Gospodarska kriza izazvana korona virusom Covid-19 jedinstvena je u dosadašnjoj ekonomskoj povijesti po načinu i brzini nastanka, globalnom obuhvatu i posljedicama. U tekstu se objašnjavaju mehanizmi ...utjecaja zdravstvenog šok na gospodarstvo te makroekonomski okvir ublažavanja i izlaska iz krize. Za analizu se koristi makroekonomski AS-AD model s inflacijom na vertikalnoj osi. Empirijske činjenice prikazuju slučaj Republike Hrvatske.
Članak se koristi teorijom promjene paradigme da bi istražio različite pristupe zadnjoj ekonomskoj krizi. Dolazi se do dvaju zaključaka, konceptualnog i supstancijalnog. Pokazuje se da je teško ...primijeniti teoriju promjene paradigme u analizi događaja gdje su promjene politika spore, te kada je sud o tome je li do promjene došlo ili nije moguć tek retrospektivno. No teorija promjene paradigme može nam pomoći da objasnimo odgovore na krizu u kojima se javljaju poteškoće u primjeni prevladavajućih ekonomskih ideja, ali i otpor njihovoj promjeni.
The doctoral thesis: „The impact of the European Central Bank monetary policy on the convergence process“, analyzes relevant theoretical and practical issues related to the European Central Bank ...monetary policy. The thesis has several objectives. Serbia and other countries from Central and Eastern Europe are facing a multitude of problems. Major causes of these problems are the flaws in economic policy, especially monetary and fiscal policy. Therefore, these countries often see the adoption of monetary policy from strong and stable countries as a way out. Many European countries look to the European Central Bank as the candidate, i.e. they look to adopt the monetary policy from the European Monetary Union. This objective was clearly articulated by every country whose main strategic goal was to join the European Union, as well as European monetary union later on. It is, however, debatable whether this solution would yield long-term benefits for the countries in transition. Recent events have shown that single monetary policy hasn’t been capable of properly addressing the problems of member states. The question is if the policy can be more flexible and accommodate for regional differences in development of the existing European 27-nation bloc, which is slated to be enlarged even further. The primary objective of the thesis is to establish whether the convergence of economic performances of member states took place in the EMU and what was the impact of single monetary policy on that process. At the time of the establishment of EMU, the prevailing opinion was that the environment of a monetary union, the single currency, intense intratrade and interlacing financial flows will lead to the convergence of economic cycles of member states, as well as their economic performances, i.e. that the member states will move towards the optimal currency area. Another objective of the thesis is to test the performance of ECB monetary policy and its effectiveness in achieving its main objective, conduct a critical analysis of the objective itself, evaluate its formulation, as well as to conduct a critical analysis of strategies used by the ECB. In addition, the paper analyzes and compares selected countries from Central and Southeast Europe with the EMU average. The baseline criteria for the selected countries were identical or similar. These are all countries in transition and former transition countries that underwent the process of substantial transformation and serious reforms during the last decade. Slovenia and Slovakia have made the biggest progress and have become a part of European Monetary Union. Therefore it’d be useful to know the extent to which they really integrated into the EMU and how similar is their performance to other EMU members. Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary joined EU in 2004 and have yet to meet the Maastricht criteria. Rumania and Bulgaria joined EU in 2007 and have the highest number of macroeconomic problems and are the farthest away from meeting the convergence criteria. Croatia is in the process of EU accession and is expected to join in July 2013. Candidate countries - Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro (as well as Turkey and Iceland) are seeking to join the EU. Serbia is at the very beginning of the path to EMU and just started with macroeconomic reforms and should be able to draw conclusions about the requirements and reforms that have to be carried out, from experiences of aforementioned countries – how far along in the convergence process are they, which problems have they encountered, the extent to which their economies are ready for the single monetary policy. Another objective of this paper, based on the analysis of monetary policy strategies and exchange rate regimes in the neighbouring countries that made significant progress towards EMU, is to make a recommendation for NBS monetary policy that will lead towards EMU convergence – specifically, which monetary policy strategy and which exchange rate regime had a better effect on macroeconomic results. Serbia is a country burdened by many macroeconomic imbalances. There is a multitude of issues in the monetary sphere as well – high degree of Euroisation, particularly high and fluctuating inflation, high inflationary expectations, high depreciation and a particularly fluctuating dinar exchange rate. Consequently, it is debatable if the current strategy of inflation targeting in Serbia is the best solution or if it would be better to use formal NBS focusing on the exchange rate. Various statistical and econometric methods were used in this paper, due to the complexity of the subject. The dispersion index – standard deviation and coefficient of variation was used as a starting point in the convergence analysis. This analysis is confirmed by sigmaconvergence tests, based on regression of standard deviation. The results achieved in terms of price stability have been established with descriptive inflation statistics, analysis of autoregressive inflation model, as well as autoregressive inflation rate coefficient. Granger causality test for various lagged values was applied in order to analyze joint dynamics of inflation rates, changes in M3 monetary aggregate and ECB reference rate. Correlation coefficients and cross correlation coefficients were used to measure the correlation between relevant variables. Based on the regression analysis of inflation in Serbia, we examined the effects of dynamics of monetary aggregates and foreign exchange rates on inflation rates; also, regression analysis on the effects of the reference rate change on inflation has been carried out. In addition, the paper analyses the effects of high Euroisation in Serbia on monetary policy effectiveness. The regression analysis was used here, with the six month EURIBOR and the NBS two-week repo rate as the independent variables, and the corporate loans and personal loans, as well as demand deposits and time deposits as the dependent variables. European Monetary Union is characterized by a number of systemic weaknesses, one of which is the insistence on neoliberal principles, no matter the cost and even in matters related to the ECB. Price stability is its main objective, while growth and employment are supplementary objectives. Although the average inflation in the Euro zone is low, inflation differentials are still present. This is one of the main reasons for increasing divergence in performances of member states and for the evident polarization process in the Monetary Union. There is no single fiscal policy to counter the single monetary policy. Fiscal policy remains at the national level and provides the Governments with the ability to respond to various economic shocks. Southern member states relied on expansive fiscal policy, while the growth model was based on high demand, financed with the cheap capital of the more successful „Northern“ member states. This resulted in large balance of payments deficits, budget deficits and increasing difficulty in loan servicing. The crisis has revealed major weaknesses in the functioning of EMU. It wasn’t an optimal currency area to begin with, nor has it moved towards it, although it is considered to be a prerequisite for successful implementation of single monetary policy. The existing difference in labour costs and productivity of factors of production has increased the gap in competitiveness and deepened the division between „the poor South and the rich North“. The financial markets also failed to do their job by relying on the full convergence scenario – because the approximation of interest rates on sovereign debts of member states occurred, despite large macroeconomic differences. The crisis caused a large scale intervention by the ECB, who deviated from basic principles of its monetary policy and acted as a lender of last resort for banks and other financial institutions, without which the transmission process of monetary policy would’ve been interrupted, as well as on the public debt markets, because otherwise the markets would’ve remained closed for some countries. Even though in practice, the strategy of inflation targeting failed to achieve satisfactory results, it remains the best option for Serbia. Although transition to exchange rate targeting is often advocated, it could have serious consequences for countries with high demand and outflow of foreign currency. On the other hand, due to the specific role of the Euro in Serbia, it wouldn’t be advisable to allow its free fluctuation. NBS should prevent excessive exchange rate fluctuations, without dictating its movement, and always in a transparent and predictable manner. A major challenge for the NBS in the future will be to decrease the level of Euroisation of the economy. This will impact the efficiency of the reference rate as the main instrument of monetary policy. Although its effect on inflation is statistically significant, its effect on lending and deposit bank activities is not. If Serbia wants to join the EMU, given its numerous macroeconomic imbalances, it will have to undertake many structural reforms in order to find the path to convergence. That means having a healthy, responsible and coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, as well as serious investments in the real sector. In the long run, only a strong real sector of an economy can provide the exchange rate stability, low and stable inflation, and confidence in the local currency.
Doktorska disertacija: „Monetarna politika Evropske centralne banke i njene posledice na proces konvergencije“, za predmet istraživanja postavlja relevantna teorijska i praktična pitanja vezana za monetarnu politiku koju sprovodi Evropska centralna banka. Rad ima više ciljeva. Srbija, kao i druge zemlje Centralne i Istočne Evrope suočene su sa brojnim problemima. Važan uzrok tih problema jesu nedostaci ekonomske politike, pre svega monetarne i fiskalne. Zbog toga se često u ovim zemljama nameće ideja usvajanja monetarne politik
Cilj ovoga rada je utvrditi osnovna obilježja zadovoljstva poslom u 2008. godini na španjolskom tržištu rada koje su obilježile duboka recesija i nestabilnost. Razlikujemo osobne i poslovno ...uvjetovane čimbenike kako bismo utvrdili koji bolje pojašnjavaju zadovoljstvo poslom. U tu svrhu koristili smo podatke iz istraživanja Quality of Labor Life (Kvaliteta radnog života) za 2007., 2008., 2009. i 2010. godinu koje je provelo Ministarstvo rada i socijalne sigurnosti u Španjolskoj. Pokazujemo da varijable povezane s poslom bolje objašnjavaju zadovoljstvo poslom putem linearnih modela (ANOVA). Isto tako eliminiramo interakcije između 14 varijabli povezanih s poslom kroz abnalizu glavnih komponenata. Na temelju dobivenih čimbenika predlažemo stupnjevanu višestruku (multiplu) regresijsku analizu koja objašnjava kako varijable povezane s poslom utječu na zadovoljstvo poslom. Čimbenik 1 povezan s aktivnošću, osobnim razvojem i motivacijom je onaj koji bolje objašnjava zadovoljstvo poslom svake godine. Zaključili smo da osobna motivacija najviše utječe na zadovoljstvo poslom; plaće najmanje utječu na zadovoljstvo poslom tijekom ekonomskih kriza i ekonomskog rasta. Isto tako zaključili smo da je tijekom ekonomske krize zadovoljstvo poslom veće, dok stabilnost i plaće nisu, jer su tada poslovi manje sigurni, a plaće su manje.
Autorica analizira odgovor Europske unije na još uvijek aktualnu ekonomsku
krizu, usredotočujući se na problem zakonodavne i institucionalne fragmentacije.
Tvrdi da autoritarno upravljanje krizom – ...poticano rječnikom „stanja nužde“
– podriva demokratsku odgovornost svojim oslanjanjem na izvršnu diskreciju
i intergovernmentalizam. Kroz analizu jurisprudencije Suda Europske unije i
uz pogled izbliza na točno funkcioniranje i implikacije ultra vires djelovanja
Europske središnje banke, pokazuje kako je Lisabonski ugovor žrtvovan u ime
nužde stvaranja Ersatz prava Unije, koje bolje odgovara neposrednim potrebama
reformiranja Ekonomske i monetarne unije. Drži da su intergovernmentalni
instrumenti ne samo “protuustavno” rekvirirali sudjelovanje institucija EU, već i da
su naštetili legitimitetu Unije uspostavivši političku upravu netaknutu zahtjevima
demokratske odgovornosti. Posljedično podčinjavanje političkog i socijalnog ustava
onom ekonomskom dovodi do abdikacije prava i podrivanja integriteta pravnog
poretka Unije.
Tramvajski promet u Puli, započevši svoje trodesetljetno prometovanje 1904., percipiran je kao segment modernizacije Pule koja je tada doživljavala svoju populacijsku, urbanističku i infrastrukturnu ...ekspanziju. S druge pak strane, političke i ekonomske krize u gradu utjecale su na funkcioniranje tramvajskoga prometa, odnosno na njegove zaposlenike kao njegovu socijalnu komponentu. Problemi pulskih tramvajaca započeli su već prve godine njegova prometovanja kroz sitna nezadovoljstva, a kulminirali su štrajkovima između 1910. i 1912., koji su se nastavili i nakon Prvoga svjetskog rata. Uzroci njihovih nezadovoljstava koja su se očitovala kroz štrajkove bili su velik broj slabo plaćenih radnika, koji su radili u nepovoljnim uvjetima, uz česte otkaze kao rezultate nepovoljnih ugovora te nedovoljne brige lokalnih vlasti. Nerijetko su njihovi prosvjedi bili rabljeni u tada aktualne političke svrhe, pri čemu su socijalni problemi poprimali nacionalnu razinu, šireći međunacionalne antagonizme. Neriješeni egzistencijalni statusi nerijetko su dovodili i do sukoba među tramvajcima, kao i do raspada njihovih obitelji, a sami štrajkovi i pobune djelomično su utjecali na političke i ekonomske prilike, posebice na svakodnevicu koju su osjećali stanovnici kroz neredovitost prometovanja, neprofesionalnost osoblja zbog učestalosti otkaza i novozapošljavanih slabo priučenih tramvajaca te time uzrokovane česte prometne nesreće.
The thesis is dedicated to the analysis of and research into Greek-Yugoslav
diplomatic relations during the last Government of the Greek Prime Minister
Eleftherios Venizelos (1928-1932), in the local ...setting of the Balkans, as
well as in a wider, European context. The relationship between the two
peoples, geographically close and directed to one another especially in the
recent history of mutual diplomatic relations, was examined in the context of
their changeability conditioned by the intricate political and ideological
factors, as well as by economic and cultural factors of the complex interwar
period. Particular attention is dedicated to the liaisons of Greece and the
Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes (Kingdom of Yugoslavia) in the given
chronological outline, to the prehistory of their diplomatic communication,
conditioned by their allied appearance on the international political scene
from 1813. to 1923, as well as to the attempts to overcome a shift and chill
in the official relations between Athens and Belgrade, recorded from 1923. to
1928, by means of bilateral negotiations and efforts to restore the former
balance and cooperation. A special emphasis in the process of evaluation and
defining of the factors that influenced the diplomacy of the two countries
was placed on the “Macedonian issue”, which was the crucial cause for the
inconsistency in their relations, both prior to and during the researched
period - the term of the last Government of the Greek Prime Minister
Venizelos. Further emphasis is given t o the influence of the Great Powers,
France and Italy, on the resolving of Greek-Yugoslav disputes. The research
also covered the effects of certain diplomatic initiatives for rapprochement
between the two neighbours, undertaken by the representatives of the Greek
foreign policy, including Mr. Venizelos himself, but also by the Yugoslav
state establishment led by King Alexander Karageorgevich of Yugoslavia. In
spite of the changed domestic circumstances in both countries, as well as the
new redistribution of power on the international scene, this restoration of
the close relations between Yugoslavia and Greece, that occurred at the
beginning of the researched period, introduced the attempts to implement the
idea of the Balkans pacification, and in a wider perspective served as the
basis for realization of the intention to make the relations in the Balkans
independent of the influence of the Great European Powers by signing a treaty
between the Balkan states. The author concludes that the evolution of the
Greek-Yugoslav relations was achieved through the official resolving of
certain conflicting issues, though largely due to the involvement of the
Great Powers, and despite the fact that it represented only one segment of
the complex Balkan relations in the context of the new European interwar
reality, it contributed to the process of establishing the new order in the
Balkans, the order whose outlines were defined precisely in the researched
period and context.
Rad je posvećen istraživanju i analizi grčko-jugoslovenskih diplomatskih
odnosa tokom poslednje vlade grčkog premijera, Elefteriosa Venizelosa,
(1928-1932), u lokalnom, balkanskom okviru, kao i u širem evropskom
kontekstu. Odnosi dva naroda, geografski bliska i upućena jedan na drugoga,
posebno tokom novije istorije međusobnih diplomatskih veza, posmatrani su iz
aspekta njihove promenljivosti pod uticajem složenih političko-ideoloških
činilaca, ali i ekonomskih i kulturnih faktora kompleksnog međuratnog
perioda. Naročita pažnja posvećena je vezama Grčke i Kraljevine Srba Hrvata i
Slovenaca (Kraljevine Jugoslavije) u navedenim hronološkim okvirima,
predistoriji njihove diplomatske komunikacije, određenom savezničkim nastupom
na međunarodnoj političkoj sceni od 1913. do 1923, kao i nastojanjima da se
zaokret i zahlađenje u zvaničnim relacijama Atine i Beograda, zabeleženi u
razdoblju od 1923. do 1928, prevaziđu putem bilateralnih pregovora i
uspostavljanja nekadašnje ravnoteže i obnove saradnje. Poseban akcenat u
procesu evaluacije i definisanja činilaca koji su uticali na diplomatiju
dveju zemalja, stavljen je na “makedonsku problematiku“, presudan faktor koji
je uticao na promenljivost intenziteta njihovih odnosa, kako tokom ranijeg,
tako i za vreme istraživanog perioda, vremena poslednje vlade grčkog
premijera Venizelosa. Posebna pažnja poklonjena je uticaju velikih sila,
Francuske i Italije, na razrešavanje grčko-jugoslovenskih razlika. Takođe,
istraživani su i efekti pojedinih diplomatskih inicijativa na ponovnom
približavanju dva suseda, pokretanih od strane predstavnika grčke spoljne
politike, i samog Venizelosa, ali i jugoslovenskog državnog vrha, predvođenog
kraljem Aleksandrom Karađorđevićem. Uprkos izmenjenim unutrašnjim političkim
okolnostima u dve zemlje, kao i novoj preraspodeli snaga na međunarodnoj
sceni, ovo ponovno zbližavanje Jugoslavije i Grčke, ostvareno početkom
proučavanog perioda, predstavilo je uvod u pokušaje implementacije ideje o
pacifikaciji Balkana, a na jednom širem planu, i osnovu za sprovođenje namere
da se međubalkanski odnosi otrgnu od presudnog uticaja velikih evropskih sila
putem potpisivanja jednog pakta balkanskih država. Autor zaključuje, da je
evolucija u grčko-jugoslovenskim odnosima dostignuta zvaničnim razrešavanjem
određenih konfliktnih pitanja, iako u velikoj meri ostvarena zahvaljujući
političkim posredovanjem velikih sila, i predstavljajući samo segment
složenih međubalkanskih odnosa u uslovima nove evropske realnosti međuratnog
perioda, ipak doprinela procesu uspostavljanja jednog novog balkanskog
poretka, kome su smernice definisane upravo u istraživanom razdoblju i
kontekstu.
U ovom radu cilj nam je u osnovnim crtama razmotriti fenomen populizma. Pritom polazimo od stajališta kako je jačanje populističkih stranaka i pokreta, te uopće radikalizaciju europskog političkog ...prostora potrebno sagledati u perspektivi krize demokracije i krize ekonomskog modela u Europi. Kriza demokracije prije svega je
kriza reprezentacije (Mou$ e, 2013.) i simptom stanja u kojem se mogućnosti utjecaja glasača na politički konsenzus elita smanjuju (npr. Crouch, 2007.). Populistički akteri obećavaju vratiti “ukradenu” demokraciju “narodu”, a osim značajnim razinama biračke
podrške populistima, svjedočimo i sve češćem korištenju populističkih strategija kod mnogih mainstream političkih aktera.
Populizam može ozbiljno narušavati demokratski proces i zaštitu ljudskih prava, ali i razotkriti mogućnosti za oporavak demokracije. Ne zaboravljajući na opasnosti koje populistički projekti u većoj ili manjoj mjeri nose, smatramo da ih je potrebno sagledati ne isključivo kao “opasnu smetnju” već prije svega kao ozbiljan simptom krize demokracije. Naime, populizam upućuje na slabosti modernih demokracija te na političke vrijednosti, želje i afekte građana koji ostaju bez predstavništva u političkoj areni. Populistički akteri svojom radikalizacijom politike mogu otvoriti pute k reduciranju
ekonomskih nejednakosti i uključivanju većeg broja građana kao kritičkih aktera u političku sferu, kao i djelovati prema isključivanju, širenju netolerancije i daljnjem udaljavanju populacija od demokratskih načela.
Globalna financijska i ekonomska kriza iznimno je opteretila javne financije država članica EU, uključujući i Sloveniju. Trenutačni prioritet svake zemlje jest osigurati održivost javnih financija. ...Većina zemalja članica EU je 2012. godine službeno još uvijek imala prekomjerni deficit odnosno deficit im je prelazio dozvoljenu razinu od 3% BDP-a. Mjere za konsolidaciju javnih financija usmjerene su na smanjivanje javne potrošnje te uglavnom uključuju promjene u organizaciji javnoga sektora, socijalne sigurnosti i načinima umirovljenja. Države članice morale su se suočiti sa smanjivanjem plaća u javnom sektoru, kombinirajući smanjivanje i zamrzavanje plaća sa smanjenjem zapošljavanja te drugim promjenama uvjeta zapošljavanja. Cilj rada je prikazati i usporediti sadašnje stanja javnih financija u odabranim državama članicama EU – Sloveniji, Nizozemskoj, Francuskoj i Italiji – te prikazati i usporediti mjere štednje u javim sektorima navedenih zemalja, posebno one koje se tiču javnih službenika. Usporedba daje uvid u sličnosti i razlike mjera štednje koje primjenjuju odabrane zemlje kao prvi korak prema stabilizaciji gospodarskog stanja. Negativne posljedice usvojenih mjera štednje također se moraju uzeti u obzir. U radu se navodi i potreba za mjerama koje bi potaknule gospodarski oporavak i rast te smanjile nezaposlenost.
CIRKULARNOST EKONOMSKIH TEORIJA Đurašković, Jovan; Radović, Milivoje; Božović, Žarko
Informatologia,
07/2016, Letnik:
49, Številka:
1-2
Paper
Odprti dostop
U radu se analizira razvoj ekonomskih teorija u periodu krize. Akcent je stavljen na dvije krize: veliku depresiju i savremenu globalnu ekonomsku krizu. Cilj rada je da se, analizom globalnih kriza, ...kao perioda transformacije ukupnog privrednog ambijenta, testira pretpostavka o cirkularnosti ekonomskih teorija. U radu je detaljnije objašnjen model kejznijanske doktrine koji je nastao nakon perioda velike depresije. U drugom dijelu su objašnjeni trendovi razvoja ekonomske teorije između dva krizna perioda, kao i teorijski kontekst u kojem se razvijala savremena globalna ekonomska kriza.
Istraživanjem je utvrđeno da u periodima globalnih ekonomskih fluktuacija i poremećaja dolazi do preispitivanja vodećeg teorijskog okvira u ekonomskoj politici i promjene ekonomske paradigme. Neadekvatna državna intervencija u periodu velike depresije, posebno u SAD, bila je važna pouka za nosioce ekonomskih politika u savremenoj krizi. U svjetskim privredama koje su pogođene krizom, sporovedene su anticiklične mjere monetarne i fiskalne politike kejnzijanskog tipa. Nakon dugogodišnje dominacije nove liberalne doktrine u ekonomskoj politici, došlo je do nagle reafirmacije kejnzijanske koncepcije.
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