Abstract
Aims
We investigated the relationship between clinically assessed left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and survival in a large, heterogeneous clinical cohort.
Methods and results
...Physician-reported LVEF on 403 977 echocardiograms from 203 135 patients were linked to all-cause mortality using electronic health records (1998–2018) from US regional healthcare system. Cox proportional hazards regression was used for analyses while adjusting for many patient characteristics including age, sex, and relevant comorbidities. A dataset including 45 531 echocardiograms and 35 976 patients from New Zealand was used to provide independent validation of analyses. During follow-up of the US cohort, 46 258 (23%) patients who had undergone 108 578 (27%) echocardiograms died. Overall, adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for mortality showed a u-shaped relationship for LVEF with a nadir of risk at an LVEF of 60–65%, a HR of 1.71 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.64–1.77 when ≥70% and a HR of 1.73 (95% CI 1.66–1.80) at LVEF of 35–40%. Similar relationships with a nadir at 60–65% were observed in the validation dataset as well as for each age group and both sexes. The results were similar after further adjustments for conditions associated with an elevated LVEF, including mitral regurgitation, increased wall thickness, and anaemia and when restricted to patients reported to have heart failure at the time of the echocardiogram.
Conclusion
Deviation of LVEF from 60% to 65% is associated with poorer survival regardless of age, sex, or other relevant comorbidities such as heart failure. These results may herald the recognition of a new phenotype characterized by supra-normal LVEF.
The goal of this study was to use machine learning to more accurately predict survival after echocardiography.
Predicting patient outcomes (e.g., survival) following echocardiography is primarily ...based on ejection fraction (EF) and comorbidities. However, there may be significant predictive information within additional echocardiography-derived measurements combined with clinical electronic health record data.
Mortality was studied in 171,510 unselected patients who underwent 331,317 echocardiograms in a large regional health system. The authors investigated the predictive performance of nonlinear machine learning models compared with that of linear logistic regression models using 3 different inputs: 1) clinical variables, including 90 cardiovascular-relevant International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, codes, and age, sex, height, weight, heart rate, blood pressures, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein, and smoking; 2) clinical variables plus physician-reported EF; and 3) clinical variables and EF, plus 57 additional echocardiographic measurements. Missing data were imputed with a multivariate imputation by using a chained equations algorithm (MICE). The authors compared models versus each other and baseline clinical scoring systems by using a mean area under the curve (AUC) over 10 cross-validation folds and across 10 survival durations (6 to 60 months).
Machine learning models achieved significantly higher prediction accuracy (all AUC >0.82) over common clinical risk scores (AUC = 0.61 to 0.79), with the nonlinear random forest models outperforming logistic regression (p < 0.01). The random forest model including all echocardiographic measurements yielded the highest prediction accuracy (p < 0.01 across all models and survival durations). Only 10 variables were needed to achieve 96% of the maximum prediction accuracy, with 6 of these variables being derived from echocardiography. Tricuspid regurgitation velocity was more predictive of survival than LVEF. In a subset of studies with complete data for the top 10 variables, multivariate imputation by chained equations yielded slightly reduced predictive accuracies (difference in AUC of 0.003) compared with the original data.
Machine learning can fully utilize large combinations of disparate input variables to predict survival after echocardiography with superior accuracy.
Children with obesity have hypertrophic cardiac remodeling. Hypertension is common in pediatric obesity, and may independently contribute to hypertrophy. We hypothesized that both the degree of ...obesity and ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) would independently associate with measures of hypertrophic cardiac remodeling in children.
Children, aged 8-17 years, prospectively underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) and ABP monitoring. Left ventricular (LV) mass indexed to height
(LVMI), myocardial thickness and end-diastolic volume were quantified from a 3D LV model reconstructed from cine balanced steady state free precession images. Categories of remodeling were determined based on cutoff values for LVMI and mass/volume. Principal component analysis was used to define a "hypertrophy score" to study the continuous relationship between concentric hypertrophy and ABP.
Seventy-two children were recruited, and 68 of those (37 healthy weight and 31 obese/overweight) completed both CMR and ABP monitoring. Obese/overweight children had increased LVMI (27 ± 4 vs 22 ± 3 g/m
, p < 0.001), myocardial thickness (5.6 ± 0.9 vs 4.9 ± 0.7 mm, p < 0.001), mass/volume (0.69 ± 0.1 vs 0.61 ± 0.06, p < 0.001), and hypertrophy score (1.1 ± 2.2 vs -0.96 ± 1.1, p < 0.001). Thirty-five percent of obese/overweight children had concentric hypertrophy. Ambulatory hypertension was observed in 26% of the obese/overweight children and none of the controls while masked hypertension was observed in 32% of the obese/overweight children and 16% of the controls. Univariate linear regression showed that BMI z-score, systolic BP (24 h, day and night), and systolic load correlated with LVMI, thickness, mass/volume and hypertrophy score, while 24 h and nighttime diastolic BP and load also correlated with thickness and mass/volume. Multivariate analysis showed body mass index z-score and systolic blood pressure were both independently associated with left ventricular mass index (β=0.54 p < 0.001 and 0.22 p = 0.03), thickness (β=0.34 p < 0.001 and 0.26 p = 0.001) and hypertrophy score (β=0.47 and 0.36, both p < 0.001).
In children, both the degree of obesity and ambulatory blood pressures are independently associated with measures of cardiac hypertrophic remodeling, however the correlations were generally stronger for the degree of obesity. This suggests that interventions targeted at weight loss or obesity-associated co-morbidities including hypertension may be effective in reversing or preventing cardiac remodeling in obese children.
Patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) have progressive, adverse biventricular remodeling, leading to abnormal contractile mechanics. Defining the mechanisms underlying this dysfunction, ...such as diffuse myocardial fibrosis, may provide insights into poor long-term outcomes. We hypothesized that left ventricular (LV) diffuse fibrosis is related to impaired LV mechanics.
Patients with TOF were evaluated with cardiac magnetic resonance in which modified Look-Locker (MOLLI) T1-mapping and spiral cine Displacement encoding (DENSE) sequences were acquired at three LV short-axis positions. Linear mixed modeling was used to define the association between regional LV mechanics from DENSE based on regional T1-derived diffuse fibrosis measures, such as extracellular volume fraction (ECV).
Forty patients (26 ± 11 years) were included. LV ECV was generally within normal range (0.24 ± 0.05). For LV mechanics, peak circumferential strains (-15 ± 3%) and dyssynchrony indices (16 ± 8 ms) were moderately impaired, while peak radial strains (29 ± 8%) were generally normal. After adjusting for patient age, sex, and regional LV differences, ECV was associated with log-adjusted LV dyssynchrony index (β = 0.67) and peak LV radial strain (β = -0.36), but not LV circumferential strain. Moreover, post-contrast T1 was associated with log-adjusted LV diastolic circumferential strain rate (β = 0.37).
We observed several moderate associations between measures of fibrosis and impaired mechanics, particularly the LV dyssynchrony index and peak radial strain. Diffuse fibrosis may therefore be a causal factor in some ventricular dysfunction in TOF.
Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) feature tracking is increasingly used to quantify cardiac mechanics from cine CMR imaging, although validation against reference standard techniques has been ...limited. Furthermore, studies have suggested that commonly-derived metrics, such as peak global strain (reported in 63% of feature tracking studies), can be quantified using contours from just two frames - end-diastole (ED) and end-systole (ES) - without requiring tracking software. We hypothesized that mechanics derived from feature tracking would not agree with those derived from a reference standard (displacement-encoding with stimulated echoes (DENSE) imaging), and that peak strain from feature tracking would agree with that derived using simple processing of only ED and ES contours.
We retrospectively identified 88 participants with 186 pairs of DENSE and balanced steady state free precession (bSSFP) image slices acquired at the same locations across two institutions. Left ventricular (LV) strains, torsion, and dyssynchrony were quantified from both feature tracking (TomTec Imaging Systems, Circle Cardiovascular Imaging) and DENSE. Contour-based strains from bSSFP images were derived from ED and ES contours. Agreement was assessed with Bland-Altman analyses and coefficients of variation (CoV). All biases are reported in absolute percentage.
Comparison results were similar for both vendor packages (TomTec and Circle), and thus only TomTec Imaging System data are reported in the abstract for simplicity. Compared to DENSE, mid-ventricular circumferential strain (Ecc) from feature tracking had acceptable agreement (bias: - 0.4%, p = 0.36, CoV: 11%). However, feature tracking significantly overestimated the magnitude of Ecc at the base (bias: - 4.0% absolute, p < 0.001, CoV: 18%) and apex (bias: - 2.4% absolute, p = 0.01, CoV: 15%), underestimated torsion (bias: - 1.4 deg/cm, p < 0.001, CoV: 41%), and overestimated dyssynchrony (bias: 26 ms, p < 0.001, CoV: 76%). Longitudinal strain (Ell) had borderline-acceptable agreement (bias: - 0.2%, p = 0.77, CoV: 19%). Contour-based strains had excellent agreement with feature tracking (biases: - 1.3-0.2%, CoVs: 3-7%).
Compared to DENSE as a reference standard, feature tracking was inaccurate for quantification of apical and basal LV circumferential strains, longitudinal strain, torsion, and dyssynchrony. Feature tracking was only accurate for quantification of mid LV circumferential strain. Moreover, feature tracking is unnecessary for quantification of whole-slice strains (e.g. base, apex), since simplified processing of only ED and ES contours yields very similar results to those derived from feature tracking. Current feature tracking technology therefore has limited utility for quantification of cardiac mechanics.
Previous studies using regression analyses have failed to identify which patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (rTOF) are at risk for deterioration in ventricular size and function despite using ...common clinical and cardiac function parameters as well as cardiac mechanics (strain and dyssynchrony). This study used a machine learning pipeline to comprehensively investigate the predictive value of the baseline variables derived from cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging and provide models for identifying patients at risk for deterioration.
Longitudinal deterioration for 153 patients with rTOF was categorized as 'none', 'minor', or 'major' based on changes in ventricular size and ejection fraction between two CMR scans at least 6 months apart (median 2.7 years). Baseline variables were measured at the time of the first CMR. An exhaustive variable search with a support vector machine classifier and five-fold cross-validation was used to predict deterioration and identify the most useful variables. For predicting any deterioration (minor or major) vs. no deterioration, the mean area under the curve (AUC) was 0.82 ± 0.06. For predicting major deterioration vs. minor or no deterioration, the AUC was 0.77 ± 0.07. Baseline left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction, LV circumferential strain, and pulmonary regurgitation were most useful for achieving accurate predictions.
For the prediction of deterioration in patients with rTOF, a machine learning pipeline uncovered the utility of baseline variables that was previously lost to regression analyses. The predictive models may be useful for planning early interventions in patients with high risk.
Pediatric obesity is a growing public health problem, which is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and premature death. Left ventricular (LV) remodeling (increased myocardial ...mass and thickness) and contractile dysfunction (impaired longitudinal strain) have been documented in obese children, but little attention has been paid to the right ventricle (RV). We hypothesized that obese/overweight children would have evidence of RV remodeling and contractile dysfunction.
One hundred and three children, ages 8-18 years, were prospectively recruited and underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), including both standard cine imaging and displacement encoding with stimulated echoes (DENSE) imaging, which allowed for quantification of RV geometry and function/mechanics. RV free wall longitudinal strain was quantified from the end-systolic four-chamber DENSE image. Linear regression was used to quantify correlations of RV strain with LV strain and measurements of body composition (adjusted for sex and height). Analysis of variance was used to study the relationship between RV strain and LV remodeling types (concentric remodeling, eccentric/concentric hypertrophy).
The RV was sufficiently visualized with DENSE in 70 (68%) subjects, comprising 36 healthy weight (13.6 ± 2.7 years) and 34 (12.1 ± 2.9 years) obese/overweight children. Obese/overweight children had a 22% larger RV mass index (8.2 ± 0.9 vs 6.7 ± 1.1 g/m
, p < 0.001) compared to healthy controls. RV free wall longitudinal strain was impaired in obese/overweight children (-16 ± 4% vs -19 ± 5%, p = 0.02). Ten (14%) out of 70 children had LV concentric hypertrophy, and these children had the most impaired RV longitudinal strain compared to those with normal LV geometry (-13 ± 4% vs -19 ± 5%, p = 0.002). RV longitudinal strain was correlated with LV longitudinal strain (r = 0.34, p = 0.004), systolic blood pressure (r = 0.33, p = 0.006), as well as BMI z-score (r = 0.28, p = 0.02), waist (r = 0.31, p = 0.01), hip (r = 0.40, p = 0.004) and abdominal (r = 0.38, p = 0.002) circumference, height and sex adjusted.
Obese/overweight children have evidence of RV remodeling (increased RV mass) and RV contractile dysfunction (impaired free wall longitudinal strain). Moreover, RV longitudinal strain correlates with LV longitudinal strain, and children with LV concentric hypertrophy show the most impaired RV function. These results suggest there may be a common mechanism underlying both remodeling and dysfunction of the left and right ventricles in obese/overweight children.
Mechanics of the left ventricle (LV) are important indicators of cardiac function. The role of right ventricular (RV) mechanics is largely unknown due to the technical limitations of imaging its thin ...wall and complex geometry and motion. By combining 3D Displacement Encoding with Stimulated Echoes (DENSE) with a post-processing pipeline that includes a local coordinate system, it is possible to quantify RV strain, torsion, and synchrony. In this study, we sought to characterize RV mechanics in 50 healthy individuals and compare these values to their LV counterparts. For each cardiac frame, 3D displacements were fit to continuous and differentiable radial basis functions, allowing for the computation of the 3D Cartesian Lagrangian strain tensor at any myocardial point. The geometry of the RV was extracted via a surface fit to manually delineated endocardial contours. Throughout the RV, a local coordinate system was used to transform from a Cartesian strain tensor to a polar strain tensor. It was then possible to compute peak RV torsion as well as peak longitudinal and circumferential strain. A comparable analysis was performed for the LV. Dyssynchrony was computed from the standard deviation of regional activation times. Global circumferential strain was comparable between the RV and LV (−18.0% for both) while longitudinal strain was greater in the RV (−18.1% vs. −15.7%). RV torsion was comparable to LV torsion (6.2 vs. 7.1 degrees, respectively). Regional activation times indicated that the RV contracted later but more synchronously than the LV. 3D spiral cine DENSE combined with a post-processing pipeline that includes a local coordinate system can resolve both the complex geometry and 3D motion of the RV.
Obesity affects nearly one in five children and is associated with increased risk of premature death. Obesity-related heart disease contributes to premature death. We aimed to use cardiovascular ...magnetic resonance (CMR) to comprehensively characterize the changes in cardiac geometry and function in obese children.
Forty-one obese/overweight (age 12 ± 3 years, 56 % female) and 29 healthy weight children (age 14 ± 3 years, 41 % female) underwent CMR, including both standard cine imaging and displacement encoded imaging, for a complete assessment of left ventricular (LV) structure and function. After adjusting for age, LV mass index was 23 % greater (27 ± 4 g/m(2.7) vs 22 ± 3 g/m(2.7), p <0.001) and the LV myocardium was 10 % thicker (5.6 ± 0.8 mm vs 5.1 ± 0.8 mm, p <0.001) in the obese/overweight children. This evidence of cardiac remodeling was present in obese children as young as age 8. Twenty four percent of obese/overweight children had concentric hypertrophy, 59 % had normal geometry and 17 % had either eccentric hypertrophy or concentric remodeling. LV mass index, thickness, ejection fraction and peak longitudinal and circumferential strains all correlated with epicardial adipose tissue after adjusting for height and gender (all p <0.05). Peak longitudinal and circumferential strains showed a significant relationship with the type of LV remodeling, and were most impaired in children with concentric hypertrophy (p <0.001 and p = 0.003, respectively).
Obese children show evidence of significant cardiac remodeling and dysfunction, which begins as young as age 8. Obese children with concentric hypertrophy and impaired strain may represent a particularly high risk subgroup that demands further investigation.
Patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (rTOF) suffer from progressive ventricular dysfunction decades after their surgical repair. We hypothesized that measures of ventricular strain and ...dyssynchrony would predict deterioration of ventricular function in patients with rTOF.
A database search identified all patients at a single institution with rTOF who underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) at least twice, >6 months apart, without intervening surgical or catheter procedures. Seven primary predictors were derived from the first CMR using a custom feature tracking algorithm: left (LV), right (RV) and inter-ventricular dyssynchrony, LV and RV peak global circumferential strains, and LV and RV peak global longitudinal strains. Three outcomes were defined, whose changes were assessed over time: RV end-diastolic volume, and RV and LV ejection fraction. Multivariate linear mixed models were fit to investigate relationships of outcomes to predictors and ten potential baseline confounders.
One hundred fifty-three patients with rTOF (23 ± 14 years, 50 % male) were included. The mean follow-up duration between the first and last CMR was 2.9 ± 1.3 years. After adjustment for confounders, none of the 7 primary predictors were significantly associated with change over time in the 3 outcome variables. Only 1-17 % of the variability in the change over time in the outcome variables was explained by the baseline predictors and potential confounders.
In patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot, ventricular dyssynchrony and global strain derived from cine CMR were not significantly related to changes in ventricular size and function over time. The ability to predict deterioration in ventricular function in patients with rTOF using current methods is limited.
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