Lake ecosystems are vulnerable to seasonal thermal cues, with subtle alterations in the timing of seasonal temperatures having a dramatic influence on aquatic species. Here, a measure of seasonal ...change in temperature is used to describe the pace of shifting seasons in lakes. Since 1980 spring and summer temperatures in Northern Hemisphere lakes have arrived earlier (2.0- and 4.3-days decade
, respectively), whilst the arrival of autumn has been delayed (1.5-days decade
) and the summer season lengthened (5.6-days decade
). This century, under a high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, current spring and summer temperatures will arrive even earlier (3.3- and 8.3-days decade
, respectively), autumn temperatures will arrive later (3.1-days decade
), and the summer season will lengthen further (12.1-days decade
). These seasonal alterations will be much slower under a low-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario. Changes in seasonal temperatures will benefit some species, by prolonging the growing season, but negatively impact others, by leading to phenological mismatches in critical activities.
Abstract
Our planet is being subjected to unprecedented climate change, with far-reaching social and ecological repercussions. Below the waterline, aquatic ecosystems are being affected by multiple ...climate-related and anthropogenic stressors, the combined effects of which are poorly understood and rarely appreciated at the global stage. A striking consequence of climate change on aquatic ecosystems is that many are experiencing shorter periods of ice cover, as well as earlier and longer summer stratified seasons, which often result in a cascade of ecological and environmental consequences, such as warmer summer water temperatures, alterations in lake mixing and water levels, declines in dissolved oxygen, increased likelihood of cyanobacterial algal blooms, and the loss of habitat for native cold-water fisheries. The repercussions of a changing climate include impacts on freshwater supplies, water quality, biodiversity, and the ecosystem benefits that they provide to society.
Summer lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) have previously been shown to respond more rapidly to climatic warming compared to local summer surface air temperatures (SATs). In a global-scale ...analysis, we explore the factors underpinning the observation of an amplified response of summer LSWT to SAT variability using 20 years of satellite-derived temperatures from 144 lakes. We demonstrate that the degree of amplification in inter-annual summer LSWT is variable, and is greater for cold lakes (e.g. high latitude and high altitude), which are characterised by a short warming season, and deep lakes, that exhibit long correlation timescales of temperature anomalies due to increased thermal inertia. Such lakes are more likely to display responses in excess of local inter-annual summer SAT variability. Climatic modification of LSWT has numerous consequences for water quality and lake ecosystems, so quantifying this amplified response at a global scale is important.
Water temperature is critical for the ecology of lakes. However, the ability to predict its spatial and seasonal variation is constrained by the lack of a thermal classification system. Here we ...define lake thermal regions using objective analysis of seasonal surface temperature dynamics from satellite observations. Nine lake thermal regions are identified that mapped robustly and largely contiguously globally, even for small lakes. The regions differed from other global patterns, and so provide unique information. Using a lake model forced by 21
century climate projections, we found that 12%, 27% and 66% of lakes will change to a lower latitude thermal region by 2080-2099 for low, medium and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5) respectively. Under the worst-case scenario, a 79% reduction in the number of lakes in the northernmost thermal region is projected. This thermal region framework can facilitate the global scaling of lake-research.
Lake heatwaves under climate change Woolway, R Iestyn; Jennings, Eleanor; Shatwell, Tom ...
Nature,
01/2021, Letnik:
589, Številka:
7842
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Lake ecosystems, and the organisms that live within them, are vulnerable to temperature change
, including the increased occurrence of thermal extremes
. However, very little is known about lake ...heatwaves-periods of extreme warm lake surface water temperature-and how they may change under global warming. Here we use satellite observations and a numerical model to investigate changes in lake heatwaves for hundreds of lakes worldwide from 1901 to 2099. We show that lake heatwaves will become hotter and longer by the end of the twenty-first century. For the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5), the average intensity of lake heatwaves, defined relative to the historical period (1970 to 1999), will increase from 3.7 ± 0.1 to 5.4 ± 0.8 degrees Celsius and their average duration will increase dramatically from 7.7 ± 0.4 to 95.5 ± 35.3 days. In the low-greenhouse-gas-emission RCP 2.6 scenario, heatwave intensity and duration will increase to 4.0 ± 0.2 degrees Celsius and 27.0 ± 7.6 days, respectively. Surface heatwaves are longer-lasting but less intense in deeper lakes (up to 60 metres deep) than in shallower lakes during both historic and future periods. As lakes warm during the twenty-first century
, their heatwaves will begin to extend across multiple seasons, with some lakes reaching a permanent heatwave state. Lake heatwaves are likely to exacerbate the adverse effects of long-term warming in lakes and exert widespread influence on their physical structure and chemical properties. Lake heatwaves could alter species composition by pushing aquatic species and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience. This in turn could threaten lake biodiversity
and the key ecological and economic benefits that lakes provide to society.
Abstract
How lake temperatures across large geographic regions are responding to widespread alterations in ice phenology (i.e., the timing of seasonal ice formation and loss) remains unclear. Here, ...we analyse satellite data and global-scale simulations to investigate the contribution of long-term variations in the seasonality of lake ice to surface water temperature trends across the Northern Hemisphere. Our analysis suggests a widespread excess lake surface warming during the months of ice-off which is, on average, 1.4 times that calculated during the open-water season. This excess warming is influenced predominantly by an 8-day advancement in the average timing of ice break-up from 1979 to 2020. Until the permanent loss of lake ice in the future, excess lake warming may be further amplified due to projected future alterations in lake ice phenology. Excess lake warming will likely alter within-lake physical and biogeochemical processes with numerous implications for lake ecosystems.
To quantify the effects of recent and potential future decreases in surface wind speeds on lake thermal stratification, we apply the one-dimensional process-based model MyLake to a large, shallow, ...polymictic lake, Võrtsjärv. The model is validated for a 3-year period and run separately for 28 years using long-term daily atmospheric forcing data from a nearby meteorological station. Model simulations show exceptionally good agreement with observed surface and bottom water temperatures during the 3-year period. Similarly, simulated surface water temperatures for 28 years show remarkably good agreement with long-term in situ water temperatures. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that decreasing wind speeds has resulted in substantial changes in stratification dynamics since 1982, while increasing air temperatures during the same period had a negligible effect. Atmospheric stilling is a phenomenon observed globally, and in addition to recent increases in surface air temperature, needs to be considered when evaluating the influence of climate change on lake ecosystems.
In this paper we review the use of satellite-based remote sensing in combination with in situ data to inform Earth surface modelling. This involves verification and optimization methods that can ...handle both random and systematic errors and result in effective model improvement for both surface monitoring and prediction applications. The reasons for diverse remote sensing data and products include (i) their complementary areal and temporal coverage, (ii) their diverse and covariant information content, and (iii) their ability to complement in situ observations, which are often sparse and only locally representative. To improve our understanding of the complex behavior of the Earth system at the surface and sub-surface, we need large volumes of data from high-resolution modelling and remote sensing, since the Earth surface exhibits a high degree of heterogeneity and discontinuities in space and time. The spatial and temporal variability of the biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and anthroposphere calls for an increased use of Earth observation (EO) data attaining volumes previously considered prohibitive. We review data availability and discuss recent examples where satellite remote sensing is used to infer observable surface quantities directly or indirectly, with particular emphasis on key parameters necessary for weather and climate prediction. Coordinated high-resolution remote-sensing and modelling/assimilation capabilities for the Earth surface are required to support an international application-focused effort.
The majority of lake temperature studies have investigated climate‐induced changes occurring at the lake surface, primarily by analyzing detailed satellite images of surface water temperature. Whilst ...essential to observe long‐term change, satellite images do not provide information on the thermal environment at depth, thus limiting our understanding of lake thermal responses to a warming world. Long‐term in situ observational data can fill some of the information gap, with depth‐resolved field measurements providing a detailed view of thermal change throughout the water column. However, many previous studies that have investigated multi‐decadal changes in lake temperature, both at the surface and at depth, have typically focused on north temperate lakes. Relatively few studies have investigated temperature variations in lakes situated north of the Arctic Circle, which is one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth. Here, using a 60‐year (1961–2020) observational data set of summer water temperature (July–September) from Lake Inari (Finland), we investigate changes in the thermal environment of this pristine lake. Our analysis suggests a statistically significant summer warming trend at the lake surface (+0.25°C decade−1, p‐value <0.1), whilst deepwater temperatures remain largely unchanged. This contrasting thermal response of surface and bottom water temperature to climatic warming has likewise resulted in a strengthening of summer stratification in this high latitude lake. Implications of the observed change in both temperature and stratification on the lake ecosystem will likely be extensive, including impacts on aquatic organisms which this lake supports. Our work builds on the ever‐growing literature regarding lake thermal responses to climate change.
Key Points
We investigated the thermal response of Lake Inari, northern Finland, to climate change from 1961 to 2020
Surface water temperatures increased considerably (+0.25°C decade−1), but no significant trends were observed at depth
Lake surface temperatures were influenced by the long‐term change in summer air temperature and solar radiation as well as the timing of annual ice loss
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