Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global ...weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.
Context. This commentary is based on an innovative approach to the development of predictive analytics. It is centered on the development of predictive models for varying stages of chronic disease ...through integrating all types of datasets, adds various new features to a theoretically driven data warehousing, creates purpose-specific prediction models, and integrates multi-criteria predictions of chronic disease progression based on a biomedical evolutionary learning platform. After merging across-center databases based on the risk factors identified from modeling the predictors of chronic disease progression, the collaborative investigators could conduct multi-center verification of the predictive model and further develop a clinical decision support system coupled with visualization of a shared decision-making feature for patient care. The Study Problem. The success of health services management research is dependent upon the stability of pattern detection and the usefulness of nosological classification formulated from big-data-to-knowledge research on chronic conditions. However, longitudinal observations with multiple waves of predictors and outcomes are needed to capture the evolution of polychronic conditions. Motivation. The transitional probabilities could be estimated from big-data analysis with further verification. Simulation or predictive models could then generate a useful explanatory pathogenesis of the end-stage-disorder or outcomes. Hence, the clinical decision support system for patient-centered interventions could be systematically designed and executed. Methodology. A customized algorithm for polychronic conditions coupled with constraints-oriented reasoning approaches is suggested. Based on theoretical specifications of causal inquiries, we could mitigate the effects of multiple confounding factors in conducting evaluation research on the determinants of patient care outcomes. This is what we consider as the mechanism for avoiding the black-box expression in the formulation of predictive analytics. The remaining task is to gather new data to verify the practical utility of the proposed and validated predictive equation(s). More specifically, this includes two approaches guiding future research on chronic disease and care management: (1) To develop a biomedical evolutionary learning platform to predict the risk of polychronic conditions at various stages, especially for predicting the micro- and macro-cardiovascular complications experienced by patients with Type 2 diabetes for multidisciplinary care; and (2) to formulate appropriate prescriptive intervention services, such as patient-centered care management interventions for a high-risk group of patients with polychronic conditions. Conclusions. The commentary has identified trends, challenges, and solutions in conducting innovative AI-based healthcare research that can improve understandings of disease-state transitions from diabetes to other chronic polychronic conditions. Hence, better predictive models could be further formulated to expand from inductive (problem solving) to deductive (theory based and hypothesis testing) inquiries in care management research.
Pollution of residual plastic film in arable lands is a severe problem in China. In this study, the status of residual film and influential factors were investigated using the methods of farm survey ...in combination with questionnaires and quadrat sampling at a large number of field sites in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. The results showed that the amount of film utilization increased largely and reached to 1.8×10~5 t in 2013. Similarly, the mulching area also substantially increased in recent decades, and reached to 2.7×10~5 ha in the same year. According to the current survey, 60.7% of the sites presented a greater mulch residue than the national film residue standard（75 kg ha~（–1））, and the maximum residual amount reached 502.2 kg ha~（–1） in Turpan, Xinjiang. The film thickness, the mulching time and the crop type all influenced mulch residue. The thickness of the film had significantly negative correlation with the amount of residual film（P0.05）, while the mulching years had significantly positive correlation with it（P0.05）. The total amount of residual film in Xinjiang was 3.43×105 t in 2011, which accounted for 15.3% of the cumulative dosage of mulching. Among all the crops, the cotton fields had the largest residual amount of mulch film（158.4 kg ha~（–1））, and also the largest contribution（2.6×10~5 tons） to the total amount of residual film in Xinjiang.
The factors associated with cognitive decline among older adults include physical activity and fruit and vegetable intake. However, the long-term effects of concomitant physical activity and fruit ...and vegetable intake are unknown. This 16-year longitudinal study explored the joint effect of mitigating cognitive decline in a cohort of older Taiwanese individuals. Five population-based surveys (Taiwan Longitudinal Survey on Aging 1999-2015) involving 4440 respondents over 53 years old in 1999 were conducted. Cognitive function was assessed using the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire (SPMSQ). The demographic, socioeconomic, health-related, behavioral, and disease status covariates were adjusted in the regression analysis. Trends in cognitive decline were observed over 16 years. The risk of cognitive decline decreased by 63% when high physical activity and high fruit and vegetable intake were combined (odds ratio 0.37; 95% confidence interval 0.23-0.59), indicating a potential combined effect of physical activity and fruit and vegetable intake on mitigating cognitive decline. These personal actions are safe, effective, and economical approaches to health promotion and disease prevention.
Objectives
To explore the impact of age on the association between body mass index (BMI) and all-cause mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).
Methods
A total of 1991 patients with AF ...(69 ± 13 years, 54.9% female) were divided into three age groups: < 65 years, 65-75 years, and > 75 years, and followed for one year. The primary outcome was defined as all-cause mortality, with secondary outcomes including thromboembolism and major bleeding. Cox regression models were utilized to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).
Results
Compared to patients aged < 65 years, elder groups had much lower BMI and more comorbidities other than a lower prevalence of valvular heart disease. During one-year follow-up, 277 (13.9%) patients died, 158 (7.9%) underwent thromboembolism events and 26 (1.3%) had major bleeding. Mortality and thromboembolism risk were both notably higher in patients with advanced age (all P values < 0.001). Using normal weight patients as reference, mortality risk was significantly lower in overweight (HR 0.548; 95% CI 0.404-0.744) and obese patients (HR 0.536; 95% CI 0.325-0.883) for the entire cohort, with reduced death risk mainly observed in overweight patients aged 65-75 years (HR 0.285; 95% CI 0.131-0.621) and aged > 75 years (HR 0.686; 95% CI 0.473-0.993), but not in patients aged < 65 years. Continuous analyses of BMI indicated consistent results.
Conclusion
High BMI is associated with reduced mortality rate in patients with AF, and this association is affected by age, with the so-called “obesity paradox” confined to those with advanced age rather than young patients.
Our previous study in 2011 reported the detection of BPA and PFAAs in 20 species of marine and freshwater fishes. With an emerging evidence to suggest the metabolic-disrupting effects of BPA/PFAAs in ...animals, the present study was aimed to provide a time-trend analysis to determine the current concentrations of PFAAs and BPA in 20 commercially available Hong Kong species of fishes. Since the manufacture and use of BPA is being prohibited in most nations, the introduction of BPA alternatives has recently been incorporated in the markets. Therefore, the concentrations of BPB, BPF and BPS were determined. In the present study, all freshwater and seawater fish samples showed quantified concentrations >Limit of Quantification (LOQ<0.5ng/g) of BPA. BPF was detected in some marine (yellow seafin, bigeye, goldspotted rabbitfish, snubnose pompano, tongue sole, Bleeker's grouper and orange-spotted grouper) and freshwater fishes (mud carp, crucian carp, tilapia, catfish, mandarin fish, grass carp, grey mullet and spotted snakehead). Two of the compounds, BPS and BPB could only be identified in the marine fishes (snubnose pompano, yellow seafin). In PFAA analysis, PFOA, PFDA, PFOS, PFUdA and PFDoA were found in most of the marine and freshwater fishes. PFOS and PFOA were shown to be the two predominant PFAAs in fishes. On the basis of the measured concentrations of bisphenols, BPs (BPA, BPB, BPF, BPS) and PFAAs, the average daily intake for BPs (20.5–31.5ng/kgb.w./day) and PFAAs (1.17–1.83ng/kgb.w./day) were calculated and found to be lower than values of tolerable daily intake (TDI) established in Europe. However, as compared with our previous study in 2011, the present study revealed an approximate 10-fold increase in the concentrations of BPA in the fish samples. Although the hazard ratio of consuming fishes for BPA and PFAA exposure is expected to remain low, possible additive metabolic-disrupting effect of BPA and its analogues as well PFAAs should be taken into consideration for human health risk assessment.
•Bisphenol A and its analogues, perfluorinated compounds in twenty species of freshwater and marine fishes•The first report indicates the presence of BPA analogues, BPB, BPF and BPS in market fishes.•A time-trend analysis revealed BPA contamination were 10-fold greater than the similar study in 2011.
Abstract
Changes in day-to-day (daily) temperature variability have implications for the health of humans and other species and industries such as agriculture. The strongest historical changes in ...daily temperature variability are decreases in the northern high latitudes annually and in all seasons except summer. Additionally, daily temperature variability has increased in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during summer and over tropical and Southern Hemisphere land areas. These patterns are projected to continue with additional warming. We conduct a formal detection and attribution analysis, finding the global spatio-temporal changes in daily temperature standard deviation annually and for all seasons except boreal summer are attributable to anthropogenic forcing. Human influence is also detected in some individual 20-degree latitude bands, including the northern high latitudes. Attribution results are generally robust to different methodological choices and this provides confidence in projected changes in daily temperature variability with continued anthropogenic warming.
Mindfulness has emerged as an important correlate of well-being in various clinical populations. The present study evaluated the psychometric properties of the 20-item short form of the Five Facet ...Mindfulness Questionnaire (FFMQ-SF) in the Chinese context.
The study sample was 127 Chinese colorectal cancer patients who completed the FFMQ-SF and validated physical and mental health measures. Factorial validity of the FFMQ-SF was assessed using Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) via informative priors on cross-loadings and residual covariances. Linear regression analysis examined its convergent validity with the health measures on imputed datasets.
The five-factor BSEM model with approximate zero cross-loadings and one residual covariance provided an adequate model fit (PPP = 0.07, RMSEA = 0.06, CFI = 0.95). Satisfactory reliability (ω = 0.77-0.85) was found in four of the five facets (except nonjudging). Acting with awareness predicted lower levels of perceived stress, negative affect, anxiety, depression, and illness symptoms (β = - 0.37 to - 0.42) and better quality of life (β = 0.29-0.32). Observing, nonjudging, and nonreacting did not show any significant associations (p > .05) with health measures. Acting with awareness was not significantly correlated (r < 0.15) with the other four facets.
The present findings provide partial support for the psychometric properties of the FFMQ-SF in colorectal cancer patients. The nonjudging facet showed questionable validity and reliability in the present sample. Further studies with larger sample sizes are needed to elucidate the viability of FFMQ-SF as a measure of mindfulness facets in cancer patients.
Trends in Canada’s climate are analyzed using recently updated data to provide a comprehensive view of climate variability and long-term changes over the period of instrumental record. Trends in ...surface air temperature, precipitation, snowcover, and streamflow indices are examined along with the potential impact of low-frequency variability related to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic oscillations on these trends. The results show that temperature has increased significantly in most regions of Canada over the period 1948–2012, with the largest warming occurring in winter and spring. Precipitation has also increased, especially in the north. Changes in other climate and hydroclimatic variables, including a decrease in the amount of precipitation falling as snow in the south, fewer days with snow cover, an earlier start of the spring high-flow season, and an increase in April streamflow, are consistent with the observed warming and precipitation trends. For the period 1900–2012, there are sufficient temperature and precipitation data for trend analysis for southern Canada (south of 60°N) only. During this period, temperature has increased significantly across the region, precipitation has increased, and the amount of precipitation falling as snow has decreased in many areas south of 55°N. The results also show that modes of low-frequency variability modulate the spatial distribution and strength of the trends; however, they alone cannot explain the observed long-term trends in these climate variables.
Summary
Activated calcium‐/calmodulin‐dependent protein kinaseII (CaMKII) is important to promote chondrocytes from proliferative to pre‐hypertrophic state, which probably plays a role in ...osteoarthritis (OA), a widespread degeneration disease with enhanced aberrant chondrocyte differentiation. Our aim was to detect the role of CaMKII, and its relationship with the feedback loop of Indian hedgehog (Ihh) and Parathyroid‐related peptide (PTHrP) in the temporomandibular joints (TMJs) OA. KN93, the competitive inhibitor of CaMKII, was added to the culture medium in vitro and was locally injected to rats TMJs (n = 54, female) every other day for 4 weeks from the beginning of the 5th and 9th week after installing of unilateral anterior crossbite (UAC), termed as 4 wk+4 wk and 8 wk+4 wk, accordingly. The RNA expression of CaMKII α (1.49 ± 0.09), CaMKII β (3.36 ± 0.20), Ihh (1.88 ± 0.06) and PTHrP (1.87 ± 0.12) was all enhanced, especially at 24 dyn/cm2 in vitro (all P < .05), accompanied with downregulated expression of cartilage matrix, but upregulated markers of chondrocytes differentiation (all P < 0.05). Similarity was observed in the 4 wk+4 wk group in vivo. In the 8 wk+4 wk group, UAC upregulated the RNA expression of CaMKII α (1.81 ± 0.24), CaMKII β (1.36 ± 0.07) and Ihh (1.70 ± 0.21), however, down‐regulated PTHrP (0.53 ± 0.04) (all P < .05), in consonance with the protein expression. All these changes were attenuated by KN93 (all P < .05). In conclusion, CaMKII took a role, via Ihh and PTHrP pathways, in promoting biomechanically induced TMJ chondrocytes differentiation, the initiation issue of UAC stimulated osteoarthritic changes in rodent TMJs. Inhibiting CaMKII is helpful to rescue the biomechanically stimulated cartilage degradation and prospective to be a target treatment of OA.
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