Nearly 1 year into the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, the first severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 vaccines received emergency use authorisation and vaccination campaigns began. A ...number of factors can reduce the averted burden of cases and deaths due to vaccination. Here, we use a dynamic model, parametrised with Bayesian inference methods, to assess the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (such as social distancing, mask mandates, school and workplace closure), and vaccine administration and uptake rates on infections and deaths averted in the United States. We show that scenarios depicting higher compliance with NPIs avert more than 60% of infections and 70% of deaths during the period of vaccine administration, and that increasing the vaccination rate from 5 to 11 million people per week could increase the averted burden by more than one-third. These findings underscore the importance of maintaining NPIs and increasing vaccine administration rates.
Several severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants have recently been reported in many countries. These have exacerbated the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-induced ...global health threats and hindered COVID-19 vaccine development and therapeutic progress. This commentary discusses the potential risk of the newly classified Mu variant of interest, seeming a highly vaccine-resistant variant, and the approaches that can be adopted to tackle this variant based on the available evidence. The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.621 (Mu variant) lineage has shown approximately ten times higher resistance to neutralizing sera obtained from COVID-19 survivors or BNT161b2-vaccinated people than the parenteral B.1 lineage. Several urgent and long-term strategic plans, including quick genomic surveillance for uncovering the genetic characteristics of the variants, equitable global mass vaccination, booster dose administration if required, and strict implementation of public health measures or non-pharmaceutical interventions, must be undertaken concertedly to restrict further infections, mutations, or recombination of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its deadly strains.
The globe has witnessed the rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2 mutations and emerging variants of concern (VOCs) and variants of interest (VOIs) that have broadly impacted the transmissibility, ...antigenicity, morbidity, and mortality of the virus. Although around 2.5 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide, vaccine coverage remains far behind the minimum threshold needed to achieve herd immunity overall and it varies substantially by country. Many countries, and especially low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), are struggling with access to COVID-19 vaccines and a lack of personnel to perform mass vaccination. Effective nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are also not unanimously accepted and strictly complied with by the public and local communities. Moreover, the global fight against COVID-19 is and continues to face geopolitical, social, economic, and human rights concerns. Taken together, these circumstances call for a unified public health response with well-organized individual, local, national, and global efforts and actions to achieve success in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic and achieving sustainable health and development goals.
In this study, we investigated the impact of COVID-19 NPIs in South Africa to understand their effectiveness in the reduction of transmission of COVID-19 in the South African population. This study ...also investigated the COVID-19 testing, reporting, hospitalised cases, excess deaths and COVID-19 modelling in the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa.
A semi-reactive stochastic COVID-19 model, the ARI COVID-19 SEIR model, was used to investigate the impact of NPIs in South Africa to understand their effectiveness in the reduction of COVID-19 transmission in the South African population. COVID-19 testing, reporting, hospitalised cases and excess deaths in the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in South Africa were investigated using regressional analysis and descriptive statistics.
The general trend in population movement in South African locations shows that the COVID-19 NPIs (National Lockdown Alert Levels 5,4,3,2) were approximately 30% more effective in reducing population movement concerning each increase by 1 Alert Level. The translated reduction in the effective SARS-CoV-2 daily contact number (β) was 6.12% to 36.1% concerning increasing Alert Levels. Due to the implemented NPIs, the effective SARS-CoV-2 daily contact number in the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in South Africa was reduced by 58.1-71.1% while the peak was delayed by 84 days. The estimated COVID-19 reproductive number was between 1.98 to 0.40. During South Africa's first COVID-19 epidemic wave, the mean COVID-19 admission status in South African hospitals was 58.5%, 95% CI 58.1-59.0 in the general ward, 13.4%, 95% CI 13.1-13.7 in the intensive care unit, 13.3%, 95% CI 12.6-14.0 on oxygen, 6.37%, 95% CI 6.23-6.51 in high care, 6.29%, 95% CI 6.02-6.55 on ventilator and 2.13%, 95% CI 1.87-2.43 in isolation ward respectively. The estimated mean South African COVID-19 patient discharge rate was 11.9 days per patient. While the estimated mean of the South African COVID-19 patient case fatality rate (CFR) in hospital and outside the hospital was 2.06%, 95% CI 1.86-2.25 (deaths per admitted patients) and 2.30%, 95% CI 1.12-3.83(deaths per severe and critical cases) respectively. The relatively high coefficient of variance in COVID-19 model outputs observed in this study shows the uncertainty in the accuracy of the reviewed COVID-19 models in predicting the severity of COVID-19. However, the reviewed COVID-19 models were accurate in predicting the progression of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in South Africa.
The results from this study show that the COVID-19 NPI policies implemented by the Government of South Africa played a significant role in the reduction of COVID-19 active, hospitalised cases and deaths in South Africa's first COVID-19 epidemic wave. The results also show the use of COVID-19 modelling to understand the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of regressor variables in an epidemic.
Replacement of β cells is only a curative approach for type 1 diabetes (T1D) patients to avoid the threat of iatrogenic hypoglycemia. In this pursuit, islet allotransplantation under Edmonton's ...protocol emerged as a medical miracle to attain hypoglycemia-free insulin independence in T1D. Shortage of allo-islet donors and post-transplantation (post-tx) islet loss are still unmet hurdles for the widespread application of this therapeutic regimen. The long-term survival and effective insulin independence in preclinical studies have strongly suggested pig islets to cure overt hyperglycemia. Importantly, CRISPR-Cas9 technology is pursuing to develop "humanized" pig islets that could overcome the lifelong immunosuppression drug regimen. Lately, induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived β cell approaches are also gaining momentum and may hold promise to yield a significant supply of insulin-producing cells. Theoretically, personalized β cells derived from a patient's iPSCs is one exciting approach, but β cell-specific immunity in T1D recipients would still be a challenge. In this context, encapsulation studies on both pig islet as well as iPSC-β cells were found promising and rendered long-term survival in mice. Oxygen tension and blood vessel growth within the capsules are a few of the hurdles that need to be addressed. In conclusion, challenges associated with both procedures, xenotransplantation (of pig-derived islets) and stem cell transplantation, are required to be cautiously resolved before their clinical application.
On 11 March 2020, the WHO declared the COVID-19 epidemic to be a global pandemic. This was a consequence of the rapid increase in the number of people with positive test results, the increase in ...deaths due to COVID-19, and the lack of pharmaceutical drugs. Governments introduced national lockdowns, which have impacted both energy consumption and economies. The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: do COVID-19 lockdowns affect the business cycle? We used the cycle clock approach to assess the magnitude of decrease in electricity consumption in the three waves of the epidemic, namely, April 2020, November 2021, and April 2021. Additionally, we checked the relation between energy consumption and GDP by means of spectral analysis. Results for selected 28 European countries confirm an impact of the introduced non-pharmaceutical interventions on both energy consumption and business cycle. The reduction of restrictions in subsequent pandemic waves increased electricity consumption, which suggests movement out of the economic recession.
Governments want to know how effective COVID-19 anti-contagion policies and implemented economic stimulus measures have been to plan their short-run interventions. We condition on the state of the ...pandemic to assess the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and economic stimulus policies on the excess unemployment insurance claims in the United States. We focus on weekly data between February 2020 and January 2021 and motivate our analysis by the theoretical framework of the second-wave SIR-macro type models to build a panel Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) specification. Non-pharmaceutical interventions become effective immediately and impact the labor market negatively. Economic stimulus takes about a month to turn effective and only partially eases the economic welfare losses. Health-related restrictive measures are primarily driven by the state of the pandemic. Economic support policies depend predominantly on the reaction of the labor market rather than the severity of the pandemic itself.
Display omitted
•The framework of second-wave SIR-macro type models is validated empirically.•A pandemic shock constrains the economy's production and the household labor supply.•Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) raise unemployment claims instantaneously.•Economic stimulus mitigates partially the consequences of NPIs but not immediately.•Time and magnitude are of the essence for stimulus policies to reduce job losses.
The spatio-temporal course of an epidemic (such as COVID-19) can be significantly affected by non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as full or partial lockdowns. Bayesian ...Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) models can be applied to the spatio-temporal spread of infectious diseases (STIFs) (such as COVID-19). In causal inference, it is classically of interest to investigate the counterfactuals. In the context of STIF, it is possible to use nowcasting to assess the possible counterfactual realization of disease in an incidence that would have been evidenced with no NPI. Classic lagged dependency spatio-temporal IF models are discussed, and the importance of the ST component in nowcasting is assessed. Real examples of lockdowns for COVID-19 in two US states during 2020 and 2021 are provided. The degeneracy in prediction over longer time periods is highlighted, and the wide confidence intervals characterize the forecasts. For SC, the early and short lockdown contrasted with the longer NJ intervention. The approach here demonstrated marked differences in spatio-temporal disparities across counties with respect to an adherence to counterfactual predictions.
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for SARS‐CoV‐2 disrupted circulation of influenza. We used data from 13 African countries and generalized linear models to identify associations between levels ...of NPIs, using the Oxford Stringency Index, and seasonal influenza activity, using parameters derived from 2020–2022 seasonal influenza surveillance. We found that for each step increase in school closings, the average percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for influenza across the influenza season dropped by 20% (95% CI: 1–38%); no other NPI was significant. These findings may inform interventions to slow influenza circulation in pandemics and possibly during seasonal epidemics.
•We assess COVID-19 lockdowns' effects on Chilean businesses (2020–2021).•Lockdowns reduced sales, affecting MSMEs and select industries.•Vaccination campaign and mobility pass mitigated negative ...effects.•Targeted support needed for MSMEs and vulnerable industries affected by NPIs.•Post-vaccine, easing mobility restrictions improved economic recovery.
This study evaluates the effects of COVID-19 lockdowns, differentiated by their stringency, on the sales of Chilean businesses across various size categories and industries throughout 2020 and 2021. It also explores the role of the vaccination campaign and the implementation of the Mobility Pass in mitigating the negative economic effects of stringent containment measures.
The study uses administrative data from the Chilean Internal Revenue Service (SII), examining sales across different business sizes and industries, from March 2020 to December 2021. Through an econometric analysis, we estimate the effects of lockdowns on business sales during two distinct periods: initial reliance on dynamic non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) pre-vaccine, and a subsequent stage characterized by high vaccine uptake and reduced NPI stringency.
Lockdowns significantly reduced sales across all business sizes and most industries during the first period, with microenterprises and certain service sectors experiencing the highest decline. The national vaccination campaign and the introduction of the Mobility Pass in the second period appears to have mitigated the negative effects of lockdowns, primarily benefiting micro and small firms.
The study highlights the trade-offs between health and economic outcomes during the pandemic, stressing the importance to alleviate mobility restrictions post-vaccine rollout to ease the economic strain on businesses. The findings call for targeted support measures for MSMEs and vulnerable industries affected by NPIs.
PDF
