Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on ...Climate Change (UNFCCC), including the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement that will conclude at COP28 in December 2023. Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5-10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles.
Improved understanding of how our coasts will evolve over a range of time scales (years‐decades) is critical for effective and sustainable management of coastal infrastructure. A robust knowledge of ...the spatial, directional and temporal variability of the inshore wave climate is required to predict future coastal evolution and hence vulnerability. However, the variability of the inshore directional wave climate has received little attention, and an improved understanding could drive development of skillful seasonal or decadal forecasts of coastal response. We examine inshore wave climate at 63 locations throughout the United Kingdom and Ireland (1980–2017) and show that 73% are directionally bimodal. We find that winter‐averaged expressions of six leading atmospheric indices are strongly correlated (r = 0.60–0.87) with both total and directional winter wave power (peak spectral wave direction) at all studied sites. Regional inshore wave climate classification through hierarchical cluster analysis and stepwise multi‐linear regression of directional wave correlations with atmospheric indices defined four spatially coherent regions. We show that combinations of indices have significant skill in predicting directional wave climates (R2 = 0.45–0.8; p < 0.05). We demonstrate for the first time the significant explanatory power of leading winter‐averaged atmospheric indices for directional wave climates, and show that leading seasonal forecasts of the NAO skillfully predict wave climate in some regions.
Plain Language Summary
Understanding the seasonal variability in wave climate around our coasts is fundamental for improving our understanding of how coasts will respond to climate change and sea‐level rise. Recent research has highlighted the importance of wave direction on coastal response. In this study we specifically explore the seasonal variability in wave direction throughout the inshore regions of the United Kingdom and Ireland at 63 locations between 1980 and 2017. We find that 73% of sites examined are directionally bimodal. We also find that combinations of six of the region's leading climate indices (NAO, AO, WEPA, EA, SCAND, and EA/WR) are strongly correlated with both total and directional winter wave power at all the studied sites. We show that regression models using combinations of these climate indices have significant skill in predicting directional wave climates over the period 1980–2017. For the first time we show that “seasonal ahead” forecasts of the NAO can skillfully predict wave climate in some regions of the United Kingdom and Ireland, which could be used as tool to support coastal hazard mitigation.
Key Points
Over 70% of inshore wave climates analyzed throughout the United Kingdom and Ireland were directionally bimodal
Combinations of winter atmospheric indices NAO, WEPA, SCAND, and EA are significantly correlated with directional wave climate in all regions
Regression models using multiple winter atmospheric indices enable skillful reconstructions of directional wave climate in all regions
The 25‐year record of satellite altimeter‐measured sea level has led to improvements in the understanding of sea level change on both regional and global scales. However, the extent to which the ...pattern of regional sea level rise measured by altimeters is representative of the forced sea level response remains an open question. Internal variability both contributes to regional sea level changes on short time scales and masks the pattern of forced trend and acceleration associated with anthropogenic global warming. Recent studies have demonstrated that the forced trend pattern of regional rise has begun to emerge, although there has been no assessment of a possible associated acceleration. Here, the regional acceleration pattern is estimated from the altimeter sea level record and assessed with regard to the influence of internal variability. While the dominant features in the acceleration pattern can be attributed to internal variability, there is an indication that the forced acceleration pattern may emerge as the record continues to lengthen.
Key Points
Internal variability is removed from the satellite altimeter record, and the impact on trends and accelerations is assessed
For most locations, a significant acceleration or deceleration still has not emerged, despite removing some amount of internal variability
Many of the large‐amplitude signals have been removed, narrowing the range of accelerations that could be associated with a forced response
•477 villages throughout Kalimantan were surveyed about forest health benefits.•The most frequent answer was maintenance of cool local temperatures.•Perceptions were driven by deforestation and local ...temperature.•Results point to possible threat of heat impacts on health.•Policy should incorporate human health when considering land use.
The combined effects of changes in climate and land cover expose millions of people to an increased likelihood of heat illness. Impacts of heat stress on health have primarily been quantified for urban environments, particularly in developed countries. Far less is known in other settings, including the effects of ongoing tropical deforestation on local temperature and its consequences for people living in these rapidly changing landscapes. Here, we explore links between deforestation and self-reported human health and well-being in the tropical landscapes of Borneo. We use extensive social surveys from nearly 500 villages throughout Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) that asked whether forests were important for health, and why. The most frequent answer viewed forests as important for maintaining cool local temperatures (volunteered by 28% of 4634 respondents). Using boosted regression tree analysis incorporating spatial metrics of deforestation and temperature, we found that villagers were more likely to report this cooling effect if they were from villages with higher or more variable temperatures, and in recently deforested or fragmented landscapes. Our results highlight the role of forests in regulating the local climate. This ecosystem service is highly threatened, and yet increasingly vital for avoiding heat illness and enabling adaptation to global climate change.
As it becomes increasingly urgent to address climate change, scholars have begun to explore how attitudes toward climate change are shaped, including the influence of messages people hear in the ...context of the ongoing climate change debate. What has not yet been addressed, however, is how these arguments might be affecting not only climate change attitudes (direct attitude change), but other environmental attitudes as well (lateral attitude change). To explore this possibility, two experimental studies were conducted in which participants read a message either supporting or opposing climate change action. Attitudes toward climate change, the closely related issues of recycling and alternative energy, and the distantly related issues of mandatory vaccination and gun control were assessed before and after message exposure. Results indicated that lateral attitude change (specifically, generalization) occurred for recycling and alternative energy, but not vaccination or gun control. Several possible moderators of these effects were explored, but were found to have only a limited impact. General implications for public opinion are discussed.
Dealing with climate change means accepting tough tradeoffs: giving up certain energy sources, products, and conveniences, all of which have economic impacts. Politicians balk, but there are ...solutions. Roland Kupers turns to the new science of complexity to show how we can untangle a knotty global economy and start making progress.
Seabird population changes are good indicators of long-term and large-scale change in marine ecosystems, and important because of their many impacts on marine ecosystems. We assessed the population ...trend of the world's monitored seabirds (1950-2010) by compiling a global database of seabird population size records and applying multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) modeling to estimate the overall population trend of the portion of the population with sufficient data (i.e., at least five records). This monitored population represented approximately 19% of the global seabird population. We found the monitored portion of the global seabird population to have declined overall by 69.7% between 1950 and 2010. This declining trend may reflect the global seabird population trend, given the large and apparently representative sample. Furthermore, the largest declines were observed in families containing wide-ranging pelagic species, suggesting that pan-global populations may be more at risk than shorter-ranging coastal populations.
The Mongolian Plateau hosts two different governments: the Mongolian People's Republic and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, a provincial-level government of the People's Republic of China. The ...divergence between these governments has widened in the past century, mostly due to a series of institutional changes that generated different socioeconomic and demographic trajectories. Due to its high latitude and altitude, the Plateau has been highly sensitive to the rapid changes in global and regional climates that have altered the spatial and temporal distributions of energy and water. Based on a recent workshop to synthesize findings on the sustainability of the Plateau amidst socioeconomic and environmental change, we identify five critical issues facing the social-ecological systems (SES): (1) divergent and uncertain changes in social and ecological characteristics; (2) declining prevalence of nomadism; (3) consequences of rapid urbanization in transitional economies; (4) the unsustainability of large-scale afforestation efforts in the semi-arid and arid areas of Inner Mongolia; and (5) the role of institutional changes in shaping the SES on the Plateau. We emphasize that lessons learned in Inner Mongolia are valuable, but may not always apply to Mongolia. National land management policies and regulations have long-term effects on the sustainability of SES; climate change adaptation policies and practices must be tuned to local conditions and should be central to decision-making on natural resource management and socioeconomic development pathways.
This open access book introduces the function, implementation and governance of green infrastructure in Japan and other countries where lands are geologically fragile and climatologically susceptible ...to climate change. It proposes green infrastructure as an adaptation strategy for climate change and biodiversity conservation. In the face of climate change, dams, levees and floodways built as disaster prevention facilities do not sufficiently function against extraordinary events such as mega-floods and tsunami disasters. To prevent those disasters and loss of biodiversity in various ecosystems, we should shift from conventional hard measures to more adaptive strategies using various functions that natural and semi-natural ecosystems provide. Green infrastructure is an interconnected network of waterways, wetlands, woodlands, wildlife habitats and other natural areas that support native species, maintain natural ecological processes, sustain air and water resources and contribute to the health and quality of life for communities and people. Green infrastructure has mainly been discussed from adaptation strategy perspectives in cities and urban areas. However, to protect cities, which are generally situated at downstream lower elevations, we explore the preservation and restoration of forests at headwater basins and wetlands along rivers from a catchment perspective. In addition, the quantitative examination of flood risk, biodiversity, and social-economic benefits described in this book brings new perspectives to the discussion. The aim of this book is to accelerate the transformative changes from gray-based adaptation strategies to green- or hybrid-based strategies to adapt to climate change. The book provides essential information on the structure, function, and maintenance of green infrastructure for scientists, university students, government officers, and practitioners.
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