Modern political activity develops on the basis of disclosure and partial correction of previously developed algorithms and approaches, which significantly increases the practical significance of the ...historical and political science methodology, with the help of which it is possible to identify the content, directions of evolution, the prospects for changing traditional models and phenomena. The article attempts to study the essence of the security phenomenon in the context of currently emerging paradigms. The working hypothesis was the assumption that the transformational processes of the 1970’s, which subsequently experienced a «security swing», their elements, system hierarchy and logic of representation continue to persist in the current Western model, since multi-factor and successful transformations slow down change. As a result of the study, disparities in the substantive definition of security goals, contradictions between political goals and processes were revealed, a working hypothesis was confirmed, and problems that require further study, including through the expansion of the empirical base, were outlined. The article is written mainly on the materials of the three «White Papers» of the Bundeswehr. It is controversial in nature, but already at this stage of the study has a practical value, reflected in four recommendation-prognostic conclusions.
Abstract
On 27 February 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz addressed the Bundestag and announced a watershed moment (Zeitenwende) for Germany's conduct of foreign affairs. Against the backdrop of ...the historical pillars of German foreign policy, this article reviews the core implications of the Zeitenwende doctrine. It analyses how the new policy continued or transformed traditional notions underpinning Germany's external relations: Westbindung (integration into the West) and European integration, multilateralism, the pursuit of a rules-based international order and NATO membership, hesitant leadership, Ostpolitik and Wandel durch Handel (transformation through trade), as well as a foreign policy not relying on military means. It argues that Zeitenwende represented a break with some traditional notions, such as Ostpolitik and Wandel durch Handel, and to some extent the non-military foreign policy. However, Zeitenwende also reconfirmed other traditions: Westbindung, a commitment to multilateralism and the rules-based order, as well as the reluctance to assert German leadership. With Zeitenwende, Germany remained firmly committed to the EU and NATO as the country acknowledged that it must do more for its own, and for Europe's, security. Zeitenwende represented Germany's coming to terms with, and final acceptance of, the realities of the post-Cold War European order.
This article offers an analysis of the scenarios of outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war and their impact on European security. The basis of each scenario is a definition of the interests of both Russia ...and Ukraine in this war, a hypothetical description of the assumptions of their fulfilment (full success of one or the other country in the war or partial success) and, at the same time, the expected impact of the full or partial success of one or the other country, i.e., direct actors of the war, on the international order. The scenario analysis is based on an examination of the course of fighting in the period from the beginning of the Russian invasion on 24 February (until the end of November) to identify the degree of probability of the fulfilment of each scenario.
The 'regulatory state' has prevailed in almost every sector of European public policy. The provision of security, however, is still widely viewed as the domain of the 'positive state', which rests on ...political authority and autonomous capacities. Challenging this presumption, we argue that expertise - as foundation of authority - and rules - as policy instruments - also shape the provision of European security by national and, in particular, supranational 'regulatory security states', namely the European Union (EU). We lay out a framework for mapping the uneven and contested rise of European regulatory security states; analyzing drivers and constraints of security state reforms; and grasping the implications of the regulatory security state for the effectiveness and democratic legitimacy of European security policy-making. We advance the research program on the regulatory state and contribute to an innovative understanding of who governs security in Europe's multi-level polity, by what means, and on what legitimatory grounds.
Over the last decades, cybersecurity has become a top priority for the European Union (EU). As a contribution to scholarship on the 'regulatory security state', we analyze how the European Union ...Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA), emerged and stabilized as the EU's key agency for cybersecurity. We use data from policy documents, secondary sources, and semi-structured interviews to show how ENISA struggled to become a relevant actor by carving out a specific role for itself. In particular, we show how challenging it was for the agency to acquire epistemic authority. Although the trajectory of ENISA supports attempts to govern through regulation, it also shows that its role was never a given, only functions as part of a larger whole, and continues to be subject to change. Our article indicates that the study of security governance must remain ontologically flexible to capture hybrid forms and political struggles.
Speech held by Dr Åsa Gustafsson at the Åland Parliament Conference 'Demilitarisation and neutralisation - A stabilising force for peace in the region'
Italy used to have a conciliatory approach towards Russia when dealing with international crises, but this outlook changed with the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. This study aims to explain ...this puzzle by examining Italy's foreign policy change in response to three Russian conflicts in the post-Soviet space: Georgia (2008), Crimea (2014), and Ukraine (2022). In particular, this study analyzes changes in Italy's approach to sanctioning Russia both in terms of substantial and symbolic differences. To explain these changes, the study focuses on three main factors at the international level: Italy's position as a middle power in the international system, the level of economic interdependence between Italy and Russia, and the conflict intensity. By investigating these factors within three case studies, the empirical analysis suggests that Italy's position as a middle power was the main factor defining Italy’s substantial approach to Russia, which was in line with the common EU response to the three Russian conflicts. However, Italy's middle-power position also gave the country room to maneuver its symbolic approaches to Russia, which shifted from a soft approach to a rather hard one throughout the three conflicts. Empirical results indicate that this symbolic shift was mostly caused by a decrease in Italy's economic interdependence with Russia and the heightened intensity of the conflict in Ukraine.
The European Union (EU) enlargement went through strong processes of Europeanisation that, apart from revealing the regulatory power of the EU, reflect its ability to transform the identity of those ...countries candidates to membership. Considered as one of the most important and successful instruments of foreign and security action, the succeeding enlargement policies to the East, particularly those of 2004 and 2007, represented a significant contribution for the establishment of an extended security community. An assessment on the countries of the West Balkans is presented, since their processes of accession to the EU now extend for more than a decade. The undeniable geopolitical and geostrategic significance, shown throughout history by the risks of spreading the internal conflicts across the European borders, make this region one of the most vital of the EU’s periphery, to its security. In spite of this significance, the current “enlargement fatigue”, motivated largely by the lack of consensus amongst member-states, drives away the countries of the Balkans from veering towards the EU, thereby rendering them more susceptible to the influence of foreign players, particularly that of China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey. In that context, it is argued that the EU, by setting aside the enlargement politic to the countries of the West Balkans, gives a deeply negative sign to the region, moving them away from the criteria established for the europeanization processes reached so far, and as a consequence, placing themselves under de influence of foreign players, circumstances which jeopardise the stability in the EU periphery.
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