The Mediterranean region is highly vulnerable to climate change. Longer and more intense heatwaves and droughts are expected. The Gordes Dam in Turkey provides drinking water for Izmir city and ...irrigation water for a wide range of crops grown in the basin. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), this study examined the effects of projected climate change (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) on the simulated streamflow, nitrogen loads, and crop yields in the basin for the period of 2031–2060. A hierarchical approach to define the hydrological response units (HRUs) of SWAT and the Fast Automatic Calibration Tool (FACT) were used to reduce computational time and improve model performance. The simulations showed that the average annual discharge into the reservoir is projected to increase by between 0.7 m3/s and 4 m3/s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. The steep slopes and changes in precipitation in the study area may lead to higher simulated streamflow. In addition, the rising temperatures predicted in the projections could lead to earlier spring snowmelt. This could also lead to increased streamflow. Projected nitrogen loads increased by between 8.8 and 25.1 t/year. The results for agricultural production were more variable. While the yields of poppy, tobacco, winter barley, and winter wheat will increase to some extent because of climate change, the yields of maize, cucumbers, and potatoes are all predicted to be negatively affected. Non-continuous and limited data on water quality and crop yields lead to uncertainties, so that the accuracy of the model is affected by these limitations and inconsistencies. However, the results of this study provide a basis for developing sustainable water and land management practices at the catchment scale in response to climate change. The changes in water quality and quantity and the ecological balance resulting from changes in land use and management patterns for economic benefit could not be fully demonstrated in this study. To explore the most appropriate management strategies for sustainable crop production, the SWAT model developed in this study should be further used in a multi-criteria land use optimization analysis that considers not only crop yields but also water quantity and quality targets.
Regional assessments of soil organic carbon (SOC) trends and the carbon sequestration potential of alternative management practices (AMP) are highly relevant for developing climate change mitigation ...strategies for the agricultural sector. Such studies could benefit from simplified SOC modeling approaches on the scale of administrative units as this often corresponds to the level of policy-making and data availability. However, there is a risk of systematic errors in such scaling operations. To overcome this problem, we performed a scaling experiment where we simulated the SOC dynamics of the arable soils of the State of Saxony (Germany) across a series of scales using the CANDY Carbon Balance (CCB) model. Specifically, we developed model set-ups on four different administrative levels (NUTS1, NUTS2, NUTS3, and LAU) and evaluated the simulation results of the upscaled models against a 500 m grid-based reference model. Furthermore, we quantified the carbon sequestration potential of selected AMP scenarios (addressing field grass, cover crops, and conservation tillage) across all scales. The upscaled model set-ups adequately simulated the SOC trends of Saxon arable land compared to the grid-based reference simulation (scaling error: 0.8–3.8%), while providing significant benefits for model application, data availability and runtime. The carbon sequestration potential of the AMP scenarios (1.33 Mt C until 2050) was slightly overestimated (+0.07–0.09 Mt C) by the upscaled model set-ups. Regardless of the scale of model set-up, we showed that the use of aggregated statistical input data could lead to a systematic underestimation of SOC trends. LAU and NUTS3 levels were shown to be a suitable compromise for effectively quantifying SOC dynamics and allowed for an acceptable spatial prioritization of AMPs. Such simplified, scale-adapted assessments are valuable for cross-regional comparisons and for communication to and among decision-makers, and might provide a quantitative basis for discussions on the effectiveness of AMPs in various stakeholder processes.
Zusammenfassung
Mit monatelangen Dürrephasen, Hitzesommern und Hochwasserereignissen ist die globale Klimaerwärmung auch in Deutschland in den letzten Jahren verstärkt in Erscheinung getreten. Im ...2021 novellierten Klimaschutzgesetz wird daher eine Klimaneutralität bis 2045 angestrebt. Gleichzeitig sind in Agrarlandschaften trotz entsprechender europarechtlicher Verpflichtungen günstige Erhaltungszustände bei Habitaten, Arten und Gewässer weiterhin die Ausnahme. Im nachfolgenden Beitrag schätzen wir für verschiedene landschaftsgestaltende oder produktionsintegrierte Maßnahmen die potenziellen Wirkungen hinsichtlich Klimaschutz und -anpassung, günstiger Erhaltungszustände sowie für die langfristige Versorgungssicherheit und die Profitabilität von Landnutzungen ab. Anhand dieser Wirksamkeitsabschätzungen identifizieren wir anschließend prioritär zu ergreifende Maßnahmen. Die vergleichende Wirksamkeitsabschätzung soll helfen, in Anbetracht begrenzter finanzieller und personeller Ressourcen die geeignetsten Maßnahmen vorrangig zu ergreifen.
The degree of success of river water diversion planning decisions is affected by uncertain environmental conditions. The adaptive water management framework incorporates this uncertainty at all ...stages of management. While the most effective form of adaptive management requires experimental comparison of practices, the use of optimization modeling is convenient for conducting exploratory simulations to evaluate the spatiotemporal implications of current water diversion management decisions under future environmental changes. We demonstrate such an explorative modeling approach by assessing river water availability for diversion in a river basin in Northern Spain under two future environmental scenarios that combine climate and land use change. An evolutionary optimization method is applied to identify and reduce trade-offs with Supporting Ecosystem Services linked to environmental flow requirements for relevant local freshwater species. The results show that seasonal shifts and spatial heterogeneity of diversion volumes are the main challenges for the future diversion management of the Pas River. Basin-scale diversion management should take into account the seasonal planning horizon and the setting of tailored diversion targets at the local-level to promote the implementation of adaptive management. The presented assessment can help with strategic placement of diversion points and timing of withdrawals, but it also provides deeper insight into how optimisation can support decision-making in managing water diversion under uncertain future environmental conditions.
Developing a general, predictive understanding of ecological systems requires knowing how much structural and functional relationships can cross scales and contexts. Here, we introduce the CROSSLINK ...project that investigates the role of forested riparian buffers in modified European landscapes by measuring a wide range of ecosystem attributes in stream-riparian networks. CROSSLINK involves replicated field measurements in four case-study basins with varying levels of human development: Norway (Oslo Fjord), Sweden (Lake Mälaren), Belgium (Zwalm River), and Romania (Argeş River). Nested within these case-study basins include multiple, independent stream-site pairs with a forested riparian buffer and unbuffered section located upstream, as well as headwater and downstream sites to show cumulative land-use impacts. CROSSLINK applies existing and bespoke methods to describe habitat conditions, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning in aquatic and terrestrial habitats. Here, we summarize the approaches used, detail protocols in supplementary materials, and explain how data is applied in an optimization framework to better manage tradeoffs in multifunctional landscapes. We then present results demonstrating the range of riparian conditions present in our case-study basins and how these environmental states influence stream ecological integrity with the commonly used macroinvertebrate Average Score Per Taxon (ASPT) index. We demonstrate that a qualitative index of riparian integrity can be positively associated with stream ecological status. This introduction to the CROSSLINK project shows the potential for our replicated study with its panoply of ecosystem attributes to help guide management decisions regarding the use of forested riparian buffers in human-impacted landscapes. This knowledge is highly relevant in a time of rapid environmental change where freshwater biodiversity is increasingly under pressure from a range of human impacts that include habitat loss, pollution, and climate change.
Patches of riparian woody vegetation potentially help mitigate environmental impacts of agriculture and safeguard biodiversity. We investigated the effects of riparian forest on invertebrate ...diversity in coupled stream-riparian networks using a case study in the Zwalm river basin (Flanders, Belgium). Agriculture is one of the main pressures in the basin and riparian forest is limited to a number of isolated patches. Our 32 study sites comprised nine unshaded “unbuffered” sites which were paired with nine shaded “buffered” sites on the same stream reach, along with five ‘least-disturbed’ sites and nine downstream sites. We sampled water chemistry, habitat characteristics and stream and riparian invertebrates (carabid beetles and spiders) at each site. Three methods were used to quantify riparian attributes at different spatial scales: a visually-assessed qualitative index, quantitative estimates of habitat categories in six rectangular plots (10 × 5 m) and geographic information system (GIS)-derived land cover data. We investigated relationships between invertebrates and riparian attributes at different scales with linear regression and redundancy analyses. Spiders and carabids were most associated with local riparian attributes. In contrast, aquatic macroinvertebrates were strongly influenced by the extent of riparian vegetation in a riparian band upstream (100–300 m). These findings demonstrate the value of quantifying GIS-based metrics of riparian cover over larger spatial scales into assessments of the efficacy of riparian management as a complement to more detailed local scale riparian assessments in situ. Our findings highlight the value of even small patches of riparian vegetation in an otherwise extensively disturbed landscape in supporting biodiversity of both terrestrial and freshwater invertebrates and emphasize the need to consider multiple spatial scales in riparian management strategies which aim to mitigate human impacts on biodiversity in stream-riparian networks.
Agricultural intensification has stimulated the economy in the Guayas River basin in Ecuador, but also affected several ecosystems. The increased use of pesticides poses a serious threat to the ...freshwater ecosystem, which urgently calls for an improved knowledge about the impact of pesticide practices in this study area. Several studies have shown that models can be appropriate tools to simulate pesticide dynamics in order to obtain this knowledge. This study tested the suitability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the dynamics of two different pesticides in the data scarce Guayas River basin. First, we set up, calibrated and validated the model using the streamflow data. Subsequently, we set up the model for the simulation of the selected pesticides (i.e., pendimethalin and fenpropimorph). While the hydrology was represented soundly by the model considering the data scare conditions, the simulation of the pesticides should be taken with care due to uncertainties behind essential drivers, e.g., application rates. Among the insights obtained from the pesticide simulations are the identification of critical zones for prioritisation, the dominant areas of pesticide sources and the impact of the different land uses. SWAT has been evaluated to be a suitable tool to investigate the impact of pesticide use under data scarcity in the Guayas River basin. The strengths of SWAT are its semi-distributed structure, availability of extensive online documentation, internal pesticide databases and user support while the limitations are high data requirements, time-intensive model development and challenging streamflow calibration. The results can also be helpful to design future water quality monitoring strategies. However, for future studies, we highly recommend extended monitoring of pesticide concentrations and sediment loads. Moreover, to substantially improve the model performance, the availability of better input data is needed such as higher resolution soil maps, more accurate pesticide application rate and actual land management programs. Provided that key suggestions for further improvement are considered, the model is valuable for applications in river ecosystem management of the Guayas River basin.
It is increasingly recognized in science and policy that landscapes need to be managed for multifunctionality. Multi-objective land-use allocation and agent-based modelling are two potent tools to ...explore the potential of landscapes to provide multiple ecosystem services. However, in the case of the former, the real-world feasibility of the biophysically optimal land-use configurations remains unclear. Meanwhile, agent-based models are not well-suited to recognize the biophysical potential of landscapes to provide multiple ecosystem services. In this paper, we propose an approach to align multi-objective optimization with agent-based modelling in order to investigate the economic, institutional and social feasibility of biophysically optimal landscapes. It especially allows to contrast biophysically optimized land-use patterns with the option space circumscribed by relevant policy frameworks. We argue that a structured comparison of biophysical optimization with an exploration of the parameter space of an agent-based model can be used to identify the real-world feasibility and the barriers to reaching multifunctional landscapes. We demonstrate the applicability of our approach by using it on a virtual landscape, which allows us to detect the importance of various economic, institutional and behavioural factors that facilitate or hamper moving the social–ecological system towards its biophysical potential. Particularly, we demonstrate the essential role of tailored policy instruments. Our approach can be useful in informing land-use policy with respect to its effectiveness and efficiency in achieving multifunctional landscapes.
Global demand for agricultural and forestry products fundamentally affects regional land-use change associated with environmental impacts (EIs) such as erosion. In contrast to aggregated global ...metrics such as greenhouse gas (GHG) balances, local/regional EIs of different agricultural and forestry production regions need methods which enable worldwide EI comparisons. The key aspect is to control environmental heterogeneity to reveal man-made differences of EIs between production regions. Environmental heterogeneity is the variation in biotic and abiotic environmental conditions. In the present study, we used three approaches to control environmental heterogeneity: (i) environmental stratification, (ii) potential natural vegetation (PNV), and (iii) regional environmental thresholds to compare EIs of solid biomass production. We compared production regions of managed forests and plantation forests in subtropical (Satilla watershed, Southeastern US), tropical (Rufiji basin, Tanzania), and temperate (Mulde watershed, Central Germany) climates. All approaches supported the comparison of the EIs of different land-use classes between and within production regions. They also standardized the different EIs for a comparison between the EI categories. The EIs for different land-use classes within a production region decreased with increasing degree of naturalness (forest, plantation forestry, and cropland). PNV was the most reliable approach, but lacked feasibility and relevance. The PNV approach explicitly included most of the factors that drive environmental heterogeneity in contrast to the stratification and threshold approaches. The stratification approach allows consistent global application due to available data. Regional environmental thresholds only included arbitrarily selected aspects of environmental heterogeneity; they are only available for few EIs. Especially, the PNV and stratification approaches are options to compare regional EIs of biomass or crop production such as erosion, biodiversity, or water quality impacts worldwide and thereby complement existing metrics assessing global EIs such as GHG emissions.
Riparian zones form a boundary between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, with disproportionate influences on food web dynamics and ecosystem functioning in both habitats. However, riparian ...boundaries are frequently degraded by human activities, including urbanization, leading to direct impacts on terrestrial communities and indirect changes that are mediated through altered connectivity with adjacent aquatic ecosystems. We investigated how riparian habitat influences fish communities in an urban context. We electrofished nine urban site pairs with and without forested riparian buffers, alongside an additional 12 sites that were located throughout the river networks in the Oslo Fjord basin, Norway. Brown trout (Salmo trutta) were the dominant fish species. Riparian buffers had weak positive effects on fish densities at low to moderate levels of catchment urbanization, whereas fish were absent from highly polluted streams. Subtle shifts in fish size distributions suggested that riparian buffers play an important role in metapopulation dynamics. Stable isotopes in fish from buffered reaches indicated dietary shifts, pointing to the potential for a greater reliance on terrestrial-sourced carbon. Combining these results, we postulate that spatially-mediated ontogenetic diet shifts may be important for the persistence of brown trout in urban streams. Our results show that using a food web perspective is essential in understanding how riparian buffers can offset impacts in urban catchments.
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