Este artigo procura reconstituir os principais traços da política econômica durante o governo Geisel (1974-1978), concentrando-se no exame de dois desdobramentos de especial importância. O primeiro ...diz respeito à política macroeconômica voltada aos problemas conjunturais (inflação e balanço de pagamentos). Discute-se o grau de importância atribuído a essa faceta da política econômica bem como os resultados alcançados, distinguindo-se dois períodos marcados por ênfases distintas. O segundo desdobramento refere-se ao II PND, marca fundamental da política econômica do período: o artigo procura apresentar uma leitura crítica de alguns pontos controversos suscitados pela literatura dedicada ao tema.
O Estado e suas razões: o II PND Fonseca, Pedro Cezar Dutra; Monteiro, Sergio Marley Modesto
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy,
2008, Letnik:
28, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Log-linear analyses indicate that, while growth in the size of a renter's family continued to predict the purchase of owner occupied housing in 1978, the composition of the purchasing group changed ...significantly between 1974 and 1978, with childless couples increasing and households with children decreasing. The declines in the latter group occurred primarily among poorer households. (Abstract amended)
This paper presents empirical evidence about the impact on shareholder wealth of legislative events leading to the enactment of the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978. In contrast to prior regulatory ...event studies, this paper examines not only the final legislative enactment but also the Congressional hearings that preceded it. No significant effect on shareholder wealth is indicated when averaged across all airline firms and all legislative events. Impact of deregulation, however, was expected to be different for trunk airlines than for local airlines. Moreover, market expectations likely changed with the change in the political climate during the course of deregulation deliberations, from an industry financial health emphasis under a Republican (Ford) administration to a consumer welfare emphasis under a Democratic (Carter) administration. We find that trunk airlines experienced significant positive abnormal returns during the Ford administration, but negative abnormal returns during the Carter administration. In contrast, local airlines exhibited significant negative abnormal returns during both the Ford and Carter eras. Systematic risk of both trunk and local airlines also increased with the change in the political climate.
In an effort to establish that rates of economic depreciation vary spatially, estimates of metropolitan area specific rates of economic depreciation for residential real estate are obtained using the ...hedonic price methodology. Separate hedonic equations are estimated for owner-occupied and renter-occupied properties for certain metropolitan regions. The same hedonic equation is used to estimate tenure specific depreciation rates. The data were drawn from 59 metropolitan areas surveyed by the Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) Annual Housing Survey over the period 1974-1977. Rates of depreciation are compared across metropolitan areas. It is found that rents and values consistently decrease with age. On average, rents fall at a nearly constant rate, and values fall at a declining rate. Several SMSAs exhibited significant deviations from the average depreciation patterns. Depreciation rates and discounts for age differ among SMSAs. The relative price of older dwellings is found to differ between tenure groups.
Internal Federal Reserve documents are used to evaluate staff forecasts of M1, nominal gross national product (GNP), real GNP, the GNP deflator, and net exports in the 1970s. Since there was a ...deemphasis on international linkages in the formulation, implementation and monitoring of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve during most of the 1970s, also examined is the extent to which international factors aid in explaining forecast errors for the money stock and output and prices for the turbulent 1974-1978 period. Results suggest that there was a striking deterioration in the Federal Reserve staff's money stock forecasts after the introduction of floating exchange rates. The nonfinancial forecast errors remained large but were basically state-of-the-art. With both bias and autocorrelation apparent in the nonfinancial forecasts, a study of the effect of ignoring the foreign sector is performed; it is suggested that this is of limited usefulness in explaining staff errors from 1974 to 1978.
This paper uses data from Annual Housing Surveys to investigate the relationship between growth in family size and the move from rented to owner occupied housing in the mid and late 1970s. A series ...of studies conducted in the 1950s and 1960s established that growth in the size of the family triggered moves from rented to owner occupied housing. Changes in house price inflation during the 1970s may have altered the social and economic conditions associated with a move from rented to owner occupied housing. Log-linear analyses of data from the 1974 and 1978 Annual Housing Surveys indicate that, while growth in the size of a renter's family continued to predict the purchase of owner occupied housing in 1978, the composition of the purchasing group changed significantly between 1974 and 1978, with childless couples increasing and households with children decreasing. The declines in the latter group occurred primarily among poorer households. The implications of these changes for the life cycle — housing cycle model of residential mobility are explored.
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