Asks why intelligence is it so hard to define, and why there is no systematic theory of intelligence. Systematically develops a new concept of intelligence as a cognitive activity that needs to be ...understood holistically. Shows how classic intelligence analysis is based on an inference between history and the future – and this has led to a restriction in how we can perceive new threats, and new variations of threats. Rethinks intelligence analysis, arguing that good intelligence is based on understanding the threats that appear beyond our experience, and are therefore the most dangerous to society.
Troubled Waterslooks at four dynamics in the Persian Gulf that have contributed to making the region one of the most volatile and tension-filled spots in the world. Mehran Kamrava identifies the four ...dynamics as: the neglect of human dimensions of security, the inherent instability involved in reliance on the United States and the exclusion of Iraq and Iran, the international and security policies pursued by inside and outside actors, and a suite of overlapping security dilemmas. These four factors combine and interact to generate long-term volatility and ongoing tensions within the Persian Gulf.
Through insights from Kamrava's interviews with Gulf elites into policy decisions, the consequences of security dilemmas, the priorities of local players, and the neglect of identity and religion,Troubled Watersexamines the root causes of conflicts and crises that are currently unfolding in the region. As Kamrava demonstrates, each state in the region, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Qatar, has embarked on vigorous security-producing efforts as part of foreign policy, flooding the area with more munitions-thereby increasing insecurity and causing more mistrust in a part of the world that needs no more tension.
