Because of the very high complexity of modern optimization models based on single trees, uncertainties are often disregarded. In this study, we present a modelling approach that allows partial ...harvesting but is still simple enough to consider risk. Our modelling approach investigates whether the inclusion of timber price uncertainty influences the harvesting schedule. The model considers positive growth response to the density reduction that follows harvesting. Testing the impact of uncertainty, we define the discounted net revenues of each harvest operation as random variables. We compare harvest scheduling both with and without the inclusion of uncertainty. We first model growth response based on a partial-harvest schedule, without integrating uncertainty from timber price fluctuations. The results show that harvesting tree cohorts at different times is financially optimal. We run the same model again, including the risk of timber price fluctuations. The inclusion of risk leads to slightly greater differences in recommended harvest timings. Because of the small difference observed, we conclude that it is unlikely that risk arising from fluctuating timber prices would strongly affect the results for more complex forest economic models concerning the optimal harvest schedules.
This study provides empirical support for theoretical models that allow for time-varying rare disaster risk. Using a database of 447 international political crises during the period 1918–2006, we ...create a crisis index that shows substantial variation over time. Changes in this crisis index, our proxy for changes in perceived disaster probability, have a large impact on both the mean and volatility of world stock market returns. Crisis risk is positively correlated with the earnings–price ratio and the dividend yield. Cross-sectional tests also show that crisis risk is priced: Industries that are more crisis risk sensitive yield higher returns.
Levered Returns GOMES, JOAO F.; SCHMID, LUKAS
The Journal of finance (New York),
April 2010, Letnik:
65, Številka:
2
Journal Article
Recenzirano
This paper revisits the theoretical relation between financial leverage and stock returns in a dynamic world where both corporate investment and financing decisions are endogenous. We find that the ...link between leverage and stock returns is more complex than static textbook examples suggest, and depends on the investment opportunities available to the firm. In the presence of financial market imperfections, leverage and investment are generally correlated so that highly levered firms are also mature firms with relatively more (safe) book assets and fewer (risky) growth opportunities. A quantitative version of our model matches several stylized facts about leverage and returns.
Financial constraints and firm dynamics Bottazzi, Giulio; Secchi, Angelo; Tamagni, Federico
Small business economics,
01/2014, Letnik:
42, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
This study analyzes the effect of financial constraints (FCs) on firm dynamics. We measure FCs with an official credit rating, which captures availability and cost of external resources. We find that ...FCs undermine average firm growth, induce anti-correlation in growth patterns and reduce the dependence of growth volatility on size. FCs are also associated with higher volatility and asymmetries in growth shock distributions, preventing young fast-growing firms especially from seizing attractive growth opportunities and further deteriorating the growth prospects of already slow-growing firms, particularly if old. The sub-diffusive nature of the growth process of constrained firms is compatible with the distinctive properties of their size distribution.
High-precision time sequence forecasting is a complicated cyber-physical system (CPS) task. Due to the diversity of data scales and types, the classic time-series prediction model meets the challenge ...to deliver accurate prediction results for many forms of time-series data. This work proposes a hybrid model with long short-term memory (LSTM) and embedded empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) based on the entropy fusion feature. First, we apply EEMD in entropy fusion feature long short-term memory (ELSTM) to lessen pattern confusion and edge effects in traditional empirical mode decomposition (EMD). The sequence is then divided into intrinsic mode functions (IMF) by using EEMD. Then, feature vectors are constructed between IMFs and their respective information entropy for feature merging. LSTM is used to build a full connection network for each entropy fusion feature IMF subsequence for prediction and each type of IMF subsequence as the feature dimension to obtain its prediction results. Finally, the output results of all IMF subsequences are reconstructed to obtain the final prediction result. Compared with the LSTM method, the performance of the proposed method has been improved 64.33% on the evaluation metric MAPE. The proposed model has also delivered the best prediction outcomes across four different time-series datasets. The experimental results conclusively show that the proposed method outperforms other models compared.
We have been observing large fluctuations and price increases in electricity markets in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic, rising energy costs, political instability and increasing demand for ...electricity have been the factors intensifying the problems. This causes uncertainty related to maintaining energy security. Energy security is an element of the national security system. In this context, the question arises whether Polish energy companies are able to adapt to the growing demand for electricity while meeting the growing environmental requirements. Moreover, it remains to be seen how the current energy crisis will affect the financial condition of energy companies in Poland and whether companies from the energy sector will benefit from this crisis. Another issue is the impact of the current crisis on the sense of energy security of consumers. There are many factors affecting energy security. This study focuses on economic and financial factors. The article aims to assess the energy security of consumers from the perspective of the stability of energy prices and the financial condition of companies from the energy industry in Poland in the context of the global energy crisis.
We analyze the board of directors' equilibrium strategies for setting CEO incentive pay and overseeing financial reporting and their effects on the level of earnings management. We show that an ...increase in CEO equity incentives does not necessarily increase earnings management because directors adjust their oversight effort in response to a change in CEO incentives. If the board's responsibilities for setting CEO pay and monitoring are separated through the formation of committees, then the compensation committee will increase the use of stock-based CEO pay, as the increased cost of oversight is borne by the audit committee. Our model generates predictions relating the board committee structure to the pay-performance sensitivity of CEO compensation, the quality of board oversight, and the level of earnings management.
A reliable report on the company's financial situation can be obtained by analyzing costs, revenues, profit margin and the development of net profit. To study this information, we use a range of ...indicators from the financial analysis environment. The financial analysis results are interpreted and put into business practice by the accounting units. The basic information sources used in financial analysis are the financial statements of business companies. The article aims to point out the development of revenues, the total net profit of grain growers in the time horizon 2014-2022, as well as the profit margin of the industry for the period 2014-2022. The subject of the analysis was agricultural enterprises, from which we selected one accounting unit that operates in the agriculture sector. Within the industry, they focused our attention on the segment of cereal growers in Slovakia in the time horizon 2014-2022; the mentioned period is interesting because the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine marked it. We presented the analysis results in the final part of the article.
Scheme of the Trigeneration System – An energetic and economic assessment.
Display omitted
•Thermoeconomic model to assess the feasibility of trigeneration systems was made.•A case study based on the ...energy demands of an ice cream factory was analyzed.•Energy utilization factor of the trigeneration system increases approximately to 74%.•Case 3 shows good financial return since 26.32% IRR and 3 year of payback was obtained.
This work presents an energy and financial analysis of an energy trigeneration system, in which electricity, steam and chilled water are produced simultaneously using natural gas as source of input. The system consists of an internal combustion engine, a domestic heat recovery unit, a LiBr/H2O absorption chiller to produce chilled water and a recovery boiler to produce steam. In this system, the exhaust gases produced by the engine are used to drive an absorption chiller through a heat exchanger and can also drive a recovery boiler. According to the final results, and considering total engine load, the overall system of trigeneration presented an energy utilization factor of 74%, with average electricity, cooling and heating production of 214.1 kW, 35.7 kW and 162.1 kW, respectively. A case study based on the energy demands of an ice cream industry is presented in this article for the financial analysis of the system. In order to determine the best configuration for the company, the one that presented a higher financial return, three scenarios were developed for the application of cogeneration or trigeneration in the company. They were analyzed on the financial methodology of calculation of return on investment, using as parameters the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR) and the simple payback, based on an interest rate of 6.4% and a project period of 10 years. The first two scenarios created were not economically viable, presenting a negative NPV. However, scenario 3 presented good financial return result, presenting a NPV of $ 269,390.40, a 26.32% IRR and a 3.4 year simple payback, making it the best financial scenario for the company. The results of this work indicate that the configuration proposed in scenario 3 provides several useful results with high efficiency and a good financial return for the company.
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