•Climate change impactonhydrologyis studied using the HBV-light model and ANN.•No notable changes in the availability of water are predicted on an annual scale.•Discharge, precipitation and ...groundwater levels will decrease in the warm season.•The quantity of water will likely increase in the cold season.•The non-uniformity of monthly water distributions is expected to increase.
The catchment of the Toplica River, situated in an underdeveloped region of southern Serbia, is studied to examine the potential impact of climate change on the hydrologic regime of mountainous catchments. The study projects precipitation (P), air temperature (T), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and discharge (Q) in the entire catchment, as well as groundwater level (GWL) variation in the lowland part of the catchment, according to scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Projections of P and T are based on the results of a multimodel ensemble of seven regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX project. Runoff is simulated by a calibrated HBV-light model. The correlation between GWL and river discharge was modeled by soft computing techniques of artificial neural networks (ANN). The projections pertain to the period from 2021 to 2100. The Mann-Kendall trend test is used to check for a trend and its statistical significance, and the Mann-Whitney test to examine the statistical significance of a change in the mean ensemble median of time-series for the near future (2021–2050) and distant future (2071–2100), relative to the reference period (1971–2000). No notable changes are expected on an annual scale in the study area. However, the results show that the current non-uniformity of the monthly water distribution is growing. In the winter months at the end of the century, in RCP8.5, P and T are expected to increase, as is Q. Groundwater responds to increased river discharges by reduced depths to groundwater (increased GWL). A higher Q increases the flood risk in the winter months. In the warm season, RCP8.5 predicts a decrease in Q and increase in the depth to groundwater in the distant future. Reduced quantities of water in the warm period might have an adverse effect on drinking water supply, agriculture, hydropower, fisheries, ecology, and tourism in the study area.
The commercial apple production in Norway is limited to the small regions along the fjords in the southwest part of the country and around lakes or near the sea in the southeast with favorable ...climate. Due to the rapid rate of climate change over the recent decades, it is expected that suitable heat conditions for apple growing will expand to the areas that were previously too cold. This study analyses the heat suitability of future climate (2021–2100) under the RCP8.5 scenario for 6 common apple varieties in Norway: Discovery, Gravenstein, Summerred, Aroma, Rubinstep and Elstar. Previously established heat requirement criteria (based on the temperature threshold for the full blooming and growing degree days sum between the full bloom and harvest) are applied to the temperature outputs of the regional climate models downscaled to 1 km resolution. The assessment indicates that as temperature rises, heat conditions suitable for cultivation of all 6 apple varieties will expand. According to the ensemble median value, areas with the favorable heat conditions for growing at least one of the considered apple varieties will increase 25 times in the period 2021–2040 and 60 times in the period 2041–2060, compared to the referent period 1971–2000. At the same time, areas suitable for all 6 apple varieties will increase 3 times in the first, and 3.8 times in the latter period. The favorable areas will advance from south and southeast northwards and inland in the eastern region, along the west and northwestern coastline towards higher latitudes, and along continental parts of fjords. The fastest expansion of heat suitable conditions is expected for Discovery and Gravenstein. The findings of this study are relevant for zoning apple production future potential and for strategical planning of climate change adaptation measures within the sector. Weather-related risks, such as risks from winter low temperatures, spring frost, drought and extreme precipitation were not considered.
The Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System (IAPS) was a two-year project for the development of the long term forecast (LRF) for agricultural producers. Using LRF in decision-making, to ...reduce the risks and seize the opportunities, represents short-term adaptation to climate change. High-resolution ensemble forecasts (51 forecasts) were made for a period of 7 months and were initiated on the first day of each month. For the initial testing of the capacity of LRF to provide useful information for producers, 2017 was chosen as the test year as it had a very hot summer and severe drought, which caused significant impacts on agricultural production. LRF was very useful in predicting the variables which bear the memory of the longer period, such are growing degree days for the prediction of dates of the phenophases’ occurrences and the soil moisture of deeper soil layers as an indicator for the drought. Other project activities included field observations, communication with producers, web portal development, etc. Our results showed that the selected priority forecasting products were also identified by the producers as being the highest weather-related risks, the operational forecast implementation with the products designed for the use in agricultural production is proven to be urgent and necessary for decision-making, and required investments are affordable. The total cost of the full upgrade of agrometeorological climate services to meet current needs (including monitoring, seamless forecasting system development and the development of tools for information dissemination) was found to be about three orders of magnitude lower than the assessed losses in agricultural production in the two extreme years over the past decade.
The mineralogical composition of airborne dust particles is an important but often neglected parameter for several physiochemical processes, such as atmospheric radiative transfer and ocean ...biochemistry. We present the development of the METAL-WRF module for the simulation of the composition of desert dust minerals in atmospheric aerosols. The new development is based on the GOCART-AFWA dust module of WRF-Chem. A new wet deposition scheme has been implemented in the dust module alongside the existing dry deposition scheme. The new model includes separate prognostic fields for nine (9) minerals: illite, kaolinite, smectite, calcite, quartz, feldspar, hematite, gypsum, and phosphorus, derived from the GMINER30 database and also iron derived from the FERRUM30 database. Two regional model sensitivity studies are presented for dust events that occurred in August and December 2017, which include a comparison of the model versus elemental dust composition measurements performed in the North Atlantic (at Izaña Observatory, Tenerife Island) and in the eastern Mediterranean (at Agia Marina Xyliatos station, Cyprus Island). The results indicate the important role of dust minerals, as dominant aerosols, for the greater region of North Africa, South Europe, the North Atlantic, and the Middle East, including the dry and wet depositions away from desert sources. Overall, METAL-WRF was found to be capable of reproducing the relative abundances of the different dust minerals in the atmosphere. In particular, the concentration of iron (Fe), which is an important element for ocean biochemistry and solar absorption, was modeled in good agreement with the corresponding measurements at Izaña Observatory (22% overestimation) and at Agia Marina Xyliatos site (4% overestimation). Further model developments, including the implementation of newer surface mineralogical datasets, e.g., from the NASA-EMIT satellite mission, can be implemented in the model to improve its accuracy.
On 2 June 2014, at about 13 UTC, a dust storm arrived in Tehran as a severe hazard that caused injures, deaths, failures in power supply, and traffic disruption. Such an extreme event is not ...considered as common for the Tehran area, which has raised the question of the dust storm’s origin and the need for increasing citizens’ preparedness during such events. The analysis of the observational data and numerical simulations using coupled dust-atmospheric models showed that intensive convective activity occurred over the south and southwest of Tehran, which produced cold downdrafts and, consequently, high-velocity surface winds. Different dust source masks were used as an input for model hindcasts of the event (forecasts of the past event) to show the capability of the numerical models to perform high-quality forecasts in such events and to expand the knowledge on the storm’s formation and progression. In addition to the proven capability of the models, if engaged in operational use to contribute to the establishment of an early warning system for dust storms, another conclusion appeared as a highlight of this research: abandoned agricultural areas south of Tehran were responsible for over 50% of the airborne dust concentration within the dust storm that surged through Tehran. Such a dust source in the numerical simulation produced a PM10 surface dust concentration of several thousand μm/m3, which classifies it as a dust source hot-spot. The produced evidence indivisibly links issues of land degradation, extreme weather, environmental protection, and health and safety.
Climate change, through changes in temperature, precipitation, and frequency of extreme events, has influenced agricultural production and food security over the past several decades. In order to ...assess climate and weather-related risks to fruit and grape production in Serbia, changes in bioclimatic indices and frequency of the occurrence of unfavourable weather events are spatially analysed for the past two decades (1998–2017) and the standard climatological period 1961–1990. Between the two periods, the Winkler and Huglin indices changed into a warmer category in most of the viticultural regions of Serbia. The average change shift was about 200 m towards higher elevations. Regarding the frequency of spring frost, high summer temperatures and water deficit, the most vulnerable regions in terms of fruit and grape production are found alongside large rivers (Danube, Sava, Great and South Morava), as well as in the northern part of the country. Regions below 300 m are under increased risk of high summer temperatures, as the number and duration of occurrences increased significantly over the studied periods. The high-resolution spatial analysis presented here gives an assessment of the climate change influence on the fruit and grapes production. The presented approach may be used in regional impact assessments and national planning of adaptation measures, and it may help increase resilience of agricultural production to climate change.
Agricultural production is already, and obviously, affected by climate change. Adapting to climate change includes reducing future risks to ensure yield quality and quantity and considers seizing any ...potential opportunities induced by climate change. In higher latitude areas, such as Norway, cold climate limits the cultivation of fruits. An increase in temperature offers more favorable conditions for fruit production. In this study, using available phenological observations (full blooming) and harvest dates, and meteorological data from the experimental orchard of NIBIO Ullensvang, the minimum heat requirements for growing different apple varieties are determined. Those criteria are used for zoning of the areas with heat favorable conditions for apple growing. Data on six varieties were used, with lower and higher requirements for heat for fruit development (Discovery, Gravenstein, Summerred, Aroma, Rubinstep, and Elstar). High resolution daily temperature data were generated and used for zoning of the areas with heat favorable conditions for apple growing within the selected domain, which includes Western Norway, Southern Norway, Eastern Norway, and the western part of Trøndelag, Mid-Norway. Dynamics of the change in such surfaces was assessed for the period of 1961–2020. The total surface with favorable heat conditions for growing the varieties with lesser requirement for heat increased three times during this period. The growing of more heat-demanding varieties increased from near zero to about 2.5% of the studied land surface. In the period of 2011–2020, surface area with favorable heat conditions for apple growing was almost 27,000 km2, and a surface area of about 4600 km2 can sustain growing of more heat-demanding varieties. The presented results show the increasing potential of the climate of Norway for apple cultivation and highlight the importance of implementation of fruit production planned according to climate change trends, including the assessment of potential risks from climate hazards. However, the methodology for determining heat requirements can be improved by using phenological ripening dates if available, rather than harvest dates which are impacted by human decision. Zoning of areas with the potential of sustainable apple growing requires the use of future climate change assessments and information on land-related features.
Analysis of climate change in Serbia was done using the data available from the Digital Climate Atlas of Serbia. It includes observed climate change and future climate change projections according to ...scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, until the end of 21st century, compared to the reference period 1961-1990. According to the main climate change indicator, change of average air temperature, climate change is accelerating. Results showed that climate conditions in the mid-century period are known with high reliability, while changes of climate conditions in the second half of the century depend on reductions of global net emissions of greenhouse gases, i.e. on the fulfillment of the Paris agreement. In this paper, the changes in climate hazards are presented. They are of highest significance for risk increase in health and safety and in agriculture. For the mid-century period, an expected increase of average air temperature for Serbia is about 3.1?C. Expected frequency of extreme precipitation is at least once per year. Each year is most likely expected to be a year with drought. Average frequency of days per year, with temperatures above 35?C, for the territory of Serbia, will be in the range of 9-13, compared to one day in the reference period. In the paper the summary of climate change characteristics in Serbia is also given, based on the presented results and results derived from the literature, categorized into groups of climate hazards, which cause: too warm conditions, too wet conditions, too dry conditions and storms.
Viticulture production, like the entire agriculture, is subject to climate changes related to a significant increase in air temperature. High air temperatures during the ripening period negatively ...affect the yield and quality of grapes. Apart from the increase in air temperature, grape production is also affected by rainfall and the frequency of extreme events. Climate projections for the future predict a further increase in air temperature and a change in the most important viticultural indices. The analysis shows that there has been a change in the climate category according to WI and HI values, and in some areas also CI. The Drought Index (DI) does not show significant changes in the first two periods (2021- 2040; 2041-2060), in contrast to the increased frequency of droughts and the extension of the duration of the dry period during the year. Since the most significant risks in viticulture come from high temperatures during the grape ripening period and from hail and stormy weather during the growing season, appropriate adaptation measures are needed.
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