The air-sea fluxes of momentum, heat, freshwater and their components have been computed globally from 1948 at frequencies ranging from 6-hourly to monthly. All fluxes are computed over the 23 years ...from 1984 to 2006, but radiation prior to 1984 and precipitation before 1979 are given only as climatological mean annual cycles. The input data are based on NCEP reanalysis only for the near surface vector wind, temperature, specific humidity and density, and on a variety of satellite based radiation, sea surface temperature, sea-ice concentration and precipitation products. Some of these data are adjusted to agree in the mean with a variety of more reliable satellite and in situ measurements, that themselves are either too short a duration, or too regional in coverage. The major adjustments are a general increase in wind speed, decrease in humidity and reduction in tropical solar radiation. The climatological global mean air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes (1984-2006) then become 2 W/m² and -0.1 mg/m² per second, respectively, down from 30 W/m² and 3.4 mg/m² per second for the unaltered data. However, decadal means vary from 7.3 W/m² (1977-1986) to -0.3 W/m² (1997-2006). The spatial distributions of climatological fluxes display all the expected features. A comparison of zonally averaged wind stress components across ocean sub-basins reveals large differences between available products due both to winds and to the stress calculation. Regional comparisons of the heat and freshwater fluxes reveal an alarming range among alternatives; typically 40 W/m² and 10 mg/m² per second, respectively. The implied ocean heat transports are within the uncertainty of estimates from ocean observations in both the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific basins. They show about 2.4 PW of tropical heating, of which 80% is transported to the north, mostly in the Atlantic. There is similar good agreement in freshwater transport at many latitudes in both basins, but neither in the South Atlantic, nor at 35°N.
Purpose of Review
Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long ...emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems.
Recent Findings
The AMOC—or more precisely, the buoyancy-forced thermohaline circulation (THC) that encompasses both overturning and gyre circulations—appears to underpin decadal timescale prediction skill in the subpolar North Atlantic in retrospective forecasts. Skill in predicting more wide-ranging climate variations, including those over land, is more limited, but there are indications this could improve with more advanced models.
Summary
Preliminary successes in the field of initialized Atlantic climate prediction confirm the climate relevance of low-frequency Atlantic Ocean dynamics and suggest that useful decadal climate prediction is a realizable goal.
PREDICTING NEAR-TERM CHANGES IN THE EARTH SYSTEM Yeager, S. G.; Danabasoglu, G.; Rosenbloom, N. A. ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
09/2018, Letnik:
99, Številka:
9
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The objective of near-term climate prediction is to improve our fore-knowledge, from years to a decade or more in advance, of impactful climate changes that can in general be attributed to a ...combination of internal and externally forced variability. Predictions initialized using observations of past climate states are tested by comparing their ability to reproduce past climate evolution with that of uninitialized simulations in which the same radiative forcings are applied. A new set of decadal prediction (DP) simulations has recently been completed using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is now available to the community. This new large-ensemble (LE) set (CESM-DPLE) is composed of historical simulations that are integrated forward for 10 years following initialization on 1 November of each year between 1954 and 2015. CESM-DPLE represents the “initialized” counterpart to the widely studied CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE); both simulation sets have 40-member ensembles, and they use identical model code and radiative forcings. Comparing CESM-DPLE to CESM-LE highlights the impacts of initialization on prediction skill and indicates that robust assessment and interpretation of DP skill may require much larger ensembles than current protocols recommend. CESM-DPLE exhibits significant and potentially useful prediction skill for a wide range of fields, regions, and time scales, and it shows widespread improvement over simpler benchmark forecasts as well as over a previous initialized system that was submitted to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The new DP system offers new capabilities that will be of interest to a broad community pursuing Earth system prediction research.
Global satellite observations show the sea surface temperature (SST) increasing since the 1970s in all ocean basins, while the net air–sea heat fluxQdecreases. Over the period 1984–2006 the global ...changes are 0.28°C in SST and −9.1 W m−2inQ, giving an effective air–sea coupling coefficient of −32 W m−2°C−1. The global response inQexpected from SST alone is determined to be −12.9 W m−2, and the global distribution of the associated coupling coefficient is shown. Typically, about one-half (6.8 W m−2) of this SST effect on heat flux is compensated by changes in the overlying near-surface atmosphere. Slab Ocean Models (SOMs) assume that ocean heating processes do not change from year to year so that a constant annual heat flux would maintain a linear trend in annual SST. However, the necessary 6.1 W m−2increase is not found in the downwelling longwave and shortwave fluxes, which combined show a −3 W m−2decrease. The SOM assumptions are revisited to determine the most likely source of the inconsistency with observations of (−12.9 + 6.8 − 3) = −9.1 W m−2. The indirect inference is that diminished ocean cooling due to vertical ocean processes played an important role in sustaining the observed positive trend in global SST from 1984 through 2006, despite the decrease in global surface heat flux. A similar situation is found in the individual basins, though magnitudes differ. A conclusion is that natural variability, rather than long-term climate change, dominates the SST and heat flux changes over this 23-yr period. On shorter time scales the relationship between SST and heat flux exhibits a variety of behaviors.
We present an analysis of annual and seasonal mean characteristics of the Indian Ocean circulation and water masses from 16 global ocean–sea-ice model simulations that follow the Coordinated ...Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE) interannual protocol (CORE-II). All simulations show a similar large-scale tropical current system, but with differences in the Equatorial Undercurrent. Most CORE-II models simulate the structure of the Cross Equatorial Cell (CEC) in the Indian Ocean. We uncover a previously unidentified secondary pathway of northward cross-equatorial transport along 75 °E, thus complementing the pathway near the Somali Coast. This secondary pathway is most prominent in the models which represent topography realistically, thus suggesting a need for realistic bathymetry in climate models. When probing the water mass structure in the upper ocean, we find that the salinity profiles are closer to observations in geopotential (level) models than in isopycnal models. More generally, we find that biases are model dependent, thus suggesting a grouping into model lineage, formulation of the surface boundary, vertical coordinate and surface salinity restoring. Refinement in model horizontal resolution (one degree versus 14 degree) does not significantly improve simulations, though there are some marginal improvements in the salinity and barrier layer results. The results in turn suggest that a focus on improving physical parameterizations (e.g. boundary layer processes) may offer more near-term advances in Indian Ocean simulations than refined grid resolution.
•Assessment of the Indian Ocean simulation from global forced sea- ice models.•SST biases are ∼2 times smaller in forced simulations than the coupled simulations.•Coupled model shows large inter-model spread over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.•Refinement in model horizontal resolution does not significantly improve simulations.•Uncover a secondary pathway of northward cross-equatorial transport along 75 °E.•Models are unable to capture the observed thick barrier layer in the north Bay of Bengal.
The aim of the present study was to investigate the efficacy of infliximab for the treatment of extrapulmonary sarcoidosis. A prospective, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was ...conducted, with infliximab at 3 and 5 mg x kg(-1) body weight administered over 24 weeks. Extrapulmonary organ severity was determined by a novel severity tool (extrapulmonary physician organ severity tool; ePOST) with an adjustment for the number of organs involved (ePOSTadj). In total, 138 patients enrolled in the trial of infliximab versus placebo for the treatment of chronic corticosteroid-dependent pulmonary sarcoidosis. The baseline severity of extrapulmonary organ involvement, as measured by ePOST, was similar across treatment groups. After 24 weeks of drug-therapy study, the change from baseline to week 24 in ePOST was greater for the combined infliximab group compared with the placebo group. After adjustment for the number of extrapulmonary organs involved, the improvement in ePOSTadj observed in the combined infliximab group was also greater than that observed in placebo-treated patients, after 24 weeks of therapy. The improvements in ePOST and ePOSTadj were not maintained during a subsequent 24-week washout period. Infliximab may be beneficial compared with placebo in the treatment of extrapulmonary sarcoidosis in patients already receiving corticosteroids, as assessed by the severity tool described in the present study.
Abstract
The Transatlantic Slave Trade transported more than 9 million Africans to the Americas between the early 16th and the mid-19th centuries. We performed a genome-wide analysis using 6,267 ...individuals from 25 populations to infer how different African groups contributed to North-, South-American, and Caribbean populations, in the context of geographic and geopolitical factors, and compared genetic data with demographic history records of the Transatlantic Slave Trade. We observed that West-Central Africa and Western Africa-associated ancestry clusters are more prevalent in northern latitudes of the Americas, whereas the South/East Africa-associated ancestry cluster is more prevalent in southern latitudes of the Americas. This pattern results from geographic and geopolitical factors leading to population differentiation. However, there is a substantial decrease in the between-population differentiation of the African gene pool within the Americas, when compared with the regions of origin from Africa, underscoring the importance of historical factors favoring admixture between individuals with different African origins in the New World. This between-population homogenization in the Americas is consistent with the excess of West-Central Africa ancestry (the most prevalent in the Americas) in the United States and Southeast-Brazil, with respect to historical-demography expectations. We also inferred that in most of the Americas, intercontinental admixture intensification occurred between 1750 and 1850, which correlates strongly with the peak of arrivals from Africa. This study contributes with a population genetics perspective to the ongoing social, cultural, and political debate regarding ancestry, admixture, and the mestizaje process in the Americas.
While climate change mitigation targets necessarily concern maximum mean state changes, understanding impacts and developing adaptation strategies will be largely contingent on how climate ...variability responds to increasing anthropogenic perturbations. Thus far Earth system modeling efforts have primarily focused on projected mean state changes and the sensitivity of specific modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. However, our knowledge of forced changes in the overall spectrum of climate variability and higher-order statistics is relatively limited. Here we present a new 100-member large ensemble of climate change projections conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 2 over 1850–2100 to examine the sensitivity of internal climate fluctuations to greenhouse warming. Our unprecedented simulations reveal that changes in variability, considered broadly in terms of probability distribution, amplitude, frequency, phasing, and patterns, are ubiquitous and span a wide range of physical and ecosystem variables across many spatial and temporal scales. Greenhouse warming in the model alters variance spectra of Earth system variables that are characterized by non-Gaussian probability distributions, such as rainfall, primary production, or fire occurrence. Our modeling results have important implications for climate adaptation efforts, resource management, seasonal predictions, and assessing potential stressors for terrestrial and marine ecosystems.
This paper presents global comparisons of fundamental global climate variables from a suite of four pairs of matched low- and high-resolution ocean and sea ice simulations that are obtained following ...the OMIP-2 protocol (Griffies et al., 2016) and integrated for one cycle (1958–2018) of the JRA55-do atmospheric state and runoff dataset (Tsujino et al., 2018). Our goal is to assess the robustness of climate-relevant improvements in ocean simulations (mean and variability) associated with moving from coarse (∼ 1∘) to eddy-resolving (∼ 0.1∘) horizontal resolutions. The models are diverse in their numerics and parameterizations, but each low-resolution and high-resolution pair of models is matched so as to isolate, to the extent possible, the effects of horizontal resolution. A variety of observational datasets are used to assess the fidelity of simulated temperature and salinity, sea surface height, kinetic energy, heat and volume transports, and sea ice distribution. This paper provides a crucial benchmark for future studies comparing and improving different schemes in any of the models used in this study or similar ones. The biases in the low-resolution simulations are familiar, and their gross features – position, strength, and variability of western boundary currents, equatorial currents, and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current – are significantly improved in the high-resolution models. However, despite the fact that the high-resolution models “resolve” most of these features, the improvements in temperature and salinity are inconsistent among the different model families, and some regions show increased bias over their low-resolution counterparts. Greatly enhanced horizontal resolution does not deliver unambiguous bias improvement in all regions for all models.
The Low-Resolution CCSM3 Yeager, Stephen G.; Shields, Christine A.; Large, William G. ...
Journal of climate,
06/2006, Letnik:
19, Številka:
11
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The low-resolution fully coupled configuration of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) is described and evaluated. In this most economical configuration, an ocean at nominal 3° ...resolution is coupled to an atmosphere model at T31 resolution. There are climate biases associated with the relatively coarse grids, yet the coupled solution remains comparable to higher-resolution CCSM3 results. There are marked improvements in the new solutioncompared to the low-resolution configuration of CCSM2. In particular, the CCSM3 simulation maintains a robust meridional overturning circulation in the ocean, and it generates more realistic El Niño variability. The improved ocean solution was achieved with no increase in computational cost by redistributing deep ocean and midlatitude resolution into the upper ocean and the key water formation regions of the North Atlantic, respectively. Given its significantly lower resource demands compared to higher resolutions, this configuration shows promise for studies of paleoclimate and other applications requiring long, equilibrated solutions.
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