We present first results of the H2O Southern Galactic Plane Survey (HOPS), using the Mopra Radio Telescope with a broad-band backend and a beam size of about 2 arcmin. We have observed 100 deg2 of ...the southern Galactic plane at 12 mm (19.5-27.5 GHz), including spectral line emission from H2O masers, multiple metastable transitions of ammonia, cyanoacetylene, methanol and radio recombination lines. In this paper, we report on the characteristics of the survey and H2O maser emission. We find 540 H2O masers, of which 334 are new detections. The strongest maser is 3933 Jy and the weakest is 0.7 Jy, with 62 masers over 100 Jy. In 14 maser sites, the spread in the velocity of the H2O maser emission exceeds 100 km s−1. In one region, the H2O maser velocities are separated by 351.3 km s−1. The rms noise levels are typically between 1 and 2 Jy, with 95 per cent of the survey under 2 Jy. We estimate completeness limits of 98 per cent at around 8.4 Jy and 50 per cent at around 5.5 Jy. We estimate that there are between 800 and 1500 H2O masers in the Galaxy that are detectable in a survey with similar completeness limits to HOPS. We report possible masers in NH3 (11,9) and (8,6) emission towards G19.61−0.23 and in the NH3 (3,3) line towards G23.33−0.30.
The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) recently observed 18 transits of the hot Jupiter WASP-4b. The sequence of transits occurred 81.6 11.7 s earlier than had been predicted, based on data ...stretching back to 2007. This is unlikely to be the result of a clock error, because TESS observations of other hot Jupiters (WASP-6b, 18b, and 46b) are compatible with a constant period, ruling out an 81.6 s offset at the 6.4 level. The 1.3 day orbital period of WASP-4b appears to be decreasing at a rate of ms per year. The apparent period change might be caused by tidal orbital decay or apsidal precession, although both interpretations have shortcomings. The gravitational influence of a third body is another possibility, though at present there is minimal evidence for such a body. Further observations are needed to confirm and understand the timing variation.
Small abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs; 3.0-5.4 cm in diameter) are usually asymptomatic and managed by regular ultrasound surveillance until they grow to a diameter threshold (commonly 5.5 cm) at ...which surgical intervention is considered. The choice of appropriate surveillance intervals is governed by the growth and rupture rates of small AAAs, as well as their relative cost-effectiveness.
The aim of this series of studies was to inform the evidence base for small AAA surveillance strategies. This was achieved by literature review, collation and analysis of individual patient data, a focus group and health economic modelling.
We undertook systematic literature reviews of growth rates and rupture rates of small AAAs. The databases MEDLINE, EMBASE on OvidSP, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials 2009 Issue 4, ClinicalTrials.gov, and controlled-trials.com were searched from inception up until the end of 2009. We also obtained individual data on 15,475 patients from 18 surveillance studies.
Systematic reviews of publications identified 15 studies providing small AAA growth rates, and 14 studies with small AAA rupture rates, up to December 2009 (later updated to September 2012). We developed statistical methods to analyse individual surveillance data, including the effects of patient characteristics, to inform the choice of surveillance intervals and provide inputs for health economic modelling. We updated an existing health economic model of AAA screening to address the cost-effectiveness of different surveillance intervals.
In the literature reviews, the mean growth rate was 2.3 mm/year and the reported rupture rates varied between 0 and 1.6 ruptures per 100 person-years. Growth rates increased markedly with aneurysm diameter, but insufficient detail was available to guide surveillance intervals. Based on individual surveillance data, for each 0.5-cm increase in AAA diameter, growth rates increased by about 0.5 mm/year and rupture rates doubled. To control the risk of exceeding 5.5 cm to below 10% in men, on average a 7-year surveillance interval is sufficient for a 3.0-cm aneurysm, whereas an 8-month interval is necessary for a 5.0-cm aneurysm. To control the risk of rupture to below 1%, the corresponding estimated surveillance intervals are 9 years and 17 months. Average growth rates were higher in smokers (by 0.35 mm/year) and lower in patients with diabetes (by 0.51 mm/year). Rupture rates were almost fourfold higher in women than men, doubled in current smokers and increased with higher blood pressure. Increasing the surveillance interval from 1 to 2 years for the smallest aneurysms (3.0-4.4 cm) decreased costs and led to a positive net benefit. For the larger aneurysms (4.5-5.4 cm), increasing surveillance intervals from 3 to 6 months led to equivalent cost-effectiveness.
There were no clear reasons why the growth rates varied substantially between studies. Uniform diagnostic criteria for rupture were not available. The long-term cost-effectiveness results may be susceptible to the modelling assumptions made.
Surveillance intervals of several years are clinically acceptable for men with AAAs in the range 3.0-4.0 cm. Intervals of around 1 year are suitable for 4.0-4.9-cm AAAs, whereas intervals of 6 months would be acceptable for 5.0-5.4-cm AAAs. These intervals are longer than those currently employed in the UK AAA screening programmes. Lengthening surveillance intervals for the smallest aneurysms was also shown to be cost-effective. Future work should focus on optimising surveillance intervals for women, studying whether or not the threshold for surgery should depend on patient characteristics, evaluating the usefulness of surveillance for those with aortic diameters of 2.5-2.9 cm, and developing interventions that may reduce the growth or rupture rates of small AAAs.
The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.
A single-particle soot photometer (SP2) was flown on a NASA WB-57F high-altitude research aircraft in November 2004 from Houston, Texas. The SP2 uses laser-induced incandescence to detect individual ...black carbon (BC) particles in an air sample in the mass range of approx.3-300 fg (approx.0.15-0.7 microns volume equivalent diameter). Scattered light is used to size the remaining non-BC aerosols in the range of approx.0.17-0.7 microns diameter. We present profiles of both aerosol types from the boundary layer to the lower stratosphere from two midlatitude flights. Results for total aerosol amounts in the size range detected by the SP2 are in good agreement with typical particle spectrometer measurements in the same region. All ambient incandescing particles were identified as BC because their incandescence properties matched those of laboratory-generated BC aerosol. Approximately 40% of these BC particles showed evidence of internal mixing (e.g., coating). Throughout profiles between 5 and 18.7 km, BC particles were less than a few percent of total aerosol number, and black carbon aerosol (BCA) mass mixing ratio showed a constant gradient with altitude above 5 km. SP2 data was compared to results from the ECHAM4/MADE and LmDzT-INCA global aerosol models. The comparison will help resolve the important systematic differences in model aerosol processes that determine BCA loadings. Further intercomparisons of models and measurements as presented here will improve the accuracy of the radiative forcing contribution from BCA.
Ice cores from low latitudes can provide a wealth of unique information about past climate in the tropics, but they are difficult to recover and few exist. Here, we report annually resolved ice core ...records from the Quelccaya ice cap (5670 meters above sea level) in Peru that extend back ~1800 years and provide a high-resolution record of climate variability there. Oxygen isotopic ratios (δ¹⁸O) are linked to sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific, whereas concentrations of ammonium and nitrate document the dominant role played by the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the region of the tropical Andes. Quelccaya continues to retreat and thin. Radiocarbon dates on wetland plants exposed along its retreating margins indicate that it has not been smaller for at least six millennia.
Chemically modified mRNA is an efficient, biocompatible modality for therapeutic protein expression. We report a first-time-in-human study of this modality, aiming to evaluate safety and potential ...therapeutic effects. Men with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) received intradermal injections of modified mRNA encoding vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF-A) or buffered saline placebo (ethical obligations precluded use of a non-translatable mRNA control) at randomized sites on the forearm. The only causally treatment-related adverse events were mild injection-site reactions. Skin microdialysis revealed elevated VEGF-A protein levels at mRNA-treated sites versus placebo-treated sites from about 4-24 hours post-administration. Enhancements in basal skin blood flow at 4 hours and 7 days post-administration were detected using laser Doppler fluximetry and imaging. Intradermal VEGF-A mRNA was well tolerated and led to local functional VEGF-A protein expression and transient skin blood flow enhancement in men with T2DM. VEGF-A mRNA may have therapeutic potential for regenerative angiogenesis.
The ASAS-SN bright supernova catalogue – II. 2015 Holoien, T. W.-S; Brown, J. S; Stanek, K. Z ...
Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society,
05/2017, Letnik:
467, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Abstract
This manuscript presents information for all supernovae discovered by the All-Sky Automated Survey for SuperNovae (ASAS-SN) during 2015, its second full year of operations. The same ...information is presented for bright (mV ≤ 17), spectroscopically confirmed supernovae discovered by other sources in 2015. As with the first ASAS-SN bright supernova catalogue, we also present redshifts and near-ultraviolet through infrared magnitudes for all supernova host galaxies in both samples. Combined with our previous catalogue, this work comprises a complete catalogue of 455 supernovae from multiple professional and amateur sources, allowing for population studies that were previously impossible. This is the second of a series of yearly papers on bright supernovae and their hosts from the ASAS-SN team.
A high-resolution ice core record from Dasuopu, Tibet, reveals that this site is sensitive to fluctuations in the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon. Reductions in monsoonal intensity are recorded ...by dust and chloride concentrations. The deeper, older sections of the Dasuopu cores suggest many other periods of drought in this region, but none have been of greater intensity than the greatest recorded drought, during 1790 to 1796 A.D. of the last millennium. The 20th century increase in anthropogenic activity in India and Nepal, upwind from this site, is recorded by a doubling of chloride concentrations and a fourfold increase in dust. Like other ice cores from the Tibetan Plateau, Dasuopu suggests a large-scale, plateau-wide 20th-century warming trend that appears to be amplified at higher elevations.
Nearly half of recent decades' global forest loss occurred in the Amazon and Cerrado (tropical savanna) biomes of Brazil, known as the arc of deforestation. Despite prior analysis in individual river ...basins, a generalizable empirical understanding of the effect of deforestation on streamflow across this region is lacking. We frame land use change in Brazil as a natural experiment and draw on in situ and remote sensing evidence in 324 river basins covering more than 3 × 106 km2 to estimate streamflow changes caused by deforestation and agricultural development between 1950 and 2013. Deforestation increased dry season low flow by between 4 and 10 percentage points (relative to the forested condition), corresponding to a regional‐ and time‐averaged rate of increase in specific streamflow of 1.29 mm/year2, equivalent to a 4.08 km3/year2 increase, assuming a stationary climate. In conjunction with rainfall and temperature variations, the net (observed) average increase in streamflow over the same period was 0.76 mm/year2, or 2.41 km3/year2. Thus, net increases in regional streamflow in the past half century are 58% of those that would have been experienced with deforestation given a stationary climate. This study uses a causal empirical analysis approach novel to the water sciences to verify the regional applicability of prior basin‐scale studies, provides a proof of concept for the use of observational causal identification methods in the water sciences, and demonstrates that deforestation masks the streamflow‐reducing effects of climate change in this region.
Plain Language Summary
Nearly half of the world's deforestation occurs in the “arc of deforestation” located along the southern border of the Amazon rainforest in Brazil. While the effects of deforestation on river flows are partially understood from previous field observations and models, the regional impacts of deforestation in this area have not been quantified to date, which poses an obstacle to policy making. This study uses a large collection of historical data from ground measurements and satellites, and data analysis methods that can reveal cause and effect in complex systems, to estimate the regionally averaged effects of deforestation from 1950 to present on river flows. The results show that (1) deforestation increases river flow, specifically during the dry season; (2) deforestation increases regional average rates of flow by 4.08 km3/year annually; and (3) changes in temperature and rainfall that occurred at the same time as deforestation partially mask the increases in river flow that were caused by deforestation—resulting in an actual, observed flow rate increase of 2.41 km3/year annually.
Key Points
Deforestation increases streamflow across Brazil's arc of deforestation, with significant increases to seasonal low flow
Deforestation counteracts the streamflow‐reducing effects of climate change across the arc of deforestation
Causal statistical analysis of hydrological data confirms the regional generalizability of prior individual basin studies
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