The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGANv2.1) together with the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields were used to ...create a global emission data set of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) available on a monthly basis for the time period of 1980–2010. This data set, developed under the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project (MACC), is called MEGAN–MACC. The model estimated mean annual total BVOC emission of 760 Tg (C) yr−1 consisting of isoprene (70%), monoterpenes (11%), methanol (6%), acetone (3%), sesquiterpenes (2.5%) and other BVOC species each contributing less than 2%. Several sensitivity model runs were performed to study the impact of different model input and model settings on isoprene estimates and resulted in differences of up to ±17% of the reference isoprene total. A greater impact was observed for a sensitivity run applying parameterization of soil moisture deficit that led to a 50% reduction of isoprene emissions on a global scale, most significantly in specific regions of Africa, South America and Australia. MEGAN–MACC estimates are comparable to results of previous studies. More detailed comparison with other isoprene inventories indicated significant spatial and temporal differences between the data sets especially for Australia, Southeast Asia and South America. MEGAN–MACC estimates of isoprene, α-pinene and group of monoterpenes showed a reasonable agreement with surface flux measurements at sites located in tropical forests in the Amazon and Malaysia. The model was able to capture the seasonal variation of isoprene emissions in the Amazon forest.
The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Danabasoglu, G.; Lamarque, J.‐F.; Bacmeister, J. ...
Journal of advances in modeling earth systems,
February 2020, Letnik:
12, Številka:
2
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
An overview of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) is provided, including a discussion of the challenges encountered during its development and how they were addressed. In addition, an ...evaluation of a pair of CESM2 long preindustrial control and historical ensemble simulations is presented. These simulations were performed using the nominal 1° horizontal resolution configuration of the coupled model with both the “low‐top” (40 km, with limited chemistry) and “high‐top” (130 km, with comprehensive chemistry) versions of the atmospheric component. CESM2 contains many substantial science and infrastructure improvements and new capabilities since its previous major release, CESM1, resulting in improved historical simulations in comparison to CESM1 and available observations. These include major reductions in low‐latitude precipitation and shortwave cloud forcing biases; better representation of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation; better El Niño‐Southern Oscillation‐related teleconnections; and a global land carbon accumulation trend that agrees well with observationally based estimates. Most tropospheric and surface features of the low‐ and high‐top simulations are very similar to each other, so these improvements are present in both configurations. CESM2 has an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 5.1–5.3 °C, larger than in CESM1, primarily due to a combination of relatively small changes to cloud microphysics and boundary layer parameters. In contrast, CESM2's transient climate response of 1.9–2.0 °C is comparable to that of CESM1. The model outputs from these and many other simulations are available to the research community, and they represent CESM2's contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6.
Plain Language Summary
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is an open‐source, comprehensive model used in simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future climates. The newest version, CESM2, has many new technical and scientific capabilities ranging from a more realistic representation of Greenland's evolving ice sheet, to the ability to model in detail how crops interact with the larger Earth system, to improved representation of clouds and rain, and to the addition of wind‐driven waves on the model's ocean surface. The data sets from a large set of simulations that include integrations for the preindustrial conditions (1850s) and for the 1850‐2014 historical period are available to the community, representing CESM2's contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).
Key Points
Community Earth System Model Version 2 includes many substantial science and infrastructure improvements since its previous version
Preindustrial control and historical simulations were performed with low‐top and high‐top with comprehensive chemistry atmospheric models
Comparisons to observations are improved relative to previous versions, including major reductions in radiation and precipitation biases
Atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols play an important role in the climate system by influencing the Earth's radiation budgets and modifying the cloud properties. Despite the importance, their ...representations in large-scale atmospheric models are still crude, which can influence model simulated burden, lifetime, physical, chemical and optical properties, and the climate forcing of carbonaceous aerosols. In this study, we improve the current three-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM3) in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) by introducing an additional primary carbon mode to explicitly account for the microphysical ageing of primary carbonaceous aerosols in the atmosphere. Compared to MAM3, the four-mode version of MAM (MAM4) significantly increases the column burdens of primary particulate organic matter (POM) and black carbon (BC) by up to 40 % in many remote regions, where in-cloud scavenging plays an important role in determining the aerosol concentrations. Differences in the column burdens for other types of aerosol (e.g., sulfate, secondary organic aerosols, mineral dust, sea salt) are less than 1 %. Evaluating the MAM4 simulation against in situ surface and aircraft observations, we find that MAM4 significantly improves the simulation of seasonal variation of near-surface BC concentrations in the polar regions, by increasing the BC concentrations in all seasons and particularly in cold seasons. However, it exacerbates the overestimation of modeled BC concentrations in the upper troposphere in the Pacific regions. The comparisons suggest that, to address the remaining model POM and BC biases, future improvements are required related to (1) in-cloud scavenging and vertical transport in convective clouds and (2) emissions of anthropogenic and biomass burning aerosols.
Decarbonization in the immediate future is required to limit global mean temperature (GMT) increase to 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions, if geoengineering is not considered. Here we use the ...Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate climate outcomes if no mitigation is undertaken until GMT has reached 2°C. We find that late decarbonization in CESM without applying stratospheric sulfur injection (SSI) leads to a peak temperature increase of 3°C and GMT remains above 2° for 160 years. An additional gradual increase and then decrease of SSI over this period reaching about 1.5 times the aerosol burden resulting from the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1992 would limit the increase in GMT to 2.0° for the specific pathway and model. SSI produces mean and extreme temperatures in CESM comparable to an early decarbonization pathway, but aridity is not mitigated to the same extent.
Key Points
A scenario with aggressive decarbonization after unmitigated warming of 2°C has occurred leads to further warming of 1°C in CESM
In this late decarbonization scenario, stratospheric sulfur injection would be necessary for 160 years to limit warming to 2°C in CESM
Extremely warm temperatures but only some drying of land can be reduced in a late mitigation scenario including SRM in CESM
Despite the potential influence of iodine chemistry on the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere, reactive iodine distributions and their impact on tropospheric ozone remain almost unexplored aspects ...of the global atmosphere. Here we present a comprehensive global modelling experiment aimed at estimating lower and upper limits of the inorganic iodine burden and its impact on tropospheric ozone. Two sets of simulations without and with the photolysis of IxOy oxides (i.e. I2O2, I2O3 and I2O4) were conducted to define the range of inorganic iodine loading, partitioning and impact in the troposphere. Our results show that the most abundant daytime iodine species throughout the middle to upper troposphere is atomic iodine, with an annual average tropical abundance of (0.15–0.55) pptv. We propose the existence of a "tropical ring of atomic iodine" that peaks in the tropical upper troposphere (~11–14 km) at the equator and extends to the sub-tropics (30° N–30° S). Annual average daytime I / IO ratios larger than 3 are modelled within the tropics, reaching ratios up to ~20 during vigorous uplift events within strong convective regions. We calculate that the integrated contribution of catalytic iodine reactions to the total rate of tropospheric ozone loss (IOx Loss) is 2–5 times larger than the combined bromine and chlorine cycles. When IxOy photolysis is included, IOx Loss represents an upper limit of approximately 27, 14 and 27% of the tropical annual ozone loss for the marine boundary layer (MBL), free troposphere (FT) and upper troposphere (UT), respectively, while the lower limit throughout the tropical troposphere is ~9%. Our results indicate that iodine is the second strongest ozone-depleting family throughout the global marine UT and in the tropical MBL. We suggest that (i) iodine sources and its chemistry need to be included in global tropospheric chemistry models, (ii) experimental programs designed to quantify the iodine budget in the troposphere should include a strategy for the measurement of atomic I, and (iii) laboratory programs are needed to characterize the photochemistry of higher iodine oxides to determine their atmospheric fate since they can potentially dominate halogen-catalysed ozone destruction in the troposphere.
The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) is a major update of the whole atmosphere modeling capability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM), featuring enhanced physical, ...chemical and aerosol parameterizations. This work describes WACCM6 and some of the important features of the model. WACCM6 can reproduce many modes of variability and trends in the middle atmosphere, including the quasi‐biennial oscillation, stratospheric sudden warmings, and the evolution of Southern Hemisphere springtime ozone depletion over the twentieth century. WACCM6 can also reproduce the climate and temperature trends of the 20th century throughout the atmospheric column. The representation of the climate has improved in WACCM6, relative to WACCM4. In addition, there are improvements in high‐latitude climate variability at the surface and sea ice extent in WACCM6 over the lower top version of the model (CAM6) that comes from the extended vertical domain and expanded aerosol chemistry in WACCM6, highlighting the importance of the stratosphere and tropospheric chemistry for high‐latitude climate variability.
Plain Language Summary
This manuscript describes the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (WACCM6), a chemistry and climate model which extends up to 140 km in the upper atmosphere. WACCM6 reproduces many important features of the climate system, and the addition of detailed chemistry and the higher than normal model top produces slightly improved simulations of the Arctic region.
Key Points
WACCM6 is a major upgrade to previous versions
WACCM6 can reproduce many modes of variability and trends in the middle atmosphere
WACCM6 provides improvements in high‐latitude climate variability at the surface and sea ice extent over a low top model
Stratospheric sulfate geoengineering could impact the terrestrial carbon cycle by enhancing the carbon sink. With an 8 Tg yr−1 injection of SO2 to produce a stratospheric aerosol cloud to balance ...anthropogenic radiative forcing from the Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6.0) scenario, we conducted climate model simulations with the Community Earth System Model – the Community Atmospheric Model 4 fully coupled to tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry (CAM4–chem). During the geoengineering period, as compared to RCP6.0, land-averaged downward visible (300–700 nm) diffuse radiation increased 3.2 W m−2 (11 %). The enhanced diffuse radiation combined with the cooling increased plant photosynthesis by 0.07 ± 0.02 µmol C m−2 s−1, which could contribute to an additional 3.8 ± 1.1 Gt C yr−1 global gross primary productivity without explicit nutrient limitation. This increase could potentially increase the land carbon sink. Suppressed plant and soil respiration due to the cooling would reduce natural land carbon emission and therefore further enhance the terrestrial carbon sink during the geoengineering period. This potentially beneficial impact of stratospheric sulfate geoengineering would need to be balanced by a large number of potential risks in any future decisions about the implementation of geoengineering.
As a potential approach to prevent dangerous climate change, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) aims to reflect some incoming solar radiation into space and reduce temperatures. Previous ...modeling studies suggest that storm tracks will shift poleward due to the increases in the greenhouse gas concentrations. As a consequence of this, the Middle East, North Africa, and Mediterranean regions will most likely experience a strong precipitation decrease, increasing the pressure on the region's vulnerable environment. Our results from an Earth system model indicate that SAG can partially offset the poleward shift of the storm tracks, thus potentially soothing the environmental and water stresses of the region. However, other climatic side effects may occur, hence still motivating ambitious mitigation action to reduce emissions and impacts of global warming. The results presented may have practical implications for ongoing climate policy debates in the region.
Plain Language Summary
As a potential approach to prevent dangerous climate change, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering aims to reflect a small percentage of incoming solar radiation into space to reduce the global mean temperature. However, regional impacts are not clear, especially in the global south. This article provides the first analysis of changes in the storm‐tracks from stratospheric aerosol geoengineering in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The results of our study indicate that the poleward shift of the storm‐tracks due to increases in the greenhouse gas concentration could be partially offset, and thus potentially sooth some of the environmental, in particular water, stresses. However, other side effects may occur, motivating for an ambitious mitigation pathway still.
Key Points
The response of storm tracks in the Middle East and North Africa to stratospheric geoengineering is investigated
Simulations show that effects of global warming may be partially offset, through a reduced northwards shift of storm tracks. However, it involves side effect, not present in the global warming scenario
Some of the environmental and water stresses of the region may be alleviated by stratospheric geoengineering
We use a global coupled chemistry-climate-land model (CESM) to assess the integrated effect of climate, emissions and land use changes on annual surface O3 and PM2.5 in the United States with a focus ...on national parks (NPs) and wilderness areas, using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections. We show that, when stringent domestic emission controls are applied, air quality is predicted to improve across the US, except surface O3 over the western and central US under RCP8.5 conditions, where rising background ozone counteracts domestic emission reductions. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, surface O3 is substantially reduced (about 5 ppb), with daily maximum 8 h averages below the primary US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of 75 ppb (and even 65 ppb) in all the NPs. PM2.5 is significantly reduced in both scenarios (4 mu g m-3; similar to 50%), with levels below the annual US EPA NAAQS of 12 mu g m-3 across all the NPs; visibility is also improved (10-15 dv; >75 km in visibility range), although some western US parks with Class I status (40-74 % of total sites in the US) are still above the 2050 planned target level to reach the goal of natural visibility conditions by 2064. We estimate that climate-driven increases in fire activity may dominate summertime PM2.5 over the western US, potentially offsetting the large PM2.5 reductions from domestic emission controls, and keeping visibility at present-day levels in many parks. Our study indicates that anthropogenic emission patterns will be important for air quality in 2050. However, climate and land use changes alone may lead to a substantial increase in surface O3 (2-3 ppb) with important consequences for O3 air quality and ecosystem degradation at the US NPs. Our study illustrates the need to consider the effects of changes in climate, vegetation, and fires in future air quality management and planning and emission policy making.
Understanding changes in the burden and growth rate of atmospheric methane (CH4) has been the focus of several recent studies but still lacks scientific consensus. Here we investigate the role of ...decreasing anthropogenic carbon monoxide (CO) emissions since 2002 on hydroxyl radical (OH) sinks and tropospheric CH4 loss. We quantify this impact by contrasting two model simulations for 2002–2013: (1) a Measurement of the Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) CO reanalysis and (2) a Control‐Run without CO assimilation. These simulations are performed with the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry of the Community Earth System Model fully coupled chemistry climate model with prescribed CH4 surface concentrations. The assimilation of MOPITT observations constrains the global CO burden, which significantly decreased over this period by ~20%. We find that this decrease results to (a) increase in CO chemical production, (b) higher CH4 oxidation by OH, and (c) ~8% shorter CH4 lifetime. We elucidate this coupling by a surrogate mechanism for CO‐OH‐CH4 that is quantified from the full chemistry simulations.
Key Points
Decreases in tropospheric CO from 2002 to 2012 indicate an increase in CH4 chemical loss
There is a positive trend in the chemical production of CO from CH4 in the tropics
We infer a reduced growth rate in CH4 burden due to decreases in anthropogenic CO emissions
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