To assess climate change impact on the hydrology of Izmit Bay, a coupled model chain using the results of four combinations of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and ...consisting two hydrological models (mGROWA and PROMET) and one hydrodynamic model (MIKE 3HD) was established. Climate model data of the 4 GCM-RCM combinations were applied to both hydrological models. The resulting 8 streamflow data of the hydrological models were then applied to the MIKE 3HD to assess possible hydrodynamic situations in Izmit Bay. Related model results indicate a range of possible future streamflow regimes suitable for the analysis of climate change impact on Izmit Bay. In order to evaluate the effects of the hydrological changes only on the bay, the bay was considered as closed in terms of hydrodynamics. There is a clear indication that the climate change induced impacts on streamflow may influence the sea level in the Bay to a minor extent. However, climate change induced water exchange processes in the Bay may have a much bigger influence. Hence, it is suggested that further simulations should be run once the hydrologic regime of the Marmara Sea has been assessed in a broader macro-scale study.
Climate change will change availability, quality and allocation of regional water resources. Appropriate modelling tools should therefore be available to realistically describe reactions of ...watersheds to climate change and to identify efficient and effective adaptation strategies on the regional scale. The paper presents the hydrologic model PROMET (Processes of Radiation, Mass and Energy Transfer), which was developed within the GLOWA-Danube project as part of the decision support system DANUBIA. PROMET covers the coupled water and energy fluxes of large-scale (
A
∼
100,000
km
2) watersheds. It is fully spatially distributed, raster-based with raster-elements of 1
km
2 area, runs on an hourly time step, strictly conserves mass and energy and is not calibrated using measured discharges. Details on the model concept and the individual model components are given.
An application case of PROMET is given for the mountainous Upper-Danube watershed in Central Europe (
A
=
77,000
km
2). The water resources are intensively utilized for hydropower, agriculture, industry and tourism. The water flows are significantly influenced by man-made structures like reservoirs and water diversions. A 33-years model run covering the period from 1971 to 2003 using the existing meteorological station network as input is used to validate the performance of PROMET against measured stream flow data. Three aspects of the model performance were validated with good to very good results: the annual variation of the water balance of the whole watershed and selected sub-watersheds, the daily runoff for the whole period at selected gauges and the annual flood peaks and low flows (minimum 7-days average).
PROMET is used to investigate the impact of climate change on the water cycle of the Upper Danube. A stochastic climate generator is fed with two scenarios of climate development until 2060. One assumes no future temperature change, the other uses the temperature trends of the IPCC-A1B climate change scenario. PROMET is run with both climate data sets. No change in low-flow is detected when no temperature change is assumed. The IPCC-A1B climate scenario results in marked decreases of low-flow at the outlet of the watershed.
The Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus concept postulates that water, energy production, agriculture and ecosystems are closely interlinked. In transboundary river basins, different sectors and ...countries compete for shared water resources. In the Danube River Basin (DRB), possible expansion of agricultural irrigation is expected to intensify water competition in the WEFE nexus, however, trade-offs have not yet been quantified. Here, we quantified trade-offs between agriculture, hydropower and (aquatic) ecosystems in the DRB resulting from maize irrigation when irrigation water was withdrawn from rivers. Using the process-based hydro-agroecological model PROMET, we simulated three maize scenarios for the period 2011–2020: (i) rainfed; (ii) irrigated near rivers without considering environmental flow requirements (EFRs); (iii) irrigated near rivers with water abstractions complying with EFRs. Maize yield and water use efficiency (WUE) increased by 101–125 % and 29–34 % under irrigation compared to rainfed cultivation. Irrigation water withdrawals from rivers resulted in moderate to severe discharge reductions and, without consideration of EFRs, to substantial EFR infringements. Annual hydropower production decreased by 1.0–1.9 % due to discharge reductions. However, the financial turnover increase in agriculture (5.8–7.2 billion €/a) was two orders of magnitude larger than the financial turnover decrease in hydropower (23.9–47.8 million €/a), making water more profitable in agriculture. Irrigation WUE was highest for EFR-compliant irrigation, indicating that maintaining EFRs is economically beneficial and that improving WUE is key to attenuating nexus water competition. Current maize production could be met on the most productive 35–41 % of current maize cropland under irrigation, allowing 59–65 % to be returned to nature without loss of production. Maize priority areas were on fertile lowlands near major rivers, while biodiversity priority areas were on marginal cropland of highest biodiversity intactness. Our quantitative trade-off analysis can help identifying science-based pathways for sustainable WEFE nexus management in the DRB, also in light of climate change.
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•Trade-offs in the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus are quantified in Danube basin.•Process-based modelling of maize irrigation scenarios assuming river water extraction.•Revenue gain in agriculture exceeds loss in hydropower; land can be saved for nature.•Moderate to severe river runoff reduction; environmental flow maintenance pays off.•High agricultural (irrigation) water use efficiency reduces nexus water competition.
This paper presents a novel system that produces multi-year high-resolution irrigation water demand maps for agricultural areas enabling a new level of detail for irrigation support for farmers and ...agricultural stakeholders. The system is based on a scalable distributed Deep Learning (DL) model trained on dense time series of Sentinel-2 images and a large training set for the first year of observation, and fine-tuned on new labeled data for the consecutive years. The trained models are used to generate multi-year crop type maps, which are assimilated together with the Sentinel-2 dense time series and the meteorological data into a physically based agro-hydrological model to derive the irrigation water demand for different crops. To process the required large volume of multi-year Copernicus Sentinel-2 data, the software architecture of the proposed system has been built on the integration of the Food Security TEP and the data-intensive arpngicial intelligence Hopsworks platform. While the Food Security TEP provides easy access to Sentinel- 2 data and the possibility of developing processing algorithms directly in the cloud, the Hopsworks platform has been used to train DL algorithms in a distributed manner. The experimental analysis was carried out in the upper part of the Danube Basin for the years 2018, 2019 and 2020 considering 37 Sentinel-2 tiles acquired in Austria, Moravia, Hungary, Slovakia and Germany.
U brojnim svjetskim gradovima broj stanovnika kontinuirano raste, a za iste to predstavlja velik problem obzirom da im infrastruktura nije bila dizajnirana da omogući kretanje tako velikog broja ...ljudi.
Uslijed navedenog dolazi do zagušenja u prometu u urbanim područjima, zagađenja okoliša, rasta potrošnje neobnovljivih izvora energije, ali i
porasta buke koju stvaraju vozila. Posljednjih godina se, kao moguće rješenje na sve veću potražnju za mobilnošću stanovništva, upravo javlja
suprijevoz odnosno sustav dijeljenja automobila koji se temelji na načelu održivog razvoja. U proteklim desetljećima cestovna mreža se u većini država širila kao odgovor na sve veći broj automobila koje stanovnici posjeduju. Zbog porasta broja automobila uz gotove jednake parkirališne kapacitete kao u desetljećima ranije, većina osoba se sve češće susreće s problemom pronalaska parkirnih mjesta u urbanim središta. Navedeno, ali i troškovi koje uz sebe veže posjedovanje osobnog automobila, utjecali su na značajan porast popularnost suprijevoza u svijetu. Svrha ovog rada je istražiti stavove korisnika o suprijevozu u Republici Hrvatskoj. Carsharing organizacije omogućuju korisnicima kratkoročnu uporabu vozila iz voznog parka, ali i utječu na
smanjenje potrebe za posjedovanjem privatnog vozila. Rezultati provedenog primarnog istraživanja pokazali su kako iako je prisutan na hrvatskom tržištu, suprijevoz koristi manji broj ispitanika. Ispitanici
koji se koriste uslugama suprijevoza kao razloge navode manje troškove,
izbjegavanje problema s traženjem parkinga te davanje doprinosa zaštiti okoliša. Pozitivno je što najveći
dio ispitanika koji još nisu koristili usluge suprijevoza navodi kako će koristi usluge istog u budućnosti.
The urban population has been growing and this is the current issue many
cities are facing, especially those not planned in the way as to provide for the commuting of continuously growing number of people. This leads to traffic congestions in urban areas, pollution, over-use of
non-renewable energy resources and noise pollution vehicles create. The possible solution to this problem of mass transportation may be found in the form of carpooling i.e. the system of car-sharing based on the principle of sustainable development. In the last decades, buying and owning a car has become more affordable, this resulting in the development of road networks that have been overloading urban areas. However, due to the facts that parking has become an issue in these areas, and that costs of owning a personal car have been increasing, carpooling has been gaining on popularity throughout the world. In line with that, the purpose of this paper is to investigate users' attitudes
on carpooling in the Republic of Croatia. The findings have shown that, although they are present on the Croatian market, a smaller number
of the participants in the research use the services carpooling. The respondents who do use carpooling services state that the reasons for doing so are lower costs, avoiding the search for a parking spot and contributing to protecting the environment. The positive side to is that many respondents that have not yet used this service state they will be doing so in the future.
The Danube River Basin.
Hydrological modelling of large, heterogeneous watersheds requires appropriate meteorological forcing data. The global meteorological reanalysis ERA5 and the global forcing ...dataset WFDE5 were evaluated for driving an uncalibrated setup of the mechanistic hydrological model PROMET (0.00833333°/1 h resolution) for the period 1980–2016. Different climatologies were used for linear bias correction of ERA5: the global WorldClim 2 temperature and precipitation climatologies and the regional GLOWA and PRISM Alpine precipitation climatologies. Simulations driven with the uncorrected ERA5 reanalysis, the WFDE5 forcing dataset, ERA5 bias-corrected with WorldClim 2 and ERA5 bias-corrected with a GLOWA-PRISM-WorldClim 2 mosaic were evaluated regarding percent bias of discharge and model efficiency.
Simulations yielded good model efficiencies and low percent biases of discharge at selected gauges. Uncalibrated model efficiencies corresponded with previous hydrological modelling studies. ERA5 and WFDE5 were well suited to drive PROMET in the hydrologically complex Danube basin, but bias correction of precipitation was essential for ERA5. The ERA5-driven simulation bias-corrected with a GLOWA-PRISM-WorldClim 2 mosaic performed best. Bias correction with GLOWA and PRISM outperformed WorldClim 2 in the Alps due to more realistic small-scale Alpine precipitation patterns resulting from higher station densities. In mountainous terrain, we emphasize the need for regional high-resolution precipitation climatologies and recommend them for bias correction of precipitation rather than global datasets.
•Global forcings ERA5 and WFDE5 suitable for process-based hydrological modelling.•Good model efficiencies and low runoff biases with uncalibrated PROMET simulations.•Bias correction of ERA5 precipitation essential in heterogeneous Danube basin.•Best performance of ERA5 bias-corrected with Alpine GLOWA and PRISM climatologies.•GLOWA and PRISM outperform global WorldClim 2 climatology in complex Alpine terrain.
Prispevek analizira dostopnost javnega potniškega prometa ( JPP) v Sloveniji glede na oddaljenost postajališč od prebivališč in pogostnost voženj. S povezovanjem podatkov iz Centralnega registra ...prebivalcev in podatkov o ponudbi JPP smo z geografskim informacijskim sistemom izračunali delež prebivalstva, ki živi v 500- in 1000-metrski oddaljenosti od postajališč z zadevnim številom dnevnih voženj. Avtorji so analizirali prostorske razlike v dostopnosti do postajališč JPP, na podlagi podatkov o gostoti prebivalstva so prepoznali glavne vrzeli v ponudbi JPP in analizirali razmeščanje novejše poselitve v navezavi na današnje omrežje JPP.
Cestovne prometne nesreće jedan su od najčešćih uzroka tjelesnih oštećenja i smrtnosti mladih ljudi. Prema Svjetskoj zdravstvenoj organizaciji 29 % osoba strada u automobilu što čini gotovo trećinu u ...ukupnom broju smrtno stradalih osoba u cestovnom prometu. Zastupljenost mladih vozača starosti do 24 godine uvelike je viša u odnosu na ostale dobne skupine u statistikama nesreća i stradanja sa smrtnim ishodom. Prema Europskoj komisiji faktor rizika mladih vozača je dva do tri puta veći u odnosu na faktor rizika vozača s većim prometnim iskustvom. Mladi vozači u svojoj životnoj dobi dobrog su zdravstvenog stanja, vole društveni život, skloni su testiranju vlastitih granica, većoj konzumaciji opijata od ostalih dobnih skupina, kršenju pravila te promjenjivom i rizičnom ponašanju. Navedene čimbenike i faktore rizika mladi prenose i u automobil, bilo kao vozači ili putnici, što zajedno s neiskustvom u dinamičnom prometnom okruženju čini mlade vozače najrizičnijom skupinom vozača. U skladu s time, u ovom radu, provedeno je anketno istraživanje sa svrhom stjecanja uvida u stavove i ponašanja u prometu mladih vozača na području Šibensko-kninske županije.
Road traffic accidents are one of the most common patterns of physical damage and mortalityamong young people. According to the World Health Organization, 29% of people die in cars, whichconstitutes almost a third of the total number of people killed in road traffic. The representation ofyoung drivers under the age of 24 is much higher compared to other age groups in accident andfatality statistics. According to the European Commission, the risk factor of young drivers is two tothree times higher than the risk factor of drivers with more traffic experience. Young drivers at theirage are in good health, like social life, tend to test their own limits, consume more opiates than otherage groups, break the rules, and engage in volatile and risky behavior. The aforementioned factors andrisk factors are transferred by young people in cars, either as drivers or passengers, which, togetherwith inexperience in a dynamic traffic environment, makes young drivers the riskiest group of drivers.Accordingly, in this work, a survey was conducted with the purpose of gaining insight into the attitudesand traffic behavior of young drivers in the Šibenik-Knin County
Pojava pandemije bolesti COVID-19 izložila je svjetske turističke sektore i nacionalna gospodarstva izazovima s kakvima nisu bila suočena u normalnim uvjetima. U novonastaloj situaciji, zbog ...ograničavanja kretanja ljudi, domaći gosti postali su nositelji turističkog prometa na svim turističkim tržištima, a od sveukupnog broja turista u Republici Hrvatskoj samo oko 10 % čine domaći gosti. Međutim, za razliku od većine konkurentskih zemalja, za vrijeme smanjene potražnje hrvatski turistički sektor pokazao je otpornost zbog blizine velikih europskih tržišta iz kojih je Hrvatska lako i brzo dostupna automobilom, poput Italije ili Njemačke. U ovom radu analizirana je dinamika noćenja turista u Republici Hrvatskoj i u konkurentskim joj zemljama (Španjolskoj, Grčkoj i Portugalu) od 2018. do 2021. godine. Analiza kretanja obujma turističkog prometa te reakcija i otpornost turističkih sektora navedenih zemalja na promjene uzrokovane pojavom pandemije, glavni je predmet ovoga istraživanja sa svrhom pripreme turističkog sektora odnosno nacionalnoga gospodarstva na slične globalne izazove u budućnosti. Usporednom analizom turističkog prometa prije, za vrijeme i nakon razdoblja smanjene potražnje, između Hrvatske i odabranih konkurentskih zemalja utvrđeno je kako je turistički sektor reagirao u razdoblju smanjene potražnje. Budućim istraživanjima potrebno je odgovoriti kako strateški razvijati sektor turizma da bi bio otporniji na ovakve izazove i kako stvoriti preduvjete za povećanje udjela domaćih gostiju u strukturi turista koji posjećuju Hrvatsku, kako razvijati oblike turizma koji su se pokazali otpornijim u vrijeme pandemije i kako razvijati infrastrukturne kapacitete za individualni, obiteljski i elitni, a ne masovni turizam. Na razini nacionalnih gospodarstava potrebno je pronaći načine kako ograničiti odnosno smanjiti udio nesigurnih, tercijarnih djelatnosti koje u kriznim situacijama prve negativno reagiraju.
pritisaka. Iako se disrupcije u opskrbnim lancima u pravilu javljaju povremeno, imaju
velik utjecaj na porast troškova te stvaranje snažnih poremećaja u poslovanju. Pandemija
COVID-19 uzdrmala je ...svjetski opskrbni lanac kako ranije nije viđeno. Na tako
iznenadan šok adekvatno nisu mogla odgovoriti čak ni poduzeća s uspostavljenim visoko
kvalitetnim sustavima upravljanja rizikom. Godinama se najveći dio svjetske robne
razmjene odvija pomorskim putem ponajprije zbog učinkovitosti te ekonomičnosti koju
isti nudi. Uslijed pandemije COVID-19 došlo je do značajnijih promjena na tržištu što je
rezultiralo ranije nezabilježenim rastom vozarina u kontejnerskom pomorskom prometu.
Rast vozarina na ovom tržištu predstavlja globalni problem jer će se isti, razmjerno o
uključenosti pojedinih potrošačkih dobara u opskrbne lance, odraziti i na njihove cijene.
Oporavak cjelokupnog svjetskog gospodarstva je ugrožen ovako visokim vozarinama u
kontejnerskom pomorskom prometu, a i dodatno ugrožava stabilnost opskrbnih lanaca.
Stoga je u fokusu ovog rada volatilnost vozarina na kontejnerskom pomorskom tržištu
koja se javila uslijed pandemije COVID-19.
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