To analyze the progress towards the accomplishment of the expected goal in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011-2020 in Mexico and its states.
This is a secondary analysis of road ...traffic deaths in Mexico between 1999 and 2015. We projected the trend for the period 2011-2020 using a time series analysis (autoregressive integrated moving average models). We used the value of the Aikaike Information Criterion to determine the best model for the national level and its 32 states.
Mexico is progressing, approaching the proposed goal, which translates into 10,856 potentially prevented deaths in the five-year period from 2011 to 2015. This was due to a decrease in the number of deaths of motor vehicle occupants, as the deaths of pedestrians and motorcyclists were higher than expected. At least one third of the states had values below their goal; although the mortality rate remains unacceptably high in five of them. We identified four states with more deaths than those originally projected and other states with an increasing trend; thus, both cases need to strengthen their prevention actions.
The analysis can allow us to see the progress of the country in the middle of the Decade of Action, as well as identify the challenges in the prevention of traffic injuries in vulnerable users. It contributes with elements that provide a basis for a need to rethink both the national goal and the goal of the different states.
Recent research has found evidence of an association between motor vehicle accidents (MVAs) or near miss accidents (NMAs), and excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) or its main medical cause, ...Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA). However, EDS can also be due to non-medical factors, such as sleep debt (SD), which is common among professional truck drivers. On the opposite side, rest breaks and naps are known to protect against accidents.
To investigate the association of OSA, SD, EDS, rest breaks and naps, with the occurrence of MVAs and NMAs in a large sample of truck drivers.
949 male truck drivers took part in a cross-sectional medical examination and were asked to complete a questionnaire about sleep and waking habits, risk factors for OSA and EDS.
MVAs and NMAs were reported by 34.8% and 9.2% of participants, respectively. MVAs were significantly predicted by OSA (OR = 2.32 CI95% = 1.68-3.20), SD (OR = 1.45 CI95% = 1.29-1.63), EDS (OR = 1.73 CI95% = 1.15-2.61) and prevented by naps (OR = 0.59 CI95% = 0.44-0.79) or rest breaks (OR = 0.63 CI95% = 0.45-0.89). NMAs were significantly predicted by OSA (OR = 2.39 CI95% = 1.47-3.87) and SD (OR = 1.49 CI95% = 1.27-1.76) and prevented by naps (OR = 0.52 CI95% = 0.32-0.85) or rest breaks (OR = 0.49 CI95% = 0.29-0.82).
When OSA, SD or EDS are present, the risk of MVAs or NMAs in truck drivers is severely increased. Taking a rest break or a nap appear to be protective against accidents.
We aim to place into the scientific literature information on the prevalence of operator fatigue as a factor in causing transportation mishaps, and the categories of improvements identified to ...address fatigue in transportation.
We analyzed the number of major National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) investigations that identified fatigue as a probable cause, contributing factor, or a finding. We divided all NTSB recommendations addressing fatigue issued since the agency was founded into 7 subject categories, and placed each recommendation into the appropriate category. This information was then analyzed to determine the number of recommendations in each category, both overall and by transportation mode. Analysis was also performed regarding the types of organizations that received the recommendations, whether the recommended actions have been taken, and the NTSB's evaluation of whether the action taken satisfied a given recommendation.
We reviewed 182 major NTSB investigations completed between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2012 and found that 20% of these investigations identified fatigue as a probable cause, contributing factor, or a finding. The presence of fatigue varied between among the modes of transportation, ranging from 40% of highway investigations to 4% of marine investigations. The first NTSB recommendation to address the safety risks associated with human fatigue was issued over 40 years ago, in 1972. Since then, the NTSB has issued 205 separate fatigue-specific recommendations. Scheduling policies and practices was the most common subject category accounting for 40% of all recommendations issued. Federal agencies received 54% of all recommendations, with 22% to transportation operators, and 16% to associations. Of all NTSB fatigue recommendations, 24% were open ranging from a low of 9% in highway to 39% in aviation. Overall, only 3% of open recommendations were classified "unacceptable," whereas 16% of all closed recommendations were classified "unacceptable."
Although there has been over 100 years of progress in recognizing and addressing the safety risk posed by human fatigue in transportation, 20% of recent NTSB investigations have identified fatigue as a probable cause, contributing factor or finding. This analysis represents the first-ever examination of fatigue identified in major NTSB investigations across modes and of the focus, recipients, and classification status of fatigue-related safety recommendations. It demonstrates that fatigue remains a significant transportation safety risk.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the complex coupling relationships among accident factors contributing to the automobile and two-wheeler traffic accidents by establishing the Bayesian network ...(BN) model of the severity of traffic accidents, so as to minimize the negative impact of automobile to two-wheeler traffic accidents. According to the attribution of primary responsibility, traffic accidents were divided to two categories: the automobile and two-wheeler traffic as the primary responsible party. Two BN accident severity analysis models for different primary responsible parties were proposed by innovatively combining the Kendall correlation analysis method with the BN model. A database of 1560 accidents involving an automobile and two-wheeler in Guilin, Guangxi province, were applied to calibrate the model parameters and validate the effectiveness of the models. The result shows that the BN models could reflect the real relationships among the influential factors of the two types of traffic accidents. For traffic accidents of automobiles and two-wheelers as the primary responsible party, respectively, the biggest influential factors leading to fatality were weather and visibility, and the corresponding fluctuations in the probability of occurrence were 32.20% and 27.23%, respectively. Moreover, based on multi-factor cross-over analysis, the most influential factors leading to fatality were: {Off-Peak Period → Driver of Two-Wheeler: The elderly → Driving Behavior of Two-Wheeler: Parking} and {Drunk Driving Two-Wheeler → Having a License of Automobiles → Visibility: 50 m~100 m}, respectively. The results provide a theoretical basis for reducing the severity of automobile to two-wheeler traffic accidents.
•In this study, the feasibility of the modified Human Factor Analysis and Classification System for Passenger Vessel collisions (HFACS-PV) is demonstrated for other types of accidents.•The HFACS-PV ...structure makes it possible to evaluate the occurrence of marine accidents and to analyse the contributions of human error.•The results of this study show that the HFACS-PV structure is compatible with contact, grounding and sinking accidents as well as collisions.•The main feature that distinguishes HFACS-PV from other HFACS structures is that it examines the internal and external environmental factors as a separate level under the name “Operational Conditions”
Shipping is one of the leading modes of transport that has dominated the world economy from past to present. The effectiveness and efficiency of maritime trade is closely related to maritime safety. Providing quality maritime safety is a fundamental requirement for environmentally friendly, sustainable, safe and efficient global trade. Therefore, maritime safety and human factors are frequently studied topics in literature. However, the fact that the human element has a complex socio-technical structure makes it difficult to fully analyse human factors in accidents. That is one of the biggest challenges in preventing and mitigating accidents. This research aims to demonstrate the feasibility of the modified Human Factor Analysis and Classification System for Passenger Vessel collisions (HFACS-PV) for other types of accidents. 51 grounding accidents that occurred in passenger vessels between 1991 and 2017 were analysed by using the HFACS-PV structure. The results show that the HFACS-PV structure created for passenger vessel accidents is compatible with contact, grounding and sinking accidents as well as collisions. Thus, the HFACS-PV structure allows for coherent analysis of marine accidents. Owing to the flexibility of HFACS, it is also possible to combine it with other analytical methods to conduct both qualitative and quantitative analysis.
•A meticulous investigation into the casual factors contributing to construction accidents in a developing country is investigated.•A novel fuzzy Delphi method for identifying and prioritizing the ...critical causes is proposed.•The cause-and-effect relationships among the critical casual factors are unraveled using the FDEMATEL technique.•Twenty-three sub-causes are seen to be the major culprits for the occurrence of related accidents.•Organizational and workplace and environmental causes turn out to be the most influential causes.
Though some studies have explored the causes of accidents on construction sites, the interdependency among the underlying causes remains elusive. This undermines the efficacy of any decision made by safety experts in reducing accidents’ impact. To fill this gap, a hybrid fuzzy-based framework is developed in this study to comprehensively identify and prioritize critical causes, as well as map interrelationships among these causes. The proposed framework is based on the infusion of the Pentagonal Fuzzy Delphi Method (PFDM) and Fuzzy DEMATEL techniques. Findings show that six main causes and twenty-three corresponding sub-causes (out of forty-seven identified ones) are the major culprits for the occurrence of related accidents. Furthermore, it was revealed that “organizational” and “workplace and environmental” causes turn out to be the most influential causes, while inappropriate safety guidelines and policies, poor safety management system, poor safety culture, poor safety knowledge of management team, the financial instability of firms, and corruption were the predominant sub-causes affecting the related accidents’ impact. To validate findings, several interviews with senior experts are undertaken. The outcomes of this study are vital for the concerned safety decision-makers by highlighting the influential causes debilitating the safety and health of involved workers.
•We analyze the traffic accident data in China.•We focus on two outcome measures: traffic violations and accident severity.•Human, vehicle, road and environmental risk factors are considered.•The ...results establish the role of traffic violations as one of the major risks threatening road safety.•Specific risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity are determined.
With the recent economic boom in China, vehicle volume and the number of traffic accident fatalities have become the highest in the world. Meanwhile, traffic accidents have become the leading cause of death in China. Systematically analyzing road safety data from different perspectives and applying empirical methods/implementing proper measures to reduce the fatality rate will be an urgent and challenging task for China in the coming years. In this study, we analyze the traffic accident data for the period 2006–2010 in Guangdong Province, China. These data, extracted from the Traffic Management Sector-Specific Incident Case Data Report, are the only officially available and reliable source of traffic accident data (with a sample size >7000 per year). In particular, we focus on two outcome measures: traffic violations and accident severity. Human, vehicle, road and environmental risk factors are considered. First, the results establish the role of traffic violations as one of the major risks threatening road safety. An immediate implication is: if the traffic violation rate could be reduced or controlled successfully, then the rate of serious injuries and fatalities would be reduced accordingly. Second, specific risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity are determined. Accordingly, to reduce traffic accident incidence and fatality rates, measures such as traffic regulations and legislation—targeting different vehicle types/driver groups with respect to the various human, vehicle and environment risk factors—are needed. Such measures could include road safety programs for targeted driver groups, focused enforcement of traffic regulations and road/transport facility improvements. Data analysis results arising from this study will shed lights on the development of similar (adjusted) measures to reduce traffic violations and/or accident fatalities and injuries, and to promote road safety in other regions.
Introduction: Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) account for a considerable amount of fatalities when compared to other accident categories. Human factors are deemed significant contributory ...causes in these accidents. This paper aims to identify the human factors involved with aviation accidents that resulted in CFIT. Method: The study used the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) framework to determine the factors involved in 50 CFIT accidents from 24 counties over a 10 year period, i.e. 2007–2017. Interviews with five senior aviation safety experts were used to provide a better comprehension of the human factors affecting the flight safety. Results: The study identified 1289 individual causal and contributory human factors with unsafe actions and preconditions for unsafe actions being the main subcategories of the accidents. The study found that CFIT occur across a range of pilot experience and 44% of accidents occurred in cruise flight. Distraction, complacency and fatigue are all elements that flight crews may experience as contributors to CFIT during cruising. Conclusions: Human factors represent a major component of CFIT accidents. The analysis revealed a similar pattern of contributory and causal human factors across the various flight categories, with some noteworthy isolated variations. The prevalent factors were decision and skill-based errors along with communication, coordination and planning issues. Practical applications: Provision of specific CFIT awareness, pilot training focusing on improved decision-making and revision of basic flight skills, development of specific Global Positioning System routes for transiting high terrain areas are necessary to prevent CFIT accidents. Installation of Terrain Avoidance and Warning System and Ground Proximity Warning System and appropriate equipment training, specific CFIT Crew Resource Management training and improvement of organizational knowledge on the elements involved in CFIT are also recommended.
•Human factors are significant contributory causes in Controlled Flight Into Terrain accidents.•Unsafe actions and preconditions for unsafe actions are the main subcategories of CFIT accidents.•Decision and skill-based errors along with communication, coordination and planning issues are the prevalent factors.•Recommendations to prevent CFIT accidents are also provided.
The paper identifies frequent accident types in the construction industry, characterises the accident sequence, and identifies barrier failures for the most frequent accident types. 176 accidents in ...the Norwegian construction industry investigated by the Norwegian Labour Inspection Authority in 2015 are analysed. The most frequent accident types include: fall from roof, floor or platform; contact with falling objects; fall from scaffold; and contact with moving parts of a machine. A comparison of the study sample to other injury samples, showed that the distribution of accident types varied regarding severity and different construction types. This can be explained by differences in work type, hazard, and energy type and energy amount. An analysis of barrier failures showed that many accidents are explained by the lack of physical barrier elements. The results indicate that there is significant potential for accident prevention in the construction industry by systematic barrier management.
Construction accident investigation reports contain critical information, but extracting useful insights from the voluminous Chinese text is challenging. Traditional methods rely on expert judgment, ...which leads to time-consuming and potentially inaccurate results. To overcome this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines text mining techniques and latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) models to analyze standardized accident investigation reports in the Chinese construction industry. The proposed method integrates an information entropy term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF) weighting scheme to evaluate term importance and accounts for word and model uncertainty. The method was applied to a set of construction industry accident reports to identify the key factors leading to safety accidents. The results show that the causal factors of accidents in Chinese accident investigation reports consist of keywords and negative expressions, including “failure to timely identify safety hazards” and “inadequate site safety management”. Failure to timely identify safety hazards is the most common factor in accident investigation reports, and the negative expressions commonly used in the reports include “not timely” and “not in place”. The information entropy TF-IDF method is superior to traditional methods in terms of accuracy and efficiency, and the LDA model that considers word frequency and feature weights is better able to capture the underlying themes in the Chinese corpus. And the subject terms that make up the themes contain more information about the causes of accidents. This approach helps site managers more quickly and effectively understand the causal factors and key messages that lead to accidents from incident reports. It gives site managers insight into common patterns and themes associated with safety incidents, such as unsafe practices, hazardous work environments, and non-compliance with safety regulations. This enables them to make informed decisions to improve safety management practices.
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