Climate predictions using recent and high-resolution climate models are becoming important for effective decision-making and for designing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation ...strategies. Due to highly variable climate and data scarcity of the upper Blue Nile Basin, previous studies did not detect specific unified trends. This study discusses, the past and future climate projections under CMIP6-SSPs scenarios for the basin. For the models’ validation and selection, reanalysis data were used after comparing with area-averaged ground observational data. Quantile mapping systematic bias correction and Mann–Kendall trend test were applied to evaluate the trends of selected CMIP6 models during the 21st century. Results revealed that, ERA5 for temperature and GPCC for precipitation have best agreement with the basin observational data, MRI-ESM2-0 for temperature and BCC-CSM-2MR for precipitation were selected based on their highest performance. The MRI-ESM2-0 mean annual maximum temperature for the near (long)-term period shows an increase of 1.1 (1.5) °C, 1.3 (2.2) °C, 1.2 (2.8) °C, and 1.5 (3.8) °C under the four SSPs. On the other hand, the BCC-CSM-2MR precipitation projections show slightly (statistically insignificant) increasing trend for the near (long)-term periods by 5.9 (6.1)%, 12.8 (13.7)%, 9.5 (9.1)%, and 17.1(17.7)% under four SSPs scenarios.
Water quality degradation of freshwater bodies is a concern worldwide, particularly in Africa, where data are scarce and standard water quality monitoring is expensive. This study explored the use of ...remote sensing imagery and machine learning (ML) algorithms as an alternative to standard field measuring for monitoring water quality in large and remote areas constrained by logistics and finance. Six machine learning (ML) algorithms integrated with Landsat 8 imagery were evaluated for their accuracy in predicting three optically active water quality indicators observed monthly in the period from August 2016 to April 2022: turbidity (TUR), total dissolved solids (TDS) and Chlorophyll a (Chl-a). The six ML algorithms studied were the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine regression (SVM), random forest regression (RF), XGBoost regression (XGB), AdaBoost regression (AB), and gradient boosting regression (GB) algorithms. XGB performed best at predicting Chl-a, with an R2 of 0.78, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.78, mean absolute relative error (MARE) of 0.082 and root mean squared error (RMSE) of 9.79 µg/L. RF performed best at predicting TDS (with an R2 of 0.79, NSE of 0.80, MARE of 0.082, and RMSE of 12.30 mg/L) and TUR (with an R2 of 0.80, NSE of 0.81, and MARE of 0.072 and RMSE of 7.82 NTU). The main challenges were data size, sampling frequency, and sampling resolution. To overcome the data limitation, we used a K-fold cross validation technique that could obtain the most out of the limited data to build a robust model. Furthermore, we also employed stratified sampling techniques to improve the ML modeling for turbidity. Thus, this study shows the possibility of monitoring water quality in large freshwater bodies with limited observed data using remote sensing integrated with ML algorithms, potentially enhancing decision making.
A significant constraint in water resource development in developing countries is the lack of accurate river discharge data. Stage–discharge measurements are infrequent, and rating curves are not ...updated after major storms. Therefore, the objective is to develop accurate stage–discharge rating curves with limited measurements. The Lake Tana basin in the upper reaches of the Blue Nile in the Ethiopian Highlands is typical for the lack of reliable streamflow data in Africa. On average, one stage–discharge measurement per year is available for the 21 gaging stations over 60 years or less. To obtain accurate and unique stage–discharge curves, the discharge was expressed as a function of the water level and a time-dependent offset from zero. The offset was expressed as polynomial functions of time (up to order 4). The rating curve constants and the coefficients for the polynomial were found by minimizing the errors between observed and predicted fluxes for the available stage–discharge data. It resulted in unique rating curves with R2 > 0.85 for the four main rivers. One of the river bottoms of the alluvial channels increased in height by up to 3 m in 60 years. In the upland channels, most offsets changed by less than 50 cm. The unique rating curves that account for temporal riverbed changes can aid civil engineers in the design of reservoirs, water managers in improving reservoir management, programmers in calibration and validation of hydrology models and scientists in ecological research.
Feeding 9 billion people in 2050 will require sustainable development of all water resources, both surface and subsurface. Yet, little is known about the irrigation potential of hillside shallow ...aquifers in many highland settings in sub‐Saharan Africa that are being considered for providing irrigation water during the dry monsoon phase for smallholder farmers. Information on the shallow groundwater being available in space and time on sloping lands might aid in increasing food production in the dry monsoon phase. Therefore, the research objective of this work is to estimate potential groundwater storage as a potential source of irrigation water for hillside aquifers where lateral subsurface flow is dominant. The research was carried out in the Robit Bata experimental watershed in the Lake Tana basin which is typical of many undulating watersheds in the Ethiopian highlands. Farmers have excavated more than 300 hand dug wells for irrigation. We used 42 of these wells to monitor water table fluctuation from April 16, 2014 to December 2015. Precipitation and runoff data were recorded for the same period. The temporal groundwater storage was estimated using two methods: one based on the water balance with rainfall as input and baseflow and evaporative losses leaving the watershed as outputs; the second based on the observed rise and fall of water levels in wells. We found that maximum groundwater storage was at the end of the rain phase in September after which it decreased linearly until the middle of December due to short groundwater retention times. In the remaining part of the dry season period, only wells located close to faults contained water. Thus, without additional water sources, sloping lands can only be used for significant irrigation inputs during the first 3 months out of the 8 months long dry season.
Groundwater availability for irrigation of the sloping hillside aquifers in the sub‐humid Ethiopian highlands is limited to 3–4 months after the rain phase.
Accelerated sediment concentration has become a pervasive feature in developing countries and has substantially impacted lake ecosystem functioning. Despite this, very few comprehensive studies have ...examined the changes in sedimentation over the time that agriculture intensified greatly with the increasing population. This study aims to fill this gap using historical and recent bathymetric surveys to determine sediment deposition and link these to watershed development. With its unique ecology, Lake Tana that was pristine less than 100 years ago, is one of these systems experiencing increasing sediment concentrations. A detailed bathymetric survey was conducted in late 2017 and compared with bathymetric surveys conducted in 1940, 1987, and 2006. The result shows that in the past 77 years, Lake Tana's depth decreased an average of 28 ± 11 cm, equivalent to nearly 0.9 ± 0.4 Tg (million tons). Sediment deposition was 2.8 ± 2.3 mm a−1 between 1940 and 1987, when the agricultural intensification started. It almost doubled to 5.0 ± 3.7 mm a−1 after that. Spatially, the sediment deposition was most significant in areas near the major river inlets where 2 to 10 km long peninsulas were formed. The increase in sediment deposition is primarily driven by newly formed valley bottom gullies formed after deforestation disturbed the hydrological equilibrium, and watershed outflow increased.
In nearly 80 years, the mean depth of Lake Tana decreased by 3% or 28 cm. Recent deposition rates are more than twice that in 1940. Deforestation due to increasing population pressure is the cause of the rapidly expanding valley bottom gullies. These gullies are responsible for the increasing sediment loads to the lake.
In response to the continually increasing sediment concentrations in rivers and lakes, the Ethiopian government is leading an effort where farmers are installing soil and water conservation measures ...to increase infiltration and reduce erosion. This paper reports on findings from a four year study in the 95 ha Debre Mawi watershed where under the government led conservation works, mainly terraces with infiltration furrows were installed halfway in the period of observation. The results show that runoff volume decreased significantly after installation of the soil and water conservation practices but sediment concentration decreased only marginally. Sediment loads were reduced mainly because of the reduced runoff. Infiltration furrows were effective on the hillsides where rain water could infiltrate, but on the flat bottom lands that become saturated with the progress of the monsoon rain, infiltration was restricted and conservation practices became conduits for carrying excess rainfall. This caused the initiation of gullies in several occasions in the saturated bottomlands. Sediment concentration at the outlet barely decreased due to entrainment of loose soil from unstable banks of gullies in the periodically saturated bottom areas. Since most uphill drainage were already half filled up with sediments after two years, long term benefits of reducing runoff can only be sustained with continuous maintenance of uphill infiltration furrows.
Lakes hold most of the freshwater resources in the world. Safeguarding these in a changing environment is a major challenge. The 3000 km2 Lake Tana in the headwaters of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia is ...one of these lakes. It is situated in a zone destined for rapid development including hydropower and irrigation. Future lake management requires detailed knowledge of the water balance of Lake Tana. Since previous water balances varied greatly this paper takes a fresh look by calculating the inflow and losses of the lake. To improve the accuracy of the amount of precipitation falling on the lake, two new rainfall stations were installed in 2013. The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation Version two (CHIRPS-v2) dataset was used to extend the data. After reviewing all the previous studies and together with our measurements, it was found that the period of 1990–1995 likely had the most accurate gauged discharge data. During some months in this period, the lake water balance was negative. Since the river inflow to the lake cannot be negative, water was either lost from the lake via the subsurface through faults, or the outflow measurements were systematically underestimated. Based on the evaporation rate of 1650 mm, we found that unaccounted loss was 0.6 km3 a−1, equivalent to 20 cm of water over the lake area each year. This implies the need for reliable rainfall data and improved river discharge measurements over a greater portion of the basin both entering and exiting the lake. Also, integrated hydrological and geologic investigations are needed for a better understanding of the unaccounted water losses and quantifying the amount of subsurface flow leaving the lake.
The highlands serve as water towers for the blue water in the surrounding area, with often insufficient rainfall for rainfed crops. The population is growing in the highlands, changing the hydrology ...and blue and green water availability. One of the changes that affect the highlands of Ethiopia is the rapidly expanding areas of small patches of eucalyptus on farmers fields. This manuscript aims to sort through the limited available literature and develop a water balance model as a starting point to discuss how hydrology is affected by increased acreage of eucalyptus in the highlands. We find some evidence in the literature that patches of eucalyptus during the dry phase may withdraw water from the subsoil up to twice the rate of evapotranspiration when the soil water is not limited. Since saturation excess generates surface runoff in the subhumid and humid highlands, water withdrawn during the dry phase should be made up before the area with eucalyptus becomes hydraulically active. The amount of water that can be removed from storage by eucalyptus is greater in areas with a long dry monsoon phase than in temperate climates for the same increase in trees. We also found, as expected, that the eucalyptus water balance model, as developed in this paper, was not valid for areas in semi-arid and arid regions. Soil crusting and water repellency might induce infiltration excess runoff. A tentative implication is that since most blue water is produced in the areas with the highest rainfall, eucalyptus in subhumid and humid monsoon regions will affect the blue water supply downstream but not the plant available green water although shading will decrease yield in the immediate surroundings of the eucalyptus trees.
Reservoir sedimentation is a significant issue that shortens reservoir life and impacts operations such as irrigation, hydropower, and drinking water supply because it significantly reduces the ...reservoir’s initial capacity. Information on changes in the storage capacity is required to reduce the risk of reservoir sustainability. This study was conducted on the Angereb reservoir in the sub-humid region of Ethiopia, in the Upper Blue Nile Basin. Bathymetric surveys and ArcGIS 10.8 were used to estimate the sedimentation and service life of the Angereb reservoir. A Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN) surface was developed from the survey data to estimate the volume of the reservoir. Based on the findings of this bathymetry a total of 2.18 Mm
3
of sediment was deposited on the reservoir bed between 2007 to 2022. Storage capacity was decreased by 62.28% in 16 years of operation and caused an average annual volume reduction of 3.9%. The sediment yield (SY) and specific sediment yield (SSY) of the Angereb watershed revealed 192715.5 and 170312.5 m
3
year
−1
and 3043.2 and 2689.4-ton km
−2
y
−1
for trap efficiencies of 70.1 and 80% calculated with two methods, respectively. The SSY has increased by about 50.3% to the minimum and 70.1% to the maximum indicating more degradation of the watershed in sixteen years. The gross storage capacity loss of the reservoir was about 75% which was 5.3 Mm
3
in 1997 and reduced to 1.32 Mm
3
in 2022 with an annual reduction of 2.9% in storage capacity. The reservoir will be filled up by sediment in 7 years if the incoming sediment remains the same in the future. These findings will serve as a call for action in the watershed and a foundation for managing the accumulated sedimentation in the Angereb reservoir and for developing sediment control and management strategies for similar reservoirs.
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