We assess the empirical importance of changes in income and relative prices for structural transformation in the postwar United States. We explain two natural approaches to the data: sectors may be ...categories of final expenditure or value added; e.g., the service sector may be the final expenditure on services or the value added from service industries. We estimate preferences for each approach and find that with final expenditure income effects are the dominant force behind structural transformation, whereas with value-added categories price effects are more important. We show how the inputoutput structure of the United States can reconcile these findings.
We propose forecasting separately the three components of stock market returns—the dividend–price ratio, earnings growth, and price–earnings ratio growth—the sum-of-the-parts (SOP) method. Our method ...exploits the different time series persistence of the components and obtains out-of-sample
R-squares (compared with the historical mean) of more than 1.3% with monthly data and 13.4% with yearly data. This compares with typically negative
R-squares obtained in a similar experiment with predictive regressions. The performance of the SOP method comes mainly from the dividend–price ratio and earnings growth components, and the robustness of the method is due to its low estimation error. An investor who timed the market using our method would have had a Sharpe ratio gain of 0.3.
Structural vector autoregressions give conflicting results on the effects of technology shocks on hours. The results depend crucially on the assumed data generating process for hours per capita. We ...show that the standard measure of hours per capita and productivity have significant low-frequency movements that are the source of the conflicting results. Hodrick-Prescott (HP)-filtered hours per capita produce results consistent with those obtained when hours are assumed to have a unit root. We show that important sources of the low-frequency movements in the standard measure are sectoral shifts in hours and the changing age composition of the working-age population. When we control for these low- frequency components to determine the effect of technology shocks on hours using long-run restrictions we get one consistent answer: hours decline in the short run in response to a positive technology shock. We further extend the analysis by examining the effects of demographic controls on the impulse responses to investment- specific technology shocks. Our results are less conclusive.
Coe N. M., Johns J. and Ward K. Transforming the Japanese labour market: deregulation and the rise of temporary staffing, Regional Studies. The Japanese employment system has undergone significant ...structural change since the early 1990s. Widespread deregulation and industrial restructuring have increased the number of non-regular workers in Japan, including temporary or 'dispatch' workers supplied by temporary staffing agencies, who numbered some 1.6 million and 2.8% of the total working population by 2007. This paper charts the evolution of the Japanese temporary staffing industry in three stages from 1947 to the present. These phases are delimited by two important regulatory changes with respect to temporary staffing: partial legalization in 1986, and full legalization in 1999. The paper argues that a distinct Japanese temporary staffing industry has been produced through a multi-institutional field involving the interaction of a range of actors. While government deregulation has been the key shaper of the industry's emergence, other actors, including labour unions, transnational agencies, and domestic agencies, have played important roles at various times. While the growth of the industry is best interpreted as a gradual evolution of the traditional employment system, the size of temporary staffing employment - and non-regular working more generally - has now reached the stage where it has become a significant political and regulatory issue.
Coe N. M., Johns J. et Ward K. La transformation du marché du travail japonais: la déréglementation et l'essor de l'emploi intérimaire, Regional Studies. Le marché du travail japonais a connu d'importants changements structurels depuis le début des années 1990. La déréglementation généralisée et la restructuration industrielle ont augmenté le nombre de travailleurs irréguliers au Japon, y compris les intérimaires fournis par les missions d'intérim, dont quelque 1,6 millions, représentant 2,8% de la population active globale en 2007. Cet article cherche à tracer l'évolution des missions d'intérim au Japon à trois étapes, de 1947 jusqu'au présent. Ces étapes sont délimitées en fonction de deux importants changements réglementaires quant à l'interim: la légalisation partielle en 1986, et la légalisation pleine en 1999. On affirme qu'une mission d'intérim distincte a été établie au Japon à partir d'un domaine à institutions multiples, impliquant la participation d'une gamme d'acteurs. Alors que la déréglemetation s'avère la force motrice clé de l'essor de l'intérim, d'autres acteurs, y compris les syndicats ouvriers, les agences extérieures et intérieures, ont joué d'importants rôles à diverses reprises. Tandis que l'on peut interpréter l'essor de l'intérim comme l'évolution régulière d'un marché du travail classique, l'importance de l'effectif intérimaire - et de l'emploi irrégulier en général - est arrivé au point où il est devenu une importante question de politique et de réglementation.
Intérim Japon Travailleurs irréguliers Déréglementation Changement institutionnel
Coe N. M., Johns J. und Ward K. Der Wandel des japanischen Arbeitsmarkts: Deregulierung und die Zunahme von Zeitarbeit, Regional Studies. Seit den frühen neunziger Jahren hat der japanische Arbeitsmarkt signifikante strukturelle Änderungen erfahren. Durch eine umfassende Deregulierung und industrielle Umstrukturierung hat sich die Anzahl der unregelmäßig beschäftigten Arbeitnehmer in Japan erhöht; hierzu gehören auch die Zeit- bzw. Vertragsarbeitskräfte von Arbeitsvermittlungen, deren Anzahl sich im Jahr 2007 auf über 1,6 Millionen bzw. 2,8% der gesamten erwerbstätigen Bevölkerung belief. In diesem Beitrag wird die Entwicklung der japanischen Zeitarbeitsbranche in drei Phasen von 1947 bis heute beschrieben. Diese Phasen werden durch zwei wichtige Gesetzesänderungen hinsichtlich der Zeitarbeit definiert: einer teilweisen Legalisierung im Jahr 1986 und einer vollständigen Legalisierung im Jahr 1999. In diesem Beitrag wird argumentiert, dass auf einem multiinstitutionellen Feld mit den Wechselwirkungen eines breiten Spektrums von Akteuren eine charakteristische japanische Zeitarbeitsbranche entstanden ist. Der wichtigste Faktor für das Entstehen dieser Branche war zwar die staatliche Deregulierung, doch auch andere Akteure, wie zum Beispiel Gewerkschaften, transnationale Agenturen und einheimische Agenturen, haben zu verschiedenen Zeiten wichtige Rollen gespielt. Das Wachstum der Branche lässt sich am besten als allmähliche Evolution des traditionellen Arbeitsmarkts interpretieren, doch die Zeitarbeit - und generell die unregelmäßigen Arbeitsverhältnisse - haben inzwischen einen Umfang erreicht, der sie zu einem wichtigen politischen und behördlichen Thema macht.
Zeitarbeit Japan Unregelmäßig beschäftigte Arbeitnehmer Deregulierung Institutionelle Veränderung
Coe N. M., Johns J. y Ward K. Transformación del mercado laboral japonés: desregulación y aumento del personal temporal, Regional Studies. El sistema laboral japonés ha sufrido un cambio estructural significativo desde principios de los noventa. La extensa desregulación y reestructuración industrial han aumentado el número de trabajadores no regulares en Japón, incluyendo los trabajadores temporales o 'migratorios' suministrados por las agencias de personal temporal, que representaban unos 1,6 millones de trabajadores y un 2,8% del total de la población laboral en 2007. En este artículo presentamos la evolución de la industria japonesa de personal temporal en tres etapas desde 1947 hasta ahora. Estas fases están delimitadas por dos importantes cambios regulatorios con respecto a los trabajadores temporales: la legalización parcial en 1986, y la legalización completa en 1999. En este artículo sostenemos que en Japón se ha creado una industria diferente de trabajadores temporales mediante un campo multi-institucional en el que interaccionan muchos actores diferentes. Aunque el factor más importante de la aparición de esta industria ha sido la desregulación gubernamental, también otros actores, incluyendo los sindicatos, las agencias transnacionales y las agencias nacionales, han desempeñado importantes papeles en momentos diferentes. Si bien el crecimiento de la industria se interpreta mejor como una evolución gradual del sistema laboral tradicional, el número de los trabajadores temporales, y en general de los trabajadores no regulares, ahora ha llegado a la fase en que se ha convertido en uno de los temas más importantes en el ámbito político y regulatorio.
Personal temporal Japón Trabajadores no regulares Desregulación Cambio institucional
This paper addresses the fluctuations in real metal prices: are they simply random variations or do they display some degree of cyclicality? This study identifies peaks and troughs in the inflation ...adjusted prices for 14 metals, using monthly average data from January 1947 through December 2007. Duration dependence testing, which is performed on the expansions, contractions, and full cycles, finds many cases in which the duration of these phases are not purely random and have some degree of cyclicality. Additional characterization show that contractions generally persist longer than expansions (in contrast to macroeconomic cycles) that long-term real prices have been trendless, and that the amplitude of price changes over the phases has little regularity. For those performing this type of analysis, the appendices explain the procedures for dating turning points and assessing duration dependence.
OBITUARIES: George Douglas Pinker Fraser, Alasdair; Loeffler, Frank
BMJ. British medical journal (International ed.),
06/2007, Letnik:
334, Številka:
7608
Journal Article
Recenzirano
An obituary for Sir George Pinker, who died on Apr 29, 2007, is presented. Pinker is remembered as surgeon gynecologist to the Queen, supervising nine royal births. He is also remembered as a past ...president of the Royal Society of Medicine.
Relative price trends mean that monetary policy cannot stabilize the nominal prices of all consumption categories. If prices are sticky, monetary policy must then trade off distortions within ...different categories; more weight should be placed on stabilizing prices for which adjustment entails greater distortions. With exogenous price stickiness, a simple model calibrated to U.S. data implies that slight deflation is optimal even absent money-demand considerations. If price stickiness is endogenous (because of fixed costs of adjustment), small inflation or small deflation can be optimal, depending on whether demand conditions or price adjustment costs vary across sectors.
The relationship between inflation and the output gap can be modelled simply and effectively by including an unobserved random walk component in the model. The dynamic properties match the stylized ...facts and the random walk component satisfies the properties normally required for core inflation. The model may be generalized so as to include a term for the expectation of next period's output, but it is shown that this is difficult to distinguish from the original specification. The model is fitted as a single equation and as part of a bivariate model that includes an equation for Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Fitting the bivariate model highlights some new aspects of Unobserved Components (UC) modelling. Single equation and bivariate models tell a similar story: an output gap 2% above trend is associated with an annual inflation rate that is 1% above core inflation.
This article proposes a method to identify technology and nontechnology shocks that permanently affect labor productivity and applies this method to data for the G7 countries. In most cases, whereas ...technology improvements have negative or weak effects on hours worked, positive permanent nontechnology shocks are expansionary. Permanent nontechnology shocks play an important role in business cycles, particularly in the United States and Japan, and account for 71% of a large reduction in Japan's detrended output from 1991 to 2002. Credit conditions are likely to be an important driver of variations in permanent nontechnology shocks.
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