•We estimate a smooth ambiguity preference function for an ambiguous policy.•A climate change mitigation policy is considered as the policy example.•Most people have ambiguity-seeking attitudes, ...which are heterogenous across people.•WTP for mitigation policies is underestimated without considering ambiguity.•Ambiguity information may increase public support for mitigation policies.
We estimate a smooth ambiguity preference function, wherein an individual faces multiple probability predictions of policy outcomes, and then empirically measure their willingness-to-pay for the policy, ambiguity attitude, and ambiguity premium. Climate change mitigation policy is used as the example. The estimation results reveal that most people have ambiguity-seeking attitudes, but that these attitudes are heterogeneous across individuals. People who are older, are university graduates, have higher income, or trust more in science show stronger ambiguity-seeking attitudes. Their willingness-to-pay can be underestimated if ambiguity is not considered. Moreover, individuals with stronger ambiguity-seeking attitudes support aggressive mitigation policies more strongly. Our estimation strategy is generally applicable to policy evaluations wherein policy outcomes are ambiguous.
Fiscally constrained governments prefer imposing tariffs instead of providing subsidies, despite tariffs distorting markets more than subsidies. Japan’s price adjustment program is designed to ...support the domestic sugar industry by imposing a tariff on imports and by subsidizing domestic production using tariff revenues. This study compared the program and a subsidy scheme using benefit/cost ratios and the degree of trade distortion. The main findings and their policy implications are as follows: 1) because the benefit/cost ratio for the program is greater than one, the program would be beneficial for Japanese people, 2) the ratios and trade distortions for the two policies are similar, thus the program works well when fiscal spending is constrained, as it requires less government spending, 3) using tariffs instead of the other two policies results in a smaller benefit/cost ratio and greater market distortion, 4) people are uncertain about their preference for the program, making them more accepting of it.
•We compare performance of sugar price adjustment program with a subsidy scheme.•The program combines a tariff on imports with a subsidy using the tariff revenue.•The benefit/cost ratios and trade distortions for the two policies are similar.•Using tariffs instead of them results in smaller benefit/cost and greater distortion.•People’s preference uncertainty for the program makes the program more acceptable.
Endoscopic treatment for chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) has been reported, but endoscopic findings of CSDH have not been thoroughly investigated. This study aimed to elucidate the relationship ...between endoscopic findings and CSDH recurrence. Furthermore, it examined the association between Nagahori’s histopathological staging of CSDH and outer membrane color. Here, we retrospectively analyzed the operative videos of 70 patients with CSDH. The endoscopic findings were investigated, and their correlations with CSDH recurrence, the reduction ratio of the midline shift, and hematoma thickness on day 30 after the operation were analyzed. The outer membrane was white in 21 cases, yellow in 25 cases, and red in 24 cases. CSDH recurred in three (4.2%) patients, all of whom had a white outer membrane (adjusted odds ratio, 18; 95% confidence interval, 1.6–20.6; P = 0.007). The other endoscopic findings were not significantly related to CSDH recurrence, extent of the reduction ratio of the midline shift, or hematoma thickness. The outer membrane colors of white, red, yellow, and white almost corresponded to the histopathological staging from type I to IV in order. Our findings suggest that a white outer membrane is a risk factor for recurrence; these colors may represent the extent of inflammation related to the evolution of CSDH estimated from the histopathological findings.
The drilling characteristics of alumina ceramics during through-hole drilling with a diamond-coated carbide drill were investigated experimentally. The drilling characteristics were evaluated by ...cutting edge behavior, cutting force (thrust force and torque), and chipping state at the exit side of the drilled hole in relation to the number of drilled holes. Additionally, the effects of the diamond-coating thickness and drill feed rate were investigated. The drills had a typical twist shape and were made of tungsten carbide base material with diamond coatings at 10 μm and 20 μm thick. The drilling machine was a standard machining center with a simple unidirectional drill feed without vibration. In through-hole drilling, as in blind-hole drilling, the coating on the rake face flaked during the initial stage of drilling, resulting in a sharp cutting edge on the diamond-coating ridge remaining on the flank face. However, flaking of the diamond coating on the rake face was observed earlier during through-hole drilling than in blind-hole drilling. Although the chipping area increased with increasing drill feed rate, coating flaking on the rake face significantly suppressed it at all feed rates. There was a clear correlation between the chipping area and cutting force since the chipping area decreased with decreasing thrust force. Before the theoretical hole penetration, hat-shaped chipping was observed with two crack propagation directions, accompanied by a sharp decrease in thrust force. Moreover, even after observing a sharp decrease in thrust force, a gradual decrease in thrust force was observed in the case of a good chipping state. The chipping area was significantly improved by reducing the coating thickness, and the thrust force was reduced.
Purpose This study aimed to identify kinematic gait indicators for a fall risk screening test through quantitative comparisons of gait characteristics measured using mobile inertial sensors between ...faller and non-faller groups in a population of community-dwelling older people. Participants and Methods We enrolled 50 people aged ≥65 years who used long-term care prevention services, interviewed them to determine their fall history during the past year, and divided them into faller and non-faller groups. Gait parameters (velocity, cadence, stride length, foot height, heel strike angle, ankle joint angle, knee joint angle, and hip joint angle) were assessed using the mobile inertial sensors. Results Gait velocity and left and right heel strike angles were significantly lower and smaller, respectively, in the faller versus non-faller group. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed areas under the curve of 0.686, 0.722, and 0.691 for gait velocity, left heel strike angle, and right heel strike angle, respectively. Conclusion Gait velocity and heel strike angle during gait assessed using mobile inertial sensors may be important kinematic indicators in a fall risk screening test to estimate the likelihood of falls among community-dwelling older people.
Scientific uncertainties in climate change projections are generally addressed using an ensemble method, in which multiple models are used to generate climate projections. In the interest of ...transparent and honesty, such uncertainty should be communicated to the general public. Thus, it is important to investigate how such uncertainty should be communicated to the general public. This study explored three uncertainty representation formats—average, range, and multi-value—to investigate how each format affected the general public’s trust, perceived accuracy, perceived likelihood, and concern after acknowledging the presence of uncertainty in climate projections (i.e., the use of multi-model climate projections). We conducted a web survey of 2400 participants in Japan, in which we randomly assigned each participant to one of three formats by which climate projection uncertainty was presented. We then asked participants to rate trust, perceived accuracy, perceived likelihood, and concern regarding the climate projections. The multi-value format enhanced trust and perceived accuracy and partially increased perceived likelihood and concern regarding the climate projections compared to the average and range formats, regardless of participants’ numeracy and education level. This study suggests that the multi-value format might be effective for communicating multi-model projections and promoting public trust and support for climate polices.
Objective: Subarachnoid hemorrhage due to ruptured vertebral artery dissecting aneurysm (rVADA) is associated with a high frequency of acute rebleeding and requires early treatment following onset. ...Parent artery occlusion (PAO) or stent-assisted coiling (SAC) embolization is selected as a treatment option according to the individual patient condition. This report is a retrospective examination evaluating the treatment outcomes for rVADA.Methods: The subjects were 20 rVADA patients (16 men and 4 women) who underwent endovascular treatment at our institution. The mean patient age was 52.9 years. Ten patients each were allocated to the PAO group and SAC group. We evaluated and compared the following parameters: presence of hemorrhagic complications, presence of ischemic complications, requirement of retreatment, and Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) after 90 days.Results: The reasons for selecting SAC were contralateral occlusion or a small diameter in three patients, the posterior inferior cerebellar artery (PICA) involvement in three patients, perforating artery from dissected lesion in five patients, and anterior spinal artery in one patient. There was no rebleeding in any patient. Symptomatic ischemic complications were observed in four patients in the PAO group and in one in the SAC group. Hyper-intense lesions in the brainstem on MRI DWI were noted in five patients in PAO group and in one in the SAC group. Retreatment was required for three patients in the PAO group and for four in the SAC group. Favorable outcomes (GOS 4, 5) after 90 days were observed for three patients in the PAO group and for eight patients in the SAC group (p = 0.0257).Conclusion: SAC that can preserve branches is a useful treatment option for rVADA. Further studies on a greater number of subjects are required to establish the optimal dose of antiplatelet agents and anticoagulants, and for stent selection.
Toxoplasmosis is a rare and possibly underestimated complication following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) associated with a high mortality rate, although the incidence of ...toxoplasmosis after HSCT in Japan has not been established. We retrospectively studied patients with toxoplasmosis after HSCT, and identified five patients who had been diagnosed with an acute exacerbation of toxoplasmosis among 279 HSCT recipients at our institution between 1998 and 2011, representing an incidence of 1.8 %. Among 87 autologous HSCT recipients, one definite case was diagnosed. The serological test for
Toxoplasma gondii
before HSCT was positive in 18 of 192 allogeneic HSCT recipients. Of the 18 seropositive patients, three had definite infections, and one had possible infection. All four definite cases were diagnosed at autopsy. In the definite cases, three allogeneic HSCT recipients had disseminated or pulmonary toxoplasmosis and one autologous HSCT recipient had toxoplasmic encephalitis, although toxoplasmosis was not suspected at the premortem examination due to non-specific clinical and radiological manifestations. Thus, acute exacerbation of toxoplasmosis should be suspected in recipients after HSCT. Early diagnosis and treatment for toxoplasmosis would certainly contribute to a decrease in mortality after HSCT.
Pandemic 2009 influenza A virus (A/H1N1/2009) has emerged globally. In this study, we performed a comprehensive detection of potential pathogens by de novo sequencing using a next-generation DNA ...sequencer on total RNAs extracted from an autopsy lung of a patient who died of viral pneumonia with A/H1N1/2009. Among a total of 9.4x10(6) 40-mer short reads, more than 98% appeared to be human, while 0.85% were identified as A/H1N1/2009 (A/Nagano/RC1-L/2009(H1N1)). Suspected bacterial reads such as Streptococcus pneumoniae and other oral bacteria flora were very low at 0.005%, and a significant bacterial infection was not histologically observed. De novo assembly and read mapping analysis of A/Nagano/RC1-L/2009(H1N1) showed more than x200 coverage on average, and revealed nucleotide heterogeneity on hemagglutinin as quasispecies, specifically at two amino acids (Gly(172)Glu and Gly(239)Asn of HA) located on the Sa and Ca2 antigenic sites, respectively. Gly239 and Asn239 on antigenic site Ca2 appeared to be minor amino acids compared with the highly distributed Asp239 in H1N1 HAs. This study demonstrated that de novo sequencing can comprehensively detect pathogens, and such in-depth investigation facilitates the identification of influenza A viral heterogeneity. To better characterize the A/H1N1/2009 virus, unbiased comprehensive techniques will be indispensable for the primary investigations of emerging infectious diseases.
This article develops a valuation model to evaluate mortality probability changes under objective ambiguity, where multiple mortality probabilities are exogenously given. We construct the valuation ...model based on
α
-maxmin expected utility to evaluate the reduction in ambiguity size and risk level as well as estimate the subjects’ ambiguity attitude. Our model can bring an interesting policy implication. If the subjects are ambiguity-averse, a reduction in ambiguity size with a constant risk level can increases welfare. Thus, even if risk level cannot be lowered, reduction in ambiguity size can also be used as a measure toward increasing welfare. Our model can empirically estimate this welfare change resulting from the reduction in ambiguity size. To demonstrate how our model works, we apply it to survey data on a public program that reduces mortality probability in accidents caused by wildlife.
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