circularity are discussed as key factors for a sustainable food system. Although self-sufficiency ratios (SSR) are often used to characterize agri-food systems, the ...concept of SSR remains inconsistently defined, particularly when means of production such as livestock feed are explicitly considered. We present a systematic conceptualization of SSR, i.e., the ratio of domestic production to consumption within a region along three dimensions: a) livestock products, b) cropland products, and c) primary agricultural biomass. While a) and b) refer to the domestic production and net-trade of livestock resp. crop products, c) relates to domestic agricultural primary production and primary biomass consumption representing the feed embodied in consumed livestock products. As such, the third dimension indicates the potential self-sufficiency for a region assuming consumed livestock products stem from domestic livestock, fed with domestic crops and grass. We quantify these three SSR dimensions for 226 regions (NUTS2) in the European Union (EU) based on detailed agricultural statistics and models. Results show that 14 % of EU regions were self-sufficient, and 26 % were import-dependent for all three dimensions. We find that 54 % of regions were self-sufficient for ruminant livestock products and 39 % for monogastric livestock products underlining a spatially concentrated pork, egg, and poultry production structure in the EU. Moreover, 21 % of regions are dependent on crop imports and simultaneously self-sufficient or net-exporters of livestock products. Our investigation on the relationship between agricultural production and consumption discloses a widespread disconnectedness of European livestock systems between land use and consumption. Expanding a narrow understanding of food self-sufficiency by integrating a primary biomass perspective allows for a more nuanced debate on sustainable agri-food systems. The results, first, demonstrate the substantial role of net-trade in the supply of regional food systems and, second, indicate room for stronger circular integration of crop- and livestock systems.
Summary
The European Commission recently embraced the concept of agroecology as a pathway to reduce negative impacts from agri‐food systems on the environment. So far, it remains unclear whether ...agroecology can deliver on these high hopes if implemented on a large scale. We here assess socio‐economic and environmental implications of multiple agroecological futures in the European Union in 2050, based on a novel diagnostic scenario approach, i.e. the biomass balancing model BioBaM‐GHG 2.0. We find that agroecological measures from the plot to the food systems level can indeed reduce environmental pressures while maintaining domestic food availability within the EU. Such measures are, for example, more hedgerows on croplands or reduced biomass harvest on high natural value – HNV grasslands. However, a key prerequisite is an overall reduction of the food system's size (based on the reduction of animal production, food wastes, and export production) and an optimised crop‐livestock integration. Only then does the transformation towards an agroecological agri‐food system in the EU not risk overstretching domestic land availability or produce insufficient agricultural commodities. Mitigating the accompanied trade‐off of reduced farm income is a central mandate for policy development aimed at re‐designing agriculture in Europe to align with the Green Deal goals.
La Commission européenne a récemment adopté le concept d'agroécologie comme moyen de réduire les impacts négatifs des systèmes agroalimentaires sur l'environnement. Jusqu'à présent, il n'est pas clair que l'agroécologie puisse répondre à ces grands espoirs si elle est mise en œuvre à grande échelle. Nous évaluons ici les implications socio‐économiques et environnementales de multiples futurs agroécologiques dans l'Union européenne en 2050, sur la base d'une nouvelle approche par scénario de diagnostic, à savoir le modèle d'équilibrage de la biomasse BioBaM‐GHG 2.0. Nous constatons que les mesures agroécologiques appliquées de l’échelle de la parcelle jusqu’au niveau des systèmes alimentaires peuvent en effet réduire les pressions environnementales tout en conservant la disponibilité alimentaire intérieure au sein de l'Union européenne. Ces mesures consistent, par exemple, à planter davantage de haies sur les terres cultivées ou à réduire la récolte de biomasse sur les prairies à haute valeur naturelle – HVN. Cependant, une condition préalable essentielle est de diminuer globalement la taille du système alimentaire (basée sur la réduction des cheptels, des déchets et de la production exportée) et d’optimiser l’intégration agriculture‐élevage. Ce n'est qu'alors que la transformation vers un système agroalimentaire agroécologique dans l'Union européenne ne risque pas d’aboutir à une surexploitation des terres nationales ou une production insuffisante de produits agricoles. L'atténuation du compromis résultant en termes de réduction des revenus agricoles est un mandat central pour l'élaboration de politiques visant à repenser l'agriculture en Europe pour l'aligner sur les objectifs du Pacte vert.
Die Europäische Kommission hat kürzlich das Konzept der Agrarökologie als einen Weg zur Verringerung der negativen Auswirkungen von Agrar‐ und Ernährungssystemen auf die Umwelt begrüßt. Bislang ist jedoch unklar, ob Agrarökologie diese Hoffnungen erfüllen kann, wenn sie in großem Maßstab umgesetzt wird. Wir bewerten im vorliegenden Beitrag die sozioökonomischen und ökologischen Auswirkungen einer großen Anzahl von agrarökologischer Zukunftsszenarien in der Europäischen Union für das Jahr 2050. Grundlage hierfür ist ein neuartiger diagnostischer Modellierungsansatz, d. h. das Biomasse‐Bilanzierungsmodell BioBaM‐GHG 2.0. Wir kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass agrarökologische Maßnahmen von der Schlag‐ bis zur Ebene des gesamten Ernährungssystems tatsächlich Umweltbelastungen verringern und gleichzeitig die Verfügbarkeit von Lebensmitteln in der EU aufrechterhalten können. Solche Maßnahmen sind zum Beispiel mehr Hecken am Rand von Ackerflächen oder eine extensivere Nutzung von Grünland mit hohem Naturwert (‘high nature value grasslands’). Eine wichtige Voraussetzung ist jedoch eine grundsätzliche ‘Verkleinerung’ des Ernährungssystems (Verringerung der Viehbestände, der Lebensmittelabfälle und der Nettoexporte) und eine optimierte Integration von Ackerbau und Viehzucht. Nur so kann erreicht werden, dass die Umstellung auf ein agrarökologisches Agrar‐ und Ernährungssystem mit den lokalen Produktionskapazitäten in der EU vereinbar ist, und keine negativen Verlagerungseffekte stattfinden. Die Abfederung der damit einhergehenden Einkommenseinbußen für die Landwirtschaft ist ein zentrales Mandat für Politikgestaltung die darauf abzielt, die Landwirtschaft in Europa so umzugestalten, dass sie mit den Zielen des Green Deal übereinstimmt.
In this article we develop a comprehensive conceptual framework for resource efficiency
indicators with a consistent link of resource use to the socio-economic system and activities therein as
well ...as to the natural system and its ecosystem functioning. Three broad groups of indicators are
defined: (1) resource use indicators representing pressures on the environment; (2) resource efficiency
indicators relating resource use indicators to the socio-economic side; and (3) environmental impact
indicators linking resource use impacts on the state of the natural system. Based on this conceptual
framework we develop a structure for possible resource efficiency indicators and conduct a RACER
evaluation on the Relevance, Acceptance, Credibility, Easiness and Robustness of indicators. With
the RACER evaluation, we identify areas where indicators are well established and available as well
as areas where indicators still need further development or even need to be designed first.
Environmentally extended multiregional input-output (EE MRIO) tables have emerged as a key framework to provide a comprehensive description of the global economy and analyze its effects on the ...environment. Of the available EE MRIO databases, EXIOBASE stands out as a database compatible with the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) with a high sectorial detail matched with multiple social and environmental satellite accounts. In this paper, we present the latest developments realized with EXIOBASE 3-a time series of EE MRIO tables ranging from 1995 to 2011 for 44 countries (28 EU member plus 16 major economies) and five rest of the world regions. EXIOBASE 3 builds upon the previous versions of EXIOBASE by using rectangular supply-use tables (SUTs) in a 163 industry by 200 products classification as the main building locks. In order to capture structural changes, economic developments, as reported by national statistical agencies, were imposed on the available, disaggregated SUTs from EXIOBASE 2. These initial estimates were further refined by incorporating detailed data on energy, agricultural production, resource extraction, and bilateral trade. EXIOBASE 3 inherits the high level of environmental stressor detail from
its precursor, with further improvement in the level of detail for resource xtraction. To account for the expansion of the European Union (EU), EXIOBASE 3 was developed with the full EU28 country set (including the new member state Croatia). EXIOBASE 3 provides a unique tool for analyzing the dynamics of environmental pressures of economic activities over time.
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