Because the DTB time Core Measure is neither risk-adjusted nor stratified by a history of previous CABG surgery, it is possible that hospitals treating an above-average proportion of patients with ...previous CABG surgery would report inherently poorer performance. ...patients with previous CABG surgery had significantly lower post-procedure peak troponin and creatine kinase-MB values compared with patients without previous CABG surgery.
Summary Background Ankylosing spondylitis is a chronic immune-mediated inflammatory disease characterised by spinal inflammation, progressive spinal rigidity, and peripheral arthritis. Interleukin 17 ...(IL-17) is thought to be a key inflammatory cytokine in the development of ankylosing spondylitis, the prototypical form of spondyloarthritis. We assessed the efficacy and safety of the anti-IL-17A monoclonal antibody secukinumab in treating patients with active ankylosing spondylitis. Methods We did a randomised double-blind proof-of-concept study at eight centres in Europe (four in Germany, two in the Netherlands, and two in the UK). Patients aged 18–65 years were randomly assigned (in a 4:1 ratio) to either intravenous secukinumab (2×10 mg/kg) or placebo, given 3 weeks apart. Randomisation was done with a computer-generated block randomisation list without a stratification process. The primary efficacy endpoint was the percentage of patients with a 20% response according to the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society criteria for improvement (ASAS20) at week 6 (Bayesian analysis). Safety was assessed up to week 28. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT00809159. Findings 37 patients with moderate-to-severe ankylosing spondylitis were screened, and 30 were randomly assigned to receive either intravenous secukinumab (n=24) or placebo (n=6). The final efficacy analysis included 23 patients receiving secukinumab and six patients receiving placebo, and the safety analysis included all 30 patients. At week 6, ASAS20 response estimates were 59% on secukinumab versus 24% on placebo (99·8% probability that secukinumab is superior to placebo). One serious adverse event (subcutaneous abscess caused by Staphylococcus aureus ) occurred in the secukinumab-treated group. Interpretation Secukinumab rapidly reduced clinical or biological signs of active ankylosing spondylitis and was well tolerated. It is the first targeted therapy that we know of that is an alternative to tumour necrosis factor inhibition to reach its primary endpoint in a phase 2 trial. Funding Novartis.
Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a difficult-to-treat biliary malignancy with significant morbidity and mortality due to its typically late symptomatic presentation. Though curative surgical options do ...exist, most patients with perihilar CCA are deemed unresectable at the time of diagnosis. Furthermore, the efficacy of chemoradiation for tumor control is limited. However, advances in endoscopic technology and techniques have enabled improved symptom palliation via internal biliary decompression, which is associated with improved quality of life. The introduction of intraductal, radioactive brachytherapy (ILBT) for management of unresectable CCA has resulted in prolonged biliary stent patency and the ability to provide local tumor control. ERCP-directed photodynamic therapy (PDT) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for the palliative treatment of patients with unresectable CCA have recently been added to the armamentarium of the biliary endoscopist. Patients now have these non-radioactive, minimally-invasive endoscopic treatment options at their disposal, which can help to reduce the rate of biliary infections and might also offer survival benefit. Moreover, ERCP-directed PDT has been used in lieu of ILBT for locoregional tumor control in patients with unresectable perihilar CCA who are awaiting LT. Despite the studies supporting the use of endobiliary PDT and RFA, the optimal timing, treatment locations (in bilateral disease), and frequency for these ablative therapies have yet to be established. While endobiliary PDT and RFA both have their respective advantages and disadvantages, attention to patient education and providing detailed informed consent remains paramount to their proper use. This is a point of emphasis given the ongoing technological maturation of these endoscopically-delivered ablative therapies and the evolving ways in which they are utilized.
Chest x-ray is a relatively accessible, inexpensive, fast imaging modality that might be valuable in the prognostication of patients with COVID-19. We aimed to develop and evaluate an artificial ...intelligence system using chest x-rays and clinical data to predict disease severity and progression in patients with COVID-19.
We did a retrospective study in multiple hospitals in the University of Pennsylvania Health System in Philadelphia, PA, USA, and Brown University affiliated hospitals in Providence, RI, USA. Patients who presented to a hospital in the University of Pennsylvania Health System via the emergency department, with a diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed by RT-PCR and with an available chest x-ray from their initial presentation or admission, were retrospectively identified and randomly divided into training, validation, and test sets (7:1:2). Using the chest x-rays as input to an EfficientNet deep neural network and clinical data, models were trained to predict the binary outcome of disease severity (ie, critical or non-critical). The deep-learning features extracted from the model and clinical data were used to build time-to-event models to predict the risk of disease progression. The models were externally tested on patients who presented to an independent multicentre institution, Brown University affiliated hospitals, and compared with severity scores provided by radiologists.
1834 patients who presented via the University of Pennsylvania Health System between March 9 and July 20, 2020, were identified and assigned to the model training (n=1285), validation (n=183), or testing (n=366) sets. 475 patients who presented via the Brown University affiliated hospitals between March 1 and July 18, 2020, were identified for external testing of the models. When chest x-rays were added to clinical data for severity prediction, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) increased from 0·821 (95% CI 0·796–0·828) to 0·846 (0·815–0·852; p<0·0001) on internal testing and 0·731 (0·712–0·738) to 0·792 (0·780–0 ·803; p<0·0001) on external testing. When deep-learning features were added to clinical data for progression prediction, the concordance index (C-index) increased from 0·769 (0·755–0·786) to 0·805 (0·800–0·820; p<0·0001) on internal testing and 0·707 (0·695–0·729) to 0·752 (0·739–0·764; p<0·0001) on external testing. The image and clinical data combined model had significantly better prognostic performance than combined severity scores and clinical data on internal testing (C-index 0·805 vs 0·781; p=0·0002) and external testing (C-index 0·752 vs 0·715; p<0·0001).
In patients with COVID-19, artificial intelligence based on chest x-rays had better prognostic performance than clinical data or radiologist-derived severity scores. Using artificial intelligence, chest x-rays can augment clinical data in predicting the risk of progression to critical illness in patients with COVID-19.
Brown University, Amazon Web Services Diagnostic Development Initiative, Radiological Society of North America, National Cancer Institute and National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering of the National Institutes of Health.
Abstract Background context Low back pain and disability are major public health problems and may be related to paraspinal muscle abnormalities, such as a reduction in muscle size and muscle fat ...content. Purpose The aim of this study was to examine the associations between paraspinal muscle size and fat content with lumbar spine symptoms and structure. Study design/setting This was a community-based magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) cohort study. Patient sample A total of 72 adults not selected on the basis of low back pain were included in the study. Outcome measures The outcomes measured were lumbar modic change and intervertebral disc height. Pain intensity and disability were measured from the Chronic Pain Grade Questionnaire at the time of MRI. Methods The cross-sectional area (CSA) and amount of fat in multifidus and erector spinae (high percentage defined by >50% of muscle) were measured, and their association with outcome was assessed. Results Muscle CSA was not associated with low back pain/disability or structure. High percentage of fat in multifidus was associated with an increased risk of high-intensity pain/disability (odds ratio OR, 12.6; 95% confidence interval CI, 2.0–78.3; p=.007) and modic change (OR, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.1–17.3; p=.04). High fat replacement of erector spinae was associated with reduced intervertebral disc height (β=−0.9 mm; 95% CI, −1.4 to −0.3; p=.002) and modic change (OR, 4.9; 95% CI, 1.1–21.9; p=.04). Conclusions Paraspinal fat infiltration, but not muscle CSA, was associated with high-intensity pain/disability and structural abnormalities in the lumbar spine. Although cause and effect cannot be determined from this cross-sectional study, longitudinal data will help to determine whether disabling low back pain and structural abnormalities of the spine are a cause or result of fat replacement of paraspinal muscles.
Summary Background The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global ...Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. Methods To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010–13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. Findings Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. Interpretation Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. Incidence rates for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Particle‐based pulmonary delivery has great potential for delivering inhalable therapeutics for local or systemic applications. The design of particles with enhanced aerodynamic properties can ...improve lung distribution and deposition, and hence the efficacy of encapsulated inhaled drugs. This study describes the nanoengineering and nebulization of metal–phenolic capsules as pulmonary carriers of small molecule drugs and macromolecular drugs in lung cell lines, a human lung model, and mice. Tuning the aerodynamic diameter by increasing the capsule shell thickness (from ≈100 to 200 nm in increments of ≈50 nm) through repeated film deposition on a sacrificial template allows precise control of capsule deposition in a human lung model, corresponding to a shift from the alveolar region to the bronchi as aerodynamic diameter increases. The capsules are biocompatible and biodegradable, as assessed following intratracheal administration in mice, showing >85% of the capsules in the lung after 20 h, but <4% remaining after 30 days without causing lung inflammation or toxicity. Single‐cell analysis from lung digests using mass cytometry shows association primarily with alveolar macrophages, with >90% of capsules remaining nonassociated with cells. The amenability to nebulization, capacity for loading, tunable aerodynamic properties, high biocompatibility, and biodegradability make these capsules attractive for controlled pulmonary delivery.
The aerodynamic diameters of metal–phenolic capsules are nanoengineered by increasing their shell thickness, which facilitates tailored capsule deposition in a mechanical lung model. The engineered capsules are promising for pulmonary delivery owing to their robustness for nebulization, biocompatibility, biodegradability, and their capacity for cargo loading and surface functionalization.
Summary Background Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of ...Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. Methods We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45–54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17–28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted. Interpretation Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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