Reliable prediction of surround vehicle motion is a critical requirement for path planning for autonomous vehicles. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for surround vehicle maneuver ...classification and motion prediction that exploits multiple cues, namely, the estimated motion of vehicles, an understanding of typical motion patterns of freeway traffic and intervehicle interaction. We report our results in terms of maneuver classification accuracy and mean and median absolute error of predicted trajectories against the ground truth for real traffic data collected using vehicle mounted sensors on freeways. An ablative analysis is performed to analyze the relative importance of each cue for trajectory prediction. Additionally, an analysis of execution time for the components of the framework is presented. Finally, we present multiple case studies analyzing the outputs of our model for complex traffic scenarios.
•The method combines the HMMs and BF to recognize a driver’s lane changing intention.•The HMMs are developed based on speech recognition models.•Naturalistic data are used to train and validate the ...proposed algorithm.•The proposed algorithm can get good results both on recognition ratio and time.
Poor driving habits such as not using turn signals when changing lanes present a major challenge to advanced driver assistance systems that rely on turn signals. To address this problem, we propose a novel algorithm combining the hidden Markov model (HMM) and Bayesian filtering (BF) techniques to recognize a driver’s lane changing intention. In the HMM component, the grammar definition is inspired by speech recognition models, and the output is a preliminary behavior classification. As for the BF component, the final behavior classification is produced based on the current and preceding outputs of the HMMs. A naturalistic data set is used to train and validate the proposed algorithm. The results reveal that the proposed HMM–BF framework can achieve a recognition accuracy of 93.5% and 90.3% for right and left lane changing, respectively, which is a significant improvement compared with the HMM-only algorithm. The recognition time results show that the proposed algorithm can recognize a behavior correctly at an early stage.
Markov (state) models (MSMs) and related models of molecular kinetics have recently received a surge of interest as they can systematically reconcile simulation data from either a few long or many ...short simulations and allow us to analyze the essential metastable structures, thermodynamics, and kinetics of the molecular system under investigation. However, the estimation, validation, and analysis of such models is far from trivial and involves sophisticated and often numerically sensitive methods. In this work we present the open-source Python package PyEMMA (http://pyemma.org) that provides accurate and efficient algorithms for kinetic model construction. PyEMMA can read all common molecular dynamics data formats, helps in the selection of input features, provides easy access to dimension reduction algorithms such as principal component analysis (PCA) and time-lagged independent component analysis (TICA) and clustering algorithms such as k-means, and contains estimators for MSMs, hidden Markov models, and several other models. Systematic model validation and error calculation methods are provided. PyEMMA offers a wealth of analysis functions such that the user can conveniently compute molecular observables of interest. We have derived a systematic and accurate way to coarse-grain MSMs to few states and to illustrate the structures of the metastable states of the system. Plotting functions to produce a manuscript-ready presentation of the results are available. In this work, we demonstrate the features of the software and show new methodological concepts and results produced by PyEMMA.
Load forecasting is crucial for multiple energy management tasks such as scheduling generation capacity, planning supply and demand, and minimizing energy trade costs. Such relevance has increased ...even more in recent years due to the integration of renewable energies, electric cars, and microgrids. Conventional load forecasting techniques obtain single-value load forecasts by exploiting consumption patterns of past load demand. However, such techniques cannot assess intrinsic uncertainties in load demand, and cannot capture dynamic changes in consumption patterns. To address these problems, this paper presents a method for probabilistic load forecasting based on the adaptive online learning of hidden Markov models. We propose learning and forecasting techniques with theoretical guarantees, and experimentally assess their performance in multiple scenarios. In particular, we develop adaptive online learning techniques that update model parameters recursively, and sequential prediction techniques that obtain probabilistic forecasts using the most recent parameters. The performance of the method is evaluated using multiple datasets corresponding with regions that have different sizes and display assorted time-varying consumption patterns. The results show that the proposed method can significantly improve the performance of existing techniques for a wide range of scenarios.
Prognostics and health management (PHM) play a key role in increasing the reliability and safety of systems especially in key sectors (military, aeronautical, aerospace, nuclear, etc.). This paper ...presents a new methodology which combines data-driven and experience-based approaches for the PHM of roller bearings. The proposed methodology uses time domain features extracted from vibration signals as health indicators. The degradation states in bearings are detected by an unsupervised classification technique called artificial ant clustering. The imminence of the next degradation state in bearings is given by hidden Markov models, and the estimation of the remaining time before the next degradation state is given by the multistep time series prediction and the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. A set of experimental data collected from bearing failures is used to validate the proposed methodology. Experimental results show that the use of data-driven and experience-based approaches is a suitable strategy to improve the PHM of roller bearings.
Reducing the interference noise in a monaural noisy speech signal has been a challenging task for many years. Compared to traditional unsupervised speech enhancement methods, e.g., Wiener filtering, ...supervised approaches, such as algorithms based on hidden Markov models (HMM), lead to higher-quality enhanced speech signals. However, the main practical difficulty of these approaches is that for each noise type a model is required to be trained a priori. In this paper, we investigate a new class of supervised speech denoising algorithms using nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF). We propose a novel speech enhancement method that is based on a Bayesian formulation of NMF (BNMF). To circumvent the mismatch problem between the training and testing stages, we propose two solutions. First, we use an HMM in combination with BNMF (BNMF-HMM) to derive a minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimator for the speech signal with no information about the underlying noise type. Second, we suggest a scheme to learn the required noise BNMF model online, which is then used to develop an unsupervised speech enhancement system. Extensive experiments are carried out to investigate the performance of the proposed methods under different conditions. Moreover, we compare the performance of the developed algorithms with state-of-the-art speech enhancement schemes using various objective measures. Our simulations show that the proposed BNMF-based methods outperform the competing algorithms substantially.
Conventional approaches to statistical parametric speech synthesis typically use decision tree-clustered context-dependent hidden Markov models (HMMs) to represent probability densities of speech ...parameters given texts. Speech parameters are generated from the probability densities to maximize their output probabilities, then a speech waveform is reconstructed from the generated parameters. This approach is reasonably effective but has a couple of limitations, e.g. decision trees are inefficient to model complex context dependencies. This paper examines an alternative scheme that is based on a deep neural network (DNN). The relationship between input texts and their acoustic realizations is modeled by a DNN. The use of the DNN can address some limitations of the conventional approach. Experimental results show that the DNN-based systems outperformed the HMM-based systems with similar numbers of parameters.
Dense video captioning aims to generate text descriptions for all events in an untrimmed video. This involves both detecting and describing events. Therefore, all previous methods on dense video ...captioning tackle this problem by building two models, i.e. an event proposal and a captioning model, for these two sub-problems. The models are either trained separately or in alternation. This prevents direct influence of the language description to the event proposal, which is important for generating accurate descriptions. To address this problem, we propose an end-to-end transformer model for dense video captioning. The encoder encodes the video into appropriate representations. The proposal decoder decodes from the encoding with different anchors to form video event proposals. The captioning decoder employs a masking network to restrict its attention to the proposal event over the encoding feature. This masking network converts the event proposal to a differentiable mask, which ensures the consistency between the proposal and captioning during training. In addition, our model employs a self-attention mechanism, which enables the use of efficient non-recurrent structure during encoding and leads to performance improvements. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this end-to-end model on ActivityNet Captions and YouCookII datasets, where we achieved 10.12 and 6.58 METEOR score, respectively.
Falls are a major threat for senior citizens' independent living. Motion sensor technologies and automatic fall detection systems have emerged as a reliable low-cost solution to this challenge. We ...develop a hidden Markov model (HMM) based fall detection system to detect falls automatically using a single motion sensor for real-life home monitoring scenarios. We propose a new representation for acceleration signals in HMMs to avoid feature engineering and developed a sensor orientation calibration algorithm to resolve sensor misplacement issues (misplaced sensor location and misaligned sensor orientation) in real-world scenarios. HMM classifiers are trained to detect falls based on acceleration signal data collected from motion sensors. We collect a dataset from experiments of simulated falls and normal activities and acquired a dataset from a real-world fall repository (FARSEEING) to evaluate our system. Our system achieves positive predictive value of 0.981 and sensitivity of 0.992 on the experiment dataset with 200 fall events and 385 normal activities, and positive predictive value of 0.786 and sensitivity of 1.000 on the real-world fall dataset with 22 fall events and 2618 normal activities. Our system's results significantly outperform benchmark systems, which shows the advantage of our HMM-based fall detection system with sensor orientation calibration. Our fall detection system is able to precisely detect falls in real-life home scenarios with a reasonably low false alarm ratet.
Due to the lack of transparent and friendly human-robot interaction (HRI) interface, as well as various uncertainties, it is usually a challenge to remotely manipulate a robot to accomplish a ...complicated task. To improve the teleoperation performance, we propose a new perception mechanism by integrating a novel learning method to operate the robots in the distance. In order to enhance the perception of the teleoperation system, we utilize a surface electromyogram signal to extract the human operator's muscle activation. As a response to the changes in the external environment, as sensed through haptic and visual feedback, a human operator naturally reacts with various muscle activations. By imitating the human behaviors in task execution, not only motion trajectory but also arm stiffness adjusted by muscle activation, it is expected that the robot would be able to carry out the repetitive tasks autonomously or uncertain tasks with improved intelligence. To this end, we develop a robot learning algorithm based on probability statistics under an integrated framework of the hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) and the Gaussian mixture method. This method is employed to obtain a generative task model based on the robot's trajectory. Then, Gaussian mixture regression based on HSMM is applied to correct the robot trajectory with the reproduced results from the learned task model. The execution procedures consist of a learning phase and a reproduction phase. To guarantee the stability, immersion, and maneuverability of the teleoperation system, a variable gain control method that involves electromyography (EMG) is introduced. Experimental results have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method.
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