Stuxnet and the Future of Cyber War Farwell, James P.; Rohozinski, Rafal
Survival (London),
02/2011, Letnik:
53, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The discovery in June 2010 that a cyber worm dubbed 'Stuxnet' had struck the Iranian nuclear facility at Natanz suggested that, for cyber war, the future is now. Yet more important is the political ...and strategic context in which new cyber threats are emerging, and the effects the worm has generated in this respect. Perhaps most striking is the confluence between cyber crime and state action. States are capitalising on technology whose development is driven by cyber crime, and perhaps outsourcing cyber attacks to non-attributable third parties, including criminal organisations. Cyber offers great potential for striking at enemies with less risk than using traditional military means. It is unclear how much the Stuxnet program cost, but it was almost certainly less than the cost of single fighter-bomber. Yet if damage from cyber attacks can be quickly repaired, careful strategic thought is required in comparing the cost and benefits of cyber versus traditional military attack. One important benefit of cyber attack may be its greater opportunity to achieve goals such as retarding the Iranian nuclear programme without causing the loss of life or injury to innocent civilians that air strikes would seem more likely to inflict. Nevertheless, cyber attacks do carry a risk of collateral damage, with a risk of political blowback if the attacking parties are identified. Difficulty in identifying a cyber attacker presents multiple headaches for responding. A key strategic risk in cyber attack, finally, lies in potential escalatory responses. Strategies for using cyber weapons like Stuxnet need to take into account that adversaries may attempt to turn them back against us.
The subject of the study is international, national and regional vectors of balanced development of tourism and resort and recreational sphere. Methodology. The study used general scientific methods, ...in particular: theoretical generalization; methods of positive and normative analysis and statistical analysis. The aim is to substantiate the process of balanced development of tourism and resort and recreational sphere using international, national and regional vectors in modern conditions. Conclusion of the study. International experience of balanced tourism development has shown that among the leading countries in tourism are France, USA, China, Spain, Italy, Turkey, Mexico, Thailand. It is emphasized that these countries are annually visited by 30 to 100 million tourists. It was noted that France ranks first among the countries that attract tourists, the tourist flow to which in 2019 amounted to 217.8 million people, in 2020 it decreased to 117.1 million people, or almost 1.86 times; in second place among the leading countries is the United States of America, where in 2019 the tourist flow amounted to 167.4 million people, and in 2020 it decreased by almost 3.7 times and amounted to 44.7 million people; China ranks third in terms of tourist visits in 2019 – 167.5 million people, in 2020 it decreased to 30.4 million people, or 5.3 times. Analysis of the national experience of tourism development showed that the pandemic of viral infection also had the most significant impact on the reduction of tourist flows in Ukraine. It is noted that in 2019, the reduction of inbound tourists was almost 4 times, while the reduction of tourists in 2014 at the beginning of military aggression was 1.8 times. The authors consider it appropriate to predict a slight reduction in tourist flows during a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine and to ensure the development of an innovative model of balanced development of national tourism. The creation of an innovative model of balanced development of tourism and resort and recreational sphere with the use of international, national and regional vectors is quite relevant in modern conditions. It is proved that such a model should ensure the achievement of public interests, short-term and long-term goals in solving alternative tasks of obtaining quick and maximum profit by the tourism business and meeting the needs of international tourist traffic and international capital in solving the problem of geographical promotion of tourist flows to new territories.
On February 24, 2022, russia launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine. This situation has radically changed the relations between the states, marked a point of no return in the relations between the ...once fraternal peoples, changed the vectors and priorities for the further development of Ukraine, and created new challenges in all spheres of its life. Moreover, the war in the center of Europe affected the world economy as a whole and the economy of many individual countries, as well as migration and sociopolitical processes. All this was reflected in the change in the research priorities in the world and, in particular, in Ukraine. The purpose of this study is to formulate generalized proposals on ways to counter russia’s military aggression. The article analyzes: World Military Strength Ranking 2022, losses of the russian armed forces as of 15.06.2022; changes in the number of personnel, weapons and equipment of Ukraine’s Armed Forces in 1991-2021. Also a comparative quantitative assessment of the armed forces of Ukraine and russia in 2021 was carried out, considering weaknesses and miscalculations in the formation and development of independent Ukraine that had allowed a full-scale war to take place on its territory. The military potential of the Ukrainian and Russian armies in 1991 and 2021 is compared, new types of weapons developed in Ukraine are considered. The results of Delphi analysis of the Ukrainian defense industry clusters necessary for asymmetric deterrence against an external aggression over the time horizon until 2030 are presented. The ways to provide Ukraine’s Armed Forces with the main types of weapons and military equipment are defined. The conducted research has allowed us to determine that russia, being a country with geopolitical ambitions, will always present a threat to Ukraine, so the national security of our country must be built with consideration for the military and economic strength of the aggressor country. Сonsequently Ukraine must enter into at least one military and economic alliance with other European and world countries. Moreover, Ukraine must have a strong diversified defense industry complex, which will produce its own competitive weapons and military equipment both independently and jointly with other European and world countries or under licenses from foreign manufacturers. Ukraine’s Armed Forces must have such a structure of their services and branches that would allow them to withstand threats from the russian armed forces or asymmetric types of weapons and military equipment that would make it possible to conduct the 2nd, 3rd and 6th generation war.
PDF
