This work describes a new methodology for integrated decision analysis in the development and management of petroleum fields considering reservoir simulation, risk analysis, history matching, ...uncertainty reduction, representative models, and production strategy selection under uncertainty. Based on the concept of closed-loop reservoir management, we establish 12 steps to assist engineers in model updating and production optimization under uncertainty. The methodology is applied to UNISIM-I-D, a benchmark case based on the Namorado field in the Campos Basin, Brazil. The results show that the method is suitable for use in practical applications of complex reservoirs in different field stages (development and management). First, uncertainty is characterized in detail and then scenarios are generated using an efficient sampling technique, which reduces the number of evaluations and is suitable for use with numerical reservoir simulation. We then perform multi-objective history-matching procedures, integrating static data (geostatistical realizations generated using reservoir information) and dynamic data (well production and pressure) to reduce uncertainty and thus provide a set of matched models for production forecasts. We select a small set of Representative Models (RMs) for decision risk analysis, integrating reservoir, economic and other uncertainties to base decisions on risk-return techniques. We optimize the production strategies for (1) each individual RM to obtain different specialized solutions for field development and (2) all RMs simultaneously in a probabilistic procedure to obtain a robust strategy. While the second approach ensures the best performance under uncertainty, the first provides valuable insights for the expected value of information and flexibility analyses. Finally, we integrate reservoir and production systems to ensure realistic production forecasts. This methodology uses reservoir simulations, not proxy models, to reliably predict field performance. The proposed methodology is efficient, easy-to-use and compatible with real-time operations, even in complex cases where the computational time is restrictive.
Abstract Objectives Hearing loss is a condition that interferes with the development of the child at a cognitive and language level. Therefore, early diagnosis of deafness is important for ...(re)habilitation, namely through the use of cochlear implant (CI). The present study aimed at screening CI Portuguese individuals for the presence of mutations in the genes GJB2 and GJB6 (DFNB1 locus ), and searching a possible correlation between the genotype and the oral habilitation outcome following implantation. Methods Our sample included 117 CI individuals implanted longer than 5 years. Sequencing of GJB2 entire coding region was first performed. The presence of deletions del( GJB6 -D13S1830) and del( GJB6 -D13S1854) was subsequently tested by multiplex PCR. To assess the oral outcome of these individuals, a global score is calculated through a formula that integrates the results of a battery of speech and audiological tests routinely used in ORL services. This global oral performance score was used to test whether individuals with DFNB1-associated deafness perform significantly better than individuals without DFNB1-associated deafness. Results In 35% of the cases, deafness was clearly associated to DFNB1. The most common mutated allele was c.35delG (85%). Other variants have also been found, namely p.Gly130Ala, p.Asn206Ser, p.Val37Ile, p.Glu47X, p.Arg184Trp, p.Trp24X and the two common GJB6 deletions, del( GJB6 -D13S1854) and del( GJB6 -D13S1830), the last one identified for the first time in our population. Regarding the oral outcome, after testing the homogeneity of the two groups it could be observed that, in mean, the individuals with DFNB1-associated deafness perform significantly better ( p = 0.012) than the individuals without DFNB1-associated deafness. Discussion and conclusion This first screening of DFNB1 genes in the Portuguese CI population provides clear evidence of the high proportion of DFNB1-associated deafness amongst the Portuguese implanted individuals. DFNB1 status is significantly associated to higher oral performance scores, with DFNB1 individuals performing, on average, 6% better than the individuals without DFNB1-associated deafness.
Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Portugal was rapidly implemented by the National Institute of Health in the early stages of the COVID-19 epidemic, in collaboration with more than 50 ...laboratories distributed nationwide.
By applying recent phylodynamic models that allow integration of individual-based travel history, we reconstructed and characterized the spatio-temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 introductions and early dissemination in Portugal.
We detected at least 277 independent SARS-CoV-2 introductions, mostly from European countries (namely the United Kingdom, Spain, France, Italy, and Switzerland), which were consistent with the countries with the highest connectivity with Portugal. Although most introductions were estimated to have occurred during early March 2020, it is likely that SARS-CoV-2 was silently circulating in Portugal throughout February, before the first cases were confirmed.
Here we conclude that the earlier implementation of measures could have minimized the number of introductions and subsequent virus expansion in Portugal. This study lays the foundation for genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Portugal, and highlights the need for systematic and geographically-representative genomic surveillance.
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