Beyond the structural drivers such as distance from the road, rural/urban divide or demographic profiles, not much is known about the spatial relationship between HIV and social covariates. Spatial ...relations between social covariates and HIV infection of persons above 15 years were explored and mapped using geographically weighted regression model using data from a national HIV household survey conducted in 2008 and comprising 23 369 individuals from approximately 1000 enumeration areas that were randomly selected from the national census. The maps show spatial non-stationarity in relationship between local patterns of HIV prevalence and the social covariates across South Africa. The high prevalence districts have very homogeneous population defined by the following characteristics: Black origin, unfavorable sex ratio (high proportion of females), low socioeconomic status, being single or low marriage rates, multiple sexual partners and intergenerational sex. Markedly, intergenerational sex compounds the risk of acquiring HIV infection for females in poor districts. Identification of key social drivers of HIV and how they vary from location to location can help to effectively guide and focus intervention programs to areas of particular need.
A major consequence of South Africa's strong economic growth since the democratic dispensation of 1994 is the rapid increase in domestic demand for oil energy. With small amounts of proven oil ...reserves, the rise in oil demand as an energy source has resulted in South Africa's growing dependence on external sources for its domestic crude oil needs. High oil prices, instability in major oil producing regions and the rise in ‘oil-nationalism’ are major concerns for the security of South Africa's oil supplies. Accordingly, a comprehensive understanding of oil import security risks can serve as a vital guide in formulating any energy policy framework(s) aimed at alleviating the impact of such risks. This study utilises portfolio theory and develops an empirical framework to provide quantitative measures of systematic and specific risks of South Africa's crude oil imports over the period 1994 to 2007. The paper examines the relationship between supply sources diversification and oil energy security risks, and provides an objective evaluation of different import adjustment strategies on South Africa's total crude oil import risks. The results show that a policy of having constant monthly imports from each supply region reduces the specific and systematic risks of the oil import portfolio by an average rate of 71% and 2.9% respectively. Significant reduction in specific risks of South Africa's oil imports is achieved if imports from risky regions (mainly the Middle East) can be diversified to relatively less risky regions of Europe and North America.
Condom use has increased significantly over the past decade among all adult age groups in South Africa, and it is widely believed to have played a major role in the recent significant decline in HIV ...incidence in the country, especially among young people. This study investigated the demographic, behavioural and psychosocial correlates of condom use at last sex among a national random probability sample of sexually experienced respondents aged 15 years and older (n = 7817, 42.9% males and 57.1% females) using data from the 2008 South African national HIV population-based household survey. Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that for both sexes, being aged 15-24 years and 25-49 years old, Black African, never married and unemployed were significantly associated with condom use at last sex. In addition, for males, condom use was associated with having had two or more sexual partners, whereas for females it was associated with living in urban formal, urban informal and rural informal areas, and having been in a current relationship for less than a year. Based on these findings, it was concluded that there is a need to further promote condom use especially among the subgroups of people with lower rates of condom use in order to reduce their risk of HIV infection.
e availability of secure energy resources at sustainable quantities and affordable prices is fundamental to South Africa’s current objective of enhancing and sustaining its current growth ...trajectory. Economic reforms, since the early 1990s, have led to the economy growing at an average rate of almost 5% per annum. A major consequence of this strong growth is the rapid increase in domestic demand for oil energy. With small amounts of proven oil reserves, the rise in oil demand as an essential energy source has prompted an increasing reliance on external sources for domestic crude oil supplies. High oil prices, the extent of proven oil reserves, instability in major oil producing regions and the rise in ‘oil-nationalism’ have raised serious concerns about the security of South Africa’s oil supplies. In this context, a comprehensive understanding of oil import security risks is critical as it will guide in the formulation of energy policy framework aimed at alleviating the impact of oil import risks. This study utilises portfolio theory to provide quantitative measures of systematic and specific risks of South Africa’s crude oil imports over the period 1994 to 2007. It explains the relationship between supply sources diversification and oil energy security risks, and highlights the impact of different crude oil import policy adjustment strategies on the total crude oil import risk for South Africa. The results for the adjustment strategies show that: (a) a policy of having the same quantity of oil imported every month or a constant quantity of oil imported from the supply regions reduces both systematic and specific risks of oil import portfolio, and (b) a reduction in specific risks of South Africa’s oil imports can be achieved if some of the Middle Eastern supplies can be diversified to less risk regions of Europe, North America and Russia.
