Daily global analyses and 5-day forecasts are generated in the context of the European Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project using an extended version of the Integrated ...Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The IFS now includes modules for chemistry, deposition and emission of reactive gases, aerosols, and greenhouse gases, and the 4-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme makes use of multiple satellite observations of atmospheric composition in addition to meteorological observations. This paper describes the data assimilation setup of the new Composition-IFS (C-IFS) with respect to reactive gases and validates analysis fields of ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for the year 2008 against independent observations and a control run without data assimilation. The largest improvement in CO by assimilation of Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) CO columns is seen in the lower troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics during winter, and during the South African biomass-burning season. The assimilation of several O3 total column and stratospheric profile retrievals greatly improves the total column, stratospheric and upper tropospheric O3 analysis fields relative to the control run. The impact on lower tropospheric ozone, which comes from the residual of the total column and stratospheric profile O3 data, is smaller, but nevertheless there is some improvement particularly in the NH during winter and spring. The impact of the assimilation of tropospheric NO2 columns from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) is small because of the short lifetime of NO2, suggesting that NO2 observations would be better used to adjust emissions instead of initial conditions. The results further indicate that the quality of the tropospheric analyses and of the stratospheric ozone analysis obtained with the C-IFS system has improved compared to the previous "coupled" model system of MACC.
In the lowermost layer of the atmosphere—the troposphere—ozone is an important source of the hydroxyl radical, an oxidant that breaks down most pollutants and some greenhouse gases. High ...concentrations of tropospheric ozone are toxic, however, and have a detrimental effect on human health and ecosystem productivity. Moreover, tropospheric ozone itself acts as an effective greenhouse gas. Much of the present tropospheric ozone burden is a consequence of anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors resulting in widespread increases in ozone concentrations since the late 1800s. At present, east Asia has the fastest-growing ozone precursor emissions. Much of the springtime east Asian pollution is exported eastwards towards western North America. Despite evidence that the exported Asian pollution produces ozone, no previous study has found a significant increase in free tropospheric ozone concentrations above the western USA since measurements began in the late 1970s. Here we compile springtime ozone measurements from many different platforms across western North America. We show a strong increase in springtime ozone mixing ratios during 1995–2008 and we have some additional evidence that a similar rate of increase in ozone mixing ratio has occurred since 1984. We find that the rate of increase in ozone mixing ratio is greatest when measurements are more heavily influenced by direct transport from Asia. Our result agrees with previous modelling studies, which indicate that global ozone concentrations should be increasing during the early part of the twenty-first century as a result of increasing precursor emissions, especially at northern mid-latitudes, with western North America being particularly sensitive to rising Asian emissions. We suggest that the observed increase in springtime background ozone mixing ratio may hinder the USA’s compliance with its ozone air quality standard.
Increases in free-tropospheric (FT) ozone based on ozonesonde records from the early 1990s through 2008 over two subtropical stations, Irene (near Pretoria, South Africa) and Réunion (21° S, 55° E; ...~2800 km NE of Irene in the Indian Ocean), have been reported. Over Irene a large increase in the urban-influenced boundary layer (BL, 1.5–4 km) was also observed during the 18-year period, equivalent to 30% decade−1. Here we show that the Irene BL trend is at least partly due to a gradual change in the sonde launch times from early morning to the midday period. The FT ozone profiles over Irene in 1990–2007 are re-examined, filling in a 1995–1999 gap with ozone profiles taken during the Measurements of Ozone by Airbus In-service Aircraft (MOZAIC) project over nearby Johannesburg. A multivariate regression model that accounts for the annual ozone cycle, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and possible tropopause changes was applied to monthly averaged Irene data from 4 to 11 km and to 1992–2011 Réunion sonde data from 4 to 15 km. Statistically significant trends appear predominantly in the middle and upper troposphere (UT; 4–11 km over Irene, 4–15 km over Réunion) in winter (June–August), with increases ~1 ppbv yr−1 over Irene and ~2 ppbv yr−1 over Réunion. These changes are equivalent to ~25 and 35–45% decade−1, respectively. Both stations also display smaller positive trends in summer, with a 45% decade−1 ozone increase near the tropopause over Réunion in December. To explain the ozone increases, we investigated a time series of dynamical markers, e.g., potential vorticity (PV) at 330–350 K. PV affects UT ozone over Irene in November–December but displays little relationship with ozone over Réunion. A more likely reason for wintertime FT ozone increases over Irene and Réunion appears to be long-range transport of growing pollution in the Southern Hemisphere. The ozone increases are consistent with trajectory origins of air parcels sampled by the sondes and with recent NOx emissions trends estimated for Africa, South America and Madagascar. For Réunion trajectories also point to sources from the eastern Indian Ocean and Asia.
We use ozone observations from sondes, regular aircraft, and alpine surface sites in a self‐consistent analysis to determine robust changes in the time evolution of ozone over Europe. The data are ...most coherent since 1998, with similar interannual variability and trends. Ozone has decreased slowly since 1998, with an annual mean trend of −0.15 ppb yr−1 at ∼3 km and the largest decrease in summer. There are some substantial differences between the sondes and other data, particularly in the early 1990s. The alpine and aircraft data show that ozone increased from late 1994 until 1998, but the sonde data do not. Time series of differences in ozone between pairs of locations reveal inconsistencies in various data sets. Differences as small as few ppb for 2–3 years lead to different trends for 1995–2008, when all data sets overlap. Sonde data from Hohenpeissenberg and in situ data from nearby Zugspitze show ozone increased by ∼1 ppb yr−1 during 1978–1989. We construct a mean alpine time series using data for Jungfraujoch, Zugspitze, and Sonnblick. Using Zugspitze data for 1978–1989, and the mean time series since 1990, we find that the ozone increased by 6.5–10 ppb in 1978–1989 and 2.5–4.5 ppb in the 1990s and decreased by 4 ppb in the 2000s in summer with no significant changes in other seasons. It is hard to reconcile all these changes with trends in emissions of ozone precursors, and in ozone in the lowermost stratosphere. We recommend data sets that are suitable for evaluation of model hindcasts.
Key Points
Small decrease or zero trend in tropospheric ozone over Europe since late 1990s
Increases in ozone prior to late 1990s, but inconsistencies among data sets
Difficult to reconcile trends before late 1990s with known influences on ozone
The objective of this study is to analyze the pollution inflow into California during summertime and how it impacts surface air quality through combined analysis of a suite of observations and global ...and regional models. The focus is on the transpacific pollution transport investigated by the NASA Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) mission in June 2008. Additional observations include satellite retrievals of carbon monoxide and ozone by the EOS Aura Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES), aircraft measurements from the MOZAIC program and ozonesondes. We compare chemical boundary conditions (BC) from the MOZART-4 global model, which are commonly used in regional simulations, with measured concentrations to quantify both the accuracy of the model results and the variability in pollution inflow. Both observations and model reflect a large variability in pollution inflow on temporal and spatial scales, but the global model captures only about half of the observed free tropospheric variability. Model tracer contributions show a large contribution from Asian emissions in the inflow. Recirculation of local US pollution can impact chemical BC, emphasizing the importance of consistency between the global model simulations used for BC and the regional model in terms of emissions, chemistry and transport. Aircraft measurements in the free troposphere over California show similar concentration ranges, variability and source contributions as free tropospheric air masses over ocean, but caution has to be taken that local pollution aloft is not misinterpreted as inflow. A flight route specifically designed to sample boundary conditions during ARCTAS-CARB showed a prevalence of plumes transported from Asia and thus may not be fully representative for average inflow conditions. Sensitivity simulations with a regional model with altered BCs show that the temporal variability in the pollution inflow does impact modeled surface concentrations in California. We suggest that time and space varying chemical boundary conditions from global models provide useful input to regional models, but likely still lead to an underestimate of peak surface concentrations and the variability associated with long-range pollution transport.
In order to evaluate the observed high rural ozone levels in the eastern Mediterranean area during summertime, vertical profiles of ozone measured in the period 1994–2008 in the framework of the ...MOZAIC project (Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus in Service Aircraft) over the eastern Mediterranean basin (Cairo, Tel Aviv, Heraklion, Rhodes, Antalya) were analyzed, focusing in the lower troposphere (1.5–5 km). At first, vertical profiles collected during extreme days with very high or very low tropospheric ozone mixing ratios have been examined together with the corresponding back-trajectories. Also, the average profiles of ozone, relative humidity, carbon monoxide, temperature gradient and wind speed corresponding to the 7% highest and the 7% lowest ozone mixing ratios for the 1500–5000 m height layer for Cairo and Tel Aviv have been examined and the corresponding composite maps of geopotential heights at 850 hPa have been plotted. Based on the above analysis, it turns out that the lower-tropospheric ozone variability over the eastern Mediterranean area is controlled mainly by the synoptic meteorological conditions, combined with local topographical and meteorological features. In particular, the highest ozone concentrations in the lower troposphere and subsequently in the boundary layer are associated with large-scale subsidence of ozone-rich air masses from the upper troposphere under anticyclonic conditions while the lowest ozone concentrations are associated with low pressure conditions inducing uplifting of boundary-layer air, poor in ozone and rich in relative humidity, to the lower troposphere.
Abstract
Tropospheric ozone plays a major role in Earth’s atmospheric chemistry processes and also acts as an air pollutant and greenhouse gas. Due to its short lifetime, and dependence on sunlight ...and precursor emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources, tropospheric ozone’s abundance is highly variable in space and time on seasonal, interannual and decadal time-scales. Recent, and sometimes rapid, changes in observed ozone mixing ratios and ozone precursor emissions inspired us to produce this up-to-date overview of tropospheric ozone’s global distribution and trends. Much of the text is a synthesis of in situ and remotely sensed ozone observations reported in the peer-reviewed literature, but we also include some new and extended analyses using well-known and referenced datasets to draw connections between ozone trends and distributions in different regions of the world. In addition, we provide a brief evaluation of the accuracy of rural or remote surface ozone trends calculated by three state-of-the-science chemistry-climate models, the tools used by scientists to fill the gaps in our knowledge of global tropospheric ozone distribution and trends.
We present a global data set of free tropospheric ozone–CO correlations with 2° × 2.5° spatial resolution from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) satellite ...instruments for each season of 2008. OMI and AIRS have near-daily global coverage of ozone and CO respectively and observe coincident scenes with similar vertical sensitivities. The resulting ozone–CO correlations are highly statistically significant (positive or negative) in most regions of the world, and are less noisy than previous satellite-based studies that used sparser data. Comparison with ozone–CO correlations and regression slopes (dO3/dCO) from MOZAIC (Measurements of OZone, water vapour, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides by in-service AIrbus airCraft) aircraft profiles shows good general agreement. We interpret the observed ozone–CO correlations with the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System)-Chem chemical transport model to infer constraints on ozone sources. Driving GEOS-Chem with different meteorological fields generally shows consistent ozone–CO correlation patterns, except in some tropical regions where the correlations are strongly sensitive to model transport error associated with deep convection. GEOS-Chem reproduces the general structure of the observed ozone–CO correlations and regression slopes, although there are some large regional discrepancies. We examine the model sensitivity of dO3/dCO to different ozone sources (combustion, biosphere, stratosphere, and lightning NOx) by correlating the ozone change from that source to CO from the standard simulation. The model reproduces the observed positive dO3/dCO in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere in spring–summer, driven by combustion sources. Stratospheric influence there is also associated with a positive dO3/dCO because of the interweaving of stratospheric downwelling with continental outflow. The well-known ozone maximum over the tropical South Atlantic is associated with negative dO3/dCO in the observations; this feature is reproduced in GEOS-Chem and supports a dominant contribution from lightning to the ozone maximum. A major model discrepancy is found over the northeastern Pacific in summer–fall where dO3/dCO is positive in the observations but negative in the model, for all ozone sources. We suggest that this reflects a model overestimate of lightning at northern midlatitudes combined with an underestimate of the East Asian CO source.
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