In recent years, the maritime trade of crude oil has suffered notable perturbations caused by the unbalanced relationship between supply and demand. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a drop in oil ...consumption in 2019, followed by a reduction in production in 2020. The seaborne transport of oil accounts for approximately 50–60% of all crude oil in world production. The crude oil market is a crucial regulator of the global economy and instabilities in this market have noticeable effects on collective risks. The immediate risks that the society see are the changes in the cost of living, which are followed by political uncertainties. Less visible are the risks that these uncertainties have on shipping companies and the level of management stability they have to maintain in order to keep seagoing safe. This paper presents an update on the overall state of risk management for the crude oil tanker fleet, evidenced by EMSA and other international marine organisations. The previous paper, entitled Safety Assessment of Crude Oil Tankers, which applied the methodology of the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA), was published in 2018 and covered the historical data related to the fleet size, accident reports, amount of oil spilled on sea and the economic value of the crude oil transport business. The particular focus of this paper is on the evolution of the risk acceptance criteria over the years and the difference in the predictions from 2018 to the present day. The effects of the pandemic on crude oil shipping are discussed through the changes in the risks. Three of them are analysed: PLL (potential loss of lives), PLC (potential loss of containment) and PLP (potential loss of property). The representation of the risk applies the F-N curves among the risk acceptance criteria lines observed for different tanker sizes. Among the three risks, the paper exposes the vulnerability of the loss of containment risk, where the strong economic impact of the oil trade outweighs the environmental concerns. In relation to the PLC, the paper proposes the approach of relating the oil spill acceptability with the spill quantity and ship revenue instead of to the cost of cleaning or the cost of environment recovery.
Accidents in port areas are generally relatively minor given the lower prevailing speeds, but dangerous cargo terminals located in the vicinity of populated areas present some risk of accidents with ...catastrophic consequences. The maritime risk assessment frameworks have been developed in many ports, but few include studies incorporating collisions between sailing and moored ships. This paper presents the risk assessment framework for such accidents. Moreover, it presents the important role of harbour regulations in the navigation risk management process within the port area. Today’s port regulations are created mostly based on the good practice of pilots and other experts, whereas quantitative methods are used less frequently. The intention of the presented case study was to demonstrate how quantitative risk assessment may be used in port policy development, which is why the method created is general and may be used in any terminal with dangerous cargo. The multi-stage method consists of several steps that make up a complex methodology, consisting of expert study, real-time simulation—a simulation of a collision in port is presented—and analytical-empirical calculations for consequence assessment. The case studies of the developed method are presented based on two real accidents, one in the Police port along the Świnoujście-Szczecin waterway, and the second in the Port of Koper in Slovenia. The results of this study present the parameters of the ship’s safe approach to the terminal area, such as velocity and approaching angle. These parameters are used to calculate the impact forces in the case of a collision between a moored and passing ship and its consequences on ship integrity as well as on mooring arrangement. Based on probability and consequences, the risk is evaluated and discussed in the sense of port safety. The presented method could be used as the framework for risk assessment of collisions in a port area, particularly when dealing with dangerous cargo or sensitive vessels such as cruise ships.
This article takes a close look at the landscape of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) spoofing. It is well known that automated identification system (AIS) spoofing can be used for electronic ...warfare to conceal military activities in sensitive sea areas; however, recent events suggest that there is a similar interest of spoofing AIS signals for commercial purposes. The shipping industry is currently experiencing an unprecedented period of deceptive practices by tanker operators seeking to evade sanctions. Last year’s announcement of a price cap on Russian crude oil and a new ban on Western companies insuring Russian cargoes is setting the stage for an increase in illegal activity. Our research team identified and documented the AIS position falsification by tankers transporting Russian crude oil in closed ship-to-ship (STS) oil transfers. The identification of the falsified positions is based on the repeated instances of discrepancies between AIS location suggestions and satellite radar imagery indications. Using the data methods at our disposal, we reconstructed the true movements of certain tankers and encountered some surprising behavior. These false ship positions make it clear that we need effective tools and strategies to ensure the reliability and robustness of AISs.
Approaches to risk assessment in tunnelling and underground spaces were introduced in 2004 as a result of several serious accidents in tunnels such as Mont Blanc and Tauern Tunnel in 1999. The EU has ...published the minimum safety requirements for tunnels over 500 m on Trans-European Road Network. The risk assessment is mandatory and should cover all components of the system, i.e. infrastructure, operation, users and vehicles. The professional community has started using the quantitative risk assessment approach, where the crucial issue is the consequence analysis of fire scenarios in a tunnel. Fire development is a complex physical phenomenon and its calculation is time consuming, therefore, complex models have rarely been used in quantitative risk assessment approaches. This paper presents the methodology of integrating fast-processing risk assessment methods with time-consuming CFD methods for fire consequence analysis in the process of tunnel safety assessment. The main variables are soot density and temperature, which are analyzed in one-minute time steps during the fire. Human behavior is considered with the evacuation model, which is needed to evaluate fatalities during the fire process. The application of the methodology is presented based on the evaluation of the national tolerable risk for tunnel transport and compared with referenced EU risk criteria. Furthermore, the presented methodology links CFD simulation results and the quantitative risk assessment approach, still representing the collective risk with F-N curves.
No advance in navigation has yet to prevent the occurrence of accidents (incidents are always implied when we discuss accidents) at sea. At the same time, advances in accident models are possible, ...and may provide the basis for investigations and analyses to help prevent future adverse events and improve the safety of marine transport systems. In such complex socio-technical systems models that treat accidents as the result of a chain or sequence of events are used most commonly. Such models are well suited to damage caused by failure of physical components in relatively simple systems. Although these often include methods for modeling human error, they do not cover broader aspects related to the management of the organization using the means of transport itself (shipowners) nor errors that may occur in the design phase. In particular, they do not cover changes in the systems over time. The paper presents accident investigation approaches and uses a modified causal model to analyze an incident that occurred in January 2019 on the city ferry in Świnoujście. The results of the analysis were used to provide guidelines for increasing safety at the crossing and to evaluate the accident analysis model used. Additionally, incidentally, through the study of this case we uncovered a problem in communication among stakeholders that unnecessarily complicates the models for the models for the improvement of safety.
Laser-Based Aid Systems for Berthing and Docking Perkovič, Marko; Gucma, Lucjan; Bilewski, Mateusz ...
Journal of marine science and engineering,
05/2020, Letnik:
8, Številka:
5
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The berthing of an ultra large ship is always a difficult issue and becomes yet more complex when vessels must be handled in restricted manoeuvring areas of limited depth, exposed to a forceful ...crosswind, or manoeuvring in a strong current, or all three. The final approaching manoeuvre and precise positioning is particularly demanding at container terminals where many STS cranes are located along the quay, seriously limiting margin for error in the process of mooring a ship, especially when the cranes are located nearby a bridge wing or at the very edge of the pier. In order to avoid collisions, the final manoeuvre (side-push) must be fully controlled; the ship’s orientation must be parallel with the quay while maintaining the minimum lateral approaching velocity without significantly shifting the vessel longitudinally. The mooring of a Ro-Ro vessel is occasionally even more challenging: a precise docking manoeuvre is normally executed without any towing assistance. In this paper low cost laser-based berthing and docking systems developed for the ports of Koper and Swinousce are presented and several berthing manoeuvres are analysed and compared with the most commonly used GNSS-based navigational aid system portable pilot units (PPU).
AA simplified approach developed to evaluate the vibration levels of complex structures such as passenger and similar ships with large shell and deck openings and extended superstructures is here ...presented. The final objective is to give an useful tool to ship designers, to establish since the first design stage the dynamic response of the ship with sufficient precision. This approach is based on the assumption that the ship hull can be represented as a non uniform section beam. The propeller excitations in terms of pressure pulses and shaft line moments and forces are introduced. To take into account this exciting source in the early design stage a statistical formula for dynamic excitation of propeller was developed. Furthermore the superimposition of local effects has been performed with the use of an analytical formula. The local effect due to the different space topologies such as cabins, public spaces, technical and machinery areas has been taken into account. The transversal beams, longitudinal girders, stiffeners and pillars as supported structural elements are considered in the vibration local response. The reliability of the results obtained using the formula has been improved with more precise results obtained by FEM analysis. The calculated vibration response has been verified and compared to vibration measurements performed on board of ships.
The continuing growth of the LNG (liquid natural gas) industry has led to a rapid increase in the construction of LNG terminals and the need for accurate risk assessment models as accidents involving ...LNG are potentially hazardous and pose a major threat. One aspect of risk modeling - evacuation of people to the safe zones of an LNG terminal - is a complex problem that has yet to receive sufficient attention. The aim of this paper is to illustrate how the implementation of a technologically advanced evacuation model may decrease risk during potential accidents in an LNG terminal. Keywords: LNG; evacuation model; risk analysis
•Characterization of LNG dispersion via Unified Dispersion Model and CFD models.•Identification of possible releasing points in the port of Koper.•Evaluation of the effect of evaporation rates on CFD ...estimations.•Assessment of the effects of turbulence sub-model on CFD.
The challenges of ensuring green shipping and green ports force ports to adequately and safely implement engineered systems for the distribution and supply of LNG in port areas that meet the requirements of Seveso Directive. As the process of LNG bunkering is only seemingly similar to classical oil bunkering or liquid cargo, the handling of the technical and safety challenges is much more subject to investigation.
In this work, the dispersion part of the consequences of LNG release, pooling, evaporation and dispersion during the future bunkering operation in the port of Koper, Slovenia, where the populated area (city) is located in close proximity. We follow the comparison of three different tools, namely the model Unified Dispersion Model (UDM) implemented by the software PHAST from DNV-GL® and two CFD (FDS - Fire Dynamics Simulator from NIST and Ansys Fluent®) in the same case scenario. Geometry, initial and boundary conditions are assumed to be the same as far as possible according to the limitations of the respective software tools. The simulation tools are first applied to a flat terrain model and later the models of CFD are compared, including the 3D geometry of the dock site in real size, with two relevant wind directions. The effects of evaporation rates on water and turbulence on CFD estimates are also given and numerically tested. The results of the applied models provide valuable information for further establishment of similar LNG leakage and dispersion models for simulation in ports or similar facilities.
•Research on the risk level for oil tankers ship.•Observing the relation between global risk statistics and the risk of a ship.•Conjunction of quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods for ...specific risk estimation.•Comparison of different risks and their influence on seaborne activity.
Crude oil tankers are transporting between 50 and 60 percent of all crude oil in world production. These huge amounts of black gold represent a source of a global economic development at the same time as they represent a threat for the sea and coastal environment. The transport of goods with ships is a controlled system, systematically managed by ship companies and regulated by international maritime standards. The control of different risks could, therefore, be monitored and managed.
The paper presents the overall risk management state for the crude oil tanker fleet evidenced by EMSA, and other international marine organisations. Based on historical statistical data, related to fleet size, accident reports, amount of oil spilled on the sea and the economic value of the crude oil transport business, the risk acceptance criteria are evaluated. The Formal Safety Assessment is further used for a systematic assessment of risk where potential hazards are analysed with structured methods (HAZID and HAZOP) and represented in events trees. The paper studies three risks: PLL (potential loss of lives), PLC (potential loss of containment) and PLP (potential loss of property). A general approach is presented and discussed with a particular focus on the evolution of risk acceptance in recent decades and evaluations of risk F-N curves for different tanker sizes.
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