With weak law-enforcement institutions, a positive shock to the value of natural resources may increase demand for private protection and opportunities for rent appropriation through extortion, ...favouring the emergence of mafia-type organisations. We test this hypothesis by investigating the emergence of the mafia in twentieth century Sicily, where a severe lack of state property-rights enforcement coincided with a steep rise in international demand for sulphur, Sicily's most valuable export commodity. Using historical data on the early incidence of mafia activity and on the distribution of sulphur reserves, we document that the mafia was more present in municipalities with greater sulphur availability.
•Networks of religion and state shaped fiscal capacity in both Europe and China.•Deep civic penetration of a universalistic religion bolstered European state capacity.•China's imperial dynasties ...stifled connectivity among subnetworks.•Kinship ties were an incomplete substitute for corporate structures in China.•Dissimilar premodern network topologies underpin the Great Divergence.
As conduits for the transmission of cultural values, networks of religion and state originating in premodern Europe and China contributed to the institutional roots of their respective development and continue to forge different economic trajectories. In Europe, a universalistic religious doctrine, ideologically and institutionally distinct from the state, led to important underlying differences in market structures and informal constraints. Legal protocols and innovations in social governance emerged whose origins lay in Church doctrine and Christian ethics. In China, Confucian teaching and an examination-based recruitment of officials strengthened centralized authority; but without a systemwide transmission of unifying prosocial bonds and values as a foundation for contract law, this cheap system of social control left the state encumbered with fiscally anemic finances. These differences preceded the Great Divergence and persisted long after it to produce in Europe greater civic and fiscal capacity, and in the end more state building.
As Africa's role on the global stage is rising, so does the need to understand the shadow of history on the continent's economy and polity. We discuss recent works that shed light on Africa's ...colonial and precolonial legacies. The emerging corpus is remarkably interdisciplinary. Archives, ethnographic materials, georeferenced censuses, surveys, and satellite imagery are some of the sources often combined to test influential conjectures put forward in African historiography. Exploiting within-country variation and employing credible, albeit mostly local, identification techniques, this recent literature has uncovered strong evidence of historical continuity as well as instances of rupture in the evolution of the African economy. The exposition proceeds in reverse chronological order. Starting from the colonial period, which has been linked to almost all of Africa's postindependence maladies, we first review works that uncover the lasting legacies of colonial investments in infrastructure and human capital and quantify the role of various extractive institutions, such as indirect rule and oppression associated with concessionary agreements. Second, we discuss the long-lasting impact of the "Scramble for Africa," which led to ethnic partitioning and the creation of artificial modern states. Third, we cover studies on the multifaceted legacy of the slave trades. Fourth, we analyze the contemporary role of various precolonial, ethnic-specific, institutional, and social traits such as political centralization. We conclude by offering some thoughts on what we view as open questions.
We document the short- and long-run effects of male-biased sex ratios. We exploit a natural historical experiment where large numbers of male convicts and far fewer female convicts were sent to ...Australia in the 18th and 19th centuries. In areas with more male-biased sex ratios, women were historically more likely to get married and less likely to work outside the home. In these areas today, both men and women continue to have more conservative attitudes towards women working, and women work fewer hours outside the home. While these women enjoy more leisure, they are also less likely to work in high-ranking occupations. We demonstrate that the consequences of uneven sex ratios on cultural attitudes, labour supply decisions, and occupational choices can persist in the long run, well after sex ratios are back to the natural rate. We document the roles of vertical cultural transmission and marriage homogamy in sustaining this cultural persistence.
During the 1970s, when doctrines like monetarism and new classical macroeconomics ushered in an era of neoliberal economic policymaking, Keynesian economics was pushed aside. It was almost forgotten ...that when Keynesian thinking had dominated economic policymaking in the middle decades of the twentieth century, it had underwritten postwar economic reconstruction in both Europe and Japan, and was largely responsible for the unprecedented prosperity and stable growth of the 1950s and 1960s. The global financial crisis and recession changed all that. Influential voices in progressive economics circles began to remind us how useful Keynesian ways of thinking could be again, especially in assisting us to come to terms with our economic predicaments. When politicians across the globe were confronted with economic crisis, almost by accident they introduced pragmatic and workable measures that bore all the hallmarks of Keynesianism. This book is about this fall and rise of Keynesian economics. Eatwell and Milgate range widely across the landscape that defines their subject matter. They consider how powerful Keynesian ideas can be when applied to our past and present economic problems. They show how helpful these ideas are in explaining why we came to find ourselves in the mess we are in. They examine where and how the analytical and methodological foundations of conventional macroeconomic wisdom went wrong. They set out a blueprint for an alternative that provides a clearer, more consistent, and more applicable approach to understanding how markets work. They also highlight the interpretive shortcomings that have come to characterize Keynes scholarship itself. They do all of this within the context of a provocative reconsideration of some of the most pressing economic problems that confront financial markets and the global economy today.
How do the media affect public support for democratic institutions in a fragile democracy? What role do they play in a dictatorial regime? We study these questions in the context of Germany of the ...1920s and 1930s. During the democratic period, when the Weimar government introduced progovernment political news, the growth of Nazi popularity slowed down in areas with access to radio. This effect was reversed during the campaign for the last competitive election as a result of the pro-Nazi radio broadcast following Hitler’s appointment as chancellor. During the consolidation of dictatorship, radio propaganda helped the Nazis enroll new party members. After the Nazis established their rule, radio propaganda incited anti-Semitic acts and denunciations of Jews to authorities by ordinary citizens. The effect of anti-Semitic propaganda varied depending on the listeners’ predispositions toward the message. Nazi radio was most effective in places where anti-Semitism was historically high and had a negative effect in places with historically low anti-Semitism.
Can a temporary economic shock to an important local industry influence long-run city population? To answer this question I study the large temporary shock to British cities caused by the U.S. Civil ...War (1861–1865), which reduced cotton supplies to Britain’s important cotton textile industry. I show that this event temporarily reduced the growth rate of cities specializing in cotton textile production, relative to other English cities, and led to a persistent change in the level of city population.
The early history of industrialization in the United States—famously known as “The American System of Manufactures”—exhibited four key features: the substitution of specialized intermediate inputs ...for skilled work in assembling final goods, the freedom with which knowledge has long been shared in the United States, a learning technology that leverages existing mechanical know-how in human capital accumulation, and increasing returns to intermediate inputs in processing final goods. Our endogenous growth model embodies these components and utilizes historical time series data on labor force “operatives” and the Census of Manufactures to calibrate the model’s parameters. Our simulation closely matches the 1.88% average per capita product growth in the United States from 1860 to date. The simulation predicts that growth will peak in 1980 and ultimately converge to 1.31%—a growth slowdown rooted from the beginning in the economization of skilled labor inherent in the American System. By 2000, simulated per capita product is 2.21 times larger than a counterfactual in which the American System of manufactures never existed.
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