Objective:
To examine trajectories of psychological functioning using latent class analysis on a sample of hospitalized survivors of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong ...Kong.
Design:
A longitudinal study of 997 survivors, recruited from among 1,331 individuals hospitalized for SARS, were interviewed at 6, 12, and 18 months after hospitalization.
Main Outcome Measures:
Psychological and physical functioning at each time point was measured using the 12-item Medical Outcome Study Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12).
Results:
Four latent classes were identified-chronic dysfunction, delayed dysfunction, recovery, and resilience. All groups had better physical health than the chronic group. Resilient and recovered individuals had greater social support and less SARS-related worry, and resilient individuals were more likely to be male. The resilient group also had greater social support than the delayed group and better physical functioning than the recovered group.
Conclusion:
This study demonstrated that longitudinal outcome trajectories following a major health-threat event in an Asian sample bear close resemblance to prototypical trajectories observed in trauma studies using Western samples. Unique predictors of the trajectories included factors observed in previous studies, such as social support, as well as factors of particular relevance to a major disease outbreak, such as SARS-related worry.
The case‐control design is widely used in retrospective database studies, often leading to spectacular findings. However, results of these studies often cannot be replicated, and the advantage of ...this design over others is questionable. To demonstrate the shortcomings of applications of this design, we replicate two published case‐control studies. The first investigates isotretinoin and ulcerative colitis using a simple case‐control design. The second focuses on dipeptidyl peptidase‐4 inhibitors and acute pancreatitis, using a nested case‐control design. We include large sets of negative control exposures (where the true odds ratio is believed to be 1) in both studies. Both replication studies produce effect size estimates consistent with the original studies, but also generate estimates for the negative control exposures showing substantial residual bias. In contrast, applying a self‐controlled design to answer the same questions using the same data reveals far less bias. Although the case‐control design in general is not at fault, its application in retrospective database studies, where all exposure and covariate data for the entire cohort are available, is unnecessary, as other alternatives such as cohort and self‐controlled designs are available. Moreover, by focusing on cases and controls it opens the door to inappropriate comparisons between exposure groups, leading to confounding for which the design has few options to adjust for. We argue that this design should no longer be used in these types of data. At the very least, negative control exposures should be used to prove that the concerns raised here do not apply.
Human coronaviruses (HCoVs) were first described in the 1960s for patients with the common cold. Since then, more HCoVs have been discovered, including those that cause severe acute respiratory ...syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), two pathogens that, upon infection, can cause fatal respiratory disease in humans. It was recently discovered that dromedary camels in Saudi Arabia harbor three different HCoV species, including a dominant MERS HCoV lineage that was responsible for the outbreaks in the Middle East and South Korea during 2015. In this review we aim to compare and contrast the different HCoVs with regard to epidemiology and pathogenesis, in addition to the virus evolution and recombination events which have, on occasion, resulted in outbreaks amongst humans.
Experimental evidence has indicated the benefits of simvastatin for the treatment of subarachnoid hemorrhage. Two randomized placebo-controlled pilot trials that used the highest clinically approved ...dose of simvastatin (80 mg daily) gave positive results despite the fact that a lower dose of simvastatin (40 mg daily) did not improve clinical outcomes. We hypothesized that a high dose of 80 mg of simvastatin daily for 3 weeks would reduce the incidence of delayed ischemic deficits after subarachnoid hemorrhage compared with a lower dose (40 mg of simvastatin daily) and lead to improved clinical outcomes.
The study design was a randomized controlled double-blinded clinical trial. Patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (presenting within 96 hours of the ictus) from 6 neurosurgical centers were recruited for 3 years. The primary outcome measure was the presence of delayed ischemic deficits, and secondary outcome measures included a modified Rankin disability score at 3 months and an analysis of cost-effectiveness.
No difference was observed between the groups treated with the higher dose or the lower dose of simvastatin in the incidence of delayed ischemic deficits (27% versus 24%; odds ratio, 1.2; 95% confidence interval, 0.7-2.0; P=0.586) or in the rate of favorable outcomes (modified Rankin Scale score, 0-2) at 3 months (73% versus 72%; odds ratio, 1.1; 95% confidence interval, 0.6-1.9; P=0.770).
High-dose simvastatin treatment should not be prescribed routinely for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.
http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01077206.
Unruptured intracranial aneurysms not undergoing preventive endovascular or neurosurgical treatment are often monitored radiologically to detect aneurysm growth, which is associated with an increase ...in risk of rupture. However, the absolute risk of aneurysm rupture after detection of growth remains unclear.
To determine the absolute risk of rupture of an aneurysm after detection of growth during follow-up and to develop a prediction model for rupture.
Individual patient data were obtained from 15 international cohorts. Patients 18 years and older who had follow-up imaging for at least 1 untreated unruptured intracranial aneurysm with growth detected at follow-up imaging and with 1 day or longer of follow-up after growth were included. Fusiform or arteriovenous malformation-related aneurysms were excluded. Of the 5166 eligible patients who had follow-up imaging for intracranial aneurysms, 4827 were excluded because no aneurysm growth was detected, and 27 were excluded because they had less than 1 day follow-up after detection of growth.
All included aneurysms had growth, defined as 1 mm or greater increase in 1 direction at follow-up imaging.
The primary outcome was aneurysm rupture. The absolute risk of rupture was measured with the Kaplan-Meier estimate at 3 time points (6 months, 1 year, and 2 years) after initial growth. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify predictors of rupture after growth detection.
A total of 312 patients were included (223 71% were women; mean SD age, 61 12 years) with 329 aneurysms with growth. During 864 aneurysm-years of follow-up, 25 (7.6%) of these aneurysms ruptured. The absolute risk of rupture after growth was 2.9% (95% CI, 0.9-4.9) at 6 months, 4.3% (95% CI, 1.9-6.7) at 1 year, and 6.0% (95% CI, 2.9-9.1) at 2 years. In multivariable analyses, predictors of rupture were size (7 mm or larger hazard ratio, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.4-7.2), shape (irregular hazard ratio, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.3-6.5), and site (middle cerebral artery hazard ratio, 3.6; 95% CI, 0.8-16.3; anterior cerebral artery, posterior communicating artery, or posterior circulation hazard ratio, 2.8; 95% CI, 0.6-13.0). In the triple-S (size, site, shape) prediction model, the 1-year risk of rupture ranged from 2.1% to 10.6%.
Within 1 year after growth detection, rupture occurred in approximately 1 of 25 aneurysms. The triple-S risk prediction model can be used to estimate absolute risk of rupture for the initial period after detection of growth.
Abstract
BACKGROUND:
Health-related quality of life has recently been suggested as a supplement to the traditional neurological outcome measures from the patient's perspective according to the World ...Health Organization model and may capture the effects of other factors such as posttraumatic stress disorder and neuroendocrine dysfunction.
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the profile and clinical factors of quality of life after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using the data we obtained from the recently completed Intravenous Magnesium Sulphate After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage (IMASH) trial.
METHODS:
This study was registered at www.strokecenter.org/trials and www.ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00124150). Data from a patient cohort obtained with the Short Form-36 questionnaire completed at 6 months were used for analysis.
RESULTS:
Patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage demonstrated a decrease in quality of life according to the Short Form-36 at 6 months. The physical and mental health scores correlated with the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale and had the potential to avoid the ceiling effect. Multiple regression analyses showed that the physical component scores were related to age, World Federation of Neurological Surgeons grade, and chronic hydrocephalus and that the mental component scores were not related to the traditional prognostic factors.
CONCLUSION:
Subarachnoid hemorrhage caused a decrease in quality of life. Chronic hydrocephalus is related to a decrease in physical health quality of life.
Abstract Background There is limited evidence to guide the recognition of patients with massive, uncontrolled hemorrhage who require initiation of a massive transfusion (MT) protocol. Objective To ...risk stratify patients with major trauma and to predict need for MT. Designs Retrospective analysis of an administrative trauma database of major trauma patients. A regional trauma Centre A regional trauma centres in Hong Kong. Patients Patients with Injury Severity Score ≥9 and age ≥12 years were included. Burn patients, patients with known severe anemia and renal failure, or died within 24 h were excluded. Main outcome measures Delivery of ≥10 units of packed red blood cells (RBC) within 24 h. Results Between 01/01/2001 and 30/06/2009, 1891 patients met the inclusion criteria. 92 patients required ≥10 units RBC within 24 h. Seven variables which were easy to be measured in the ED and significantly predicted the need for MT are heart rate ≥120/min; systolic blood pressure ≤90 mmHg; Glasgow coma scale ≤8; displaced pelvic fracture; CT scan or FAST positive for fluid; base deficit >5 mmol/L; hemoglobin ≤7 g/dL; and hemoglobin 7.1–10 g/dL. At a cut off of ≥6, the overall correct classification for predicting need for MT was 96.9%, with a sensitivity of 31.5% and specificity of 99.7%, and an incidence of MT of 82.9%. The area under the curve was 0.889. Conclusion A prediction rule for determining an increased likelihood for the need for massive transfusion has been derived. This needs validation in an independent data set.
AbstractObjectiveTo develop and validate a set of practical prediction tools that reliably estimate the outcome of subarachnoid haemorrhage from ruptured intracranial aneurysms (SAH).DesignCohort ...study with logistic regression analysis to combine predictors and treatment modality.SettingSubarachnoid Haemorrhage International Trialists’ (SAHIT) data repository, including randomised clinical trials, prospective observational studies, and hospital registries.ParticipantsResearchers collaborated to pool datasets of prospective observational studies, hospital registries, and randomised clinical trials of SAH from multiple geographical regions to develop and validate clinical prediction models.Main outcome measurePredicted risk of mortality or functional outcome at three months according to score on the Glasgow outcome scale.ResultsClinical prediction models were developed with individual patient data from 10 936 patients and validated with data from 3355 patients after development of the model. In the validation cohort, a core model including patient age, premorbid hypertension, and neurological grade on admission to predict risk of functional outcome had good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.82). When the core model was extended to a “neuroimaging model,” with inclusion of clot volume, aneurysm size, and location, the AUC improved to 0.81 (0.79 to 0.84). A full model that extended the neuroimaging model by including treatment modality had AUC of 0.81 (0.79 to 0.83). Discrimination was lower for a similar set of models to predict risk of mortality (AUC for full model 0.76, 0.69 to 0.82). All models showed satisfactory calibration in the validation cohort.ConclusionThe prediction models reliably estimate the outcome of patients who were managed in various settings for ruptured intracranial aneurysms that caused subarachnoid haemorrhage. The predictor items are readily derived at hospital admission. The web based SAHIT prognostic calculator (http://sahitscore.com) and the related app could be adjunctive tools to support management of patients.
Background
Clinical prediction models can enhance clinical decision-making and research. However, available prediction models in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) are rarely used. We ...evaluated the methodological validity of SAH prediction models and the relevance of the main predictors to identify potentially reliable models and to guide future attempts at model development.
Methods
We searched the EMBASE, MEDLINE, and Web of Science databases from January 1995 to June 2012 to identify studies that reported clinical prediction models for mortality and functional outcome in aSAH. Validated methods were used to minimize bias.
Results
Eleven studies were identified; 3 developed models from datasets of phase 3 clinical trials, the others from single hospital records. The median patient sample size was 340 (interquartile range 149–733). The main predictors used were age (
n
= 8), Fisher grade (
n
= 6), World Federation of Neurological Surgeons grade (
n
= 5), aneurysm size (
n
= 5), and Hunt and Hess grade (
n
= 3). Age was consistently dichotomized. Potential predictors were prescreened by univariate analysis in 36 % of studies. Only one study was penalized for model optimism. Details about model development were often insufficiently described and no published studies provided external validation.
Conclusions
While clinical prediction models for aSAH use a few simple predictors, there are substantial methodological problems with the models and none have had external validation. This precludes the use of existing models for clinical or research purposes. We recommend further studies to develop and validate reliable clinical prediction models for aSAH.
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