Although Africa's share in the global energy system is only small today, ongoing population growth and economic development imply that this can change significantly. Here, we discuss long-term ...energy-system developments in Africa using results of a recent model inter-comparison study on global climate policy. We focus on Africa's role in the wider global energy system and in global climate mitigation. The results show a considerable spread in model outcomes, emphasizing the large uncertainty regarding Africa's energy future. Without climate policy, Africa's share in global energy-related CO2 emissions is projected to increase to 3–23% by 2100. Emissions become significant on a global scale only after 2050. In none of the model projections the international ambition to provide universal modern energy access by 2030 is achieved. Furthermore, although the continent is currently a large net exporter of oil and natural gas, towards 2050 the model projections emphasize that Africa needs most of its resources for its rapidly growing domestic demand. However, the projected rapid expansion of their energy system also implies that Africa gains importance in global mitigation action. An important challenge is to align the increasing investments in the energy system with climate policy and potential revenues from international carbon trading.
•We assess long-term energy developments in Africa using results of six models.•Africa's share in global CO2 emissions is projected to increase to 3–23% by 2100.•The period before 2050 is critical for the transition towards a low carbon future.•Without additional policy no universal access to modern energy services by 2030.•Africa's role as a net fossil fuel exporter is projected to diminish over time.
In this article we analyze how syngas produced in a renewable way can replace fossil‐fuel based syngas production and thereby play an essential role in the decarbonization of industry. We show that ...in essentially all industrial applications renewable H2 and/or CO can replace syngas from fossil fuel feedstocks, and quantify the flows of these chemical building blocks required for the transformation of industry towards a net‐zero emitting sector. We also undertake a techno‐economic analysis, in which we demonstrate that under specific assumptions for the learning rates of some of the key process components, renewable syngas can become cost‐competitive with that produced from fossil fuels. Cost competitiveness, however, only materializes for four of the five routes when natural gas prices are at least around 3 €/GJ and carbon taxes increase from 90 €/tCO2 today to 300 €/tCO2 in 2050.
Renewable syngas can replace fossil‐fuel based syngas and thereby play an essential role in the decarbonization of industry. We quantify H2 and CO flows required for the transformation of industry towards a net‐zero emitting sector. We also undertake a techno‐economic analysis, in which we demonstrate that under specific assumptions for the technology learning curves, several renewable syngas routes can become economically feasible.
This article investigates possible evolution pathways for the transport sector during the 21st century, globally and in Europe, under a climate change control scenario. We attempt to shed light on ...the question how the transport sector should best be decarbonized. We perform our study with the global bottom-up energy systems model TIAM-ECN, a version of the TIAM model that is broadly used for the purpose of developing energy technology and climate policy scenarios, which we adapted for analyzing in particular the transport sector. Given the global aggregated perspective of TIAM-ECN, that in its current version yields at every point in time a single CO2 price for different forms of energy use across geographic regions and economic sectors, it generates a decarbonization process that for the transport sector occurs later in time than for the power sector. This merely reflects that emission reductions are generally cheaper for electricity production than for transportation, and that it is thus cost-minimizing to spend limited financial resources available for CO2 emissions abatement in the power sector first. In our scenarios the use of hydrogen in internal combustion engines and fuel cells, rather than electricity as energy carrier and batteries to store it, gradually becomes the dominant transport technology. This outcome is in agreement with some recent publications but is at loggerheads with the current popularity of the electric car. Based on sensitivity analysis we conclude that even if the establishment of a hydrogen infrastructure proves about an order of magnitude more costly than modeled in our base case, electricity based transportation only broadly emerges if simultaneously also the costs of electric cars go down by at least 40% with respect to our reference costs. One of the explanations for why the electric car is today, by e.g. entrepreneurs, often considered the supposed winner amongst multiple future transportation options is that the decision horizon of many analysts is no more than a few decades, instead of a full century. Electric cars fit better the current infrastructure than hydrogen fueled vehicles, so that from a short time perspective (covering the next decade or two) investments are not optimally spent by establishing an extensive hydrogen distribution network. Hence the path-dependency created by the present existence of a vast power transmission and distribution network can make electricity the most efficient choice for transportation, but only if the time frame considered is short. Electric transportation generally proves the more expensive alternative in our long-term perspective, except when electric car costs are assumed to drop substantially.
•In our approach transportation decarbonizes later than e.g. power production.•Hydrogen becomes the dominant transport fuel during the 2nd half of the century.•Electricity dominates if electric car costs go down by more than an extra 40%.•This holds even if H2 infrastructure proves much more costly than assumed today.
Top-down CGE models are used to assess the economic impacts of climate change policies. However, these models do not represent the technologies and sources of greenhouse gas emissions as detailed as ...bottom-up energy system models. Linking a top-down CGE model with a bottom-up energy system model assures macroeconomic consistency while accounting for a detailed representation of energy and emission flows. While there is ample literature regarding the linking process, the corresponding details and underlying assumptions are barely described in detail. The present paper describes a step-by-step soft-linking process and its underlying assumptions, using the Netherlands as a case study. This soft-linking process increases the Dutch energy demand levels in 2050 by 19.5% on average compared to assumed exogenous levels. Moreover, the GDP in 2050 reduces by 5.5% compared to the baseline economic scenario. Furthermore, we identified high energy prices as the primary cause of this GDP reduction in the soft-linking process.
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•We explain the process of soft-linking a macroeconomic and an energy system model.•We demonstrate the significance of soft-linking in the Dutch energy-economy system.•Linking results in 19.5% higher energy demand levels compared to exogenous levels.•Soft-linking reduces the GDP by 5.5% compared to the baseline economic scenario.•High energy prices of the energy model are the primary cause of the GDP reduction.
Technological innovation is fundamental for rendering the energy economy cleaner and more efficient with concomitant economic, developmental, and environmental benefits. This paper discusses aspects ...of R&D and ‘learning-by-doing,’ the main contributors to technological change that are complementary yet inter-linked. The relationship between the level of national energy R&D investments and changes in the trajectory of the country's energy system is complex; targeted efforts to promote deployment of new energy technologies play a major role in translating the results of R&D activities to changes in the energy system. Learning-by-doing is an important element of deployment, but it remains largely poorly understood. Hence this phenomenon needs to be ‘unpacked’ and its various aspects analyzed in detail, so as to allow better design of early deployment efforts to enhance learning gains. This paper highlights how public R&D and deployment efforts must work in tandem to expand the portfolio, and realize the potential, of new and improved energy technologies.
Based on employment factors derived from a recent review of publications investigating opportunities for work associated with the diffusion of renewable energy technology, we here present an analysis ...of the potential for renewable energy jobs in the Middle East. We use energy system optimisation results from the regionally disaggregated TIAM-ECN model as input to our study. This integrated assessment model is utilised to inspect the energy technology requirements for meeting a stringent global climate policy that achieves a stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere with a maximum additional radiative forcing of 2.9W/m2. This climate control target implies a massive deployment of renewable energy in the Middle East, with wind and solar power accounting for approximately 60% of total electricity supply in 2050: 900TWh of an overall level of 1525TWh would be generated from 210GW of installed renewable energy capacity by the middle of the century. For this pervasive renewables diffusion scenario for the Middle East we estimate a total required local work force of ultimately about 155,000 direct and 115,000 indirect jobs, based on assumptions regarding which components of the respective wind and solar energy technologies can be manufactured in the region itself. All jobs generated through installation and O&M activities are assumed to be domestic.
•An analysis of the potential for renewable energy jobs in the Middle East is presented.•With the TIAM-ECN model we inspect the technology requirements for meeting a radiative forcing of 2.9 W/m2.•Wind and solar power account for approximately 60% of total electricity supply in 2050.•We estimate a total required local work force of ultimately about 155,000 direct and 115,000 indirect jobs.•Manufacturing jobs are assumed to be partly local, while installation and O&M jobs are all domestic.
We quantify in more detail than earlier studies the cost trade-offs of establishing import-export links between Europe and North Africa for two quintessential energy carriers needed for the energy ...transition: electricity and hydrogen. Using the TIAM-ECN model, we show under what assumptions Europe will make a net energy system cost gain or, inversely, pay a net price for exploiting such interlinkages. We find that allowing for trade of renewable energy between Europe and North Africa substantially reduces the EU's domestic renewable energy capacity investments needed to implement its Green Deal and Fit for 55 Programme. In addition to creating import-export scenarios for electricity and hydrogen across the Mediterranean and investigating the cost implications of a European-African energy partnership until 2050, we perform a detailed sensitivity analysis regarding possible technological developments and sectoral shifts, as well as vis-à-vis potential cost, sectoral and technical asymmetries between Europe and North Africa. We introduce a new concept in energy analysis, autarky penalty, which is the price paid by a region for restricting energy trade with its neighbors. If domestic hydrogen production from solar and wind energy through electrolysis is constrained, Europe's autarky penalty may increase to 30 billion $ annually by 2050.
•We study renewables trade between Europe and North Africa with an energy system model.•We project import-export pathways for electricity and hydrogen across the Mediterranean.•We investigate the cost implications of a European-African energy partnership until 2050.•We undertake a sensitivity analysis vis-à-vis technological developments and sectoral shifts.•If domestic REN H2 production is constrained, Europe's autarky penalty may become 30 G$/yr.
This study provides a quantitative analysis of future energy–climate developments at the global level using two well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN. The ...research aims to explore the results of these IAMs and identify avenues for improvement to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The study focuses on the effects of varying assumptions for key model drivers, including carbon prices, technology costs, and global energy prices, within the context of stringent decarbonization policies. Diagnostic scenarios are utilized to assess the behavior of the models under varying exogenous assumptions for key drivers, aiming to verify the accuracy and reliability of the models and identify areas for optimization. The findings of this research demonstrate that both PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN exhibit similar responses to carbon pricing, with PROMETHEUS being more sensitive to this parameter than TIAM-ECN. The results highlight the importance of carbon pricing as an effective policy tool to drive decarbonization efforts. Additionally, the study reveals that variations in technology costs and global energy prices significantly impact the outcomes of the models. The identified sensitivities and responses of the IAMs to key model drivers offer guidance for policymakers to refine their policy decisions and develop effective strategies aligned with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. By understanding the behavior of the models under different assumptions, policymakers can make informed decisions to optimize decarbonization pathways and enhance the likelihood of meeting global climate goals.
The economics of CO₂ capture and storage in relation to the possibility of leakage of CO₂ from geological reservoirs once this greenhouse gas has been stored artificially underground will be among ...the main determinants of whether CCS can significantly contribute to a deep cut in global CO₂ emissions. This paper presents an analysis of the economic and climatic implications of the large-scale use of CCS for reaching a stringent climate change control target, when geological CO₂ leakage is accounted for. The natural scientific uncertainties regarding the rates of possible leakage of CO₂ from geological reservoirs are likely to remain large for a long time to come. We present a qualitative description, a concise analytical inspection, as well as a more detailed integrated assessment model, proffering insight into the economics of geological CO₂ storage and leakage. Our model represents three main CO₂ emission reduction options: energy savings, a carbon to non-carbon energy transition and the use of CCS. We find CCS to remain a valuable option even with CO₂ leakage of a few percent per year, well above the maximum seepage rates that we think are likely from a geo-scientific point of view.
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