•Explore meteorological impacts based on Köppen-Geiger climate classification.•Examine the control measures for COVID-19 across 189 countries.•Estimate the association between meteorological factor ...and reproduction number.•Discuss flexible adjustment of China's control protocols.
More than 30 months into the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, efforts to bring this prevalence under control have achieved tentative achievements in China. However, the continuing increase in confirmed cases worldwide and the novel variants imply a severe risk of imported viruses. High-intensity non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are the mainly used measures of China's early response to COVID-19, which enabled effective control in the first wave of the epidemic. However, their efficiency is relatively low across China at the current stage. Therefore, this study focuses on whether measurable meteorological variables be found through global data to learn more about COVID-19 and explore flexible controls. This study first examines the control measures, such as NPIs and vaccination, on COVID-19 transmission across 189 countries, especially in China. Subsequently, we estimate the association between meteorological factors and time-varying reproduction numbers based on the global data by meta-population epidemic model, eliminating the aforementioned anthropogenic factors. According to this study, we find that the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 transmission varied wildly among Köppen-Geiger climate classifications, which is of great significance for the flexible adjustment of China's control protocols. We obtain that in southeast China, Köppen-Geiger climate sub-classifications, Cwb, Cfa, and Cfb, are more likely to spread COVID-19. In August, the RSIM of Cwb climate subclassification is about three times that of Dwc in April, which implies that the intensity of control efforts in different sub-regions may differ three times under the same imported risk. However, BSk and BWk, the most widely distributed in northwest China, have smaller basic reproduction numbers than Cfa, distributed in southeast coastal areas. It indicates that northwest China's control intensity could be appropriately weaker than southeast China under the same prevention objectives.
The Covid-19 pandemic required the implementation of various preventive hygiene measures to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) were introduced ...worldwide. The Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on people’s daily lives. Again, relatively simple hygiene measures have proven to be very effective and useful. The main objective of the present study was to find out how people implement the proposed individual prevention measures and how they perceive the administrative measures implemented during the pandemic. The paper presents the results of a web-based, non-representative cross-sectional study conducted between October 15 and November 17, 2020 in Slovenia during the Covid-19 lockdown. The completion of the survey coincided with the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, so it was to be expected that awareness of the importance of hand hygiene as well as other preventive measures was high among respondents. We find that people have changed their hygiene habits during the pandemic. Habits differ both between individual NPIs and between groups of respondents (age, gender and occupational structure of respondents). There are still opportunities to improve knowledge and attitudes towards hand hygiene and to implement all other NPIs.
Stay-at-home orders, physical distancing, face masks and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) do not only impact COVID-19, but also the dynamics of various other infectious diseases. ...Bronchiolitis is a clinically diagnosed viral infection of the lower respiratory tract, and causes a yearly seasonal wave of admissions in paediatric wards worldwide. We counted 92,5% less bronchiolitis hospitalisations in Antwerp before the expected end of the peak this year (of which only 1 RSV positive), as compared to the last 3 years. Furthermore, there was a >99% reduction in the number of registered RSV cases in Belgium.
Conslusion:
The 2020 winter bronchiolitis peak is hitherto nonexistent, but we fear a ‘delayed’ spring/summer bronchiolitis peak when most NPIs will be relaxed and pre-pandemic life restarts.
What is known?
• Bronchiolitis causes a yearly seasonal wave of admissions in paediatric departments worldwide.
• Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) do not only impact COVID-19, but also the dynamics of various other infectious diseases.
What is new?
• The 2020 winter bronchiolitis peak is hitherto nonexistent.
• A ‘delayed’ spring or summer bronchiolitis peak could happen when most NPIs will be relaxed and pre-pandemic life restarts.
The COVID-19 pandemic pushed countries to adopt various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Due to the features of the pandemic, which spread over time and space, governments could decide ...whether or not to follow policy choices made by leaders of countries affected by the virus before them. In this study, we aim to empirically model the adoption of NPIs during the first wave of COVID-19 in the 14 European countries with more than 10 million inhabitants, in order to detect whether a policy diffusion mechanism occurred. By means of a multivariate approach based on Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis, we manage to derive three clusters representing different behaviour models to which the different European countries belong in the different periods of the first wave: pre-pandemic, summer relaxation and deep-lockdown scenarios. These results bring a two-fold contribution: on the one hand, they may help us to understand differences and similarities among European countries during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak and guide future quantitative or qualitative studies; on the other, our findings suggest that with minor exceptions (such as Sweden and Poland), different countries adopted very similar policy strategies, which are likely to be due more to the unfolding of the pandemic than to specific governmental strategies.
•A mathematical method is proposed to derive the sewage flow diurnal patterns.•Simulate the sewage pipe operation risk by infoworks ICM model.•Non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 affects ...municipal sewage flow.•Epidemic lockdown will increase sewage flow and pipe load in residential areas.•Homeworking will delay morning peak time and increase noon peak volume.
Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) have been widely employed globally over the past three years to control the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). These measures have imposed restrictions on urban residents’ activities and significantly influenced sewage discharge characteristics within sewage network, particularly in densely populated cities in China. This study focused on the nodal flow diurnal patterns and sewage network operational risks before and after epidemic lockdown in Beijing from March to May in 2022. Nodal flow diurnal patterns on weekdays and weekends before and after NPIs were analyzed using measured data through statistical and mathematical methods. A sewage network model was established to simulate and analyze the operational risks based on InfoWorks ICM before and after epidemic lockdown. The main conclusions were as follows: (1) In predominantly residential areas, the total wastewater volume increased by approximately 28.76 % to 33.52 % after the implementation of strict NPIs. The morning and midday “M” peaks on normalized weekdays transformed into “N” peaks, and the morning peak time was delayed by 0.5 to 1 hour after the lockdown; (2) Following NPIs, More than 90 % of manholes’ average water levels rose to varying degrees, approximately 50 % of pipe lengths exhibited a full flow state; (3) When the lockdown was in place during a hot summer day, sewage overflow phenomena were observed in 4.6 % and 9.6 % of manholes, respectively, with per capita daily drainage equivalent reaching 40–50 %. These findings hold significant implications for the proactive planning and operational management of water industry infrastructure during major emergencies.
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This study assesses how the implementation and lifting of non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs), deployed by most governments, to curb the COVID-19 pandemic, were associated with ...individuals’ mental well-being (MWB) across 28 European countries. This is done both for the general population and across key-groups. We analyze longitudinal data for 15,147 respondents from three waves of the Eurofound-“Living, Working and COVID-19” survey, covering the period April 2020–March 2021. MWB is measured by the WHO-5 index. Our evidence suggests that restriction on international travel, private gatherings, and contact tracing (workplace closures) were negatively (positively) associated with MWB by about, respectively, −0.63 95% CI: −0.79 to −0.47, −0.24 95% CI: −0.38 to −0.10, and −0.22 95% CI: −0.36 to −0.08 (0.29 95% CI: 0.11 to 0.48) points. These results correspond to −3.9%, −1.5%, and −1.4% (+1.8%) changes compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, these findings mask important group-differences. Women compared to men fared worse under stay-at-home requirements, internal movement restrictions, private gatherings restrictions, public events cancellation, school closures, and workplace closures. Those residing with children below 12, compared to those who do not, fared worse under public events cancellation, school closures and workplace closures. Conversely, those living with children 12–17, compared to those who do not, fared better under internal movement restrictions and public events cancelling. Western-Europeans vis-à-vis Eastern-Europeans fared better under NPIs limiting their mobility and easing their debts, whereas they fared worse under health-related NPIs. This study provides timely evidence of the rise in inequalities during the COVID-19 pandemic and offers strategies for mitigating them.
•We examine the association of MWB with the implementation and lifting of 13 NPIs.•Panel data covering 15,147 individuals from 28 European countries is used.•MWB is positively associated to workplace closures.•Negative is the association with contact-tracing and restrictions on international travels and gatherings.•Women and individuals living with young children fared worse under NPIs.
The globe has witnessed the rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2 mutations and emerging variants of concern (VOCs) and variants of interest (VOIs) that have broadly impacted the transmissibility, ...antigenicity, morbidity, and mortality of the virus. Although around 2.5 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide, vaccine coverage remains far behind the minimum threshold needed to achieve herd immunity overall and it varies substantially by country. Many countries, and especially low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), are struggling with access to COVID-19 vaccines and a lack of personnel to perform mass vaccination. Effective nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are also not unanimously accepted and strictly complied with by the public and local communities. Moreover, the global fight against COVID-19 is and continues to face geopolitical, social, economic, and human rights concerns. Taken together, these circumstances call for a unified public health response with well-organized individual, local, national, and global efforts and actions to achieve success in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic and achieving sustainable health and development goals.
Subjunctives are typically used in intensional, or modal, contexts to talk about possible worlds, but they can also be licensed in negative contexts. While prior work has sought to unify these ...'polarity' subjunctives with 'intensional' subjunctives, in this article I build a case that they represent, in German and Russian at least, a distinct use as negative polarity items (NPIs). This usage fills a gap in the typology of NPIs: unlike known items such as any or ever, which are taken to activate alternatives consisting of individuals, eventualities, or times, these items activate alternatives consisting of worlds.
Bronchiolitis is the most common viral infection of the lower respiratory tract in infants under 2 years of age. The aim of this study was to analyze and compare the seasonal bronchiolitis peaks ...before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
Descriptive, prospective, and observational study. Patients with severe bronchiolitis admitted to the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) of a referral tertiary hospital between September 2010 and June 2021 were included. Demographic data were collected. Viral laboratory-confirmation was carried out. Each season was analyzed and compared. The daily average temperature was collected.
1116 patients were recruited, 58.2% of them males. The median age was 49 days. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was isolated in 782 cases (70.1%). In April 2021, the first and only case of bronchiolitis caused by SARS-CoV-2 was identified. The pre- and post-pandemic periods were compared. There were statistically significant differences regarding: age, 47 vs. 73 days (p = 0.006), PICU and hospital length of stay (p = 0.024 and p = 0.001, respectively), and etiology (p = 0.031). The peak for bronchiolitis in 2020 was non-existent before week 52. A delayed peak was seen around week 26/2021. The mean temperature during the epidemic peak was 10ºC for the years of the last decade and is 23ºC for the present season.
The COVID-19 pandemic outbreak has led to a clearly observable epidemiological change regarding acute bronchiolitis, which should be studied in detail. The influence of the environmental temperature does not seem to determine the viral circulation.
•We developed a mobility network model for spatial epidemics.•The second outbreak occurred approximately on March 1, 2020.•By March 15, 2020, the cumulative cases increased by 70.6% without a travel ...ban.•The increase of cumulative cases is mainly caused by intra-province travel.•The strict travel ban successfully prevented a severe secondary wave in China.
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic expanded its geographic distribution through the movement of humans and caused subsequent local outbreaks. Hence, it is essential to investigate how human mobility and travel ban affect the transmission and spatial spread while minimizing the impact on social activities and national economics.
We developed a mobility network model for spatial epidemics, explicitly taking into account time-varying inter-province and inner-province population flows, spatial heterogeneity in terms of disease transmission, as well as the impact of media reports. The model is applied to study the epidemic of the dynamic network of 30 provinces of mainland China. The model was calibrated using the publicly available incidence and movement data.
We estimated that the second outbreak occurred approximately on February 24, 2020, and the cumulative number of cases as of March 15, 2020, increased by 290.1% (95% CI: (255.3%, 324.9%)) without a travel ban in mainland China (excluding Hubei and Tibet). We found that intra-province travel contributes more to the increase of cumulative number of cases than inter-province travel.
Our quantitative and qualitative research results suggest that the strict travel ban has successfully prevented a severe secondary outbreak in mainland China, which provides solutions for many countries and regions experiencing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19.
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