Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species' ability to track its ecological niche or to evolve a new one. Current methods that predict climate-driven species' ...range shifts use ecological modelling without eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here we present an eco-evolutionary forecasting framework that combines niche modelling with individual-based demographic and genetic simulations. Applying our approach to four endemic perennial plant species of the Austrian Alps, we show that accounting for eco-evolutionary dynamics when predicting species' responses to climate change is crucial. Perennial species persist in unsuitable habitats longer than predicted by niche modelling, causing delayed range losses; however, their evolutionary responses are constrained because long-lived adults produce increasingly maladapted offspring. Decreasing population size due to maladaptation occurs faster than the contraction of the species range, especially for the most abundant species. Monitoring of species' local abundance rather than their range may likely better inform on species' extinction risks under climate change.
Land-use has transformed ecosystems over three quarters of the terrestrial surface, with massive repercussions on biodiversity. Land-use intensity is known to contribute to the effects of land-use on ...biodiversity, but the magnitude of this contribution remains uncertain. Here, we use a modified countryside species-area model to compute a global account of the impending biodiversity loss caused by current land-use patterns, explicitly addressing the role of land-use intensity based on two sets of intensity indicators. We find that land-use entails the loss of ~15% of terrestrial vertebrate species from the average 5 × 5 arcmin-landscape outside remaining wilderness areas and ~14% of their average native area-of-habitat, with a risk of global extinction for 556 individual species. Given the large fraction of global land currently used under low land-use intensity, we find its contribution to biodiversity loss to be substantial (~25%). While both sets of intensity indicators yield similar global average results, we find regional differences between them and discuss data gaps. Our results support calls for improved sustainable intensification strategies and demand-side actions to reduce trade-offs between food security and biodiversity conservation.
The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most biodiverse areas in the world, harboring 25,000 plant species, of which 60% are endemic. Some of them have narrow distributions, such as
, which is only ...known from alpine screes on Mt. Parnassos in Greece. Its exact distribution in this mountain was, however, poorly known, and its phylogenetic origin was also unclear. We performed extensive field work in Mt. Parnassos and could register
only in five patches of limestone screes in the eastern part of this mountain range, emphasizing its very narrow distribution, which is likely limited by topography influencing water availability as indicated by environmental modeling. We also registered 31 accompanying species and thus characterized its habitat. Using nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer and plastid
and
sequences, we show that it belongs to
sect.
, despite not having connate raylet leaves typical for this section, and not to
sect.
as previously suggested. The relationships among the species of
sect.
are poorly resolved, suggesting their simultaneous divergence that dated to the late Pliocene, which coincided with the establishment of the Mediterranean climate. The relative genome size of
is in the range of that for the other members of
sect.
, suggesting that it is diploid. Finally, we performed multivariate morphological analyses to generate a comprehensive description of
. Based on its narrow distribution and the anticipated negative impact of global warming, we consider this species endangered. Our study demonstrates how microrelief can limit the distribution of plants in topographically heterogeneous mountain environments and likely plays an important, yet neglected, role in shaping the distribution patterns of plants in the Mediterranean Basin.
Mountain plant species shift their elevational ranges in response to climate change. However, to what degree these shifts lag behind current climate change, and to what extent delayed extinctions and ...colonizations contribute to these shifts, are under debate. Here, we calculate extinction debt and colonization credit of 135 species from the European Alps by comparing species distribution models with 1576 re-surveyed plots. We find extinction debt in 60% and colonization credit in 38% of the species, and at least one of the two in 93%. This suggests that the realized niche of very few of the 135 species fully tracks climate change. As expected, extinction debts occur below and colonization credits occur above the optimum elevation of species. Colonization credits are more frequent in warmth-demanding species from lower elevations with lower dispersal capability, and extinction debts are more frequent in cold-adapted species from the highest elevations. Local extinctions hence appear to be already pending for those species which have the least opportunity to escape climate warming.
Abstract
Considering local population dynamics and dispersal is crucial to project species' range adaptations in changing environments. Dynamic models including these processes are highly computer ...intensive, with consequent restrictions on spatial extent and/or resolution.
We present CATS, an open‐source, extensible modelling framework for simulating spatially and temporarily explicit population dynamics of plants. It can be used in conjunction with species distribution models, or via direct parametrisation of vital rates and allows for fine‐grained control over the demographic and dispersal processes' models.
The performance and flexibility of CATS is exemplified (i) by modelling the range shift of four plant species under three future climate scenarios across Europe at a spatial resolution of 100 m., and (ii) by exploring consequences of demographic compensation for range expansion on artificial landscapes.
The presented software attempts to leverage the availability of computational resources and lower the barrier of entry for large‐extent, fine‐resolution simulations of plant range shifts in changing environments.
Glacial refugia of alpine and subnival biota have been intensively studied in the European Alps but the fate of forests and their understory species in that area remains largely unclear. In order to ...fill this gap, we aimed at disentangling the spatiotemporal diversification of disjunctly distributed black hellebore
Helleborus niger
(Ranunculaceae). We applied a set of phylogeographic analyses based on restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) data and plastid DNA sequences to a range-wide sampling of populations. These analyses were supplemented with species distribution models generated for the present and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We used exploratory analyses to delimit genomically coherent groups and then employed demographic modeling to reconstruct the history of these groups. We uncovered a deep split between two major genetic groups with western and eastern distribution within the Southern Limestone Alps, likely reflecting divergent evolution since the mid-Pleistocene in two glacial refugia situated along the unglaciated southern margin of the Alps. Long-term presence in the Southern Limestone Alps is also supported by high numbers of private alleles, elevated levels of nucleotide diversity and the species’ modeled distribution at the LGM. The deep genetic divergence, however, is not reflected in leaf shape variation, suggesting that the morphological discrimination of genetically divergent entities within
H. niger
is questionable. At a shallower level, populations from the Northern Limestone Alps are differentiated from those in the Southern Limestone Alps in both RADseq and plastid DNA data sets, reflecting the North-South disjunction within the Eastern Alps. The underlying split was dated to ca. 0.1 mya, which is well before the LGM. In the same line, explicit tests of demographic models consistently rejected the hypothesis that the partial distribution area in the Northern Limestone Alps is the result of postglacial colonization. Taken together, our results strongly support that forest understory species such as
H. niger
have survived the LGM in refugia situated along the southern, but also along the northern or northeastern periphery of the Alps. Being a slow migrator, the species has likely survived repeated glacial-interglacial circles in distributional stasis while the composition of the tree canopy changed in the meanwhile.
The coypu (
Myocastor coypus
) is a semi-aquatic rodent native to South America which has become invasive in Europe and other parts of the world. Although recently listed as species of European Union ...concern in the EU Invasive Alien Species Regulation, an analysis of the current European occurrence and of its potential current and future distribution was missing yet. We collected 24,232 coypu records (corresponding to 25,534 grid cells at 5 × 5 km) between 1980 and 2018 from a range of sources and 28 European countries and analysed them spatiotemporally, categorising them into persistence levels. Using logistic regression, we constructed consensus predictions across all persistence levels to depict the potential current distribution of the coypu in Europe and its change under four different climate scenarios for 2041–2060. From all presence grid cells, 45.5% showed at least early signs of establishment (records temporally covering a minimum of one generation length, i.e. 5 years), whereas 9.8% were considered as containing established populations (i.e. three generation lengths of continuous coverage). The mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), mean diurnal temperature range (bio2) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) were the most important of the analysed predictors. In total, 42.9% of the study area are classified as suitable under current climatic conditions, of which 72.6% are to current knowledge yet unoccupied; therefore, we show that the coypu has, by far, not yet reached all potentially suitable regions in Europe. Those cover most of temperate Europe (Atlantic, Continental and Pannonian biogeographic region), as well as the coastal regions of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. A comparison of the suitable and occupied areas showed that none of the affected countries has reached saturation by now. Under climate change scenarios, suitable areas will slightly shift towards Northern regions, while a general decrease in suitability is predicted for Southern and Central Europe (overall decrease of suitable areas 2–8% depending on the scenario). Nevertheless, most regions that are currently suitable for coypus are likely to be so in the future. We highlight the need to further investigate upper temperature limits in order to properly interpret future climatic suitability for the coypu in Southern Europe. Based on our results, we identify regions that are most at risk for future invasions and provide management recommendations. We hope that this study will help to improve the allocation of efforts for future coypu research and contribute to harmonised management, which is essential to reduce negative impacts of the coypu and to prevent further spread in Europe.
Large branchiopods are one of the most iconic species groups in temporary pools. Due to their specific biology and massive habitat degradation, they are one of the most threatened freshwater species ...groups. In this study, we used a unique dataset on the distribution of large branchiopods on a national scale (Austria), data on the distribution of temporary pools, and environmental variables to model the potential distribution of seven large branchiopod species. For species distribution modeling, we used six predictors which were assumed to be potentially relevant for explaining large branchiopod distribution. We used three modeling techniques (Generalized Linear Models, General Boosted Models, Random Forests) for distribution modeling. While some predictors (e.g. mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation and the proportion of arable land at the temporary pool) were important for all target species, the importance of the other variables (size of the temporary pool, connectivity, flooding probability) was variable among species, and partly also between the three model techniques used. The resulting ensemble distribution maps, which are based on ensemble models of the above-mentioned modeling techniques, show the distribution of occurrence probabilities for the modeled species. These maps can serve as a baseline for future surveying regions that have been under-sampled so far. Furthermore, as these maps identify regions where large branchiopods likely do occur, conservation measures can be prioritized towards these regions. Finally, we discuss conservation measures which should improve land use by farmers to appropriately protect large branchiopods and their habitats, temporary pools.
Climate driven species’ range shifts may interfere with existing protected area (PA) networks, resulting in a mismatch between places where species are currently protected and places where they can ...thrive in the future. Here, we assess the climate-smartness of the Austrian PA network by focusing on endemic species’ climatic niches and their future representation within PAs. We calculated endemic species’ climatic niches and climate space available in PAs within their dispersal reach under current and future climates, with the latter represented by three climate change scenarios and three time-steps (2030, 2050, and 2080). Niches were derived from the area of occupancy of species and the extent of PAs, respectively, and calculated as bivariate density kernels on gradients of mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. We then computed climatic representation of species’ niches in PAs as the proportion of the species’ kernel covered by the PA kernel. We found that under both a medium (RCP 4.5) and severe (RCP 8.5) climate change scenario, representation of endemic species’ climatic niches by PAs will decrease to a sixth for animals and to a third for plants, on average, toward the end of the century. Twenty to thirty percent of Austrian endemic species will then have no representation of their climatic niches in PAs anymore. Species with larger geographical and wider elevational ranges will lose less climatic niche representation. The declining representation of climatic niches in PAs implies that, even if PAs may secure the persistence of a part of these endemics, only a small portion of intraspecific diversity of many species may be represented in PAs in the future. We discuss our findings in the context of the varied elevational gradients found in Austria and suggest that the most promising strategies for safeguarding endemic species’ evolutionary potential are to limit the magnitude of climate change and to reduce other pressures that additionally threaten their survival.
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