To (i) determine the proportion of deaths from CVD that could be avoided in both rural and metropolitan Australia if public health recommendations were met; (ii) assess the impact on the rural CVD ...mortality; and (iii) determine if policy priorities should be different by rurality for CVD prevention.
A macro-simulation modelling study of population data. Population, risk factor and CVD death data stratified by rurality were analysed using the Preventable Risk Integrated Model. The baseline scenario was the current risk factor levels (including physical activity, smoking, diet and alcohol). The counterfactual scenario was the population levels of these risk factors expected if public health recommendations were met.
Metropolitan and rural Australia.
Rural- and metropolitan-dwelling adults in Australia.
Both populations would experience similar relative declines in the proportion of deaths from CVD. A total of 14 892 deaths from CVD would be avoided annually; with similar declines in the proportions of deaths by rurality. Critically, the order of policy priorities for public health recommendation attainment would differ by rurality CVD prevention, with addressing fat intakes being a higher priority in rural areas.
Achieving public health recommendations in Australia would result in large declines in CVD mortality. Despite declines in overall CVD mortality under this scenario, an inequality in CVD burden would persist for rural populations. The order of risk factor priorities would differ by rurality.
Robust estimates of demographic parameters are critical for effective wildlife conservation and management but are difficult to obtain for elusive species. We estimated the breeding and adult ...population sizes, as well as the minimum population size, in a high‐density brown bear population on the Shiretoko Peninsula, in Hokkaido, Japan, using DNA‐based pedigree reconstruction. A total of 1288 individuals, collected in and around the Shiretoko Peninsula between 1998 and 2020, were genotyped at 21 microsatellite loci. Among them, 499 individuals were identified by intensive genetic sampling conducted in two consecutive years (2019 and 2020) mainly by noninvasive methods (e.g., hair and fecal DNA). Among them, both parents were assigned for 330 bears, and either maternity or paternity was assigned to 47 and 76 individuals, respectively. The subsequent pedigree reconstruction indicated a range of breeding and adult (≥4 years old) population sizes: 128–173 for female breeders and 66–91 male breeders, and 155–200 for female adults and 84–109 male adults. The minimum population size was estimated to be 449 (252 females and 197 males) in 2019. Long‐term continuous genetic sampling prior to a short‐term intensive survey would enable parentage to be identified in a population with a high probability, thus enabling reliable estimates of breeding population size for elusive species.
This study estimated the breeding and adult population sizes, as well as the minimum population size, in a high‐density brown bear population on the Shiretoko Peninsula, in Hokkaido, Japan, using DNA‐based pedigree reconstruction. This study showed that combination of a short‐term intensive genetic survey and long‐term continuous genetic sampling prior to it enables parentage to be identified in a population with a high probability, thus enabling reliable estimates of breeding population size for elusive species.
The interplay of natural selection and genetic drift, influenced by geographic isolation, mating systems and population size, determines patterns of genetic diversity within species. The sperm whale ...provides an interesting example of a longâlived species with few geographic barriers to dispersal. Worldwide mtDNA diversity is relatively low, but highly structured among geographic regions and social groups, attributed to female philopatry. However, it is unclear whether this female philopatry is due to geographic regions or social groups, or how this might vary on a worldwide scale. To answer these questions, we combined mtDNA information for 1091 previously published samples with 542 newly obtained DNA profiles (394âbp mtDNA, sex, 13 microsatellites) including the previously unsampled Indian Ocean, and social group information for 541 individuals. We found low mtDNA diversity (ÏÂ =Â 0.430%) reflecting an expansion event <80Â 000Â years bp, but strong differentiation by ocean, among regions within some oceans, and among social groups. In comparison, microsatellite differentiation was low at all levels, presumably due to maleâmediated gene flow. A hierarchical amova showed that regions were important for explaining mtDNA variance in the Indian Ocean, but not Pacific, with social group sampling in the Atlantic too limited to include in analyses. Social groups were important in partitioning mtDNA and microsatellite variance within both oceans. Therefore, both geographic philopatry and social philopatry influence genetic structure in the sperm whale, but their relative importance differs by sex and ocean, reflecting breeding behaviour, geographic features and perhaps a more recent origin of sperm whales in the Pacific. By investigating the interplay of evolutionary forces operating at different temporal and geographic scales, we show that sperm whales are perhaps a unique example of a worldwide population expansion followed by rapid assortment due to female social organization.
The human species has evolved to dominate the biosphere: global anthropomass is now an order of magnitude greater than the mass of all wild terrestrial mammals. As a result, our dependence on ...harvesting the products of photosynthesis for food, animal feed, raw materials, and energy has grown to make substantial global impacts. During the past two millennia these harvests, and changes of land use due to deforestation and conversions of grasslands and wetlands, have reduced the stock of global terrestrial plant mass by as much as 45 percent, with the twentiethcentury reduction amounting to more than 15 percent. Current annual harvests of phytomass have been a significant share of the global net primary productivity (NPP, the total amount of new plant tissues created by photosynthesis). Some studies put the human appropriation of NPP (the ratio of these two variables) as high as 40 percent but the measure itself is problematic. Future population growth and improved quality of life will result in additional claims on the biosphere, but options to accommodate these demands exist without severely compromising the irreplaceable biospheric services.
Did Highways Cause Suburbanization? Baum-Snow, Nathaniel
The Quarterly journal of economics,
05/2007, Letnik:
122, Številka:
2
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Between 1950 and 1990, the aggregate population of central cities in the United States declined by 17 percent despite population growth of 72 percent in metropolitan areas as a whole. This paper ...assesses the extent to which the construction of new limited access highways has contributed to central city population decline. Using planned portions of the interstate highway system as a source of exogenous variation, empirical estimates indicate that one new highway passing through a central city reduces its population by about 18 percent. Estimates imply that aggregate central city population would have grown by about 8 percent had the interstate highway system not been built.
Numerous collecting expeditions of Theobroma cacao L. germplasm have been undertaken in Latin-America. However, most of this germplasm has not contributed to cacao improvement because its ...relationship to cultivated selections was poorly understood. Germplasm labeling errors have impeded breeding and confounded the interpretation of diversity analyses. To improve the understanding of the origin, classification, and population differentiation within the species, 1241 accessions covering a large geographic sampling were genotyped with 106 microsatellite markers. After discarding mislabeled samples, 10 genetic clusters, as opposed to the two genetic groups traditionally recognized within T. cacao, were found by applying Bayesian statistics. This leads us to propose a new classification of the cacao germplasm that will enhance its management. The results also provide new insights into the diversification of Amazon species in general, with the pattern of differentiation of the populations studied supporting the palaeoarches hypothesis of species diversification. The origin of the traditional cacao cultivars is also enlightened in this study.
Stable isotope analyses are increasingly employed to characterise population niche widths. The convex hull area (TA) in a δ(13)C-δ(15)N biplot has been used as a measure of isotopic niche width, but ...concerns exist over its dependence on sample size and associated difficulties in among-population comparisons. Recently a more robust method was proposed for estimating and comparing isotopic niche widths using standard ellipse areas (SEA), but this approach has yet to be tested with empirical stable isotope data. The two methods measure different kind of isotopic niche areas, but both are now widely used to characterise isotopic niche widths of populations. We used simulated data and an extensive empirical dataset from two fish populations to test the influence of sample size on the observed isotopic niche widths (TA and SEA). We resampled the original datasets to generate 5000 new samples for different numbers of observations from 5 to 80 to examine the statistical distributions of niche area estimates for increasing sample size. Our results illustrate how increasing sample size increased the observed TA; even sample sizes much higher than n = 30 did not improve the precision for the TA method. SEA was less sensitive to sample size, but the natural variation in our empirical fish δ(13)C and δ(15)N data still resulted in considerable uncertainty around the mean estimates of niche width, reducing the precision particularly with sample sizes n<30. These results confirm that the TA method is less appropriate for estimating population isotopic niche areas using small samples, especially when considerable population level isotope variation is expected. The results also indicate a need for caution when using SEA as a measure of trophic niche widths for consumers, particularly with low sample sizes and when the distribution and range for population isotope values are not known.
India began COVID-19 vaccination in January 2021, initially targeting healthcare and frontline workers. The vaccination strategy was expanded in a phased manner and currently covers all individuals ...aged 18 years and above. India experienced a severe second wave of COVID-19 during March-June 2021. We conducted a fourth nationwide serosurvey to estimate prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the general population aged ≥6 years and healthcare workers (HCWs).
We did a cross-sectional study between 14 June and 6 July 2021 in the same 70 districts across 20 states and 1 union territory where 3 previous rounds of serosurveys were conducted. From each district, 10 clusters (villages in rural areas and wards in urban areas) were selected by the probability proportional to population size method. From each district, a minimum of 400 individuals aged ≥6 years from the general population (40 individuals from each cluster) and 100 HCWs from the district public health facilities were included. The serum samples were tested for the presence of IgG antibodies against S1-RBD and nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2 using chemiluminescence immunoassay. We estimated the weighted and test-adjusted seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, along with 95% CIs, based on the presence of antibodies to S1-RBD and/or nucleocapsid protein. Of the 28,975 individuals who participated in the survey, 2,892 (10%) were aged 6-9 years, 5,798 (20%) were aged 10-17 years, and 20,285 (70%) were aged ≥18 years; 15,160 (52.3%) participants were female, and 21,794 (75.2%) resided in rural areas. The weighted and test-adjusted prevalence of IgG antibodies against S1-RBD and/or nucleocapsid protein among the general population aged ≥6 years was 67.6% (95% CI 66.4% to 68.7%). Seroprevalence increased with age (p < 0.001) and was not different in rural and urban areas (p = 0.822). Compared to unvaccinated adults (62.3%, 95% CI 60.9% to 63.7%), seroprevalence was significantly higher among individuals who had received 1 vaccine dose (81.0%, 95% CI 79.6% to 82.3%, p < 0.001) and 2 vaccine doses (89.8%, 95% CI 88.4% to 91.1%, p < 0.001). The seroprevalence of IgG antibodies among 7,252 HCWs was 85.2% (95% CI 83.5% to 86.7%). Important limitations of the study include the survey design, which was aimed to estimate seroprevalence at the national level and not at a sub-national level, and the non-participation of 19% of eligible individuals in the survey.
Nearly two-thirds of individuals aged ≥6 years from the general population and 85% of HCWs had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 by June-July 2021 in India. As one-third of the population is still seronegative, it is necessary to accelerate the coverage of COVID-19 vaccination among adults and continue adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions.
To examine trends in the incidence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) from 2005 to 2014 overall and by serological status as compared with 1995-2004 and 1985-1994.
We evaluated RA incidence trends in a ...population-based inception cohort of individuals aged
18 years who first fulfilled the 1987 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria for RA between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2014. Incidence rates were estimated and were age-adjusted and sex-adjusted to the white population in the USA in 2010. Trends in incidence were examined using Poisson regression methods.
The 2005-2014 incidence cohort comprised 427 patients: mean age 55.4 years, 68% female, 51% rheumatoid factor (RF) positive and 50% anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody positive. The overall age-adjusted and sex-adjusted annual RA incidence in 2005-2014 was 41/100 000 population (age-adjusted incidence: 53/100 000 in women and 29/100 000 in men). While these estimates were similar to the 1995-2004 decade, there was a decline in the incidence of RF-positive RA in 2005-2014 compared with the previous two decades (p=0.004), with a corresponding increase in RF-negative cases (p<0.001). Smoking rates declined and obesity rates increased from earlier decades to more recent years.
Significant increase in incidence of RF-negative RA and decrease in RF-positive RA in 2005-2014 compared with previous decades was found using 1987 ACR criteria. The incidence of RA overall during this period remained similar to the previous decade. The changing prevalence of environmental factors, such as smoking, obesity and others, may have contributed to these trends. Whether these trends represent a changing serological profile of RA requires further investigation.
The gharial (Gavialis gangeticus) is a critically endangered crocodylian, endemic to the Indian subcontinent. The species has experienced severe population decline during the twentieth century owing ...to habitat loss, poaching, and mortalities in passive fishing. Its extant populations have largely recovered through translocation programmes initiated in 1975. Understanding the genetic status of these populations is crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of the ongoing conservation efforts. This study assessed the genetic diversity, population structure, and evidence of genetic bottlenecks of the two managed populations inhabiting the Chambal and Girwa Rivers, which hold nearly 80% of the global gharial populations. We used seven polymorphic nuclear microsatellite loci and a 520 bp partial fragment of the mitochondrial control region (CR). The overall mean allelic richness (Ar) was 2.80 ± 0.40, and the observed (Ho) and expected (He) heterozygosities were 0.40 ± 0.05 and 0.39 ± 0.05, respectively. We observed low levels of genetic differentiation between populations (F
= 0.039, P < 0.05; G'
= 0.058, P < 0.05 Jost's D = 0.016, P < 0.05). The bottleneck analysis using the M ratio (Chambal = 0.31 ± 0.06; Girwa = 0.41 ± 0.12) suggested the presence of a genetic bottleneck in both populations. The mitochondrial CR also showed a low level of variation, with two haplotypes observed in the Girwa population. This study highlights the low level of genetic diversity in the two largest managed gharial populations in the wild. Hence, it is recommended to assess the genetic status of extant wild and captive gharial populations for planning future translocation programmes to ensure long-term survival in the wild.
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